Yesterday I said in the chatroom I thought we'd go up in 5 or 7 waves, and we had the wave 1 up at the open and wave 2 down the rest of the day. This morning we see the futures up nicely in what is likely the wave 3 up. It could be all one wave or subdivide, but right now it looks like one strong wave. However, it's hitting resistance now from a falling trendline of a channel, as well as hitting the gap fill area from Friday.

So there could be some kind of small pullback here if it can't push through it on the first attempt, but I wouldn't short it as it should be small and it will likely push though it at some point anyway. Common patterns are for a wave 3 up to push though the resistance and then drop back afterwards to make the former resistance support now. That might happen today as well. If so, then that pullback should be a wave 4 down with a wave 5 up into the close on Wednesday now looking possible.

I was really thinking we'd rally after the impeachment vote but the opposite seems to be happening instead. Front running the vote smells of a dump in the market afterwards, which tells me we could top out tomorrow by the close and then drop on Thursday. Maybe the vote doesn't go as expected, or some other piece of news is released to spook the market... I don't know? I'll just keep it one day at a time and right now the market is up nicely and should continue into Wednesday from the looks of things.

It's not exactly like I thought, as far as time, but the pattern is what I thought. Another possibility is that this wave 3 up doesn't stop unti it hits a double top area tomorrow, which then suggests a wave 4 down on Thursday, and wave 5 back up into Friday. So keep that in mind as well, but I'm leaning toward it all being finished by the close on Wednesday. May your guardian angel always guide you in your life.

Well, so much for the large B wave up lasting into this week as Fridays drop was clearly a C wave of some degree. Since it's about the length of the large A down it might be complete or will finish up today or Tuesday. The impeachment trial is supposed to be over with this Wednesday, which might be a turn day in the market. The market is certainly close to a big squeeze but I'm not sure if there's more downside coming first or the low is in right now? Tough call?

And China is putting in $174 Billion into the market to keep it from crashing this week from the virus. Call it QE or REPO or whatever, the point is they don't want the market collapsing upon it's open this morning.  We can see the futures up some, but that's to be expected after such a large drop on Friday.  However, this injection of money from not only China, but the FED here too in America, and the ECB, it's going to be hard to be a bear this week.

I'm not saying for certain that the market is going to keep going north and that the correction is over with as I just don't know.  But this week should be off to a bullish start and should continue until everyone turns bullish and gives up shorting the bounce.  We do now have a clean ABC pattern down, and there's nothing saying for sure that we must have another larger ABC down after a bounce to say a top double or something?  I'm just going to focus on today and this week and it looks bullish.  When next week comes around we'll see if another big drop is still in play or not.

I don't have anything else to add so I'll end it here.  Have a bless day and always remember that God always there when we need him.  We just have to ask for his guidance.  I don't think he'll tell you where the stock market is going next, but who knows... he might?  If he does please share with other.  🙂

Well the bulls held the double bottom area yesterday and rammed up hard in the close. I was certainly getting nervous that there would be a breakdown but that's how SkyNet works, it gets you thinking one thing really strongly just before it does the opposite. So the rally up squeezed out of bunch of bears, and lured in some bulls. And this morning we see the futures down some as SkyNet doesn't want the bulls to make money either I guess.

Overall though it's looking like the plan is still in play where the large B wave up is just subdividing into many smaller waves to frustrate both bulls and bears alike. I think we are in the tiny wave 2 down of small C up of large B up right now. That rally yesterday into the close looks like the tiny wave 1 up, but again, I'm not an Elliottwave expert. And I don't think it works very well in forecasting the future anymore. It did back in the day before computers I guess, but not now that the sheep have access to it. But it fits into my line of thinking that we have another slightly higher high coming soon and then a big drop in mid-February.

So I try to make it fit the best I can. And since I suspect this is going to drag out until a new ATH is hit I'm think there will be many subdivisions in the EW count for this large B up. We all know that C waves subdivide into 5 smaller waves, but the wave 3 can also divide... so lets not focus too much on the wave count but the time factor and the ATH coming, and then hopefully the wave count fits afterwards. Therefore once this tiny wave 2 down of small C up of large B up finishes I'd expect a tiny 3 up to start... probably Monday. If it subdivides as well then all it will do is push out the top until late in the week or even early the following week. I don't really think that will happen but anything is possible. My guess is that we top out late this coming week. Anyway, that's all I have for now. Have a blessed weekend.

