Special SUNday Video Picture Update...
In this weekend update, I decided to put up some video's showing you where I think we are going next week. Â (Be sure to enlarge the video picture to see everything). I studied many different charts from several different Technical Analysis experts. Â All of them are listed on the blogroll, and I encourage everyone to check out their charts.
I'm simply trying to summarize what I see from looking at their charts, and present it too you in a video format. Â Of course I'm going to agree with some of their forecast and disagree with others. Â It's up to you to figure out if it makes sense to you.
So let's look at one of my favorite chartists, Ron Walker of The Chart Pattern Trader. Â He is quite good, and does daily video's that you all should watch. Â I learned a lot about TA's from his video's, and you can too. Â I've learned most of what I now know from other people's sites. Â I guess that why people put their stuff on the internet... to help teach others. Â Anyway, let's look at what I see from his charts...
So, to summarize again what I'm expecting for next week. Â I expect to fill the gap around the 1115 spx on Monday or Tuesday. Â That's about 112 spy, and it lines up perfectly with this fake print. Â Notice that the date is May 20th, and it is "Real Time". Â Also notice the large spike in the chart, which had 2,040,896 as the volume (you can't see it now). Â It was in the afterhours session of the 20th, and the market was never there during regular hours.
Is this our upside target for Monday or Tuesday? Â Could be? Â Remember, some of these prints could be just late fills from earlier in the day. Â We did trade there on the 19th... but not on the 20th. Â So, just keep that target in mind, but focus on the 60 minute chart, as it's the key to whether we continue selling or start a rally back up. Â I will be looking closely at the daily chart to see if it appears to be hooking back up during Monday and Tuesday's rally.
If it hooks back up, then there is more likely a big rally coming. Â I'll be looking at the 60 minute charts' histogram bars, and the spy and spx actual price. Â If the histogram bars start rolling over and falling, but the market starts trading sideways, or just slightly down, that could be a bull flag form, which would mean that the daily chart is providing support to keep the 60 minute chart lifted up.
I believe a move above 1140 spx would be very bullish, and at that point I would re-think the bearish position. Â I need to see that daily chart hook back up first, before I'll be going long. Â Right now, it's still very bearish.
Let's move on to the 2nd video where I go over Cobra's charts, Shanky, Kenny, Daneric, Â and Tony Caldero. Â Plus, I mention a new website that a friend mentioned that is calling for a Dow 7070 by the end of next week. Â Yeah... that's pretty bearish! Â I'm not going to agree or disagree about that bold prediction, but after seeing a 1,000 point drop in 20 minute happen... anything is possible.
Finally, I want to ask a favor of everyone. Â Please watch one more video...
You can find the link to help here on this site, as well as on Anna's site.
Thanks in advance everyone...
Red
Red, that is not going to fly. Don't ever use the word 'scared' when you are talking about a tough woman!!!! You got a death wish?!
Change that ASAP or you are just pounding more nails to your own coffin.
You really don't know anything about women. lol Give this a rest. She doesn't want to be reminded of this episode. And stop spilling your guts for everyone to see. Where is your pride and backbone? No women would respect that.
Your only route to redemption is to become a super trader. lol So hurry on and go suck up to Sundancer really good, hoping that he will have pity on you and teaches you his methods. LOL
LOL SC…
No, the video stays. I know she is a tough woman, but she trusted me, and I was wrong. It's the trust that I lost that is so important. I was wrong, and I really did pressure her out of her positions. I should have just presented my case, and let her make her own decisions. But I pushed too hard, and for that I'm sorry.
So you were an ass and you screwed up. Ok. What's done is done. Moving on. Just think of what John Wayne would do and copy that. LOL
Well, John Wayne was probably too tough. I don't think most women today would put up with him. He would get slapped in the face a lot, I'm sure. Of course he would then bend the woman over his knee and spank her. LOL.
That wouldn't go over too well today… but thanks for the advice.
sigh… You had better get rid of those conspiracy crap and REWATCH all the John Wayne movies again and again until you finally get IT! LOL
John Wayne would go out and prove that he is a winner and win back the trust he lost!
You had better do the same if you want to retrieve your trading cred card that is currently at the bottom of the manure lagoon. LOL
I just have a lot going on right now SC. Maybe I'm just a little depressed about a lot of thing. The only positive thing was that I closed out my position last week on the plus side.
