Getting close now to the low. Charts everywhere are oversold or very near it. My big question is... "Will this low finish the correction?". That's something I don't know for sure as while I do see a strong rally back up after the low I do not know if it's the rally up to new, even higher highs, or a lower high. My lean is for a lower high, a larger B wave basically, then a C down in September. Here's what I posted in the chatroom yesterday.

The reason I feel this way is because the weekly chart needs more time to "cool off" before another strong multi-month rally to new all time highs. It is pointing down on the MACD and the RSI, so it's going to be very hard to stage a long lasting rally with such negative downward pressure on the market.

But another higher high is still likely because the monthly chart is still bullish with no sighs of a final high yet.   In fact, this month of July has put in higher volume on it then prior months, so that's another clue the bull market isn't finished yet. Now that doesn't mean we can't have a good sized correction but there should not be anything like 2022.

That entire year the market was under the 200 daily simple moving average and we've been above it ever since. Could we pierce through it for awhile? Sure, but we shouldn't stay under it for a year like 2022 as the MACD's on the monthly chart back then was going down, so was the volume. It's still pointing up now, so this market has not seen any final high in my opinion.

As for the short term, I still think we will bottom in by next Monday, and we might have bottomed yesterday... I'm not sure? But we are close right now.

Have a great weekend.

The prior low for my bigger A wave down was taken out yesterday, so that means the bigger B wave up finished at Tuesdays high. It did not subdivide into a smaller ABC up. We should now be in the bigger C wave now, which should unfold in 5 waves. Yesterdays drop was the smaller wave 1, which will be followed by a smaller wave 2 bounce. This could all complete by the end of this month.

The daily chart on the RSI is working its' way lower and could reach oversold in a week. If it does then I'd have to lean toward an early rally up in the first few days of August that fails to make a new high. Then a pullback into the second week for a higher low, which would make an inverted head and shoulders pattern and be very bullish for another higher high into September.

That's my "lean" but I could be wrong of course.  The clue will be to see how the coming low finishes.  If it's a clean ABC, and the technicals on the weekly look like we could have another higher high, then I'll stick with my lean.  But if we end this move down in 5 waves I'll then have to consider that it's just one bigger A wave and that we'll only make a lower high with the rally back up into August/September.

If that happens we'll see an even larger move down to follow for a much bigger C wave.  It would then re-open the door for those 2 FP's on the SPY from the Yahoo to be the target low.  We'll have to keep a close eye on how the coming low unfolds as that will give us the clues.

As for today, we could bounce late into it, or sometime Friday.  But I don't think it's finished yet.  "Time" is the important then here, not the price.  So "time wise" I think it's going to be next week before we see a bottom.  We could see it Sunday/Monday but it could be revisited late in the week after a mid-week rally fails to hold.  The end of the month is where many bigger "turns" happen.

Meaning that if we get a low on Sunday/Monday, and start a strong rally back up, it would either be a wave 1 or A wave, which late in the week will be followed by a wave 2 or B wave down.  That one could revisit whatever low we get in the next few days.  My thoughts on it still suggest the rising green trendline.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, the plan is playing out as expected as we should be in a B wave down inside a bigger B wave up, which should top out into next week. Now if the recent low is taken out then there's a different wave count in play, but for now it hasn't and I'm sticking with the current wave count that projects a C wave up next inside a bigger B wave. I'll end it here.

Have a blessed day.

Ok, we got the bounce as expected, which could go higher still as the RSI and MACD's on the 6 hour chart have plenty of room to run higher. But, I tend to think this rally up will be an ABC and that we are just in the A wave now. I won't know until I see what happens on the next pullback, but I lean toward it being a higher low (the B wave) and then another C wave up into the end of this week or into the end of this month.

It looks too strong of a bounce to be a wave 4 with a wave 5 down still left to come... which would then complete the A wave down. I think the A wave down already ended at the recent low as it's a clean looking 5 wave pattern and again... this bounce is too strong for a wave 4. Keep in mind that most (not all) C waves subdivide into 5 smaller waves. So if we are in an A up inside an ABC of a bigger B wave then the C part could drag out into the end of this month.

The Seasonality Chart has been off some this year but does get back on track after brief periods of not being in-sync. the middle of July is a choppy (pause type) period and we did get the recent pullback from the 16th to the 19th, so that's close to working. The first part of July is bullish and that worked out perfectly, and the last part of July is bullish, so that's when we could see the C wave up inside the B wave. Then the first week of August is bearish, so that could be the C wave inside the C wave to complete the ABC down from the 5721 high. Here's what I'm thinking...

Have a blessed day.

