The Bulls fell hard at the end of the day...
The market looked extremely weak all day today, as the 60 minute chart pushed hard to work off some oversold conditions. Unfortunately, the 15 minute chart didn't help much as it was already in overbought territory, which meant that the 60 was trying to swim upstream against the monthly, weekly, and daily charts that were pushing it back down.
Tomorrow morning we have consumer confidence data and FHFA housing price index out at 10 am. Not much else to move the market, as there isn't any earnings announcement on any company that can move the market. Too me, it's a little frustrating as I could have gotten back in short at the high this morning, but I was expecting Tuesday to put in the high for the week.
It still might happen, but a gap up needs to occur in the morning. The downward sloping trendline has held the market tight in a falling channel for several days now. If the market can gap open tomorrow, and run higher, the next major trendline of resistance (from another falling channel) is around 1100 spx. What a wonderful place to go short... if the market would be so kind.
We could continue falling, without stopping until we hit 988 spx area, which is the 20 MA on the Monthly chart. I do believe that will stop the falling, but I won't be going long there. I will exit most of the shorts I will hopefully purchase tomorrow, but I'd rather stay in cash and not get killed by the falling VIX on the ride back up.
So for tomorrow, it's pretty simple... a gap up should produce a nice run up to at most 1100 spx. A flat or down open will keep the market inside the falling channel and the selling will continue.
Best of luck to everyone...
Red
P.S. As was surfing around a little bit, I went over to "Follow the Money" (link on Red Pill sites on my blogroll), and started watching a video about a earthquake watch until the 27th, and it started to bore me as it was getting too technical. But at the very end his stated the possible places for the earthquake... the lower tip of South America.................... and Baja, CA!
You want an excuse to blame the coming crash on... how about an earthquake? God have mercy on those people if it does happen. I pray it doesn't, but with or without the earthquake... the technicals say the market it about to puke!
Red – were you able to goto the doc ?
No, not yet. I've had for over 2 years now, so another week isn't going to change much. Thanks for asking.
Wow – that's taking a pretty big risk – considering what they were saying about survival rates based on it going in further …. pls pls go …
I hope you have insurance …. is that the reason you have being delaying this ? 🙁
I don't have insurance, but that's not why. I just like the idea of them cutting a hole in my neck. I'll go after this sell off is done.
I'm sorry Red – I know what you mean …. didn't mean to be sarcastic at all … just concerned … won't mention it again – sorry if it got too personal
That's fine… I know you mean well.
Nice write up red…i'm still in and believe it goes down some more also…eh…if you dont here from me in the morning that earthquake hit a little higher than baja and I am either gone or hopefully I get some beach front property…hahaha
I sure hope that doesn't happen… Let's hope that's just another forecast I get wrong.
red did you see how futures are tanking right now and the asia is plummeting as well look at the kospi down 3% already this news is alarming May 24 2010, 10:31 PM
dark1p: May 25 (Bloomberg) — Asian stocks and the won plunged to the
lowest in 10 months after Yonhap news agency reported that North
Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered his military to prepare for combat.
The euro weakened and commodities declined on concern Europe’s debt
crisis may spread.
I see them now… I should, would, could got short earlier today. But, there is more selling coming. I'll be getting short tomorrow asap. Remember, about 988 spx is the monthly 20ma level. That is highly likely to be hit.
That sure is interesting geo analysis…. very cool.
Scary huh… That's one way to bankrupt CA…
Hi Red 🙂 really good post
So… what if penn was right and we needed to watch the kospi as our primary indicator for world markets? Is that sort of like… jupiter is conjunct uranus in the north node of Venus?
If you can line up Astrology with TA's, news event's etc… then you have one powerful move coming. I hope Penn isn't still long. He was such a diehard bull you know.
well…if he was really using the kospi as his primary indicator… he won't be now lmao
Here's the scare thing (and why it's good to have friends), Keirsten noticed that the Dow closed today at 10,066.6 (rounding up the 57 cents). I missed that one.