It will pass in time you know. We have a little family going on here, and we lost Sundancer, and then messed up with Anna. Then their are my own personal problems. I used too have a job, but I'm not sure about that anymore? I might have too trade for a living… sheeesh, that's scary!
Ever seen those kungfu movies where the rookle tries to beg the reluctant master to take him as a student? Well, you get to be the student now. lol Go knock on Sundancer's door and refuse to leave until he agrees to teach you. LOL He may teach you if you sign a NDA and a revenue sharing deal . lol
LOL…
It's probably best that I never learned it, as it might get me in trouble. It's best to stick with TA's and good old fashion gut feeling. I'll be back to my old self soon. Too many things on my mind right now.
I still have to see the doctor about getting this skin cancer removed from my neck. It's not serious or anything, but still something to worry about. It's a round circle about the size of a cap from a magic market, just below my left ear.
The doctor's say it's common, as a lot of people get it on the left side because of driving down the road with their left arm out the window, and left side of their face to the sun. I guess they get it on their right in Europe… LOL
Yike. Sorry to hear that. Had better get that taken care of ASAP. You do not want to give it time to penetrate the epidermis. Survival rate would drop from 99% to 15%! This one you need to close out long before the week before its OpEx. LOL Better close your position when you are still at 99% survival rate!
Red – I think that is probably much more important than trading … take the week off and go get it taken care of ….
First things first !!!
See? Red, Best to give this a rest. We just had someone chiming in, and not knowing the whole story, painted Anna in a bad light.
Agreed… let's drop it.
Is there any news out that would cause the futures to sell off like they are now? I thought we would get a bounce on Monday, but this isn't looking good.
Red, pardon my ignorance, but where do you get futures prices on a Sunday night?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/site/14081545/
T Theory has turned bearish.
Could be a bull flag as long as it doesn't take out 1070ish. Shanghai is up 1.31% as I type this. Take a look at $SSEC on stockcharts and admire that whopping white candle from Friday. If Shanghai prints another big white candle, the quants will take this as a bullish signal, no doubt. I just don't know how high it will go.
I don't know either Dread?
I was thinking about 1115 spx to close that gap, which is about 111.78 spy (I think?), and then the 112.08 spy fake print is telling me that's where they want too go.
EW Guy has about 1100 spx, but either way, I don't see it going up too far on Monday… at least by looking at tonight's futures.
Shanghai is up 2% right now. Looks like massive short covering. I think we could see the same. I guess we'll all know in about 11 hours at the open.
Where do you live at Dread, if you don't mind saying?
Wisconsin, where it was ironically 88 degrees today.
LOL…
It hot here too. I'm up north with family in West Virginia, but my primary address is in Florida. Hot down there too, I'm sure…
88 in Wisconsin? thats alot of melted cheese heads..
Red,
Thanks for putting together the videos, I appreciate the effort you put forth in showing all those traders forecasts.
My outlook is inline with yours as I see the stock indexes moving higher on Monday and putting in a high of approx. 1100, which will set us up for further selling on the downside.
Not so sure about the DOW 7000 though lol.
A chart of my S&P outlook can be found on my website which is of course http://www.Elliott-Wave-Education.com, for those who are interested in a wave analysis of the E-mini contract.
Good luck this week everyone!
Cheers,
EWE.
Thanks EW Guy…
At this point, 1100 is going to be a gift to the Bulls! Maybe 7000 really is in the cards?
Hi Red,
This is my first time here and I am very impressed with your work. I too have only been trading for a year but you are so much farther head than I am.
This past week at Trade To Win I saw where Keirsten was talking about your fake prints and tonight in your video you showed one [June 25: 7300]. Could you tell me where I could learn more about these and where I should look for them. I uses stockchart.com but I take it these fake prints happen only in the AH markets, correct? Also is there a link on your blog to the Wilshire chart that you showed in your video? That was very interesting.
Ok one last question, I promise! 🙂 Where can I find Anna so I can donate? I too am a big animal lover. Thanks Red. Keep up the good work.
http://hotoptionbabe.com/
Thanks Steveo77
Anna's website is Hot Option Babe, and it's listed here in my blogroll. She would greatly appreciate it, I'm sure. The donate link is here on this site… just to the right a little, and up the page.
The fake prints are not supposed to be found. So, I couldn't tell where to catch them. You just have to keep you eye open for them, should they show up somewhere.
