Trin @ 1.85 and VIX up @ 16.40 keeping the door to “down” elevator open still here with an hour to go but they really,really really don’t like the Dow below 17,000 here.- I play both SPY and SPX puts but I won’t get short with either again until the Dow starts closing below 17K. We’ll never get the SPX to 1950 or lower or SPY to 195 unless “that” starts happening.
Lookin a little better here again. Back down over a 100 Dow pts sitting right on Dow 17,000 again as I type. Oops there is 17,008 again. Hell of a battle here. 🙂
Nothing to do but wait right now…. stuck in a triangle. I would short again “if” we gap up Tuesday morning to hit the falling trendline of resistance coming in around 1985 SPX area today. At that point I’d expect today’s low to be broken as it’s very unlikely that the market will rally up further through that trendline after the opening gap.
Failure to gap up would put it in “no man’s land” where it’s not a high odd’s short or long. So I’d doing nothing and just wait for a better setup. However, we also putting in a bottoming formation (but I don’t think the bottom is in yet), so a long around this Thursday (or Friday morning) will likely be a good trade.
They should squeeze the bears for another week from that long I’d think and possibly top out in mid-October (in the middle of the Oct 8th-17th Legatus meeting) and then start the bigger drop I believe. I suspect we’ll put in a double top before dropping. Possibly just a few points above or below the 2019 SPX high.
I have a “possible” FP on the SPY of 202.45 from last Thursday. We never went that high so it’s likely a real FP. The timing of “when” it will be hit is of course unknown but I think it’s around mid-October. This could look very close to the 2011 market move in August.
Crazy fight here to hold Dow 17,000. Again..for about the 20th time in 2 months. Thought we might have that Dow 17K battle finished,and we could finally get some serious downside action kick in high gear early this morning..but obviously not. Not yet.Very irritating.
I think it’s all about this weekly rising trendline of support (http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787;). When we have a close below that lower support line the market should start the 20% correction… possibly a 50% crash. No way to know for sure on the crash but the correction is coming soon I’m sure of.
My take for the real short term is : Fridays rally didn’t end our somewhat crazy roller-coaster like current pullback this past week We had 2 big triple digit ‘up’days…but 2 triple digit ‘down days this week..yet closed NET down for the week.The Dow started the week off up almost a 150 pts higher than Fridays close….and the SPX started the week up almost 30 pts higher than Fridays close at 1982 from Last Mondays open at 2009…just a shade under the ATH close.More notable is Wednesday’s rally produced an SPX close at 1998. Yesterdays rally gave a much lower close for the week at 1982. I say this is trickier than just assuming because we got one of this weeks big rally days on Friday..that that puts and end to anymore downside here and move right back up to the highs here soon. I think we’ll dip back below this last weeks lows on all the key indexes. Thats 1966.22 by the way for the SPX. This is not some drama queen crash/ensuing P3 bear market observation…just saying I think we may be in a murky range for now. Current super bullishy types of course will not want to see us start closing much below that recent SPX August 7th low close of 1909.57. Lets just call it a higher than not probability we get a 100 pt SPX range here(2010-1910) for the short term…with a little higher probability we get under the mid point level of the range under this last weeks low SPX close of 1966(ish) on Thursday.
Anybody else here like SPX 1940 minimum this week ?
And I don’t edit posts ever to mitigate wrong calls and try to pathetically cover my ass for future reference,,even when I see the futz about to blow my prediction/opinion out of the water . So even if the futz are up 30 pts Sunday night/Monday morn..this post will be what it is.
From the 1998 SPX bounce high yesterday a 1.618% move down of wave 1 for this wave 3 that we started today puts the low of this wave around 1933 before we bounce for wave 4 up. It could happen tomorrow? I just don’t know?
Or, if this wave 3 down is a 2.618% move of the wave 1 down (2019.26-1978.80—40.46 points) then it’s a 105 point drop from that 1998 high. Either way we should be going down more before we bounce.
How it plays out I’m not sure? It could chop around some tomorrow after the gap down and rally back up some to make some smaller wave 2 or wave 4 up inside the larger wave 3 down. Remember, that wave 3 down should have 5 smaller waves inside it. Sometimes the bounces are so small that you miss them.
So we could have only had the smaller wave 1 down today and the choppy sideways action into the close was the smaller wave 2. If so then we are looking for a smaller wave 3 down tomorrow inside the larger wave 3 down. However, if that’s the wave pattern then it suggests we make a 2.618% Fib move of the larger wave 1 down not the 1.618% Fib points implied above.
I do not know which one will play out as I really can’t count the waves right now as it looks like one big wave down with no real bounces. So the whole wave could be just the first smaller wave 1 down inside the larger wave 3 down. That suggests a smaller wave 2 up tomorrow to close the market green as it should rebound at least 23.6% of the move down from the 1998 high yesterday to the low today at the close or tomorrow morning.
Regardless, I would not be buying and dips anytime soon as we’ve likely just started the first part of the coming crash of 2014!
Trin @ 1.85 and VIX up @ 16.40 keeping the door to “down” elevator open still here with an hour to go but they really,really really don’t like the Dow below 17,000 here.- I play both SPY and SPX puts but I won’t get short with either again until the Dow starts closing below 17K. We’ll never get the SPX to 1950 or lower or SPY to 195 unless “that” starts happening.
