Saturday, July 13, 2024

ES Morning Update June 11th 2019

On IWM there's and afterhour "possible" FP of 152.82, which is close to getting hit here in the premarket session. I suspect it will be hit and that will top it out as a lower high then yesterday to make a wave 2 up of some degree. If so, then it should start down at some point today I'd suspect (again, assuming it doesn't make a higher high then yesterdays 153.14 top).

This of course should apply to the ES Futures and the SPX/SPY too as they move together most of the time. I still think we drop to the lower FP on IWM mentioned yesterday in the coming days.

That FP was put out afterhours/premarket last Tuesday, June 4th... so we should see the rest of the market pullback to a similar level would be my best guess. When I look at the SPY it was in the 277 area, so that's the 2770's on the SPX and ES, which seems pretty far down as I know that other good traders and chartists are looking for a pullback to only the 2800 area. I guess if everyone is looking for the same area SkyNet will be forced to fall shy of it, or pierce it and run all the stops of bulls buying.

Everything seems super bullish right now but I have to believe in the FP's as they've been great over the years... very accurate. Problem is that I just don't know the "when" part? I can only guess at it and the reason I'm "guessing" it's going to happen before this week is over with is because of several factors.

First, we had a triple top that got pierced yesterday, so bears got stops ran on them for sure. This morning they are doing it again with the market up once more. Second, we had a prior upside FP from about 2 weeks ago that was hit and fulfilled yesterday. It's common for them to go past it a little bit but most of the time they stop and turn back the other way shortly afterwards. Third, we've had 5 green closes in a row on the DOW and it's overdue for a red close. Fourth, the VIX didn't really want to go down that much yesterday with the market rallying up. It seems to be trying to base and hold support before another turn up. It at least is saying the the upside is limited from here, if not also saying a turn back down is coming soon. So I remain short, and painfully short. Have a great day.

Author: Red

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