The Wilshire chart was caught by someone else, and sent to me. It was just blind luck on that one…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
Very nice. Thanks Leo for answering all my questions. Will check back tomorrow for your next post. 🙂
RDL, just back from Tokyo, love your new blog layout. Will be posting some good stuff methinks
Thanks Steveo…. so how was Tokyo? Not too far for you, since you live in Hawaii. Must be nice to never have to worry about freezing cold weather, or snow. I'm jealous… LOL
Tokyo was very interesting. Will post pix and thoughts.
This is the official start of my study on SocioEconomicAnthropolgy (SAE).
Fancy title… I hope it pays well. Sure sounds like fun. Me and SC are just assistant janitors at McD's on the late shift, but we'll be moving on up soon… right SC?
Moving on up… to the East side… LOL
Good for you. Hope my tax dollar is not funding that……
Obama gave me $1M to rant…..lol
By the way gang, the link to the site I'm talking about in the video's about that is calling of DOW 7070 by the end of the week is…
http://www.baminvestor.com
and their twitter feed is…
http://www.twitter.com/baminvestor
Add that to your “following” list, as they might be on to something? I really thought 988 spx would be the bottom, as it's the lower moving average on the monthly chart.
But right now, I would throw out the idea of Dow 7070 as this market is really looking sick right now. Those computer bots could cause a total collapse, as they seems to be running the market now… not human beings anymore.
A copy of the chart they have on their site.
http://www.screencast.com/t/MjcyMWIzM
I just was told about their website on Saturday, so I didn't even browse though it yet. I just read their twitter feed, and that was one bold call about 7070 dow by the end of the week.
I'll be going short again on Monday or possibly Tuesday, and I'll stay short until I see some what happens when we tag the 20 month moving average on the monthly chart around 988 spx.
I don't like the long side, as I play options and the vix going down while the market goes up, would kill my profit. I'll probably just sit on the sidelines in cash,until I see the dust settle.
A rally will come, but another sell off is coming first. How low is anyone's guess? I think at least the 20 MA on the Monthly chart, for starters.
By the way, was that chart free, or did you subscribe to their service?
Free sub till May 31! Hurry!
lol
I think they need to update their charts. Maybe their service is directed toward long term investors, as that doesn't work well with us swing traders.
They have been in MARKET CRASH mode since Oct 09, all the way through.
Had you traded options on that, you would be swinging alright… at the end of a noose.
They use EW + fractal. Don't know enough about their record. But that crash call since Oct 2009 is not kosher.
Good reason to stick with what I know already. My TA tells me we will bounce at 988 spx area. After that, I'll re-evaluate the charts.
Red,
Good Morning. I see SC already answered your question. They have a free membership till May 31. Once inside you will find you do not have access to everything, a premium membership is needed. I noticed the last time the blog was updated was May 19th. I have my doubts about this site. Guess we will know by the end of the week on their call. I like your call better. The testing the 988 area.
I wouldn't bet on a 7070 Dow next week. The market is very oversold, near the point of capitulation, and after that will rally big-time after a bit of a fight getting over the principal moving averages.
This correction is based on dollar strength, which is ridiculous. It is almost over.
Forgot to mention in my post about possible scenarios these next few days that we may have a feint to the downside, say 1067, before a rally, if any.
The important thing to bears is that SPX stay below about 1120. It can either go down from here, run to 1100, run to 1120, or do cartwheels. If it goes up, buy additional inventory.
The upside within this range is totally unpredictable. Red, I hope you don't get caught empty-handed today. If you can get back in where you got out, great.
The analogy is skipping a stone on the water. You're pretty sure it's going to sink, but at what moment is anyone's guess. I wouldn't bet on the stone staying up in the air.
Totally agreed Rip. I have a feeling today will be an up day but I am staying with my positions. Yes, I did get hurt badly on Friday for taking additional risk (stupid) but I have done well by sticking with my positions over the past few weeks.
We're going to be starting bullish, at least, so I am easing into more June puts. A little at 1090 if premiums ease off enough, more at 1010 and the rest at 1112.
well rip, we just got to 38 on the vix. lets see what happens.
Zstock was looking for 33 vix before she goes short again. Maybe that's about the gap fill level around 1115 spx, and 112.08 spy, that I'm expecting?
ok.
I'll be subscribing to your feed and I hope you post again soon.
Hi Good morning everyone, I just rescued 2 kittens from a sewer drain (someone tossed them) arrrrrrrghhhhh and have found them a home, but the girl works @ Pappa johns and has no $$$ so I am footing the bill for everything shots, exam, deworm/tests/ spay/neuter (I will be broke at this rate) if anyone finds it in there heart to donate red (nicely) has a link here or I will have it on HOB soon (today) thanks in advance…these babies would have died in there.
