Wednesday likely ended the first pullback from the October 6th "first high" area. If so, then the expected low cycle date of the 16th "could" have arrived early? We could still pullback into that date but it might be a higher low instead of "the low" for the ABC down from the current all time high, which is likely a wave 4, and that leaves just the wave 5 up left to hit the FP of 787.13 on the SPY.
It's still unknown if the wave 4 down is complete or not, as the drop on Wednesday looked like a wave 3 inside a C wave, and that opens the door for a wave 4 bounce today and wave 5 down tomorrow to finish that C wave. Or, the wave C ended at the low on Wednesday and the bounce today is a wave 1 up in the final 5th wave, with any pullback on Friday being a wave 2 of that wave 5 up. Into the close Wednesday there was a small bounce for a wave 4, and the futures did a wave 5 down, which again, could have ended it all that day.
Below is a chart of the wave count if the low was Wednesday...
The "second high" windows is next week the 20th-22nd, but it might hit earlier since it's possible that we bottomed earlier (at least so far that seems likely). Meaning... it could be 16th-19th. Wouldn't it be crazy to see tomorrow put in the high into the close before the weekend? It's possible, and would take everyone by surprise if no one is short and Monday opens down and keeps going down.
That doesn't have to happen of course as tomorrow could still go a little lower, but either way we still have the final 5th wave up still coming and it should top early next week at the latest, and since the market failed to hit the 787.13 FP on the first high it must hit it this next time as that window is the last point where a high of some degree can appear before the cycles say we go down into the election.
Below is a chart if there's one more lower low on Friday...
In both cases there's still one more move up and once done there shouldn't be any bears left. For me, this is the short of a lifetime as the speed of it will be so fast that it will look and feel like a crash. I guess you can call it a mini crash or flash crash, but I view a crash as more like 20% or higher.
This coming drop will only be 12% (assuming the downside FP's are the target low), but it's still a huge money maker for those brave enough to short it. And the 50%-61.8% fast bounce back up is another huge money maker, which I will be playing too. It's been a long time waiting for this FP and everything points to getting hit early next week. Once hit very few will short the market as it will put the ES very close to 8000, like 7950-7960 roughly, so most traders will wait for 8000 as it's a magnet for the market they will say. That's true, but it won't hit on the first attempt. It should hit late in the year, like during the Christmas rally possibly.
Others won't be focused on the 8000 so much but will be thinking the market will top into the election and crash afterwards, but that should not happen. Prior cycles all point to a low into the election, or right in front of it a few days, and a rally afterwards. What could cause the drop you ask? Who knows? It really doesn't matter as something will be blamed on it, but really it's just in the cycles.
Maybe it will be something to do with the election? Maybe that "thing" will force Trump to send out the National Guard to the polling booths to make sure the elections aren't stolen again? Just speculation here on that, but something will be blamed for the drop and it's not for me to worry about what that "something" is. Just stay focused on the 787.13 FP getting hit into the cycle window of the 20th-22nd and short it. Then look for the 7063 FP on the ES and/or the 692 FP on the SPY as the exit points, and areas to get long for the big bounce. It's been a long wait but it's all about to play out next week. Good luck to everyone.
Have a great weekend.