Lookin a little better here again. Back down over a 100 Dow pts sitting right on Dow 17,000 again as I type. Oops there is 17,008 again. Hell of a battle here. 🙂
Nothing to do but wait right now…. stuck in a triangle. I would short again “if” we gap up Tuesday morning to hit the falling trendline of resistance coming in around 1985 SPX area today. At that point I’d expect today’s low to be broken as it’s very unlikely that the market will rally up further through that trendline after the opening gap.
Failure to gap up would put it in “no man’s land” where it’s not a high odd’s short or long. So I’d doing nothing and just wait for a better setup. However, we also putting in a bottoming formation (but I don’t think the bottom is in yet), so a long around this Thursday (or Friday morning) will likely be a good trade.
They should squeeze the bears for another week from that long I’d think and possibly top out in mid-October (in the middle of the Oct 8th-17th Legatus meeting) and then start the bigger drop I believe. I suspect we’ll put in a double top before dropping. Possibly just a few points above or below the 2019 SPX high.
I have a “possible” FP on the SPY of 202.45 from last Thursday. We never went that high so it’s likely a real FP. The timing of “when” it will be hit is of course unknown but I think it’s around mid-October. This could look very close to the 2011 market move in August.
Crazy fight here to hold Dow 17,000. Again..for about the 20th time in 2 months. Thought we might have that Dow 17K battle finished,and we could finally get some serious downside action kick in high gear early this morning..but obviously not. Not yet.Very irritating.
1905 ought to be a piece of cake.
http://www.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=SPX&uf=7168&type=2&size=2&sid=3377&style=1013&freq=1&time=8&rand=798035619&ma=1&maval=50&lf=1&lf2=4&lf3=0&height=444&width=579&mocktick=1
I think it’s all about this weekly rising trendline of support (http://stockcharts.com/public/1092905/chartbook/312846787;). When we have a close below that lower support line the market should start the 20% correction… possibly a 50% crash. No way to know for sure on the crash but the correction is coming soon I’m sure of.
My take for the real short term is : Fridays rally didn’t end our somewhat crazy roller-coaster like current pullback this past week We had 2 big triple digit ‘up’days…but 2 triple digit ‘down days this week..yet closed NET down for the week.The Dow started the week off up almost a 150 pts higher than Fridays close….and the SPX started the week up almost 30 pts higher than Fridays close at 1982 from Last Mondays open at 2009…just a shade under the ATH close.More notable is Wednesday’s rally produced an SPX close at 1998. Yesterdays rally gave a much lower close for the week at 1982. I say this is trickier than just assuming because we got one of this weeks big rally days on Friday..that that puts and end to anymore downside here and move right back up to the highs here soon. I think we’ll dip back below this last weeks lows on all the key indexes. Thats 1966.22 by the way for the SPX. This is not some drama queen crash/ensuing P3 bear market observation…just saying I think we may be in a murky range for now. Current super bullishy types of course will not want to see us start closing much below that recent SPX August 7th low close of 1909.57. Lets just call it a higher than not probability we get a 100 pt SPX range here(2010-1910) for the short term…with a little higher probability we get under the mid point level of the range under this last weeks low SPX close of 1966(ish) on Thursday.
Anybody else here like SPX 1940 minimum this week ?
And I don’t edit posts ever to mitigate wrong calls and try to pathetically cover my ass for future reference,,even when I see the futz about to blow my prediction/opinion out of the water . So even if the futz are up 30 pts Sunday night/Monday morn..this post will be what it is.
We are in the white wave 2 up inside yellow 3 down in this chart from yesterday (http://screencast.com/t/N4MpYvin5e) Next is the 3 of 3 down…
From the 1998 SPX bounce high yesterday a 1.618% move down of wave 1 for this wave 3 that we started today puts the low of this wave around 1933 before we bounce for wave 4 up. It could happen tomorrow? I just don’t know?
Or, if this wave 3 down is a 2.618% move of the wave 1 down (2019.26-1978.80—40.46 points) then it’s a 105 point drop from that 1998 high. Either way we should be going down more before we bounce.
How it plays out I’m not sure? It could chop around some tomorrow after the gap down and rally back up some to make some smaller wave 2 or wave 4 up inside the larger wave 3 down. Remember, that wave 3 down should have 5 smaller waves inside it. Sometimes the bounces are so small that you miss them.
So we could have only had the smaller wave 1 down today and the choppy sideways action into the close was the smaller wave 2. If so then we are looking for a smaller wave 3 down tomorrow inside the larger wave 3 down. However, if that’s the wave pattern then it suggests we make a 2.618% Fib move of the larger wave 1 down not the 1.618% Fib points implied above.
I do not know which one will play out as I really can’t count the waves right now as it looks like one big wave down with no real bounces. So the whole wave could be just the first smaller wave 1 down inside the larger wave 3 down. That suggests a smaller wave 2 up tomorrow to close the market green as it should rebound at least 23.6% of the move down from the 1998 high yesterday to the low today at the close or tomorrow morning.
Regardless, I would not be buying and dips anytime soon as we’ve likely just started the first part of the coming crash of 2014!
No bounce coming… gap down tomorrow