Gooooood Mornin NY….either i'm getting older or I had some crappy mexican food last night…getting tough to get up any more…ok so I threw my dart at the board this morning and it comes up market down S2=103.93…let see if that works…
Good morning BigBad…
I'm still expecting an up day, although it sure did struggle last night. We'll see how high it can make it today I guess.
I'm seeing today being a pullback day from Friday. Then Tuesday being up.
We will see.
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: I still think that the market will drop into the 1030-40 range before turning upward. My range estimate for today is 1050-1080. Once the low has been established I think the ES will begin a rally that will take it to 1300 and higher.
1070 – 1186.75 range last night (16.75 points)
1050-1080 estimate for today (30 points)
average actual range last 10 days has been 25.4 points
1077 currently, so estimate is -27 to +3 from here (wildly bearish)
still dancing around containment
Yeah, I was hoping for a little higher move, so I could get back short again, but right now it's looking pretty weak. I'll wait awhile, to see what the rest of the day brings.
If we break containment (108) or get up to your fake print, then get short. Otherwise, hang tight.
I think we will get our pop by the end of the day. Lot's of churning around this 108 spy level. I'm patient, and will wait for a squeeze to happen first.
K. I'm not so sure but we'll see.
Monica, what containment level is 108? Thanks
As far as I know, that was our prophet's number! But it could have changed by now for all I know! On the SPY that is.
Thanks Monica. You are right its around 108 on spy level.
Mon / Ashail – how are you getting the number for 108 – can u share pls ?
Failed three times, I don't think too many more re-dos.
bought SSO 35.65
I'm assuming that is a short term trade Wendel?
not really, at this time anyway.
I'm planning on a new high and trying to position myself for that.
seems like everyone is which makes me wonder.
Good luck on that Wendal…
Charts say another low is coming first.
Out of BGU. I will be going short around 1090 SPX.
I'm not going to pick a level to go short at, as time is what I'm looking for instead of price level. I'll wait until all the charts are overbought again.
I am thinking if it crosses 1095, then I will wait till 1110. Maybe even I go long for 10 points 🙂
Don't go long for 10 points. That is suicide. Although don't listen to me 🙂
VIX down and market down. Cobra states the statistically the market will move up the next day, if they both close down. Could be bullish Tuesday, and then bearish the rest of the week.
or just a cheap time to buy options!
Hi Red,
Great video much shorter then your first one 🙂
Good luck to us all I'm sure we will get a really good short entery as the bulltards push it back up.
Thanks Newbear….
Wouldn't it be a shocker if I actually made correct forecast? LOL
You were right about the sell off last week 🙂
can't be that easy newbear.
It never is but we try.
i know – sadly it's our life mission. But, I think I will move onto greener pastures.
If you look at the 10 minute chart (or 15 minute chart), you will see and inverse head and shoulders pattern, with 2 left shoulders, one head at 105.64 spy low, and now 2 right shoulders that have formed.
Once it breaks out, the upside target is about the gap fill level of 111.76 spy. That's my idea shorting target, should we get there?
i don't know how much value i put in TA but time will tell.
Patterns do fail sometimes, so it was the right call for you to stay short and weather out any possible upside swings. The market will likely make another lower low by the end of this week.
i am done trying to predict the market. as far as i can tell, there is only one person who could.
Nice job on the video. i see a perplexing few days. i took profits on Friday and bought back a smaller position at lows on shorts.
i too am looking for a bounce but as you pointed out along w/ chart trader oscillators are still pretty neg except on 60.
I really expected a follow through on Fridays action. NASDQ never touched bottoms and is the leader now.
Yes Jim, I agree. The fact that the Nasdaq didn't put in a lower low, and neither did the SPY, that is also a sign that we haven't but in a bottom yet.
I just looked at the 60 minute, 30 minute, 15 minute, and 10 minute charts in my Think or Swim account. There is a downward sloping trendline that is keeping this market from advancing.
It's riding the top trendline of this channel. It's unlikely to push through today. Which means that it will either have too gap above it tomorrow, or fail and continue selling off.
It's very bearish right now, as I really expected a gap up this morning. Not a huge one, but something to get out of this channel. The 60 minute charts are looking to be overbought soon, which means that tomorrow could be a down day… unless the market can gap up out of the channel?