So far so good. Last Friday failed to hold any early rally and went lower intot the close as I expected. I think we are going to get an early rally this week to possibly as high as 5630 roughly? But then I think it fails and we have another drop lower into the end of the week and possibly the end of this month. At this point I think we are headed to the rising green trendline over the next week or so, which is in the mid-5400's.

If this happens then I think we will be oversold enough to start a rally in August, but I don't know how high it's going? It could just be a B wave up with the drop to the rising green trendline being the A wave... or the correction could be over with and we start the last rally up into September/November, which is really what my lean is. Meaning that I think the coming low will be it and then we'll start another 5 wave rally up into the election, which should top prior to it, like in September probably.

If it's some blow off top then it could be up to the 6000+ area? I have added a new FET that uses the 5205.50 recent low and the current high of 5721.25, which projects 6039.98, and the FET from the 10/27/23 low of 4122.25 to the 4/1/24 high of 5333.50 projects a high of 6082.46, so there's two FET's pointing to the same zone. This tells me it's a magnet to hit the 6000 zone, so let's not rule it out as we go into the super important FOMC meeting on September 18th. We all know that this market has been front running a Trump victory in the November election so that could be a "sell the news" event. And if the Fed's cut rates history tells us that the market will drop afterwards.

As for the short term I lean toward a rally early this week that gets sold off with one more move lower before any solid rally can stick.

Have a blessed day.

Inched a little higher yesterday on the ES but not the NQ as it's slowing rolling over, so the ES will follow, but again, it might drag out for several more weeks. There's not a lot to add here as timing the exact top is never easy, but as I said, the month of July is usually bullish, so any pullback this month shouldn't be a lot. It's the second half of August that I'll be expecting some kind of real pullback to occur. Here's a chart of the NQ...

Have a blessed day.

We hit the FET of 5713 yesterday and pierced it a few points. Then we pulled back nicely, which has the look and feel of a top of some kind. Maybe we still have on more higher high in early August, I don't know? But this market looks very tired right now. I still don't see some big drop happening but we could have seen the high and will now start a choppy multi-hundred point range the next few weeks.

Something like an A down and B up basically, which again, should be choppy and drawn out in time. July is just not a bearish month, so odds are it will not produce any big move down. But the second half of August is historically bearish so I have to think we won't see anything big until then. As for today I don't have much to added as the technicals on the short term are hard too predict due to the light volume, so I'll just end it here.

Have a blessed day.

Last Friday we saw a rally back up to put in a slightly higher high of 5708 on the ES, which I didn't see coming, but again... this market is still super bullish right now so "surprises" are more likely on the upside then downside. But I still think we are less likely to start another multi-hundred up then down.

The market looks tired to me and should pullback some this, which might continue for a few weeks before it trys another push higher in August. Remember, going sideways in a choppy range will reset short term overbought charts in "time" versus a sharp short term drop that resets it in "price". Meaning that this could still go a little higher into August before we see that 8-10% pullback happen.

My short term FET of 5618.39 from the 4963.50 low on 4/18/24 that connects to the 5/22/24 high of 5362.25 (I had a typo of 5368.25 previously, but corrected it) gave a 5608.68 FET (previously 5618), which was basically hit (fell shy a little) with the high of 5588 on 6/20/24.

That was a shorter term FET of course and produced a "pause" as the market went sideways for a couple weeks before going higher. So the FET was accurate for the most part, but since it was a shorter term one it didn't produce much of a pullback, but went sideways instead. If I did another projection from that sideways pullback I'd get an FET of 5824.39, which could be the next target for sometime in August?

However, that's an even smaller time frame FET and it really wasn't much of a pullback at all. So I'd rather look back for a bigger FET as it's likely going to be more powerful. When I look at the 4702 low from 1/5/24. to the 3/31/24 high of 5333.50 I get an FET of 5723.77, which would be a more powerful magnet then the shorter term one at 5824.39, so to me that would be the ideal target in August if we spend the next few weeks chopping around between 5500-5700 I think.

I'm not saying that we can't break that support zone and do the 8-10% drop here in July but usually it's a more bullish month with August being the more bearish one... especially the second half of the month.

Have a blessed day.

We finally started a pullback, so now we wait and watch for the charts to get reset, which I don't think they will get fully oversold on the daily chart, and certainly not the weekly. The monthly is still super bullish so this pullback might last into early August to allow the extremely overbought weekly and daily charts to cool off, but after this pullback I think we rally hard for many more months.

How deep we pullback will decide how high we go and how long it last, so if it's just a mild pullback then we could top out faster but if it's a deep enough pullback then we could rally into the end of the year. Guessing the price on this is next to impossible, but there are some obviously targets based on support levels. The rising green trendline is the first one, and there's no point even looking at the lower one's until we see what happen in the next few weeks first. Here's a chart I posted in the chatroom yesterday.

