Friday did indeed start the C wave down that I've been looking for to unfold. It was just the wave 1 inside the C and the wave 2 bounce started after about midday, and then we pulled back again into the close. It looks like the wave 2 up in unfolding in an ABC and the first bounce was the A, then the B down afterward, which right after the close the C up started.
Once that is finished we should see the wave 3 down inside the C start. It too will likely subdivide into 5 waves to make it tricky to figure out, but my best guess is that it finishes around the 12/20 low, then we bounce for the wave 4 and finally the wave 5 takes out that low and we hit the 1.618% extension of 5681 on the ES into early next week. This is the less bearish case, whereas there's a more bearish case too, and it's on the chart below.
With the more bearish case the wave 5 doesn't finish until we reach the FP on the SPY of 533.01 (around 5380-5400 ES), which is possible but I think it's less likely. Do I still think the FP will be hit? Yes, but not now. I think the less bearish scenario will play out and that we'll see the FP hit in February, which suggests we'll see a strong January rally up to around the 20th, and that could take until the 27th or so.
Call it that week basically, and from there we should rollover again and drop into another 5 wave move for a bigger C wave down. It's at that point I think we could see the FP on the SPY hit, which might be mid-late February. Once all of these waves finish so will the large wave 4, and next should be a 5 wave move up into August for the final wave 5, and it should reach 6500+ (which is supported by an upside FP I have on the SPY that points to that area).
In conclusion, I'm basically looking for around 5700 on the ES into early next week and that should finish waves 3, 4, and 5 of a C, which "probably" will end up ONLY being a larger degree A wave inside an even larger 4 wave. It's possible that the 4 wave completes on this move but I really give it low odds. Most likely it subdivides and finishes in February.
Have a blessed day.