Any false prints to the upside? I think Anna got some.
I haven't seen any clues either way yet… I'm beginning to think that this is all the upside we are going to get. If the market doesn't have some good news to cause a gap up tomorrow, so it can get out of this channel it's trapped in, we could have more selling tomorrow.
I am surprised the VIXES, vix and rvix are down 8-9.5% in a weird day.
leads me to think the eod pop will materialize
It's looking like it's trying to break free from this downward sloping trendline now. I'm still looking for a push up today or tomorrow, and then I will go short again.
We may dance around the line for a while. i do not have good volume numbers on daily. But i am getting the feeling that some selling distribution is picking up.
i may add some small short positions to be safe
The 10 minute chart shows that most of the selling volume was in the morning, and now the volume has died off a lot. I'm still waiting in cash for now.
VIX is comatose in the locker room…
or it could mean the opposite – VIX way down but market not way up, why not?
It means that we have not yet run out of sellers, while some one big is buying in the background. Either that big entity runs out of money and stops buying, in which case selling pressure will resume, or we run out of sellers, and there will be a big rip up.
What if that buyer is the PPT……….
For Whatever its worth here is an excerpt from my morning Nenner report.
S&P/Nasdaq
No change in outlook
We continue to be negative on most markets
As shown on the charts sent on Sunday, most world markets are down because of negative cycles
We still have a low projected later in June, and continue to stand aside
We wanted to go long call spreads on Goldman Sachs, per our intraday update last Friday – only where the net debit in the two positions is around $2.50
That is our only long position
This trade is based on a possible cycle low for GS
The S&P got close to our downside price target of 1033 before the bounce
There is still time left to see that downside target
Sector
Based on the Wave count that we sent on Sunday, we could see a bounce in Gold and Silver
probably up to 1199 and 18.04, respectively
Based on cycles shown on the XAU and Gold, we feel that it is too early to go long
A close below the support line around 1140 for Gold will be more negative
Crude
Crude got close to our downside price target of $67.90 (July)
Cycles are still down for a few weeks
A close for July Crude above $71.80 will be a signal NOT to be short, short term
Nat Gas
Gas continues in the trading range, but will now give a short term buy signal on a close above 4.16 (July)
US Bonds
Cycles are now up into Oct
Not everyone bought the 10 year at around 4%
It is difficult to find the right entry level right now
Only a close for the 30 Year below 123.17 and a close for the 10 Year below 120.21 will be negative
However, this is only short term
We are bullish on the Bonds
Bunds
We continue to be bullish on Bunds
Cycles are up
We could see 129.65, as long as there is no close below 127
Euro
We still can see some bounces for another week
Longer term, our downside price target continues to be 118
A good low is projected only by July
I think we'll see VIX 33 area tomorrow, and another push higher on the market. I'd like to see the gap window closed a 111.78 spy, but it might not go that high?
A gap up open tomorrow would be good for the bears, and that means they plan on taking it back down fill the gap. The move we just had, left a gap at 1087.95 spx, which will also be filled at some point in time.
Whether that is today, tomorrow, to later in the week is unknown. But they always go back a fill gaps at some point, and it' usually when they get close to it.
That's why I believe the 111.78 spy gap will be filled, as it's like a magnet right now, and the market want's to go there. If it makes it there, it will be the perfect spot to go short.
Well, just a fast as I typed that, the market dropped and filled the gap up at 1087.95 spx. LOL
The $VIX is down a lot., even though the market is slightly red. Some one big is buying. I think the trendline will break.
I think a lot of retail investors feel the same as you — they expected a big gap up, they didn't see it, so maybe they're getting out.The $VIX is down a lot., even though the market is slightly red. Some one big is buying. I think the trendline will break.
I agree with you Dreadwin. There is no real selling volume here, which tells me they will go higher tomorrow and fill that gap. They are just churning out the weak hands right now.
The biggest mystery to me is this. Since you all admire Sundancer's work so much, yet no one bothers to try to clone his charts? Happy to be given fish but no one cared to learn to fish?
Better to sit and watch paint dry.. LOL
Money has been flowing stealthly into Finance, Tech, Foeign, and Small stocks all week last week, and accelerating since 10am last Thursday. Such (broadbased accumulation + panic selling) almost always = one big eye in the storm. Gonna be painful trying time for the bears. Good if you are a masochist.
http://screencast.com/t/YmZmZGNmNm
Congratulations! You are the new prophet then! LOL
Folks, salvation is here. You have your new prophet now. Praise Allah, Jesus, Buddha and Odin!!!
