Friday, July 19, 2024

ES Morning Update July 10th 2018


Looks like yesterdays thoughts on the bulls continuing to control the market was right as they put in another nice up day. But today they are up against some tough resistance levels so I don't see this day being like yesterday. A chop drifting sideways day is more likely. Since I think the entire move up from around 2710 on 7/3 some kind of wave 3 then I'm expecting to see a wave 4 appear today or tomorrow.

Most likely we started on 6/28 at around 2694 for a wave 1 up that ended at 2744 on 6/29, then down to 2700 for the wave 2... which then started the wave 3 up, and it subdivided into 5 smaller waves. The first wave 1 up of that wave 3 up went from 2700 to a high of 2745 on 7/3, then down to 2710 for the wave 2 of the wave 3 up. That's where the fun began for the bulls as that's where the wave 3 up of wave 3 up happened. You could subdivide it further but it's not important as it's still a wave 3 of a wave 3 up and that's why it's been so strong.

Now since the move down for the wave 2 of wave 3 up was a normal straight wave pullback I expect the wave 4 down of wave 3 up (yet to happen) to do the opposite. It should take the path of a more sideways move (like a bull flag) or an ABC move. Now this wave 4 down is still inside a wave 3 up, so that means that a wave 5 up of wave 3 up should follow it. So for example let's say that today we drift down about 10 points but it's mostly a sideways pattern. As you know that's a bull flag pattern, which suggests that it will breakout to the upside afterwards.

Ok, so about 10 points down or sideways would put us right into the rising blue trendline of support (was resistance yesterday). From there we'd see the wave 5 up of wave 3 up to breakthrough the June 11th-14th horizontal resistance zone, and most likely move up to the horizontal trendline of resistance around 2814 where the market topped back on 3/13 of this year. That should end all five waves up of this wave 3 up, then next would be a wave 4 down which I'd guess will be an ABC move and one that would be in the 20-30 point range.

Oddly, the rising trendline that the market hit this morning before the open (and backed off) will likely be the pullback target in the future for that wave 4 down. Then there should be a wave 5 up to end the entire 5 wave move from the 6/28 starting point of 2694. I'd guess that would end at the rising green trendline pointing to around 2845 right now. All in all the bulls have this market right now and any drops should be temporary.

Author: Red

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