Friday, July 19, 2024

ES Morning Update April 26th 2018

Yesterday the bears were still in control the first two thirds of the day but later one the bulls finally broke out and started a push up. They hit some resistance from the green horizontal trendline after-hours as well as a black falling trendline. But after a pullback they have managed to turn back up and get through that falling black trendline and are trying hard to get through the green horizontal trendline. If they make it the next resistance is a green falling trendline pointing to about 2665 or so for today. I suspect that's where most trades will look to re-short and/or exit longs they took. But I'm just neutral at that level as this move up could fool people and last longer then everyone thinks... meaning it might stop at that resistance but instead of dropping hard again we might only see a small pullback of consolidation before pushing through it Friday or even Monday.

The large drop Tuesday took a lot of people by surprise and now that they are awake and ready for another big drop I think the odds are much lower for it to happen so soon. Yeah, it could still happen but more time needs to pass for people to forget about the most recent one. And people need to get bullish again, which I don't think they currently are. This is a game SkyNet plays with the sheep's emotions and right now everyone is in fear mode of another larger drop. Once enough time has past and the market has rallied up high enough then that's when we should start preparing for another hard and fast drop.

By no means am I saying that it's not coming as I do think we'll see another large move down, but it needs to come from higher levels then right now and further out in time. For the downside support we have the falling black trendline pointing to around 2635 today and then the red falling trendline pointing to 2610. I don't see that red one getting hit but the black is possible if the bulls can't get through the green horizontal trendline today. If they do get past it then again they should pause at the falling green trendline and likely pullback to the green horizontal one they busted through. It will become support then as well as the black rising trendline intersecting it around 2652 or so.

Author: Red

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