LOL
Nice …. does this work on other timeframes too ?
I've only done the daily, but you can certainly mimic his SMAs in other timeframes.
Looks like we don't go much of anywhere today then!
Sorry – I misinterpreted this as a fake print. Now I see you were trying to replicate the lines. Kudos to you!
Diablos – can you explain how exactly to do this? Can I do it on Ameritrade? It looks like your bottom line is where he thinks the market will bottom (low 990s – yours is 989)
Hi,
I'm just plotting 'Simple Moving Averages'. I've indicated the length next to each average so the dark green at the bottom of the chart is 400 SMA. I'm sure your Ameritrade software can do this.
Hope it helps.
Yep – SC – thinking of doing so … but no idea where to start as we just knew they were MAs … I asked which Mas multiple times but didn't get an answer …. any clues ?
I answered your q yesterday. 🙂 Sorry I didnt get to it on Friday.
Yep – I saw that one … the q is whether we can replicate the other ones too ?
I don't know. I didn't look into it. I think that hourly teal line is the most useful one.
I would like to see your back up.
i looked carefully at the money flow over the last two weeks in financials,,XLF, QLD and IWM and do not find evidence of your assertion and in fact find selling with the possible exception that tech fared the bests of all.
I use a proprietory indicator to measure money flow. The moneyflow indicators in public domain are not very useful. It is either they are useless or I am too stupid to get anything out of them. LOL
Not everyone admired Sundancer's insane pointless bullshit.
LOL
The thing is, if people would just draw some colored lines of MA's, it would still beat the crap out of the daily mad orgy of grasping straw in the air. That is the point I am trying to make there.
The point you aught to be making is that people can do what they want, and it's not for you to decide what they should or should not be doing.
Pointing out the existence of better ways is not the same as deciding which route to take. Some of us have this crazy insane altruistic instinct to want to spare others from repeating the mistakes and misery they have suffered. I guess some of us just don't and thus unable to empathize.
If you say what you are doing — your ideas — with some reference later to how well (or poorly) they worked — that is a helpful contribution.
To seek to control others is simply evil.
I have no interest in sharing the fruits of my labour.
But I am interested in sharing pointers on how people can plant and harvest.
I am proud to be labelled as evil then. LOL
Earl, you are nuts. This hallucination about control and evil is not a whole lot different from the talks about the illuminati, stargate at the seabottom, sun rituals, emissary from the 'operators'. It is all delusional paranoia.
Yes, you are right SC. We should all figure it out for ourselves. But if it were so easy, we wouldn't be so admirable of his work. Before everyone goes and criticizes him, you might wait to see how the cards play out. And, remember, he was trying to help us. He never asked any of us for any information. I may be the only believer but so be it.
Like everything ese, useful info is often found with lots of noise and useless materials mixed in. The key is to sort out the good stuffs from the noise.
The whole point of learning is to sort out the useful and discard the not useful stuffs.
I am not interested in criticising him or any particular poster. Well, except for Red! LOL That is b/c his purpose in life is to serve as an example for others! LMAO
My point is, some of his work is useful and that people should have learned those. Simple stuffs, like the so called teal line on the hourly chart. There is nothing magical about that line. It is basic TA 101.
Yes, the teal line is simple. But his numbers are not.
Disclaimer: Not deciding what you should or should not do. Listen to me at your own risk.
LOL now, we have the legal disclaimer in place, onto the meat.
Plot the teal line. Watch where it is pointing. Plot some other baby teal lines (ie with shorter periods). Watch where those are pointhing. Watch where the price is pointing. Watch where all those are, in relation to each other. Then add in some basic knowledge on how to interpret ma's. Voila! You are your own prophet. lol
You're not the only believer… I am too. But, this blog is open to hear everyone's opinions. I'm going to stick with what I know, and that is that I will go short when the 60 minute gets overbought again.
LOl. But red, you also KNOW that you shouldn't listen to yourself! LOL
Like Peggy Bundy told Al Bundy, “Al, you are a moron. Whatever you think of doing, just do the opposite of that.” LMAO
Sundancer just gives an opinion like everyone else. you do not nor would anyone here expect you to follow anyone exclusively.
I for one like a lot of opinions which i generally find screw me just as much as my own opinions.
generally I find when a multitude are in congruence their headed in the right direction. With the exception of those that are forever bulls or bears.