I have an EW count that you need to see
give me about 5 minutes and I think you'll like this
http://www.screencast.com/t/ZDkxNzliM
sorry it took me so long to get back 🙂
Blood,
I just seen your chart. I went to bed, and you must have posted it after that. I don't think this is P3 yet. But, I do think we are going lower by the end of the week. I see 988 spx being tagged before the end of the month. It's the 20ma on the monthly chart, and should provide a nice rally back from hitting it. That doesn't mean that it couldn't be pierced intraday and close on it or higher, as that is also possible.
and you need to come back to the chatroom at night… we miss you
Well, I see about that tomorrow night. How's that… Kinda of a family in there isn't it.
look forward to seeing you… and yah… with our little brother missing 🙁
Red, earlier today when you said you were hoping for a gap opening tomorrow, I thought that was akin to betting that the next woman to walk into a room would have a mustache; possible, perhaps, but unlikely.
You may be onto something, however. Stocks advanced very little today for the decline in VIX that we had, perhaps indicating some noise in the averages.
Guess we don't have that possibility anymore, barring an FM (a ****ing miracle).
Hope we get some kind of reaction rally so that you can get on board, Red. Or, you could buy some TZA to have a dog in the fight.
two words.. bear flag
Well just so you know… I sold SSO at 35.25 yesterday.
Didn't like the way it was free falling and Red's valid reasons for a free fall coming.
I'm in wait and see mode.
timber, lookout below…Europe beaten down, SPY pre-market @ 104.94
Goooooood Moooornin all…rainy CA is still here for another day….boy red glad I listened to you….I am in your camp when it came to the charts lining up…I didn't get out yesterday still in and I still think we get close to 998…I will probably get out to day on the way down and take my little cut and be happy…
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37320650 Hey Red if you could send this to Anna, if she has not already seen it.. Gartman calls to jump into gold, and Whitney Tilson says more than Fast $ wanted him too..LOL! I guess Anna went all Pay site.. good for her tell her I wish her the best on her Gold trades.. 3 of 3 of 3 of wave 1 is on.. Dark, and yourself should do well, I am in 100% to the downside.. have a great day…
Flipper babe, no Hob still free just got to Hotoptionbabe.com I miss you and thanks for the info!!~
ouch ouch ouch…early morning pain…we are going straight to the bottom this mornin…S3 is 105.30 and we are at 105.06 now…I think I'm safe in sayin going down eh…
Eh Moby…you out a bed yet…your going to miss the ride down….
I don't think the big drop will happen till a little later.
jobless claims thurs, what if they are bad, ie two weeks in a row!
ism manufacturing last tradingday of the month. High dollar and weakness overseas could means weak number.
these are two reasons for a tank
FTSE plunged at their opening and is backtesting. They ought to be done about when we open and we will probably drop together in the first hour. I expect we will spend mid-day backtesting and plunge again late in the day.
Put and ETF prices may actually peak in the afternoon, higher than the actual bottom tomorrow which may be a relatively calm affair. That's what happened last time.
Futures are piling on. A gap up looks out of reality. Question is when to get in. At open ?? or do you wait for that pause.
I guess i will add a little at open and see where it goes. But this expected bounce is gone IMO.
DOW Theory did say a break below 10221 was it.
Carl’s morning call:
June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1030-65. I expect a long lasting low to develop today or tomorrow. Once the low has been established I think the ES will begin a rally that will take it to 1300 and higher.
1036.75 – 1169.50 range last night (32.75 points)
1030-1065 estimate for today (30 points)
average actual range last 10 days has been 24.6 points
1044 currently, so estimate is -14 to +21 from here (a bit bullish)
i believe the next stop is diablos' 102.63 area or so. i will sell my puts in the 990s.
wrestling with S3 105.30 and not doing very well
i am not worried. just needs a bunch of bulls to jump on before it can tank.
good morning all and a good morning it is!
mornin…whats your guess for today…all charts are back in line and macds are pointing down…maybe 103.50
i have no idea big bad. all i can tell is that the next level of support from diablos and suns charts looks like around 102.63 or even slightly lower. whether it gets there today is anyone's guess but i would not be surprised if it did.
I was trying to setup suns charts and with what info there was I have next stop at 101.85…but I dont know if that is right…
yes, diablos' also has a line around there but one at 102.63 as well and I don't actually know which one provides support (maybe ask him). Anyway, I will be curious to see if we hit those fake prints today or maybe on the way back up?
Yes the next stop is around 1016-1020 spx.
Some morning prints: http://screencast.com/t/NDNiMzc4
Thanks Diablos. Do you know what the volume was on those? Will be interesting to see when we reach them.
