Yesterday almost broke though the falling white trendline but it held again, so change in the forecast. However, I do want to point out that between now and Sunday (in the futures), if we make a higher high on the DOW and SPX (I don't think the NDX can do it), then we will likely have topped as this is a turn window. But it requires a new high to trigger.
I don't think it will but it certainly could happen, and if it does I'd look for a pullback next week for the first leg down and a rally back up into the 18th for a lower high (the B wave?), and then the nasty C wave down afterwards. If this happens I'll adjust but right now it's looking like we'll breakout early next week and skip the "end of the month" turn window. Not much else to say, so have a great 3 day holiday weekend.
Have a blessed day.
The market topped on September 3rd in 1929. That was a Tuesday following a Labor Day just like this year. It was also a new moon, and 9-3 will have a new moon also.
Tuesday will be a Fib 34 trading days from the July highs. There was a similar 34 trading day high-high pattern late December 2022 to early Feb 2023. Those were in the early days of this run. possible wave 1 material (the end of it or wave 1 of 3?)
Or it could start the new month down big like in June 2011 but we’re a little behind schedule on that. It’s going to take a few days to get sells. AAII bullishness is very high.
I think they are going to drag this out into November where we top out at and start a recession.