This is the most bullish outlook with the smallest pullback and of course I'll have to adjust as time goes forward. Just keep in mind that the monthly chart is super bullish right now and the volume confirms it, so don't get crazy bearish if we get a deep pulllback.

Have a great weekend.

Yesterday I said there was an FOMC meeting and a CPI release, but I was wrong. It was only Jay Powell speaking and the CPI is this morning. I got my days off it seems... sorry about that. The market did what felt like a blow off squeeze the last part of yesterday, and with the CPI this morning that could be the case?

It's very overbought on most all time frames, so while the pullback might not be much in price (several hundred points), or percentage (4-6% ?), I do think it's going to require more "time" to play out. Meaning it should not be a 2-3 day event but instead it should drag out for 2-3 week I think. That's because the technicals will need that much time to cool off and reset before making another strong push higher. But everything points to that happening into late this year with 6000+ very possible.

The monthly chart is still very bullish, and the June closing candle actually put in a higher volume then the prior months. That means too me that as long as there is higher volume the market will go up more. It's only when you see a divergence between the volume and price that you know a top is near.

Currently that's not the case as volume continues to be strong. Where is that money coming from you ask? I don't know but possibly from foreign investors as they think our US Market is safer then theirs. And of course we don't know for sure but it's likely the Fed is pumping money into it to try and prop up the economy for "weekend at Bidens".

Regardless of who is doing it the facts are the facts, last months volume was the highest in the last year plus, any pullback we get in the coming weeks will be bought and another higher high in the following months will follow.

Have a blessed day.

More chop yesterday, but today we have the CPI and the FOMC, so there should be some volatility today. I really don't have much to add, as again, we are in the summer doldrums with light volume, which favors the upside.

A short term pullback is near but I don't know the exact day. It could last only 2-3 days or drag out for a week plus, but the final high is not in yet. After the pullback I'll start looking for the 6082 FET in the coming weeks to months. For today I'd just be prepared to see some kind of movement in both direction with an overall bearish lean into next week.

Have a blessed day.

Grinding a little higher, but that's fine as I'm patient and just waiting to see if the pullback happens as taking short right now is suicide in my opinion. Better to look for oversold charts to get long for a squeeze. This Wednesday when the CPI comes out before the open and later the FOMC is the most likely period where a turn can happen. But don't forgot the common pattern for FOMC days to close green.

They can be a turning period for sure but I've noticed a pattern over the years where the Thursday and Friday after any Fed day stays high and delays any bigger drop until the following week. Meaning we could see the on the Fed day and do a small A down Thursday and B up Friday, which leaves the C down for the following week. I'm not looking for a huge drop now, just about a 38.2% pullback from the 4965 low to the high. That could be 200-300 points basically. It's summer time right now and very hard to trade. It's a period to just take off and relax for many traders, which is why the volume is light. Nothing more to add so I'll end it here.

Have a blessed day.

I went ahead an took the day off last Friday even though the market was open. It was another up day as expected and we finally hit and pierced the short term FET at 5618, so a pullback of some degree is likely soon. With the CPI this Wednesday,and the FOMC meeting too, somewhere around there we should get move down.

But... the FET was from the 4963 low up to the 5368 high on 5/23, so it's only a short term pullback most likely. The bigger picture suggest we go higher into August, possibly September, where we hit the next FET at 6082, which is a medium term one that started at the 4122 low on 10/27/23 and connects to the 5333 high on 4/1/24. The ultimate upside target (a HUGE blow off top if this happens?) is the FET from the 3502 low in October of 2022 (a large FET) that connects to the same 5333 high, and projects 6465... and the super interesting thing about that FET is that it's super close to the ultimate FET that starts at the 2020 low of 2174 and connects to the 4808 high in 2022.

That one targets 6435, so if there's going to be a huge crash after the election I'd have to think that we'll reach that target beforehand. Longer term the best thing for the economy would be for that to fail and top at the 6082 high in August and pullback 1000-2000 points into 2025. Then start another bull run that last until 2028 possibly. That's too far into the future to figure out, so let's not worry about it now.

For the short term I'm looking for 200-300 point pullback this week and/or into next week. It's hard to predict the date as it could happen very fast. But I suspect it will be some ABC move where we get the A and B this week and the C next week. Basically about a 38.2% pullback of the rally up from the 4965 low to the current high, which is 200-300 points roughly.

Have a blessed day.

