Saturday, July 20, 2024

ES Morning Update June 17th 2024

We have the roll from the June contract on the ES to the September now, which added 58 points on it instantly. I forgot about that when I did the wave count last week, so now it's busted as we are going higher and it's looking like the FET of 5618.39 could be hit before we get a serious move down.

The rising white trendline held for awhile but this contract roll caused a gap over it, so now it will be support. Of course we are overbought now on all charts pretty much, which is from the weekly to the daily and the 6hr chart. Here's the weekly...

So if, that's a BIG "if", we do rally up to the FET this week the market will be super overbought then and I could see nasty fast drop happen afterwards. I mean we could see something like the drop that happened after the January 2018 top, which was super fast. The charts will be that overbought if we rally up to 5618.39, which is crazy to think it could do it but we all know that overbought charts can get more and more overbought. Below is the daily chart...

The FET on the SPX is only 5581.86, so we could see this happen for sure as it's not too much high on either the cash or futures.  As far as turn dates, if we are going to rally up first, the 28th of this month will be the next important one.  So if we go no where this week but instead we just build another bull flag then I'd think we'll hit the FET on the 28th to finally top this market out.

I thought that we'd actually go down into the 28th, which is still possible, but we'd have to top today I think.  If that happens then we can drop into the 28th to put in a low before another strong move up happens.  Now if this happens I don't think it will be that deep, basically just a higher low.

However, if instead we rally up to the FET into the 28th then we could have a very serious drop follow, and possibly then that FP on the SPY is hit... who knows for sure?  All I can say is that the FET is a magnet and could be hit before any real move down happens.

Have a blessed day.

Author: Red

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