8:05 106.99 186,000
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradi…
8:00 106.44 400,000
http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradi…
Thank you. You know who once said that volume should be 111 for fake prints. But I don't know if that is every time.
Yup. I'm not sure what to make of them all, some work like a charm, some don't.
just realized your fake print at 8:05 = 666 🙂
Gang,
I did see a fake print to 1072.00 last night, but I seriously doubt that we will even get close it for awhile. Maybe 1050.00, but that's about it. The bulls are trapped and want out. The market won't let them.
Before the end of the week I expect the 20 MA on the Monthly chart to be hit. Currently it's around 988 spx. I did get short this morning, although I was I would have done that yesterday.
But, this isn't “The Big One”, as that won't happen until later this year. When? Unknown right now, but I'll be more prepare for it when it finally does arrive.
So for now, it's just a waiting game…
FYI…
If you all remember my Sunday post where I mention a site called BAM Investors. Apparently, “Network Solutions” lost 100% of their email list of clients… just before this big sell off we are having.
I think you can put two and two together here, and say that “they” didn't want BAM Investors informing their clients of what is coming.
I doubt that this site will ever get that popular, and I hope it doesn't. For if it does… it might disappear one day. If so, make sure you all have my twitter, facebook, etc… feeds on your buddy list.
If that disappears…
well, you can figure that one out for yourself… can't you.
Go read the twitter feed at BAM Investor
http://twitter.com/baminvestor
Does this BAM investor thing make you scared enough not to want to get long in the 990s? My issue is that if you listen to a bunch of people, you'll get a bunch of answers and so far, you know who has been 100% right. He said that as the market came down, everyone would panic while he was getting long.
No Monica,
I just don't want to get long because of the high vix, and how it will kill anyone with straight calls. Plus, there will be a lot of whipsaw action the first few days.
I may take a call spread, or just sit it out until the dust settles. There still is a small chance that the 20ma (about 988 spx) will fail and the market will continue down to the 875 spx level.
I would rather just sit in cash and watch…
I'm not talking calls. I was going to start buying stocks. I guess I will stick to my plan of investing about 40% there and the rest lower. I have a whole list of stocks I have selected if you are interested although a monkey could probably pick stocks better than me!
Would be very interested 🙂 …
again, a monkey can pick stocks better than me but here you go:
ADM, JOYG, MON, MOS, PBR, QQQQ, RIMM, SLW, YZC, GE, FWLT, IYR, IWM, HGSI, HES, GENZ, FE, EXC, DOW, DO, DE, COP, CMI, CLF, CHRW, CAT, BBH, BAC, BA, AKAM, FWLT, F, GS
Daily: http://screencast.com/t/ZWRiYjQ5YmMt
Weekly (needs work): http://screencast.com/t/NGQ5ZDBiNDg
Nice Charts, Thanks.,
Thanks Diablos. How do you draw in tdameritrade? If I say advance charting I can draw only max 3 sma's or 3 ema's. Thanks again
I am using Think or Swim. https://www.thinkorswim.com/tos/client/index.js…
Thank you – I am thinking of signing up for it but they charge a lot for options, no? 1.75 a contract? Or do they peg their fees to whatever I have at Ameritrade?
I actually don't trade through them nor do i have an account funded. I filled out the required info to download their software.
NO WAY!! good to know.
TOS is good for low numbers of options, but after about 10 or so, you are better off with Ameritrade, as they charge .75 per contract past the first one of $10 bucks.
Thats what I have found. Just surprised that Ameritrade has the lowest fees. They charge the most for margin but I am staying far far away from that anyway.
Wow, that is excellent, Diablos.
I have to figure out how to use that part of the Ameritrade software. It's a bit incomprehensible.
What is the difference between the 102.58 and the 101.85 lines?
Awesome. Thank you.
Diablos – don't see anything – it says no picture available … can u share again pls ?
I get this msg … pls could you upload again ?
We're sorry! We were unable to locate the requested page.
Please check the URL you entered to make sure it is correct.
If you were looking for content owned by a Screencast.com user, please contact the content owner for more information.
Hi Red, When I open an attachment here it opens in this window. so I have to hit the back button to return and then scroll back down the site. I have noticed at other sites that when I open an attachment it opens a new window. then I a can just tab back and forth. Is that a setting on your side that can be change?
