Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Bernanke Speaks And The Markets Sell Off…

Oh NO!  What Did I Say Wrong?

You gotta love it!  Just as soon as Ben Bernankes' FOMC minutes are released, the market tanks.  Of course from a technical point of view, it was ready to sell off anyway... but someone has to be blamed, right?  LOL.  Well, tomorrow should also be a down day too, as the 60 minute chart has now rolled over and is ready to cross the zero level.

The daily chart put in a lower histogram tower, and the MACD lines are getting closer to crossing back down again.  The weekly is now sitting with a topping tail on its' candle, but of course the week hasn't ended yet... so that could all change.

The 15 minute chart is oversold and pointing slightly back up, but the 5 minute is over bought... meaning that any move back up will be short lived, as both charts re-align themselves to point back down at the same time.  With the 60 minute chart putting downward pressure, I can't really see the 15 minute chart pushing the market back up very far.

The sideways action for the last couple of hours put in a bear flag on the 5 and 15 minute charts.  While it's possible that we go up a little, allowing the 15 to work off its' oversold condition, we could just as easily continue to fall lower while it does it.

Overall, we are still in the falling channel, and until we get outside it... I'm bearish.  I was short term bullish last week, but today turned me to short term bearish.  I'm not sure how far we will sell off too, but we should see some more downside for at least tomorrow morning.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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dreadwin
13 years ago

Cobra spotted a fake print today.

http://lh6.ggpht.com/_APmrYvpA45s/TEdgrKqevFI/A

Looks like around 108.25 on SPY. Could just be a late-reported trade, however.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

I think it's just a late print Dreadwin, as we traded in that range most of the day.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

We'll find out tomorrow for sure 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

That Anthony Allen is calling for a 50 point SPX rally! I don't know what he's smoking, but he's got too be high on something. What kind of news event could cause that?

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

We might go back up some, but the daily chart looks ready to roll over soon, and the 60 is pointing down too. Anything is possible, but not likely…

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

All our shorts are gonna get pounded today.
A few earnings that are due to major cost cutting and the futures go nuts.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I gave Tony the nickname “Mr. Bear Porn” because his charts and bias were so bearish for so long.

The reason we're going to break through the trendline this time has to do with Europe's “stress testing” of their banks. What happened when we did that to ours? Markets went up. Why? Gov't was putting their “stamp” on the capital ratios, etc. Don't trade reality (except when you should). Trade sentiment (except when you shouldn't).

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Ok… now my head is spinning. Are you bullish for the rest of the day and tomorrow (short term), or are you bearish. Same question for the next few weeks.

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Sorry 🙂 I was short via FAZ when Tim Geithner released the “stress test” results for US banks last year. I got my ass handed to me. So, the lesson learned is that you want to be long “stupid” (ideally, a European financial sector fund, i.e. fundamentally unsound, i.e. “stupid”) when bank stress-test results are released.

CAC and FTSE ramped up in anticipation of the banks being given a clean bill of health. (extend and pretend). However — one thing that happened as a result of our stress test is that some big banks sold assets to raise capital. Some allocated more capital against future loan losses. Some recapitalized by selling more shares. So, as part of the process of “passing” the stress test, the banks agreed to do fundamentally sound things that they should have been doing all along.

The assumption is that the European banks are undergoing the same process. When the banks “pass”, their stocks are going to go up up up in Europe. What they'll do (just like our banks did last summer) is offer more shares at these new higher prices. The stocks will (counter-intuitively) go even higher because this is good news (i.e. they're acting responsibly) even though mathematically it is a share dilution. There will be a shortable pop, but I'm not gonna go there.

Short term: stupid bullish. We have broken above the trend line, and I'm pretty sure we're gonna close above it. Short-covering-palooza will follow.

