No Follow Through Today As Light Volume Rules...
In order to confirm the down move from Friday we needed a lower low to be put in today. That didn't happen as light volume floated the market higher as I expected it might. I posted on my weekend post that Monday could be an UP down, and sure enough... it was!
The volume was less then the 200 million or more needed to produce a DOWN day, coming in at around 160 million shares traded on the SPY. What does this mean? It means that the market could trade sideways, up, or down tomorrow. No direction has been chosen yet.
We may simply chop around here all week, as it's hard to get any real selling when the Fed keeps manipulating the market by selling the dollar. On the other hand, the market can't seem to get over the 109.68 spy to 110.38 (Great Wall of China) area on a conformation close. That means 2 days above it, or below it, with the 2nd day closing higher or lower then the first day.
I'm still bearish as the daily charts are pointing down, as well as the weekly and many other indicators that are now bearish. I will hold my position as I believe the market will break to the down side some time this week. I do expect some bigger volume later this week, as there is lots of news out this week.
I'm still inclined to believe that the news must be really positive to get a big rally going, and on the other side... a really negative news event to cause more selling. Another news event like Dubai could come out this week. I seriously doubt that "everything is ok now". Traders aren't stupid. They are waiting for something really good... or really bad to happen.
Otherwise, they will simply day trade above and below the Great Wall of China... until something happens to cause a big break out! I think it will be something negative, and that's how I'm positioned. I continue to believe that a sell off needs to occur before any successful rally above the great wall will happen.