That's interesting Jim – I find that usually when everyone is thinking the same thing, they are wrong!
You are probably right.
Ha!
Looks like bulls are getting ready for another charge.
We could see a sell-off this afternoon if we're lucky.
Impossible to call, isn't it? All I know is I am not exiting my positions unless we get above 112.50 or into the low 990s. Actually, at the end of today, that resistance number should be lower.
Can we all just get along?! Enough of this psychological nonsense. Let's all just believe who we want to believe and get on with it!
Actually, I was kind of enjoying this. This is my idea of a good time 🙂
But I will let it go.
Hee heee. Well, I believe if we get under 108 the selling will begin. Shoot me for being a believer!
I have TZA today, but it seems headed no where.
The quiet before the storm. Maybe not today but soon.
The $VIX continues to stay under 37, and equities are basically flat.
Gang,
We are a mixed up bunch of strange people here. We certainly have a lot of different belief's and views on everything from the stock market to ufo's, and the Illuminati.
And you all know that I open this blog up for and type of discuss, but Monica is right, we should just all try to keep our focus on making money in the market.
I don't care if you all disagree with each other, just don't get into a fight about it. Remember, we still have trolls to worry about, and if there is anyone that needs an ass whipping… it's them!
🙂
Ha Red! I am more mixed up than anyone. Anyway, may we all make money!
I think the reason the market could push up too much higher today, was the fact that the 15 minute chart was overbought and needed to reset itself lower before another push higher.
It's below the zero line now, and should roll back up into positive territory by the end of the day, allowing for one more push higher tomorrow… as long as the 60 minute chart is still going up.
I think we will see our high in the market before noon tomorrow, and then the 60 minute and 15 minute charts will roll back down to the downside, and be aligned with the daily, weekly and monthly.
The selling should last until Friday I suspect. Should be a wave 3 of 3 down. Of course I don't know how high we will go up tomorrow, but we need a gap up open to help the bears out, as that means the gap will want to be filled later.
Plus, it will get the market up higher, so it will fall further down later. So started rooting for a gap up tomorrow, as that is good for those bearish, and will allow those bullish to bail out… if they are wise enough?
Sorry, “couldn't push up”…
Interesting. Could be. It will try all of our patience, that is for sure!
MS, it’s a good short at 27-27.3, until it’s not, use a 27.7 stop
OK guys…
Time Out is over, you can go back to bickering again. LOL
There's something wrong with the MOO stocks, and DE, cant get above its 20 day 58.5 or so, good place to short DE, use a 1% stop
T in the 24's, get that 7% dividend, I'll go long at 24, it's at 24.5 today.
You still going short at VIX 33?
VIS is at a crossroad signal. Could go either way Tuesday, I'm favoring higher.
Mr TopStep gang…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ac_By4qxjBA
I think these guys are as clueless as we are! We need to crack 108.
The 60 minute chart is still point up, but the 15 minute chart is now oversold. The bulls need to gap open tomorrow to break outside the channel. I think they can do it, and by mid-day both charts will be overbought, and then some selling into the close should happen.
that will be a classic reversal Tuesday
Yeah but Monica they get paid to be clueless and we don't. LOL
LOL!! I used to do what they do but OTC.
That's shows you how clueless they are!
LOL
Went to yoga expecting to come back to a green market on eod run up.
gotta tell you i am surprised. Volume seems pathetically low which normally pushes green. Right now I do not see what sets up a reversal for Tuesday other than to sat RSI is oversold.
And its unusual for vixes to be negative and markets red on same day
Bye bye containment as well as dip buyers!!!!
methinks we have to close below this level or maybe above. WHO KNOWS???!
Even tech is letting out the air now.
The 60 minute chart is still pushing up, (but looking like it might rollover right here?) But, the 15 minute chart was overbought all day today, which didn't give the bulls enough power to break out of the falling channel.
Right now, the 15 minute chart has finally rolled down into oversold territory and should be turning back up into tomorrow. I expect a small gap open to get out of the channel, and a push to 1100 spx.
At that point, I think both charts will be overbought and selling will happen into the close, and continue all the way to Friday.
Remember, once both the 60 and 15 peak tomorrow, and start back down, they will have the daily, weekly and monthly behind them… pushing down harder and faster. It should be a wave 3 of 3 when that starts.
The whole key is to wait until all 5 charts are all pointing in the same direction. Bulls should bail out when the charts peak, and then become bears.
