Another interesting thing I have noticed about their games, is like today, they ran up above the weekly person's pivot, and they made that support, how did they make it support, each time it came down they turned it on a dime at that spot. Got me thinking whats going on, anyways when they probed the above pivots and eventually launched it into the 30min opening range, is that they were weakening the resistance, when they came back down to consolidate and build orders, it was a big tip of the hand. Anyways in summary it looks like they break through a level then make it support and build orders, so if they gun higher resistance levels they have support if they fail, and they probe the levels they want to break as to slowly bring those orders out onto the market as to not cause any major disturbance to the game plan, then they trigger the stop run and off we go.
Yeah, that was also another good reason to sell off. But, light volume allowed them to keep the market up. It's almost as if they have told all the big institutions to “stay out of market” until ?…
You and I both know that if the big boys come back into this market, they will be selling! Look at the last 3 months or so, every large volume day was a DOWN day, not UP.
When volume returns, I believe it will be selling… not buying! But until then, they can control the market and keep it afloat with the late day buy programs.
A pop to 1150 SPX could very well happen, but I don't see any move higher holding. Where ever it goes up too, it should come back down and close lower then the pop open.
If we don't sell off hard tomorrow then Monday should be the big down day. However, if we sell off Friday, then Monday would most likely be a “pause day”… where we would go slightly up to flat.
It's hard to guess how the institutions will read the news tomorrow, but I believe a short term high is already in, or will be on a pop tomorrow morning.
After a sell off in the next 2-3 weeks, I do believe that it is possible to rally up to the 61.8% fib level, somewhere between 1250-1300 SPX (depends on the time frame you chart it from).
So, yeah… I'm kinda on the same page of thinking as you. How high is anyone's guess? But a 5-10% correction is coming… asap!
Thanks for the info… but, I wasn't basing it on the current pain, but more on the amount of calls vs. puts at 39 and 40. If I were a market maker, I'd close it at 38… but what do I know? Nothing obviously!
Another interesting thing I have noticed about their games, is like today, they ran up above the weekly person's pivot, and they made that support, how did they make it support, each time it came down they turned it on a dime at that spot. Got me thinking whats going on, anyways when they probed the above pivots and eventually launched it into the 30min opening range, is that they were weakening the resistance, when they came back down to consolidate and build orders, it was a big tip of the hand. Anyways in summary it looks like they break through a level then make it support and build orders, so if they gun higher resistance levels they have support if they fail, and they probe the levels they want to break as to slowly bring those orders out onto the market as to not cause any major disturbance to the game plan, then they trigger the stop run and off we go.
Yeah, that was also another good reason to sell off. But, light volume allowed them to keep the market up. It's almost as if they have told all the big institutions to “stay out of market” until ?…
You and I both know that if the big boys come back into this market, they will be selling! Look at the last 3 months or so, every large volume day was a DOWN day, not UP.
When volume returns, I believe it will be selling… not buying! But until then, they can control the market and keep it afloat with the late day buy programs.
Red
Well I think what would have made the market sell off hard would be outstanding job numbers, with the anticipation of the FED rising interest rates.
Maybe but hard to see with the price action in financials and earnings season next week that it would sell off.
A pop to 1150 SPX could very well happen, but I don't see any move higher holding. Where ever it goes up too, it should come back down and close lower then the pop open.
If we don't sell off hard tomorrow then Monday should be the big down day. However, if we sell off Friday, then Monday would most likely be a “pause day”… where we would go slightly up to flat.
It's hard to guess how the institutions will read the news tomorrow, but I believe a short term high is already in, or will be on a pop tomorrow morning.
After a sell off in the next 2-3 weeks, I do believe that it is possible to rally up to the 61.8% fib level, somewhere between 1250-1300 SPX (depends on the time frame you chart it from).
So, yeah… I'm kinda on the same page of thinking as you. How high is anyone's guess? But a 5-10% correction is coming… asap!
Red
Pop may be bigger than you think. Then we correct a small bit and then on to 1220ish.
Hmmmmmmm………………
Maybe? But I think it will fool us all… My forecast is for the 1103 area to be hit by opx, but that is probably just wishful thinking.
Just hoping for 1150 tomorrow so that I can load some Jan 115 puts. I think we will close at 1120-1130 on OPX. JMHO
Thanks for the info… but, I wasn't basing it on the current pain, but more on the amount of calls vs. puts at 39 and 40. If I were a market maker, I'd close it at 38… but what do I know? Nothing obviously!
Hi Red,
Though the current pain on USO is 38, I doubt it will go that low by OPX. I am thinking 39-40. The current pain on SPY is 112.