Housing Market Improving?

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houses-underwater

Contracts for pending sales of previously owned homes unexpectedly rose in February, a survey from the National Association of Realtors showed, a rise the group said may be attributed to home buyers taking advantage of a soon-to-expire tax credit.

The Realtors said its Pending Home Sales Index, based on contracts signed in February, rose 8.2 percent to 97.6 from a downwardly revised 90.2 in January.  (Full Story Here... don't waste your time).

Blah, Blah, Blah... the housing market is improving... let's dance!

mortgage-broker

The media can spin anything into a positive... can't they?  Believe me, the market didn't rally because of the housing data.  Just another bullish Monday... like the last Monday, and the last Monday, and the last Monday (sorry, the record has a scratch in it... let me move the needle)

The volume was only 97 million shares on the SPY today.  Looking back, it looks too be the lightest day in the last 2 years.  Of course with such light volume, I could've pushed the market up with my $6.66 (from selling my dog, kid's and wife last week... to go short with).

Volume volume volume... without it, the money in your piggy bank is enough to rally the market higher.  They should have just closed the market today, if they weren't going to do any trading in it.  Maybe tomorrow will be the start of the coming down move?  It's just a guessing game at this point.

The market will fall when the government wants it to fall... no sooner, no later.  It's really that simple.  Looking back at the chart I posted on the weekend report, we do see that on just about every previous sideways trading range, the market popped higher just before the sell off began.

I thought that Thursday's new high was enough of a pop higher before the selling, but now it seems like it still wants to go a little higher?  Was today's new high enough?  Maybe?  I don't know?  With the 1191-1193 spx level, and the Dow 11,000... just a hair above, it seems destine to go there.

Trying to think like they do is the hard part.  They are most likely trying to figure out what rest of the traders are thinking, so they can fool them and take their money.  So, what does the rest of us retail traders think?  I think most traders are now looking for the 200 ma above, as the next likely target.

And, since every trader has heard the old saying "Sell in May, and Go Away"... that leads me to believe that May will be an up month, which is the opposite of what most people are thinking now.  I also think that most blogs out there are now calling for more UP, mostly saying 1200 plus on the SPX.

Are they going to be right, or will the market fool them?  If they are going to be fooled again, I think it's going to take another "big event" to get the selling started.  What will they stage this time?  When will it be?  Over the coming weekend, or sometime during the current week?  I do feel that they will surprise everyone, and a gap down on some opening day is highly likely.

So for now... we wait patiently for the big surprise to be announced.  Of course if you're not already short, you probably won't get a chance to get in.  You know how they pay that game by now.  I know I've said it before... but we are very very close now.

The Treasury notes rallied up to 4.0 % today... and that's not something the market likes.  A reaction is coming soon.  Remember, looking back at the past 5 times this happened, 2 of the starting days were on a Wednesday, and 2 of the days were on a Friday... with only 1 on a Monday.

That leads me to think that Tuesday will be flat, and if the selling is to start this week... then Wednesday is more likely.   Let's hope the Fed's announce something unwelcome by the market tomorrow, as I'm really tired of this merry-go-around!

Red

203 COMMENTS

  1. What are the big boys saying,we can'y take profit or it will crash,too much fed money ,I think they push until earning,then lets see.Run oil still have 5 gallons cans to store it in.
    I cover today everything,
    now it will fall

    • I agree… the market looks so ripe to fall before opx. I sure hope it does as I'm short and need the spy below 117 to make any money. I think it will fall to the 111-112 area before opx, and then bounce a little.

      Then another fall after opx to 107-108 area, before the summer rally starts back off.

    • Yeah… I'll never buy any 3x etf again. I'll only go short them, through options, as they all eventually fall to zero.

      You can just go short on the bull etf when you think the market is going to fall, or go short on the bear etf if you think the market is going up.

      That would be the only way I would do it again.

  2. my large4 stash is in a 401k cant short or option

    When this starts to roll I think we will have 3 days of volume swings

  3. Carl’s morning call:

    June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1173 – 1185. The ES should reach 1200 in April on its way to 1225 or so.

    1174.50 -1183.75 actual yesterday (9.25 points)
    1177.25 low last night
    1173-1185 estimate for today (12 points)
    1179 currently, so estimate is -6 to +6 from here (neutral)

  4. Sorry I am late, but cleaning toilet and flipping burger are demanding hard work.

    Situation update:

    1. Background : Classic dilemma. Severe adverse market conditions with the runaway train moving again. It is the first week of a new quarter, apparently, the pros are scrambling back into the market. We used to laugh at this kind of chicken shit behavior, ie loading up speculative craps at the beginning of the quarter and selling all the dogs toward the end of the quarter for window dressing. But apparently arguing with (or laughing at) fools does not pay. Never underestimate the power of crowd behavior. Mom is right when she said not to laugh at retards…..

    2. Momentum has turned to slightly positive. It is pointing at prolonged topping process. The danger here is missing the blow off rally into the summer. Toward the end of every bubble, it is just relentless, and mindless hysterical mad dash to the cliff. Trendlines, cycles, oscillators, everything get steamrolled over, together with the accounts of all the shorts. Bears looking for a reprieve to get out while bulls looking for a chance to load up. Both go home empty handed.

