Sunday, May 26, 2024

ES Morning Update March 17th 2016


Shorter rising trendline of resistance was hit yesterday as suggested it might.

Lower rising trendline of support was also hit both yesterday and a 2nd time this premarket Thursday.

MACD's have 4 lower highs on this 2 hour chart, creating Quadruple Negative Divergence.  Other time frames have similar divergences.

Yesterday we rallied after the FOMC meeting to "almost" fill the 2038 gap on the SPX from January 2nd.  Today we have one more shot at doing just that by making a slightly higher high again and probably hitting the shorter rising trendline one more time.  Whether this happens or not is unknown of course I'll be looking to average into some shorts both today and Friday as we should be topping this week and the next 2 weeks (or more) should start going down and making lower highs on the rallies back up.

While I'm not expecting some "fall off a cliff" move next week I am expecting the market to start a series of lower lows and lower highs next week.  So odds are strong that this week we'll see a very important high that should allow for another big drop toward that 1800 area lows again.  It's too early to know how long that will take so I'll just be taking shorts on those lower highs from each bounce and exiting when I see the lower support level hit, as I don't see some straight down move starting for awhile.

Author: Red

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