Sunday, May 26, 2024

ES Morning Update April 20th 2016

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Still hovering around this zone, which is common at a top

The MACD's don't really give much clues as they could go either way.

My thoughts here are that we are in a topping zone and will rollover soon.  Yesterday when we hit the FP on the SPY I suggested that we might not see any bigger move down until Thursday as I think we need some "news" to get the market going to the downside, and there's "market moving" news on that day.  So today could be a lot more chop as the bulls keep looking higher and the bears go to sleep.

Tops are usually drawn out and don't rollover quickly while bottoms are commonly fast as right after they get all the bulls to sell they trap the bears and squeeze them hard and fast.  Unfortunately for tops they don't work that way.  They take forever it seems to finally rollover, which is why the first bigger move down usually happens from some news event as no one wants to take the blame for a pullback.

Picking the exact day of a top is easy but I still think we are in a topping week where we won't go up too much farther before rolling over.  I thought we topped yesterday but it's right back up at that level again today, challenging that high.  I don't know yet if they go a little higher or not but I'm still looking for a 10-12% pullback into mid-June.

If this goes up the rest of this week and proves me wrong then I'll exit my shorts and take the loss.  That's part of trading, as losses do happen.  But, until this happens I'm happy to be short even if I missed the exact top by a little.  I play the bigger move which I'm still expecting to happen into June.

Red
Author: Red

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