Sunday, June 16, 2024

ES Morning Update February 28th 2018

Yesterday we rode the falling trendline for an hour or so and even had a quick "fake out" pierce move up through it. But then it rolled over and fell the rest of the day to hit the rising black trendline where I thought it would find support at... but it didn't. Instead it fell through it and found horizontal support from prior highs last week. This morning it's starting off looking pretty weak as short term charts are still bearishly aligned. My guess is that it will stay weak all day and might even rollover and drop to the downward sloping red trendline. Overall though I think it will turn back up tomorrow and into Friday for another "shake out" move to lure in some more bulls as it run up again and get the bears to finally throw in the towel on shorting. Meaning... I don't think the high is in yet for this move up. It may stretch out into Monday but I do think we aren't done yet on the upside... but very near it. If we close red today it will probably lure in enough bears to start another strong move up tomorrow. Possibly this is a wave 4 down of some degree? That would be my best guess at an Elliottwave count.

Now if we rally up to hit that falling trendline pointing to around 2780 today then I'd have to flip and say that tomorrow should be a down day. But if we stay slightly green or close down in the red (without breaking through that falling red trendline of support) then odds are good for a rally up tomorrow. Note that I've added a dark green rising trendline that will act as support today as well. Anyway, lets see who wins today... the bulls or the bears. Whoever takes today will lose tomorrow as a nice bullish move up today will setup a nice bearish move down tomorrow... and the reverse is also true. The exception to this would be if the bulls could get through the falling black trendline again today and make a higher high then yesterday. Then I'd expect that to continue into tomorrow (and possibly Friday) before stopping.

We've seen it too many times where the bulls don't pullback enough to let new traders get a nice long entry spot... which could happen again if they rally up again today and make another higher high. I'm not seeing it in the charts, instead I'm seeing weakness... like just riding the new dark green rising trendline up slowly today. Again, I'm overall bullish into this Friday and while it would be a great long entry spot if we closed red today right on the falling red trendline of support... but don't count on another down day today as bulls rarely let new traders get a great entry level and instead make them chase them higher and higher.

Author: Red

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