Tomorrow Was Worst, But For Me…

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Damage was done today, but not to the market...

When I wrote yesterday that today would likely be the big down day, causing capitulation, I really believed it would happen.  I let my emotions get the best of me on this one, and did a lot of damage by scaring my dear friend.  For that, I am deeply sorry, as I only intended to help.  I was wrong to push my opinion on someone else, even though I had the best intentions at heart.  I guess the best way to help is to say nothing, and just keep your opinions too yourself.

I fear that I may have lost that friend, because of stupidity.  I hope not, and I hope that in time she can forgive me for my actions.  I'm not perfect by any means, and I'm certainly not that great at trading.  I'm too emotional in my trades.  I have learned a lot in the last year about trading, but controlling my emotions will be the hardest thing to master.  In time, I'm sure I will, as I'm flexible and willing to adapt.

On top of hurting a dear friend, I have also lost a value member of this blog, as it seems that the site is getting too much traffic and drawing too much attention.  I wish him well, and thank him for all he has taught me and everyone who listened.  May he return someday, when the timing is near...

Since this is a Friday, and I rarely do posts on Fridays' I don't have any charts or forecasts to go over.  I'll save it all for the Weekend Update report.  I will say that Monday should be an up day.

Good luck to all of you good people, and may the trolls crawl back into their hole.

Red

270 COMMENTS

      • red…dont take this the wrong way but hell if someone gets upset at you for taking the red pill and being adamant (big word here) about it then guess what…they are a little thin skinned or there must be a full moon out…this is a big mans game or womans….and we are all putting out our crazy thoughts…thats what makes it enjoyable…some are good and some are bad thoughts its your personal responsibility in this game to make your OWN decisions…not blame someone else…if thats the case get a financial adviser and be happy… just my red pill thought…

    • Eh low Moby…dont know but it for a good story…for all that caught my post about a siren going off when I start my browser I found the fix…I use fire fox and if u have cool preview on it uninstall it then restart fox problem fixed…then if u want cool preview get the new version….

      ok back to the story of the trolls…

          • Yes, Joe Jackson was a troll… and William Shatner was probably one too. The fake prints I figure out myself, after catching one back in January of 1047 spx, only to see it happen on February 5th.

            Sundancer was trying to teach anyone that wanted to learn about the ritual side of the game… which I still don't understand fully. I guess if I did understand, and truely figured out their game, they would be sending me messages too.

            But, as you can see, I make as many bad forecasts as good ones… so I don't understand it enough to be a threat to them I guess? They hide in plain sight, so I hide in plain site.

            They don't see the big picture, that this really is just a game, and that we really do live in the matrix. Watch those video's at Project Camelot… you'll learn a lot.

        • I noticed this morning and I have only been here for a short period of time…but this morning it seem to me that there were some comments made that to me seemed disrespectful….the mood of the post early before I left was a strange vibe if you will…maybe I was still in dream land because I have a 3 hr time lag than most of u…

  1. Red,

    I wouldn't worry too much about loosing a friend, they may hold grudges but in time they will forgive.

  2. must be a full moon out…me moby and newbear hanging out on a friday late every one else out drinking beer…

    • hahahaha…thats funny…talk en to u two guys made my horrible day end on a good note…thanks for the laughs…

        • as my daddy use to say…may he rest in peace…shit happens…deal with it but dont let it cloud your thinking by the active ones here its an enjoyable site…

        • No need to be upset …. you meant good and that is all that matters in the end ….

          Ultimately, each of us takes our decision …. Sun kept screaming about 114.3 retest I still didn't take the trade (though I sure wish I had 🙂 ….. this blame game is just a way to make yourself feel better – don't forget only you can push the buy button.

          Also, your friend is an awesome trader … and it seems like she pretty much got out at the entry point one day later, so no harm done …. don't beat yourself up 🙂

          Have a great weekend !!! You did awesome this week and the week before and the week prior to that and ….

          • By Tuesday I believe the 60 minute chart will have topped, and be ready to roll back down. The daily and weekly still show NO signs of pointing back up. We have another sell off coming.