If this crosses over the trend has changed:

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

I got long DRN yesterday. That's our own version of “stupid” (3x commercial real estate). We're trading in Bizarro world.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Hey dread looks right on babe thanks for sharing I added longs yesterday before the close 🙂

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I got long a little bit early yesterday, but I'm solidly in the green now.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

🙂 watching for 1088 spx to see if this holds

Tna
Tna
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

sure you did

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Tna

Trolls everywhere LOL cowards!

Jason_70
13 years ago

I have always believed that News follows price and NOT the other way around.

So basically, SPX did what it had to do. Media just used Ben's statement as an excuse to cover what was already planned for. 🙂

We have been short between 1070 and 1098 and will hold for 950.

http://myequitytrades.blogspot.com/2010/07/shor

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Ell our shorts are gonna get pounded today.
A few earnings that are due to major cost cutting and the futures go nuts.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Looks like that FP was real that Cobra posted yesterday.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Jobless claims jumped sharply and market flies because they are unemployed.

earnings are due to layoffs.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It's one crazy market Jim…

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Has VIX ben developing a serious bull flag??

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

On what time frame?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Top of pole is may 25th

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

I hope some profit taking shows up pretty soon.

Its pretty bloody. Even my stops hurt.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It's not looking for the bears Jim… that's for sure. I guess we will go to that 109.79 FP after all.

anoopsan
13 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

From the looks of this breakout San, it wouldn't surprise me if it closed near the high.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

The daily chart turned back up with today's move, so we could also be heading to 112.41 (the other FP), but not today of course. Tomorrow or next week seems more likely at this point.

Sjack123456
Sjack123456
13 years ago

look at the comments over the last week===the markets going up, no the market is going down, no the marketis… charts are not working well, reminds me of mid 09. call it what you want but there is no rational to the moves, vix is bottom at support, when the market shows where it is headed we will get a big move. 1500 points or more in a hurry, who thinks we are going to 11800? I do not. Staying short untill Aug expiration. Good luck trading,

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Sjack123456

Yes Jack,

I agree with you. I've changed my outlook from bearish to bullish almost daily now. The charts are worthless sometimes it seems. This is one of those times.

Everything I seen pointed down today, yet the market rallied hard? Even the news out was bad… talk about manipulation! There is no question in my mind that this was another short squeeze.

Will it continue higher tomorrow? I don't know at this point? We'll just have to look for the FP after the close today, as that's about the only thing accurate at this point.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

We hit the first fake print of 109.79 spy… now what? Do we keep on rallying to the 112.41 print, and have a 50 point rally like Anthony Allen called for… or save that for another day? (I got to hand it to him on calling that call correctly… I never expected such a powerful rally today).

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I do not think anyone expected a rally today red.
news is negative outpacing earnings and tomorrow is a possible avalanche due to Euro bank news???

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

red seriously do you think we can go 200 points today on the Dow????

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

No Anna… I was just saying what Anthony Allen stated. I think we will fall back down to gap window today, but still close higher. Tomorrow… I have NO clue.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

bearish divergence on daily 15 and 30

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

We are outside the channel from the April high now, but it should backtest the trendline before rallying higher next week (or tomorrow… or never. Who knows?)

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

down past 1088 bearish

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

That would be one of the “gap fills”, and of course the morning gap is down around 1070.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Iam amazed that they have been able to keep this up this long today.

looks like the 5 minute charts are turning up again, while 15 minutes is still strong bull.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Yeah, it looks like they will pop it higher into the close today.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

The vix is less than65 so this is not supported by big buy volume. anyone have a better handle on this am volume?

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

This is going to the moon folks.

Cannot even move long without chasing. so will be out of market in a bit.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It sure looks like it Jim. The next print up is 112.41 spy… after that, who knows?

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red,
unloaded some more of my longs.
AAPL,CME,RGLD…savage profits.
KGC,IWM, LONGS , medium savage profits.
IBM long, I played earnings with a 125 stop, stupid thing never stopped out, 3% stop. taking a small loss, 1%

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

You made a good call on going long yesterday… I certainly didn't see this coming.

