ES Morning Update January 19th, 2016

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d426dbcb-eeec-43d9-a4aa-c9018fad2c1fFutures are hitting the falling trendline of resistance again this morning.  Next resistance is the other falling trendline.

Futures are hitting the falling trendline of resistance again this morning.  Next resistance is the other falling trendline.

The 4 hour and 6 hour are still in negative territory with more room to go up.

Last week we rallied up on the 13th strongly to hit the falling trendline and then rolled back over and erased it all the next day (and more).  Will this time be the same?  Tough question of course as we know how SkyNet mixes it up a little from time to time.  Once us sheep finally see a pattern it is quickly changed and doesn't work the next time around.  This leads me to believe that we won't drop to a new low today like we did the last time.  Possibly we make an "inverted head and shoulders" pattern today by pulling back to make the right shoulder?

My thoughts are that while I don't think the low is in yet for this move down we could have a small rally early this week.  Traders are just coming back from the MLK holiday, which should lead to light volume today.  I don't see any clear edge for taking a long or a short today.  Right now the charts are mixed.

The SPX Cash is still buried in the dirt and really should come up for air some today, which leads to the theory that the futures won't drop to another lower low today as well.  The SPX wants to come up while this 60 minute ES Futures chart wants to go down.  Hence the word "mixed" charts today.  Since we have been going down for several weeks now it suggests the bears will again pounce at the open.  For me though, I'd be more excited to short from that 2nd falling trendline... maybe tomorrow or Thursday?  But without a clear edge one way or the other today it's just a gamble to trade... which I'll leave to the day traders.

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