ES Morning Update July 26th 2017

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2454

Still grinding higher a little each day it seems.  Today is the FOMC day so we might see some action after the minutes but lately the Fed days aren't much to write home about.  Everything they say is already expected to be said and everyone knows it.  So unless they say something no one is expecting it might be another boring day.  I'm still looking for a little higher though, like within 10-15 points of 2500 (or 15-20 over 2500... but not 2500 on the nose).  As far as charts go, we are overbought and have negative divergences everywhere.  But that doesn't matter when the market is waiting on news I guess.

My thoughts are that we'll continue this action until Friday where we could see the last important top before a correction starts.  Meaning that we could top today, drop small on Thursday and back up on Friday for a double top, lower high or maybe even a higher high... but next week I think we'll see some action start on the downside.  Of course it will be choppy but the moves down and back up should be larger.  This 5-10 point daily moves should be replaced with 20+ point days, both down and up as both bulls and bears get shaken.  We should test the 2450 area on the down move and then bounce some, but a move down is coming... and soon.  For today I'm just watching to see if the bulls can get an exhaustion move up where I can short it.  Maybe that will happen on Friday after a pullback tomorrow of 20 or more points?  Don't know but we are close to a top and I'm a patient bear.