It's looking bad right now, but I still think it will turn back up tomorrow for one finally high… how high is unknown? Call in a bear squeeze and bull trap… as this sell off doesn't look like it yet.
Just keep in mind that we closed below containment. I think if we open below it, it's bye bye and quick.
I know… probably should have got some puts, but I just have a gut feeling that it's a bear trap.
I f it was not for the vixes i would now say we are headed to 1021 on S&P.
Although is I see your points I am not seeing where the strength to pop will come from.. i hope it happens cause I am light on my positions and would like an add opportunity.
the NASDAQ roll over today has me wondering. it was the market strength until last hour. and it really capitulated.
Carl at day’s end:
1050-1080 estimate for today (30 points)
1071–1088.75 actual range today (17.75 points )
Market was 8-21 points above Carl’s range.
For the past 10 days, average actual range is 24.6 points
Trades: No Trades (only one trade in the past 10 days)
Grade: C (lost no money)
Some hope for the bulls tomorrow…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
This is an afterhours print of 109.12 spy, and could be the final high tomorrow before all 5 charts line up pointing DOWN.
Red, I saw that same print.
Yeah, it might give the bulls a chance to get out? This market is going down hard after the 60 and 15 minute charts go into over bought territory, and start turning back down.
At that point, I see a wave 3 of 3 down coming. That's what the charts tell me… but of course no one knows for sure. The ideal thing to happen tomorrow is for some good consumer confidence numbers and retail sales data to cause a gap up in the morning.
I like to see that happen, so I can get short at a great spot…
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
TZA opened up 1.5%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 4.5% at it’s high, and closed up 4.0%.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a Wait today. TNA was down today, so TNA will be a Wait again for tomorrow.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible sell today, but TZA was up, so TZA was not sold. TZA will probably be a hold for tomorrow. The buying price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.0% in 5 days.
Volume for TZA today was 17% below it’s 1 month average. Bad for TZA.
Volume for TNA today was right at it’s 1 month average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 5.3% with TZA up 4.0%. *****Big divergence.
TZA had been down 1 day, up 3, down 1, and now up 1 day. Choppy, and went no where the last 2 days. Not good for TZA.
The low for TZA was from 19 days ago at $5.30. Today’s low was $7.22, 36.2% higher. Good for TZA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 54.7 to 56.1 (+1.4) while TZA was up 4%. No divergence. Good for TZA.
MACD fastline & slowline both above zero rising Good for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell and closed lower below the top Bollinger band. The fast MACD line is flat, the slow line is still rising. This is the 3rd day of a 3-day sequence ending in a $RUT buy signal. Sure looks like a $RUT buy signal. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a red candle that closed above but near the lower Bollinger Band. MACD is falling sharply. Hard to read.
Last Thursday: On the NYSE, down volume was 73 times the up volume. Usually, the market bounces after a number this large. Maybe not the next day, but the day after that.
Last Friday: On the NYSE, up volume was 9 times the down volume. A nice bounce, as expected (for today or tomorrow).
Today: Expected, but did not get a bounce in $RUT. (Good for TZA)
TZA had a much lower high & higher low & higher close (Good for TZA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 1,568 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
$13,442 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 232 million flowing out of the market today.
Good for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, Good for TZA for tomorrow
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a Wait today, was down 3.9% today, and remains a Wait for tomorrow.
TZA was a possible sell today, was up 4% today, and is a possible sell again for tomorrow. The buy price was $6.10, and TZA closed at $7.63, up 25.1% since the buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
SLV(silver)
UCO(2x Oil)
GS
ERY (-3x energy)
The list to avoid:
TNA (3x $RUT)
UUP(US Dollar)
USO(oil)
DRI
GOOG
DIA
SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
DZZ (-2x Gold)
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
AAPL
AMZN
DRV (-3x RE)
EPV (-2x Europe)
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
EWU(England)
SRS (-2x RE)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
ERX(3x energy)
SPY
QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ)
EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow:
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
DXD (-2x DOW30)
Summary: A bit more Bearish
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Likely sell of TZA, avoid TNA
I believe today was Oct. 14th… you can figure out the rest.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EGSPC#char…
Interesting – was trying to go back to Sun's chart and they seem to be all gone …. did anyone save any of them ?
New post….
I saved some of them, but that wouldn't tell you much, as they are all old. Read my newest post, and get short tomorrow… if you aren't already.