It's called a “lightbox”, and it simple opens up over top of the website, and is closed by simply clicking on the image… anywhere on it.
You can still “right click”, and select “open in new window” or “open in new tab”, and view it that way.
Red, Thanks,
The market is trying to make it up to the top trendline around 1070 spx. I don't know if it will make it there or not, but if so… it's a great spot to add more shorts.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS…
wish I could! sideways action kills my puts.
I am looking. glad i did not add at open
It doesn't matter. You either ride the waves or you don;t. Trying to time an entry is difficult. I would say Red is right though. I would get in at Diablos' print. 106.44 or 106.99. How do you guys like them apples? 106.99 = 666!! CUTE!
Gang,
The 15 minute chart is what's hold the market up for now. It is working off the oversold conditions from this morning. It's in positive territory now, and should roll back down into the close, causing more selling. Patience… 988 spx is highly likely to be tagged by this Friday.
GL to us all red 🙂
Yes NB…
I hope we all survive this market.
Thanks Red! Let's all hold hands!
VIX making a cup and saucer on Yahoo 5 day chart:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^VIX+Interac…
Edit: That is cup and handle.
thanks rip – i had not noticed that and I am long vix calls. The volatility waning is hurting my puts and calls so i hope the formation works!
Monica,
I learned from Anna that you should stay out of VIX calls or puts. Something about the way they price them? She knows, but I can't explain it. She only does spreads on them. Just don't buy any of them straight out again.
OK Red – thanks. Done well on them so far but I am sure she is right.
She knows her options, that's for sure. She can tell you about the delta, theta, vega, etc… which is over my head. Of course her style of trading is different then mine, but I've learn a lot from her on how to play options.
Yep, she knows her stuff.
Would that apply to vxx?
i have played that but you must pay attention.
Yes, it applies to it too.
So much for wishful thinking.
GL to us all red 🙂
Blood,
I just seen your chart. I went to bed, and you must have posted it after that. I don't think this is P3 yet. But, I do think we are going lower by the end of the week. I see 988 spx being tagged before the end of the month. It's the 20ma on the monthly chart, and should provide a nice rally back from hitting it. That doesn't mean that it couldn't be pierced intraday and close on it or higher, as that is also possible.
She knows her options, that's for sure. She can tell you about the delta, theta, vega, etc… which is over my head. Of course her style of trading is different then mine, but I've learn a lot from her on how to play options.
I am hoping we get up to 106.99 and then tank into the close. May the force be with us 🙂
Almost there now… one more push, and that's all she wrote.
Just got your hit. Now we see??
Did the bulls grow some gonads??
getting mighty close. Hang onto your hats!
just hit it. lets see what happens
If they close the SPY today at 106.66, all hell is going to break loose tomorrow.
all day and this is the best it gets….I'm in for a drop tomorrow…hourly is trying to turn but daily not moven
Which way????
We are going down Jim. We tagged 106.99, and we are now overbought on the 15 minute chart. We should sell off into the close and tomorrow too.
we goto 100 or 101 tomorrow then up and that free advice right there
long for next few days been long from 105.50 area
Good luck to both of us. 🙂
you short ?????
Yes, I'm expecting 988 spx by Friday. I know you're hedged, but still be careful. We have 106.99 spy as the fake print, and then more selling.
red, i wouldn't be providing advice.
Don't worry i have too many mouths to feed and a will follow myself and make my own decisions, not buying into that again
ok – i just don't want you guys to fight over something stupid. You do fine on your own so just listen to yourself.
that's it girl….never go against a woman's intuition!! LOL
🙂 Bingo
that made me laugh out loud! hahahahah for 10min.
I went long @ 1047 today and looking around 1120=30 then new down move 🙂
You are one of the best traders. You really should go pro and start a hedge fund.
aweeeeeeeeeeehhh shoot 🙂 blushing….
Laughing at me huh… nice friend.
no REd I was laughing at his comment about the Titantic! sheesh you have some issues I wasn't speaking of you at all!
Ok then, I guess I interpreted it wrong… sorry.
Sorry I am not with you ….Tomorrow should be higher..this is just a bit of overbought short 1/5 min…
I understand. Still my friend I hope… Best of luck to both of us.