    3. How do you position your portfolio under such madness? Use options.

    For example: $100,000 account. SPY May 119 puts @2.55. It will cost 2.27% to go 100% short, and 6.375% to go 300% short. This is a straight put. You can reduce the cost using a spread. What this achieves is that you can go short while limiting your risk to a predetermined level.

    If anyone is interested, I will post the details of the strategy. Otherwise I need to rest up for my nightshifts…..

    • SC, I hope you wash your hands before cleaning the toilets after cooking those greasy burgers. I would love to hear more of your strategy. I am in cash for the time being and have traded options on a limited basis. I am only using a 3x etf for a day trade.

  5. As I write this, USO (oil) is -0.45% while $SPX is +0.05%. The $USD seems to have stopped (or at least suspended) falling, and is rising. I think this will cause at least a pause in the ramp-up, if not a reversal.

  6. Carl hasn't traded yet today.

    He is just now calling for /ES to drop to the 1170 area. He used the word imminent.

    /ES futures peaked (so far) today at 1188, 3 points above Carl's project high for the day. 1170 would be 3 points below his projected low for the day.

    • No way. This market is so Fed fueled – it will not go down until there is some huge unforseen event.

        • I have confidence that he is. Don't worry Earl of, you are not nearly as bad off as me. If the market doesn't go down today, just get out of your position.

          • I have 3% stops today. If they hit, they hit. I figure Carl's target of 1170 (only 15 points down from here) might happen tomorrow, so I'll give it that much time before bailing.

          • Last week, I sold my DRV for 8.73 (a tiny profit). 2 days later, I was kicking myself because it ramped up to 9.01. If we really are near a top, DRV should put in a doji very soon with a long tail. We have step one of a bollinger band sell signal in place on $RMZ. Tomorrow, we need to see a close inside the upper BB, and the following day we need a lower close than tomorrow. I expect a long tailed doji tomorrow in DRV followed by a reversal.

          • I'm playing the weekly BUY-IF signal buying some DRV every day this week. So far, I just want to throw up. The good news is I'm playing this pretty small.

            IYR looks like it just broke out of a congested area, and could run for a while. Bothersome.

    • All I can say is that we have reached 1191. Will it mean anything? I guess we have to wait and see.

  7. Well… we got our 1191.80 on the spx. Now would someone punch this market in the face… and break it's nose while you're at it! Then kick him while he's down too!

  8. today has been a real interesting day playing with probabilities of the current $SPX setup
    The last time we had probabilities like this on the $SPX weekly was back during the 7/16/2007 week

    for those that have been around this rodeo remember back in july 07' the massive bullgasm going on. The week following 7.16.2007 the operators debased the $SPX 4.9%. Took out 14 weeks of gains in 1 week.

    Now digging deeper to try and find the co-relational ritual (1:1).

    $SPX 07' (min:max) 1363.98 : 1555.9 = 14.07%
    $SPX 10' (min:max) 1044.50 : 1191.8 = 14.10%

    as we know from 07' the summer debasement was the final before the blow-off into the fall, the operators told us last week $DJI 11,816 will be the terminal de-leverage pt.
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44783

    and to add more fuel to the fire, $SPX printed 1191 that i was looking for as it is where purple contianment is on the weekly
    http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/44905

      • Interesting – from my horrid math skills I calculate that if the same relationship were to hold from here, we would reach around 1067 which is similar to the SPY number you have mentioned (I think). 9/11 – hmmm.

        • co-relational 11.9% off 1191.80 = 1049.98

          it's 9.54% to the de-leverage pt. of 1078, which makes perfect sense as it gives the operators a 30 pt. range to acquire new inventory into the 1049.98 area

          once the debasement takes out 10% the mind controlled fools will beLIEve the top is in are go all in short right @ the bottom

          • OK, so my math really does suck! So you are saying you think it gets to the 1050 area then? I thought de-leverage meant stopping point? Thank goodness you have saved us from going short there.

          • Monica, if you remember from the last major fake print back in January… it was 1047.28, but the low was actually 1044.50 spx. So, that means that once momentum is going strong to the downside, it will be tougher to stop right at that level.

            So, the harder and fastest (with large volume) that it is going, when it reaches 1078, the further it will pierce it before reversing.

            Although, that 1050 area is a stretch, but that could be possible on a lot of selling pressure.

    • Sundancer – am fascinated by your work – however not sure I understand everything — could u pls share some basics on what you mean by:

      – Max containment and how you get those lines
      – Debasement – assuming you mean a fall coming, but can you explain what you think it is …

      Red – love your blog – crazy busy at work, so just haven't been posting as much – love your posts !!!

      • Hi

        the lines you see on my charts are Moving Averages in sequences of 8.

        Max contain is just a term I use to describe the Teal line in all my charts.

        Debasements are when speculative capital is harvested. The coming debasement will @ a minimum print 1078 $SPX and final terminal pt. between 1049.98 & 1078.

