Saturday, July 13, 2024

ES Morning Update July 8th 2024

I went ahead an took the day off last Friday even though the market was open. It was another up day as expected and we finally hit and pierced the short term FET at 5618, so a pullback of some degree is likely soon. With the CPI this Wednesday,and the FOMC meeting too, somewhere around there we should get move down.

But... the FET was from the 4963 low up to the 5368 high on 5/23, so it's only a short term pullback most likely. The bigger picture suggest we go higher into August, possibly September, where we hit the next FET at 6082, which is a medium term one that started at the 4122 low on 10/27/23 and connects to the 5333 high on 4/1/24. The ultimate upside target (a HUGE blow off top if this happens?) is the FET from the 3502 low in October of 2022 (a large FET) that connects to the same 5333 high, and projects 6465... and the super interesting thing about that FET is that it's super close to the ultimate FET that starts at the 2020 low of 2174 and connects to the 4808 high in 2022.

That one targets 6435, so if there's going to be a huge crash after the election I'd have to think that we'll reach that target beforehand. Longer term the best thing for the economy would be for that to fail and top at the 6082 high in August and pullback 1000-2000 points into 2025. Then start another bull run that last until 2028 possibly. That's too far into the future to figure out, so let's not worry about it now.

For the short term I'm looking for 200-300 point pullback this week and/or into next week. It's hard to predict the date as it could happen very fast. But I suspect it will be some ABC move where we get the A and B this week and the C next week. Basically about a 38.2% pullback of the rally up from the 4965 low to the current high, which is 200-300 points roughly.

Have a blessed day.

Author: Red

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