Technical Analysis is mixed here but leans toward another push up tomorrow before rolling over and going down again. However, since the futures trade afterhours and premarket the SPX could simply open down first and make a lower low then today’s low. Then I’d expect the charts to get oversold and the market to turn back up later in the day.
It could go either way but if Tuesday goes up early I think it’s a short as it has high odds of turning back down. If it goes down first then later in the day it should turn back up. Either way we’ll likely see whatever the first half of the day do turn the other way the 2nd half of the day. Not much help there but charts are mixed as I said.
However, “if” it gaps up I think there’s high odds of a move down until Thursday or Friday before a low is put in. Therefore a good swing trade could present itself Tuesday if we go up first?
Also, both metals are affected by the dollar rally. It’s near a double top on the weekly chart in the 86.81 area. Once it hit’s that resistance and pulls back the metals should rally. Just note that while the dollar is very overbought on the weekly (and daily) chart that double top area will act like a magnet for it which will keep downward pressure on the metals until that top is hit and a pullback happens for the dollar.
But as you can see from that chart the rally last Friday was strong and was probably caused from a short squeeze of a lot of bears’ stop’s just above the 86 area. With such a big move up there should be some sideways consolidation this week before another push higher I’d think.
That means GLD and SLV could chop sideways making a bear flag all week before another drop happens for them as the dollar makes a bull flag and breaks up again with the goal of hitting the double top on the weekly chart. It doesn’t look like it wants to stop right now and I wouldn’t short it until it pierces that 86.81 level by a hair.
Gold and Silver are both in a bear market and should continue lower for awhile. Silver broke down from support 2 weeks ago, which now is resistance. If was from the double bottom area around 17.70 or so. It could easily fall to the 15 area.
GLD hit it’s previous double bottom area last Friday. It’s right on the support line and will likely breakdown this week. It really doesn’t have any big support just below it. Over the coming month it could fall to the 90 area where support will come in from the 2008/2009 area.
Short term it could (should) chop around this week trying to hold that double bottom area (now a triple bottom) in the 114.70 area. Once it breaks the first level down of minor support is 113.08 from 7/28/2010. After that it doesn’t have much until the 105 area.
I still don’t like what I’ve seen. Still need to see a final washout with RSI hitting around the 30 level while 20 EMA crosses below the 50. Today’s action has the 20 flattening so no cross is possible until a continued decline. So now looking for a low Tuesday at the earliest. Still following a certain little analog but lagging a bit.
The SP closed closer to its high. According to the analog, it should have finished at the midpoint of its daily range. The NYA and Nasdaq looked more in line with the analog.
Next week might need to see the indices finish down and close below certain weekly MAs before a bounce can ensue. 3 down weeks off the top.
The euro, aussie, and crude oil were all down on the day which didn’t make sense considering the action in the stock indices. When the bounce comes, they should all rally.
Geccko, they should recapture the 1955-1960 SPX level tomorrow (Friday) as they need to close the weekly chart out at or above the rising trendline from 2011 as shown here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
I don’t think it will break this week, but next week is another story. Not sure on it but I suspect it will breakdown by next Friday’s close and be below that trendline. That’s the first sign that the bull rally has ended.
I was looking for a low on Friday/ tomorrow but things haven’t quite played out as they should have. So more likely a low on Monday concurrent with a 1000 new lows on the NYSE. Things are getting quite extreme on a certain little indicator with its component needing to make a big splash first for a low to hold.
This rally (which should last into the close today) isn’t likely to hold. I expect another move down tomorrow take out the bulls that went long at the current low today. The bottom isn’t in yet and shouldn’t appear until late next week. We should pierce through the 1905 SPX cash and 1890 ES futures before we start a nice rally that should last for a week or so.
Yep..even Bernie Madoff would have been embarrassed by that crock of shit BS “screen shot” online acct statement. Now Madoff was the master of providing realistic phony account value statements and online account value updates to clients and prospective clients.His phony client online account updates are/were legendary. Client logs on and sees his or her account steadily rising in value complete with blinking lights and lots of profit “green”. – “Damn this Bernie is a brilliant money manager,our account just keeps getting bigger” – Some accounts we’re “showing to be up many millions of dollars in profit. Of course in truth..not only was there zero profits….the was also no principal left and no “real” account that ever existed. All customer accounts were very sophisticated on line illusions to “placate” investors. Easy Peazy these days with computer trickery. Thats how he got suckers to fork over $50 Billion bucks of Ponzi scheme dough . Madoff fooled and conned the best of the best there for about 30 years…..sealing his deals with with totally bogus realistic looking online account statements.
Someone told me that he did some backtest study that said Wednesday’s only put in the high or low for any given week 7% of the time. Since we are below Monday and Tuesday’s low odd’s are 93% that we’ll see a lower low Thursday or Friday.
Looks like we are going to hit the 1935 before this week ends. Possibly a small bounce tomorrow and another flush out to hit that low? Getting pretty oversold short term and seeing positive divergences. And we need to recapture 1960 on the weekly close or we break the 2011 rising trendline… and that’s VERY Bearish!
