Friday, May 24, 2024

A Non-Event Day…

man-resting-in-a-hammock

It seems that the Fed's out-smarted the bears again, as the rate increase yesterday didn't affect the market at all today.  You could have just slept in, and you wouldn't have missed a thing.  It's funny how well they plan out every move they make, with such precision.  So what's the next move you ask?  The opposite of what you expect of course.

I'll try to piece this together for my weekend post, but I don't think the market is ready to rollover yet.  I'm looking for more of the same old grind sideways to up next week too.  Yes, I think we will rollover and take a breather first.  But after that, we are probably going to go a little higher.

Now keep in mind, I'm a bear by nature, but I'll trade both ways if required.  However, I'm really more interested in waiting for the next leg down to occur.  I really don't like to trade this choppy market as I just get beat up too much.  I'm a swing trader, not a day trader, and although some days I'm able to chat here frequently on the blog...other days I'm just too busy.  So if don't response immediately, it means I'm too busy that day, but I will get to your question when I can.

Not much else to add... it was a boring option expiration day pretty much.  Enjoy your weekend folks.  I certainly need too, as I've be slapped around all week by this big ugly bull.  Time for a nice rest now.  Come back late Sunday for more thoughts, predictions, and crystal ball rubbing.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

$SPX Daily currently has 4 consecutive higher closes than opens

5 out of the last 6 times the $SPX exhibited 4 consecutive higher closes than opens, it had a 5th consecutive higher close than open

The last 2 times the $SPX exhibited 4 consecutive higher closes than opens, it went on to 6 consecutive higher closes than opens before a 1 day reversal

Keep in mind the $SPX is in pursuit of it's gap @ 1127.38

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

That means it shouldn't take a breather, and sell off a little until Tuesday or Wednesday. If it goes higher again for 2 more days, it should be able to reach 1127.38.

Then sell off a little on Wednesday-Friday, but keep the close above 1116 on Friday to close the month of February out. That would leave March as the ? month. Would they try to push it on up to 1159-1160 to take out stops above 1150, or just start the big wave down from the 1127 high?

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

next week is going to be most important week we've had in a while, given the monthly setup and potential weekly setup

There's a ton of different inputs all converging here

some clues to watch will be if they run the stops above 1150, but AAPL doesn't print a marginal new high.

Remember I pointed out a couple weeks ago that AAPL didn't make a new low on 2/5/2010 while the $SPX did.

The action in the $RUT is going to be very interesting given it's monthly setup.

I'd also like to see the $VIX hit 16.26 as indicated many months ago.

The monthly close is as important as the monthly open is, so the open on March 1st will be a marquee event.

Scraoppy
Scraoppy
14 years ago
Reply to  sundancer390

Sundancer

So your looking for double bottom in Vix around 16.26? would this be ideal short set up in your opinion?

thanks

moon
moon
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

fits with long monday short wed pattern lol

moon
moon
14 years ago

thanks for your efforts red next week is going to be interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  moon

Yeah moon… It's going to fool a lot of people, just like the run up from 104 fooled people. I don't think anyone thought we could go as high as we have. We should have entered a wave 3 down last Friday when we were in the 1075-1080 area.

But, someone intervened and gapped up on Monday and stopped the fall from happening. Something is up, that is for sure.

moon
moon
14 years ago

thanks for your efforts red next week is going to be interesting.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Yeah moon… It's going to fool a lot of people, just like the run up from 104 fooled people. I don't think anyone thought we could go as high as we have. We should have entered a wave 3 down last Friday when we were in the 1075-1080 area.

But, someone intervened and gapped up on Monday and stopped the fall from happening. Something is up, that is for sure.

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

$SPX Daily currently has 4 consecutive higher closes than opens

5 out of the last 6 times the $SPX exhibited 4 consecutive higher closes than opens, it had a 5th consecutive higher close than open

The last 2 times the $SPX exhibited 4 consecutive higher closes than opens, it went on to 6 consecutive higher closes than opens before a 1 day reversal

Keep in mind the $SPX is in pursuit of it's gap @ 1127.38

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

That means it shouldn't take a breather, and sell off a little until Tuesday or Wednesday. If it goes higher again for 2 more days, it should be able to reach 1127.38.

Then sell off a little on Wednesday-Friday, but keep the close above 1116 on Friday to close the month of February out. That would leave March as the ? month. Would they try to push it on up to 1159-1160 to take out stops above 1150, or just start the big wave down from the 1127 high?

moon
moon
14 years ago

fits with long monday short wed pattern lol

sundancer390
sundancer390
14 years ago

next week is going to be most important week we've had in a while, given the monthly setup and potential weekly setup

There's a ton of different inputs all converging here

some clues to watch will be if they run the stops above 1150, but AAPL doesn't print a marginal new high.

Remember I pointed out a couple weeks ago that AAPL didn't make a new low on 2/5/2010 while the $SPX did.

The action in the $RUT is going to be very interesting given it's monthly setup.

I'd also like to see the $VIX hit 16.26 as indicated many months ago.

The monthly close is as important as the monthly open is, so the open on March 1st will be a marquee event.

Scraoppy
Scraoppy
14 years ago

Sundancer

So your looking for double bottom in Vix around 16.26? would this be ideal short set up in your opinion?

thanks

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