            I'd estimate Tuesday or Wednesday to be the high on this rally. Where? I don't know? I don't see 114.30 spy, as that's too high I believe. We will have to see when we get there.

          • I haven't been here in a while…. looks like things have really picked up, red. Nice! “Where” is the question, isn't it? I wouldn't be surprised to see 1150 on /es. VIX is telling us to expect huge moves… we could get there quickly.

        • Red – also – maybe this weekend we do something on the fake prints which have not played out yet …. which give us an idea of whether there are any to the downside that have not played out ….

          and a compilation of levels to watch for next week – your roadmap video idea sounds great 🙂

          Just a thought 🙂

          • I'll try to do a video if I have the extra time. It should be easier to explain it, but I just need to keep it under 10 minutes to load it on youtube. I have to study the chart so get a better picture for next week.

        • Red,, Anna is an animal lover .correct? you know darn well she cant resist loving you,,you old dog,,you… its like you piddled on her carpet,,she gets mad for a bit,but not for long..

  3. High of the day was 1090.16 at about noon, which hasn't been topped yet. That rally at EOD may well have been all hat and no cattle.

    Boy, today hurt like a bar steward, but every chart I'm looking at says the direction is still down.

    • Market has a new low coming Rip, but it will try to shake out the short on Monday and Tuesday. Don't be surprised if you see a 200-300 point up day. Nothing would shock me now, as they will try to get the bulls back in, and scare out the bears.

      It won't last too long… 2-3 days maybe. Once the 60 minute chart gets overbought again, and if the daily is still pointing down (which they still currently are), the selling will continue.

      • I'm going to watch our British cousins and FTSE for a clue on Monday morning. They have completed a double bottom and a partial rebound. We will continue whatever start they have, be it a rally or further decline. Both exchanges are ready for either.

        If we rally, I will not go long because it will be in progress and there will likely be little money to be made on calls. There is resistance at 1100 and 1112 (and even still at 1090, btw). 1112 would be the limit for the bear case to hold, IMO. If we go up I will buy more inventory, a little at 1100 and more at 1112.

        I favor Monday being a down day because of the typical behavior of the Ascending Broadening Wedge I have referenced before:

        http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

        http://thepatternsite.com/abw.html

        Kudos to Cobra for the tipoff on this.

        http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/

        • Rip, I am positioned for an ass whipping if we gap up and run 400 points on Monday so it probably will happen due to me being greedy. I guess we put in a bearish engulfing pattern on the VIX as well which is not good for us bears for Monday. We also had an equity buy signal on the VIX last week. But, the only thing is that EVERYONE seems so confident that we are going up that I have to sort of wonder whether it was their intention to make it look that way. Red saw a fake print last week at 112.08 so I am worried that they will take it there to scare out the bears yet keep that descending bearish trendline. Anyway, I like your charts (of course) and your opinion and hope the best for us.

          • Mon, I dont know if this makes you feel better or worse but here is the info on a bearish engulfing pattern:
            “The bearish engulfing candlestick is one of the more popular and well known candlesticks. It works very well as a bearish reversal, performing that way 79% of the time (ranking 5 out of 103 candlestick types where 1 is best). Unfortunately, the trend after the breakout is short-lived, ranking 91st. Thus, even though price will often reverse, the bearish engulfing candlestick does not imply a lasting reversal” Also it goes on to say “The bearish engulfing candlestick performs best after a downward breakout, but really sucks after an upward one” the vix just had a upward breakout…

            By using just the odds of the above statements and cobra's numbers… the most likely thing that may occur is a slight move higher in the markets (lower vxx) for 1-2 days and then a resumption of the down trend. How high is the question. Personally I dont think we will make it too far… if any. fwiw I am not in a position at the moment.

          • I wondered how you made out with May puts on Friday; probably clobbered like me. I was banking on the EOD surprise to be downward. Well, foregone profit was a tearjerker but real loss wasn't that much.

