Tuesday, June 25, 2024

All Quiet Before The Storm…

all-quiet-before-the-storm

We came within a Dragon's Breathe of touching 113.80 spy today.  The intraday high was 113.68, and could be "close enough"?  Tomorrow we should be at the center of the eye of the storm, or we could have been there today?  I see tomorrow being flat to slightly down, assuming that the government fudges the ADP jobs numbers as I expect them to do.

If they don't, and the numbers come out bad, then "bolten' down the hatches" as the market should dump hard! However,  I don't really think that will happen tomorrow.  I do think we will start heading down, but more in a controlled manner.  Remember, the money tree is still growing dollar bills, so I DON'T think they will suddenly become honest and tell us the real numbers... on any news they release.

We could, and that means only intraday, push up just a hair more to reach that 113.80 level (even pierce through it to an even number of 114), but anymore upside is severely limited.  Put it this way... we are now 99% full, don't count on finding a seat!  The movie is about to start, so sit down (get your short positions setup) and watch the movie.

First target is the lower trend line, and gap fill around 1103 spx (starting maybe tomorrow, and lasting till Monday or so of next week).  Then I think we will go slightly back up into OPX next week, and finally a push down again after OPX... and continuing until the end of the month or the beginning of next month.

Red

Red
Author: Red

Related Articles

293 COMMENTS

0 0 votes
Article Rating
293 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Kmoney
Kmoney
14 years ago

And what does limited mean? 1200?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Kmoney

Limited means that we are hitting some pretty heavy resistance at the 113.80-114.00 SPY level, and rarely can the market break through without a pullback first.

Think of it like a soldiers coming up again some heavy artillery. They would fall back and re-group before attacking again.

That level has multiple trend lines intersecting it, which means that's it's really tough to go through on the first time hitting it.

A pullback to the 1080 (SPX) area would give the market time to rest and try to rally up again. I think 1103 area is first, then 1080 by the end of the month or early next month.

Red

Kmoney
Kmoney
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have the spy doing an A-B-C up to about 116.
One of us is right………………..or we are both wrong lol!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Kmoney

If your move down to about 1080 is the “B” leg, then your “C” leg will follow back up… but to much higher then 116. Or, the “B” move down is to 1103 by about Monday, and back up to 116 by OPX. Then a move down to 1080 by the end of the month or early February. So, we both could be right?

steveo77
14 years ago

Great thought…calm before the storm. Keep it simple. Don't let all the squiggles cloud your view from 3000 feet

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  steveo77

Yeah Steveo… Too many lines on a chart will just confuse everyone… including the person drawing it! There is a downward sloping trendline from the 2007 high to about the 114 spy level, as well as the top trendline of an upward sloping channel.

Bottom line… too much resistance to go through on the first attempt. A pullback is needed first.

steveo77
14 years ago

Great thought…calm before the storm. Keep it simple. Don't let all the squiggles cloud your view from 3000 feet

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Yeah Steveo… Too many lines on a chart will just confuse everyone… including the person drawing it! There is a downward sloping trendline from the 2007 high to about the 114 spy level, as well as the top trendline of an upward sloping channel.

Bottom line… too much resistance to go through on the first attempt. A pullback is needed first.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

If your move down to about 1080 is the “B” leg, then your “C” leg will follow back up… but to much higher then 116. Or, the “B” move down is to 1103 by about Monday, and back up to 116 by OPX. Then a move down to 1080 by the end of the month or early February. So, we both could be right?

spot_img

Latest Articles

s2Member®