Still a boring market and I'm still waiting until the "time" and "price" is right, which for me is the 787.13 FP on the SPY, and window where it should be hit is between September 22nd to October 2nd. Between now and then I think we will continue to stay range-bound between the current all time high and the 7500 zone, which I think we'll see that low hit into September 9th-11th.
Right now I think we finished an A wave down and are in a B wave up now, which should end early September and then a C wave down into the 9th-11th where I think we'll see 7500 or so. Now that's not much of a change from last weeks post, but on that last post I suggested the low on the 26th-31st would end the wave 4 down and the low around 9/11 would be a higher low. Now I think it will be a lower low and that's where we'll end the wave 4 down.
From there the last move up into late September should happen, and while we could get some massive squeeze to 8400 or something I just don't see it. I give it low odds as I believe in the FFP will mark the high. Everyone will be long looking for 8000+ and it won't happen. From that high we should decline into the election where a final low should appear. There are two downside FP's that could mark that low, which are 692 and 600.14 on the SPY. I do not know which one will be the target, but as the decline gets going we should know what path it is going to taken by the "time" it takes to hit the first target.
Meaning that if we hit the 692 FP by mid-October then we can speculate that we are declining in an ABC where the 692 FP is the A wave and the C wave would end early November at the 600.14 FP. But if we chop around most of October then we could see some 8-10 day drop for a C wave into the 692 FP by the election. If that happens then we won't see the 600.14 FP hit whatever low we get into early November will be "the low" and we'll rally hard the rest of the year. This is just a waiting game for me as I'm not doing anything until September 22nd to October 2nd where I'll look to short the 787.13 FP and target the 692 FP into November 6th or so. Then I'll wait to see if the FP is hit early or if it hits at the last week of October in the election.
Have a great weekend.