Sure friends!! but never follow you again 🙂
That's good. We'll just keep the market talk out of out conversation. I like friends better.
you have to follow your own game plans and knowing options I can play both ways….VIX is telling us a higher day tomorrow I have a put spread on it 🙂
cool,,, I new you couldnt be mad at the ole dog for long..:)
you just get up moby…missed u today
been busy fixin people
oh doctor, why didn't I get that?! Can you fix me?!
bad back?
bad brain!
thats constructive…I been getting allot of your weather down here and have to say I am tired of it…give me my sun back…
nah 🙂 hahahahaha
just looked at the daily and it looks allot like friday then look what happened….this stuff can make you crazy…
so far so good.
That's good. We'll just keep the market talk out of out conversation. I like friends better.
that's it girl….never go against a woman's intuition!! LOL
BTW target of 1120-30 for right shoulder then lower lows
Do not know where they got it together but that is some bounce.
Not sure I want to add into this yet. Normally i would but the bears got scared today.
We are still in the falling channel, and overbought on the 15 minute chart now. The 60 is barely above the zero level and could roll over anytime. You already know the monthly, weekly, and daily charts are pointing down.
This is a bull trap… Tomorrow we will sell again.
i'm with you red. Stick to your guns.
I told you what I expect for 2 days and I am long from 1047 /es
In my opinion, tomorrow will be another down day.
Well we shall see eh?
What if tomorrow starts up and winds up down? Then are you both right?!
there you go! 🙂 I do think we see 1100 or 1120
hope not or my ass will be grass. but it is entirely possible!
no don't want that!! but remember if we do rally hard like I think the vix could go to 30 which will really sting on options so careful 🙂
k – thanks for the warning anna.
Maybe buy a vix put spread to hedge yourself 🙂
anna, I am stubborn as a mule and will pay the price if I need to.
heheheheheheh 🙂
You know I'm not against you, as I have a longer time frame of trading in mind, and you might swing in and out intraday. So we both can make money with this. I'm rooting for you. 🙂
longer term bearish but first right shoulder on inverse
i agree so far…the hr i am tired of looking at up macd down macd so its right there….but I look at the effort to get here and bulls cant get this to PP so I still in the down camp…
well we busted through that print. Wonder if that's where the market will close instead.
next false print to 109.18
The vixes were the enemy today. there is no fear selling. It will be interesting to see the volume.
I got 324.1 for today so far…red candle…yesterday 269
on a cup and handle formation (as rip mentioned the VIX appears to be in), the handle should be lower volume than the cup and once it starts to break out of the handle, the volume should increase.
No i am hoping i do not get stopped out.
But remember to always be hedged
red – i think I might know where we close today 🙂
ok please tell…I say 107.08
well I was going to say 106.99 but it doesn't look like it is happening.
here it comes….
hahahaha…had the right numbers just the wrong order…
ha ha! Just another day in paradise.
False print to 1.0927
when?
those things are eerie eh?
yes, but i told red that when the go through, I don't really believe in them. They have to stop and reverse at least close to the level.
I take them with my other indicators as a bundle 🙂
yes, wise.
I seen this last night, but I didn't believe it would be hit today. Keep you eyes open for one tonight…
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
New print… 105.90 spy
http://reddragonleo.com/wp-content/uploads/2010…
Thanks RDL. what is your target timeframe to reach 990's?
This Friday…
Thanks RDL. I didnt do any trades today, but the reversal looks very bullish to me.
i'm hoping that the overall trend will take us there
that was only a late fill there were a few of those, if the market has been there then you see that false print end of day then it's not a false print, only when the tape has not been near the false print. 😉
when did I get it? yesterday afternoon
k. Thanks for the heads up/
anytime! 🙂
Anna may be right. Vixes are 6-7% down . have not been there in quite a while.
🙂 a good sign of things to come
red, how are we looking on the charts? I am hoping this is our usual backtest of containment.
The chartists will be very interesting tonight. I cannot wait to hear chart trader
Very overbought on the 15, but the 60 could push up some tomorrow. Still in the channel though…
Wait a second – all we did at the close is fill the gap from this morning, no?
Carl at day’s end:
1030-1065 estimate for today (30 points)
1038.50–1073.75 actual range today (35.25 points )
Market was 8 points above Carl’s range.
For the past 10 days, average actual range is 25.7 points
Trades: No Trades (only one trade in the past 10 days)
Grade: C (lost no money)