ES Morning Update March 22nd 2016

0
1503

e41f911c-34b4-4884-8612-3468248693e2Yesterday I talked about a raising trendline from th 1800 are low as support and a possible target on any pullback.  Today we are seeing that pullback to that trendline.

MACD's are finally rolling over but do note that they tend to turn back up around the zero line.  If they go below that line today then we will be seeing our first signs of a potential top to this rally.

It's still hard to be bearish with light volume in the market every day now.  We need some kind of news to wake up the bears.  Certainly we are very overbought but with the SPY upside FP, IWM upside FP from 2 weeks ago and the Apple upside FP from yesterday it's a pretty clear sign that they want the market higher.  Of course that doesn't rule out a pullback today so if they break the rising trendline from 1800 area low I'd again look for support in that 2015-2023 prior resistance (now support) zone.

So, I can only say that until the market first breaks down out of that rising channel/wedge and then goes back up for a lower high (and/or backtest) it's back to the old "buy the dip" crap from the last 7 years. However, I'll pass on that and just wait for the top to appear as I hate chasing the last 5-10% move of any uptrend.  You never know when the music stops and you're left standing without a chair to sit in... LOL