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red, I'm using summer rally theory. Thursday's are usually up 200.

Anna
13 years ago

daily hourly has to reset that's all I will say 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

You mean they have reset to bullish mode now. LOL

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

sell the rallies buy the dips DOH!

Ggg
Ggg
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna flipflops more than John Kerry.

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Ggg

Yes… but she's making money….

Ggg
Ggg
13 years ago

or she wants to lead you to believe that. wonder how her BP puts etc and etc are doing?

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Ggg

For your information I rode BP down from 48 to 27 thanks to Anna.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Ggg

Don't come on this site bashing Anna… you will get banned in a heartbeat! She makes good calls and bad ones, just like everyone else does. No one is perfect. As for her BP puts, they are long term ones, and I'm sure she'll do just fine with them.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

They are trolls all had same IP address, nothing more nothing less

don't even bother I laugh all the way to the bank and now on to tracking their IP

Might be Mike Vadon back again if so I sick my attack dogs on em

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Ggg

oh 3rd handle same IP three guys all together on each other eh?

Anna
13 years ago

thanks Woody sure am I picked NFLX before the close yesterday and nice one today they are just trolls! 🙂

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Ggg

Trolls are cowards and they hide because they are hahahahha

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

You can bet this is shaking out a bunch of fence line shorts today. If i had brassier balls I would buy into the shorts on this but the swing has me looking past 1100,

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Hi Jim,
I'm short BRCM,FFIV,HCP…
FFIV, earnings might get FFIV to 85.

zstock7
13 years ago

I was looking at Morrise's charts, yesterday
here's his chart
SPX…
http://screencast.com/t/YTZkYzVmYz
He see's a 50 day, bear signal, but there's another signal embedded in this chart, that he failed to recognize.
It's a bull pennant, with the pennant ending at 1140.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

I see a possible bull fag but a pennant???

zstock7
13 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Thanks Jim,
bull flag, thanks…I wasn't sure what you called the pattern. I just knew it was bull &%#4%, something. I'm going to find something to short now.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Good plays if we get the turn on earnings.

Right now things are flying on air.

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

Iam not sure that actually qualifies as a bull flag pattern due to the shape of the pole, not having the upward or verticle positive close stick.???

Someone better than I would have to make that call.

Regardless it may be playing out as a bull flag as of today.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

It's look's like we'll go higher again tomorrow I guess. We should backtest the falling channel trendline (around 1080), that we finally busted out of today… but there's no guarantee on that. We could continue much higher tomorrow?

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

remember my email

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

No news my friend…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Those Trolls live here…

IP Address: 75.150.250.145
Hostname: 75-150-250-145-Illinois.hfc.comcastbusiness.net
IP Country: United States
IP Country Code: USA
IP Continent: North America
IP Region: Indiana
Guessed City: Syracuse
IP Latitude: 41.4094
IP Longitude: -85.7353
Organization: Comcast Business Communications
ISP Provider: Comcast Business Communications

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

let's go get em and let's Disqus know ! 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

LOL… just look under the bridge, where all the Trolls live.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo
Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

LOL, and they have such pretty hair! All Pink, Purple and Orange!

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

and really FUGLY!!!! that's freaking ugly!

remember Drekitude!

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

the 80's are coming back; I'm tellin ya!

jimhobson
jimhobson
13 years ago

Looks like 1180

Anna
13 years ago

BTW for those who are fond of BP it's rolling over now 🙂

Anna
13 years ago

Hey gang for those clueless trolls (gove.) BP is red! ROLFhahahah

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL… We just got a 108.97 FP! Watch that one hit into the close today Mr. Troll. Thanks for posting it!

newbear
newbear
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

We were already at that level today red, it could just be a late fill. FP usually are out of the daily range.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Maybe? But I think it will hit today.

zstock7
13 years ago

Hi Red,
You might want to check out the summer rally Theory, Video after market close.
Here's the link to that post.
http://zstock7.com/?p=3021
I'm afraid to post links at sites, Where I'm a relative new comer.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  zstock7

You're not a new comer here Z… post any link you want.

zstock7
13 years ago

Nobody ever talks about the Treasury Dept's toolbox.
They have a nuclear option in that toolbox, that averts a double dip recession.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Hey Mr. Troll… Flagging a comment that Anna made is useless. She's a personal friend and will never be banned! What an idiot you must be… don't you know that the moderators get an email to approve/remove all comments that are flagged?