Yesterdays morning dip was bought right up as support held once again. We are close now to a breakout to hit the FET at 5618, which will run the stops on the bears shorting right now. Maybe it happens today, or tomorrow... I don't know? But we are close now. However, as I said yesterday, we might not see any strong move down until after the FOMC (and CPI) next Wednesday. But if we top this week then we could crave out a series of wave 1's down and 2's up (or A's and B's) to setup a bigger drop late next week. It's summer so don't get too excited as typically it's very boring.

Have a blessed day.

Still a lot of going nowhere yesterday as the market continues to chop. There's really nothing I can say that hasn't already been yesterday. I lean toward this Wednesday for the last push up, which is because it should be the lightest volume day, or Friday, which might be even lighter.

Once the Fibonacci Extension Target is hit I think we'll start a real pullback afterwards. But while I think it will be hit this week I could be wrong as they could wait until the CPI next Wednesday on the 11th to hit it and then start the pullback. Plus you have a Fed meeting that day too. Right now though we are in the "dog days of summer" where the market is boring and goes nowhere until some "event" sparks a big move, which should be aligned to overbought or oversold technicals. Patience is golden as the old saying goes.

Have a blessed day.

The market has spent the last several weeks in a choppy rangebound zone making another bull flag... but will it result in another month long rally? Anything is possible but I doubt if it happens this time around. The reason I say that is based on the past and how the technicals are aligned now, which similar patterns produced pullbacks from. Let's look at the daily chart below for example.

On it you will see that the MACD's and RSI were overbought during the prior similar patterns, just like they are now. And they produced a pullback in all the recent cases, which some were small and others bigger, but a pullback still happened. I'm only covering the period after the market bottomed in 2022 and started back up as we have to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges... meaning uptrends to uptrends and downtrends to downtrends.

At point 1 the weekly chart was very oversold but the daily got overbought on the MACD and almost overbought on the RSI. A pullback happened, which was a backtest of the 200 day moving average, a common event when the downtrend is ending and an uptrend starting. Point 2 gave only a small pullback, which I'm sure was because the weekly chart was pointing up strongly from being very oversold on its' MACD's and the RSI around neutral. It would have been foolish to short it back then based on that alignment, and the smarter move would have been to wait on the MACD on the daily chart to turn back up and go long. Point 3 gave us a deeper pullback because the MACD on the weekly chart reached the overbought level. Chart below.

As you can see now on the weekly (and daily) charts the pullback from point 3 needed to be a bigger one because both the charts got overbought on the MACD's and RSI. When more time frames align together there's always a bigger move, whether up or down, and in that case it was down.

At point 4 the weekly chart was pushing up strong again on it's MACD and RSI, reach the same overbought level as on point 3, but that strength keep the pullback small from the daily. Point 5 is where the weekly chart got very overbought on its' MACD and RSI but the daily chart only a little overbought, which is the opposite of point 3. But it still produced a nice pullback as pressure from the weekly forced the daily chart to rollover. As you can figure out by now the deepest pullbacks were from periods where both the weekly and daily charts got overbought and I must conclude that from looking at both charts currently they appear to be overbought together again.

Therefore there's little left on the upside on my opinion before we see a nice pullback. My FET at 5618 is still on the table I think and should be hit this week. I say that because of the expected light volume due to the holiday on Thursday for the 4th of July. But next week every trader should be back and the volume with it. So going into the 2nd week of July is where I think we could see a nice pullback happen.

Have a blessed day.

A rangebound market all week as expected. Today we rally some to close out this week and the month of June. The market is resting now before the next big move, which I still think is down 8-10%, but of course it could be up too. I mean, overbought charts can get more overbought, but they still suggest the move will be a down move. If we reach the FET next week, which seems likely to me, then the following week I'd look for the pullback. Light volume is very likely next week due to the 4th of July holiday, which tends to favor the upside, and as long as that happens the move after traders come back should be a down one. Nothing more to add here as this week has been as expected.

Have a great weekend.

The market is still under pressure from the bears but holding the range quite well. We have Jobless Claims out this morning, so we could see some small volatility, as well as GDP numbers. Overall though I'm still waiting for the last move up to hit the FET at 5618, which I think will be next week due to the expected light volume from the 4th of July holiday. Support is still the rising white trendline, and if it gets pierced the rising green trendline should hold. I don't think it will be hit but certainly possible. If we get more weakness today and part of tomorrow, then it will setup next week for that last move up.

Have a blessed day.

Another boring day yesterday, and today will probably be the same. There's just nothing to add that hasn't already been covered on Monday and this week is playing out as expected... a lot of chop. I don't have anything new to add as I still think we have one more move higher to hit my FET at 5618, and I think it will be hit before the 4th of July. My best guess is the 3rd but I could be wrong and we could hit it this week. We shall see.

Have a blessed day.