This Monday morning we see the ES Futures some but they were higher last night and fell back some and are now back up for a lower high. Was that a wave 1 down and wave 2 up right now before the open? Only time will tell.
I took a short on Friday so you just know that the futures had to go up this morning and try to shake me out. But I'm in IWM and it's not up much as the ES, so hopefully I'll be fine. I do think we'll get a pullback this week, and it should be just enough to shake out the bulls and lure in the bears.
Then we can go back up again and make another stab at the all time highs. When you look at it on a 60 minute chart the recent early June low looks like a "Head" and the May 13th low looks like the "Left Shoulder", so we just need the "Right Shoulder" to form now and then we can go up again.
This week might start off slow but odds are still pretty good for a low by the end of the week or sooner to make this right shoulder. For today though the futures seem to be stuck in a rising channel and might not breakdown at all today but instead gap down out of it tomorrow to fool the most. That's just me trying to think like SkyNet... hey, that would be a cool logo on a T-shirt! LOL. You know what? If I were SkyNet I'd take it up a little higher today (then the Sunday night high of 2898) to trick every bear that's thinking of shorting today. Then tomorrow I'd gap up again and do a full reversal and go down the rest of the week to shake out the bulls.
I hope that isn't the plan as I'm ready for it to drop asap but that certainly would shake some shorts out. I just feel that when a setup is too obvious (meaning a lot of good traders and chartists I follow are saying the same thing) it rarely plays out. A lot of people are probably shorting this triple top zone and maybe they need squeezed out first? I don't know? But I just can't buy this rally. I still think down first and then up again... and probably down again.
We could see a lot of moves up and down this summer before it breaks out to the upside in a trend or down side. These swings though are quite large so if you can catch them they are well worth playing.