        • Got it – thanks 🙂

          So how do you get the teal line and price points for debasements ?

          Also, what are de-leverage points ?

          Thanks for sharing 🙂

  9. Well, if the pattern does repeat, it looks like we will have one more high before the big plunge. Scary thing though is that if we really do repeat, that big plunge would eventually take us to DJIA 3000 or so. Meanwhile, I like that big red candle between now and that new high. Maybe Red is right that big falls can only come on MWF.

  10. Carl at day’s end:

    1173-1185 estimate for today (12 points)
    1178.25 -1188 actual today (9.75 points)
    Carl was a bit low today again today

    Trades: no trades today

    Grade: C didn’t lose any money

  11. TNA opened down 1.1%. Yesterday’s gap from $55.95 to $56.03 was not filled. Today’s gap was filled. TNA was up 2.3% at the high, and closed up 1.6%.

    We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
    AmericanBulls has TNA with a Confirmed Buy signal yesterday. This trade bought TNA at $56.50, and closed today at $60.13, up 6.4%.

    Volume for TNA today was about average for the past 6 days, but low compared to the average of the past 20 days.

    $RVX (VIX for $RUT) was down 1.7 % today with TNA up 1.6%. No divergence.

    TNA has now been up 5 of the last 9 days. Chop generally, but today added to yesterday’s breakout. Good for TNA.

    The high for TNA today was $60.56, the highest TNA price since November of 2008.

    Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 47 to 56 today. Until today, UO has been below 50 five of the last seven days. Indicates strength for TNA. Good for TNA.

    MACD on the monthly chart crossed over downwards seven days ago, but has moved back up and may cross over to the upside tomorrow. Good for TNA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): today’s black candle crossed below the lower Bollinger band and closed above that band. MACD seems to be topping. Looks like $RVX might rise tomorrow. Bad for TNA.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT: The entire body of the white candle for $RUT was above the top Bollinger Band. Just like yesterday, it looks like $RUT may have topped, but need to watch tomorrow for confirmation. MACD has crossed down, but may be working back up. Unclear.

    Bollinger Bands for $RUT:$RVX ($RUT vs VIX for $RUT): today’s white candle closed above the upper Bollinger Band. The upper Bollinger Band is flat. Looks like we are near a top for $RUT. Bad for TNA, but maybe not right away.

    TNA had a higher high, higher low and higher close – Good for TNA.

    Money flow for the Total Stock Market was $1,003 million flowing out of the market. Bearish – Bad for TNA.

    I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

    Overall, it looks bad for TNA soon, perhaps tomorrow.

  12. The Daily view from Americanbulls

    TNA went from highly reliable BUY-IF signal, to confirmed BUY, and today is a hold. The TNA buy was at $56.50. TNA closed at $60.11, up 6.4% since the buy.

    The candlestick today White Candlestick (normal buying pressure).

    TZA today has a highly reliable SELL-IF. Yesterday, it was a hold, down 7.1%. The buy price was $7.04. TZA closed today at $6.46, down 8.2% since the buy. The candlestick today was a Black Candlestick (normal selling pressure). The last three candlesticks formed a highly reliable Bearish Three Outside Down Pattern.

    Two recent TZA Buy signals have failed and may perhaps serve as a warning:
    Buy at $7.33, sell at $7.14
    Buy at $7.11, sell at $7.05
    Buy at $7.04, now down 8.2%

    For that matter, recent TNA Buy signals (until this last one) have also been uninspiring:
    Buy at $55.36, sell at $55.43
    Buy at $55.69, sell at $55.63
    Buy at $56.50, up 6.4%

    Summary of $RUT based ETFs & a few popular ETFs (Market positive):
    Wait: DRV(-3x), SRS(-2x), RWM(-1x), TWM(-2x)
    Hold: DRN(3x, up 12.9%), DIA(up 0.65%), QQQQ(up 0.8%), IWM(1x, up 2.4%), UWM(2x, up 5.3%), TNA(3x, up 6.4%)
    New Confirmed Buy: URE(2x), IYR(1x)

    Market Transition:
    Highly Reliable SELL-IF: TZA (-3x, down 6.6% )

    Market Negative:
    Wait: SPY
    Hold: DTO(-2x oil, down 15.24%)

    Comment: simply astounding that DTO remains a hold here, down 15%.

    Comment: market more positive than yesterday, 3rd day in a row
    Action for tomorrow: Possible Sell of TZA

    • yeah I'm showing it

      that 628.50 is co-relational to it's ENV 21,21,21 which was 628.72 on that day.

  13. Hi

    the lines you see on my charts are Moving Averages in sequences of 8.

    Max contain is just a term I use to describe the Teal line in all my charts.

    Debasements are when speculative capital is harvested. The coming debasement will @ a minimum print 1078 $SPX and final terminal pt. between 1049.98 & 1078.

  14. yeah I'm showing it

    that 628.50 is co-relational to it's ENV 21,21,21 which was 628.72 on that day.

  15. Got it – thanks 🙂

    So how do you get the teal line and price points for debasements ?

    Also, what are de-leverage points ?

    Thanks for sharing 🙂

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