I'm the site owner (and of course a moderator), and Anna is a moderator too. You guys are clueless sometimes! ROFLMAO

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

SPY 109.79…. (109.92 actual top)…. close enough for government work.

Great call, Leo!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Thanks Woody…

I knew we would get there eventually… but I didn't expect it to be like it was with the sell off yesterday and gap up rally today. I thought we would hit it after the FOMC meeting and sell off today. So, I was still fooled.

Gere64
Gere64
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

C'Mon Red. Take it while its there. Tommorw will another chance to get it wrong!

Trust me, I do it all the time!!!

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Gere64

Ok, I'm patting myself on the back now. I called for 109.79 and got it today (better late then never). Tomorrow should be interesting too. Do we rally on up, or fall back into the channel?

zstock7
13 years ago

COST rounded top, supposed to be bearish, took off, up 2.5%. SoaB

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago

Avg length of unemployment chart:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/UEMPM

But don't worry… this is a jobless recovery… (and growthless… and houseless… and…. 😉 )

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

LOL… looks like it blew right past the “recession” grey area, and entered “depression”.

Anna
13 years ago

bidu short the long didn't net me a ton but the puts will 🙂

Anna
13 years ago

NFLX my short trade of the week 🙂

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

Anna,

What are you showing as the low of today on the SPY? Both pre-market and regular hours please.

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

108.33

dreadwin
13 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

108.25 was the possible fake print I brought to your attention yesterday. We opened at 108.33 today. Could just be coincidence.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

Nothing is a coincidence…

Anna
13 years ago
Reply to  dreadwin

No hats off to for pointing it out 🙂

Sir Woody Hackswell
Sir Woody Hackswell
13 years ago
Reply to  Anna

I just wish I had capital left. I'm always medium-term investing… and never have FRN$ left for fast-movers. 🙁

zstock7
13 years ago

MO 21.75 short sell price alert, just went off. Decisions, Decisions. I'll go for it.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago

Dow and SP broke through the bottom of that ending diagonal that's been going on most of the day. Couldn't get above the highs of July 14,15. Yeah Yeah Yeah. Let's get some more selling into the close. We have a date with another flash crash Monday and can't get one until we get some selling ahead of it.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

Astro has July 26 as bad day(Opening day for the grand cardinal climax). It's also 55 trading days from May 6, flash crash day. July 14 was 55 trading days from April 26 high. It was posted over at Jaywiz's that someone else noticed a similarity to the April top fractal. Today's action was a technical reaction for an indicator I can't really discuss. But if the rally continues tomorrow and there is a close above last week's highs then it won't be so pretty for the bears.
Some are calling for a top on July 26 while others have indicated that Arch Crawford is calling for a rally into July 30 which contradicts some other things I have read and muddies things.

Geccko23
Geccko23
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

NYSE has the highest tick close today going back 6months according to stock charts and closed on the high tick of the day. 2 days ago there was the huge intraday tick reading which doesn't forebode well for the market over the next few weeks or months accoring to Cobra via Bespoke.

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago
Reply to  Geccko23

It will be interesting to see what Cobra posts tonight too…

Red Dragon Leo
13 years ago

Well, I guess we rally more tomorrow gang… The recession is over now.

Pzy5t0
Pzy5t0
13 years ago

Red, just sent you an email.

Anna
13 years ago

Traders Lounge @ HOB
we took 110/105 put spread!!

🙂 wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee

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