            In a sample chart accompanying the article PeterK80 quotes, the breakout trend continues for one full period and part of another after the bearish engulfing, and then a sizable reversal starts. Either that or the short-lived reversal can happen.

            Looking at the VIX chart, I expect it to correct to 38 or 35 in the near term. If it's 38, then the rally will be over on Monday morning. If it's 35, then it would be one more strong push (to 112 probably) and a day of testing containment.

          • Thank you Rip – yes 112 is a real possibility but I am hoping it loses steam before then. yes, I got clobbered and lost some massive profits that I should have taken but those are tough lessons hopefully learned.

    • Whack away Blood…

      The trolls will probably leave now, as there's no more reason to stay around. But we will see… if they don't, you can get your paddle out and whip them good. LOL

  4. Looking forward to seeing how Monday unfolds. Been following here and there, but figured I would join the fun . . .

  5. Just signed up for disqus recently so please pardon my guest identity
    Based on the technicals, I see nothing that would have prompted me to go long yesterday.
    Also, VIX is crazy high, no higher highs, higher lows on daily.
    Short play looked right to me Red and I appreciate your generously providing this site and all of the constructive comments from your regulars.
    Thanks,
    MQ

  6. Folks this is a message for everyone. Watch “Chart Pattern Trader” videos. He's on the bloglist here.

    http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/index.php

    This guy puts it all together nicely. He's comprehensive brief and keys into the point with effiecency. Ignore him at your own peril. You have been warned. (just trying to help, you'll see what I mean) He's asking for donations and he deserves it.

  7. Did anyone ever find out what were those lines were on “Sundancer's” flicker charts? I don't think he ever shared that with anyone. How can we copy that on our screens…..We can't, so we have to wait for the scraps of half information from his table? Must make him feel elite, throwing a piece of meat to the hungry dogs and then just walking off, Lord style.

    In contrast, see chartpattern trader videos, see post below

    Obviously they are some sort of moving averages simple or expotential

    • TheChartPatternTrader is excellent at his work. I watch his video's all the time, as well read Cobra's Blog, and study other great chartists. I even borrow a lot of the charts I post from other blogs listed here. I add my thoughts and notes onto the charts as well, agreeing or disagreeing with what they have marked.

      I encourage everyone to study the charts of those listed here on this site, as that's how I learned a lot about Technical Analysis, Elliottwave, Astrology, etc…

      I try to put all the pieces together, from many of the sites listed, and add my own input from other factors. Like the news, planned corruption, fake prints, and anything else I can think of that can effect the market.

      I'm wrong a lot, but I'm slowly learning how it all works. Sundancer gave as much information as he could. Now, it's up to those who listened and studied hard, to put the pieces together.

      I'm not there yet, but maybe in time I will be. You can't expect him to give you the goose that lays the golden eggs. Just be happy that you had the chance get one of the eggs… but the goose isn't for sale.

      You'll have to study the charts, and learn through trial and error like I've done… and still do. It's not easy to make in this game Ben. If is was, then it wouldn't be worth playing…

    • Those are moving averages. Multiples of 8 over different time periods.

      You can experiment and plot those. It is the mother of all curve fitting exercises. Once you plot enough of different ones over different time periods, you can tell which one is the so called 'controlling' line for the current situation. The controlling line is going to change as time goes by and the market evolves. There is nothing mysterious nor magical about them. It is all probabilities and statistics.

  8. There is some talk about the possibility of the market spiking 400 pt in the coming days.

    We don't know it is going to spike up. Just that based on historical panic selling and a followup spike the next day, it means that the worst is very likely over. It doesn't mean a spike up comes immediately. It can spike up, given the crazy nature of this algo trading and liquidity driven market. It can also mean the market would just tread water here, going side way for a while. It may drop slightly or go up and then have another panic selling day. If the historical pattern holds, then any major decline will be at least weeks or months away.

    We cannot say the market is going to spike up from here. But I have different third party models suggesting just that. We should just follow the 'teal' line on the hourly, and let the market lead the way.

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