We got the breakdown I was looking for, which is getting close to oversold on the short term (6hr chart) and did get oversold on the 1hr and 2hr charts. With the election just a few weeks away I do think we will remain in a rangebound area as the uncertainty of it should keep both a big breakdown or breakout from happening as traders wait for the results. For the short term, a possible wave count could be the following...
Because the 6hr chart is close, but not yet fully oversold, I have to think the downside from yesterdays low is not too much further. Most likely the drop was a wave 3 inside a C wave and the bounce into the close was a wave 4, which leaves a 5 wave down still left, which should get the RSI oversold enough to complete the 5 waves down for the C, which is inside a bigger A wave.
Then we should rally on Friday (even start late today if we drop early?) that might carry into Monday of next week (not sure there on the day?). Once that bigger B wave is over with a C wave down should follow to (most likely) take out the stops below the 10/3 and 10/7 lows (around 5730), meaning we could hit and pierce the 5700 level?
Another possible wave count is below, which has the same results of hitting the 5700 zone by next Monday to end this pullback.
At that point I have to think the pullback is over with and that we'll start the last move up to 6100+ into mid-late November.
That Medium 5th Wave will have subdivide into the 5 Small Waves, and those will subdivide into Tiny Waves of course. I lean toward the top into the end of November, into Thanksgiving when volume will be really light. That will setup Medium Wave 4 down in December, which I think will hit my fake print on the SPY of 483. but we'll have to cross that road when it gets there.
Have a blessed day.
