Friday, July 19, 2024

Going In Circles…

The market seems to be like a dog chasing his tail... going nowhere fast!

dog-chasing-tail

What can I say that hasn't already been said?  The market is still in the Twilight Zone.  No direction has been chosen, so it could go either way at this point.  Raymond Merriman has a "Turn Date" window of the 18th-21st... which direction is unknown.  Do we have Santa rally from these ridiculous highs, or do will sell off a little?  I don't know at this point.

Fund managers will most likely buy and sell some stocks to "pretty up" their portfolios for their clients.  That's typical for the end of the year, (which might also be the main reason behind the Santa Rally?).  But, at these highs... maybe they would rather sell and lock in the gains?  After all, they've had a big rally up from the March lows.

I think a pullback next week to 105 spy, and then a rally to the end of year would be the logical thing to do.  But, what do I know?  I'm just a lowly peon looking for crumbs from my master... Lord Godman Sachs.  (Kidding of course).  Needless to say... I'm not expecting that to happen, but it should!

From a technical standpoint, we had a black candle... which means a big reversal could be coming!  Will it come next week?  Maybe, but I can't see anymore then a 5% correction down, and then back up to end the year.  We may not get any sell off, as the light volume makes it easy to control the market.  I'm not expecting much, but if we rally to the 112.30-112.50 spy level this week (possible intraday level of 113.00 even number hit), I will go short for next week.

The only way I can see it happening is for some big volume to come back into the market, which the PPT (or whoever) can't control.  Then the technicals would take over and a nice sell off would occur.  Maybe another scare like Dubai, or something else to spook the market before Christmas.  Otherwise, everyone will be off for the holiday's and the only trading left is being done by computers.  (Maybe my previous post of Forest Gump playing ping pong should have been the 80's computer game Pong?)

Pong

If not, then I'll probably just sit it out until next year.  I just can't go long at these level.  It's like being the last person to arrive at the party... chances are good that you'll be going home alone (or waking up the next morning beside someone that you don't recognize).

Red

Red
Author: Red

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flyboy08
flyboy08
14 years ago

LOL! This game is rigged, just like the market:-)…

Sitting out is a good idea….if I see a scalp, i'll take it, but I'm going to enjoy NYC and the Holidays by noon if it looks like a ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ day.

I wish you a very Happy Holiday Red!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  flyboy08

Happy Holiday to you too Flyboy. Have a good time in NYC. Thanks for stopping by.

Red

The Unknown Trader
The Unknown Trader
14 years ago

Hi Red,
You probably know a lot more about the market than I do, but it just seems like some people with “big money” are selling these “good news” events. Every time we threaten to break out of the range, selling comes in.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Yes they are… but, it takes time to unload large blocks of shares. That's why we have this sideways movement. Every rally up by retail traders is sold into. However, you can only sell a little bit at a time.

It's almost over, as January should bring in some volume into market place. It will be harder for the PPT (or whoever) to hold up the market then. Technical's should start to work again… which will be pointing down then.

Thanks for stopping by, and enjoy the game of Pong. I can't even beat it. Man I suck!

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Why can't the 'technicals' be pointing up starting in Jan? Not saying they will, but what if they point up?

By the way, what 'technicals' are you referring to, Red?

P.S. Best wishes to your mother. Tell her to start taking 6000 IU of Vit D3 daily. It can't hurt. It can only help. Google Vit D3.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Weekly chart is rolling over. Daily hasn't decided yet. The dollar is clearly bottom (for now) and should go up for a few months. The market is up against huge resistance from a downward sloping trend line (on Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts), that dates back from the October 2007 high.

I'm sure you could make a bullish case too, be the overhead resistance it huge, and a correction is needed before anymore advance. (IMHO).

Seasonality wise… January – March is bad for the market, just like December is positive for the market. I'm not saying we can't go up to the 61.8% fib level around 1228 (spx), as no one knows… but a correction is needed first.

Red

Thanks for the info for my mother.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I am not making bullish or bearish case for Q1. Taking it one day at a time, as it unfolds. IMO, it is best to have no bias when you read the tape. If you have a bias, you tend to look for patterns/signals that support your bias while subconsciously ignore the counter patterns/signals. I paid a lot of tears to learn that. LOL

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Agreed, I'm just here make some money. If it's on the long side, then I'll go long. But, I believe it will mostly be on the short side next year. We'll see. Best of luck to both of us.

Turbo Tim
Turbo Tim
14 years ago

After some additions as u wanted GS:

Bernake – Person of the Year – Time Magazine

Geithner – Beautiful person of the Year- http://www.businessinsider.com/tim-geithner-mak

Obama – Nobel Peace Award

Madoff – Investor of the Year

Tiger Woods – Husband of the Year

Goldman Sachs – Company of the Year

Terrance Watanabe -… Gambler of the Year -http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125996714714577317.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Turbo Tim

Wow… What I could do with $127 million dollars? It wouldn't be gambling at Vegas…that's for sure. Oh no, I'd gamble in the market. LOL!

Turbo Tim
Turbo Tim
14 years ago

After some additions as u wanted GS:

Bernake – Person of the Year – Time Magazine

Geithner – Beautiful person of the Year- http://www.businessinsider.com/tim-geithner-mak

Obama – Nobel Peace Award

Madoff – Investor of the Year

Tiger Woods – Husband of the Year

Goldman Sachs – Company of the Year

Terrance Watanabe -… Gambler of the Year -http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125996714714577317.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Wow… What I could do with $127 million dollars? It wouldn't be gambling at Vegas…that's for sure. Oh no, I'd gamble in the market. LOL!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Agreed, I'm just here make some money. If it's on the long side, then I'll go long. But, I believe it will mostly be on the short side next year. We'll see. Best of luck to both of us.

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