Ok, we finally got some supports break and it's looking like we have topped short term and we are starting the pullback for wave 4, which on my Main Wave Count is Small Wave 4 and on my Alternative Wave Count it's Tiny Wave 4.
In both cases the pullback should be to around the falling white trendline, and that's roughly the 5600 level on the ES. Maybe we stop shy and only reach the 5700 level where all the lows are at from the 10/2-10/7 period but usually they will hit the stops on the bulls first to shake them out and lure in bears looking for a deeper drop. From there (below 5700 down to 5600) they can bottom and then rally hard to over 6000, and that could very well be right into the election.
I think it will reach either the FET at 6082 or the FET at 6189, and that will complete a 5th wave up, which on both wave counts it will mark an important top that should be followed by a drop to my FP on the SPY of 483 in November/December. After that is where the wave counts diverge with the Main Wave Count marking the high as "the top" and a bear market to follow and the Alternative Wave Count having one more higher high first, like to my FET of 6435... then a bear market.
We'll cross that road when we get there. For the short term I'm looking for any bounces today to just be shorting spots as we drop into the 5600's for wave 4, which should unfold in an ABC pattern, and then a squeeze to new highs into the election with 6082 as the most likely target.
Have a blessed day.