Technical Analysis is mixed here but leans toward another push up tomorrow before rolling over and going down again. However, since the futures trade afterhours and premarket the SPX could simply open down first and make a lower low then today’s low. Then I’d expect the charts to get oversold and the market to turn back up later in the day.
It could go either way but if Tuesday goes up early I think it’s a short as it has high odds of turning back down. If it goes down first then later in the day it should turn back up. Either way we’ll likely see whatever the first half of the day do turn the other way the 2nd half of the day. Not much help there but charts are mixed as I said.
However, “if” it gaps up I think there’s high odds of a move down until Thursday or Friday before a low is put in. Therefore a good swing trade could present itself Tuesday if we go up first?
Also, both metals are affected by the dollar rally. It’s near a double top on the weekly chart in the 86.81 area. Once it hit’s that resistance and pulls back the metals should rally. Just note that while the dollar is very overbought on the weekly (and daily) chart that double top area will act like a magnet for it which will keep downward pressure on the metals until that top is hit and a pullback happens for the dollar.
http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/286102634;
When it pulls back the metals should rally. It’s at extremely levels now as seen in this daily chart. http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/286102634;
But as you can see from that chart the rally last Friday was strong and was probably caused from a short squeeze of a lot of bears’ stop’s just above the 86 area. With such a big move up there should be some sideways consolidation this week before another push higher I’d think.
That means GLD and SLV could chop sideways making a bear flag all week before another drop happens for them as the dollar makes a bull flag and breaks up again with the goal of hitting the double top on the weekly chart. It doesn’t look like it wants to stop right now and I wouldn’t short it until it pierces that 86.81 level by a hair.
Gold and Silver are both in a bear market and should continue lower for awhile. Silver broke down from support 2 weeks ago, which now is resistance. If was from the double bottom area around 17.70 or so. It could easily fall to the 15 area.
GLD hit it’s previous double bottom area last Friday. It’s right on the support line and will likely breakdown this week. It really doesn’t have any big support just below it. Over the coming month it could fall to the 90 area where support will come in from the 2008/2009 area.
Short term it could (should) chop around this week trying to hold that double bottom area (now a triple bottom) in the 114.70 area. Once it breaks the first level down of minor support is 113.08 from 7/28/2010. After that it doesn’t have much until the 105 area.
Can you tell me your view about gold and silver market?
Thanks
I still don’t like what I’ve seen. Still need to see a final washout with RSI hitting around the 30 level while 20 EMA crosses below the 50. Today’s action has the 20 flattening so no cross is possible until a continued decline. So now looking for a low Tuesday at the earliest. Still following a certain little analog but lagging a bit.
The SP closed closer to its high. According to the analog, it should have finished at the midpoint of its daily range. The NYA and Nasdaq looked more in line with the analog.
Next week might need to see the indices finish down and close below certain weekly MAs before a bounce can ensue. 3 down weeks off the top.
The euro, aussie, and crude oil were all down on the day which didn’t make sense considering the action in the stock indices. When the bounce comes, they should all rally.
Geccko, they should recapture the 1955-1960 SPX level tomorrow (Friday) as they need to close the weekly chart out at or above the rising trendline from 2011 as shown here: http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787
I don’t think it will break this week, but next week is another story. Not sure on it but I suspect it will breakdown by next Friday’s close and be below that trendline. That’s the first sign that the bull rally has ended.
I was looking for a low on Friday/ tomorrow but things haven’t quite played out as they should have. So more likely a low on Monday concurrent with a 1000 new lows on the NYSE. Things are getting quite extreme on a certain little indicator with its component needing to make a big splash first for a low to hold.
This rally (which should last into the close today) isn’t likely to hold. I expect another move down tomorrow take out the bulls that went long at the current low today. The bottom isn’t in yet and shouldn’t appear until late next week. We should pierce through the 1905 SPX cash and 1890 ES futures before we start a nice rally that should last for a week or so.
Yep..even Bernie Madoff would have been embarrassed by that crock of shit BS “screen shot” online acct statement. Now Madoff was the master of providing realistic phony account value statements and online account value updates to clients and prospective clients.His phony client online account updates are/were legendary. Client logs on and sees his or her account steadily rising in value complete with blinking lights and lots of profit “green”. – “Damn this Bernie is a brilliant money manager,our account just keeps getting bigger” – Some accounts we’re “showing to be up many millions of dollars in profit. Of course in truth..not only was there zero profits….the was also no principal left and no “real” account that ever existed. All customer accounts were very sophisticated on line illusions to “placate” investors. Easy Peazy these days with computer trickery. Thats how he got suckers to fork over $50 Billion bucks of Ponzi scheme dough . Madoff fooled and conned the best of the best there for about 30 years…..sealing his deals with with totally bogus realistic looking online account statements.
Someone told me that he did some backtest study that said Wednesday’s only put in the high or low for any given week 7% of the time. Since we are below Monday and Tuesday’s low odd’s are 93% that we’ll see a lower low Thursday or Friday.
Looks like we are going to hit the 1935 before this week ends. Possibly a small bounce tomorrow and another flush out to hit that low? Getting pretty oversold short term and seeing positive divergences. And we need to recapture 1960 on the weekly close or we break the 2011 rising trendline… and that’s VERY Bearish!