The bulls are risking losing the large B wave up scenario here this morning. If the market drops below the prior low this Monday it would kill that wave count as a drop to 3200 or lower could happen. Right now I'm counting the ABC down from the high last Wednesday to the low this Monday as a large A, which means we are in the large B up currently. If it ended at the highs yesterday then we are in the large C down now.

My thoughts were that the large B up would subdivide into smaller waves and top out early next week with a double top but right now that's not looking very promising. However, it's still possible if the bulls don't lose this double bottom area from the the low on Monday. I see a "possible" FP on the QQQ this morning, which looks more like a late fill from the close yesterday. But it's still worth mentioning anyway.

So, if this main scenario holds of a large B up into early next week, which would currently have the small A up of large B up finished yesterday, and the small B down of large B up currently in play, then a small C up of large B up should start today... and probably subdivide into 5 smaller waves as well. This is still what I see happening, but if we drop in a large C to 3200 or lower then that's out the door of course and I'll then have to adjust from there.

For now we wait to see I guess as if my scenario plays out a small C up of large B up should start either today sometime or early tomorrow at the latest. Today is actually the best odds, as going sideways all day would make a bear flag and suggest a drop tomorrow to kill my wave count and head for 3200 or lower. That's all I have for today. Good luck to bears and bulls alike.

Futures are up some this morning as the ABC move down certainly looks finished at this point. So, if the entire move down was again, some large A with 3 small waves inside it, then we are in the large B up now. I suspect it will make a new all time high again before finishing. Timeline for this move is probably next Monday or Tuesday as you know the Fed's are going to hold the market up the rest of this week like they always do during FOMC meeting weeks. Today though we should complete the smaller A up part of this larger B up.

If we drift back down more then about 10 points in front of the meeting I'd say that small A up ended, but since I suspect they will close today out positive I'm leaning toward the small A up ending at the close today. Either way a small B down should follow no later then tomorrow. And if I were SkyNet I'd keep it small to make sure the bears can't get out of their trapped shorts... especially if we hit 3300 today as you know the bears will short it.

After that small B down finishes I'd look for the small C up to take us into the close next Monday for that new all time high, or into the open Tuesday. That should finish the large B up and have every bull long with bears back to sleep again thinking they missed the move. And that's when I think the big drop will start and take us into mid-February with a nasty 200-300 point drop. Of course this is all just a "best guess" on what I think might happen based on what I currently see. Will it play out like that? Who knows? If so I'm going to ride it down. May God watch out over all of us sinners and bless us even when we don't deserve it. Amen.

The futures took a nose dive Sunday night in what I'm thinking is a small C wave down (yeah, I know... it doesn't look small.  But that's the label I'm giving it) with the A down starting at the high last Wednesday, ending on Thursday where the small B up took us into the open on Friday. There's where the fun begun for the small C wave down. If it turns out to be a 5 wave move inside that C down then it should bottom soon and complete the first ABC move down.

The question is... is this ABC down some kind of wave 4 with a wave 5 up yet to come, which would make a higher high, or is it just a large A wave down with a large B up for a lower high? Either one suggests a move up into the FOMC meeting this Wednesday once this small C down finishes, which should be today. I know I've talked about the ritual number high of 3337.77 on the SPX from last Wednesday but there's no guarantee that it will be "the high", so don't panic if they pierce through it a little to run some stops before a larger drop starts (even-through it looks miles away right now).

We all know the Fed's don't like to be blamed for any drop in the market so I'd truly be shocked if they don't run the market back up into the meeting this week. However, there's an equal chance that they drop it to around 3200 and then run it back up into early February for that higher high but if so I'd think they would get too many bears short and the move up would last longer and go higher then just a pierce of the current high.

Doing a drop to that level would likely end up being some wave 4 down and a wave 5 up into the middle or late February would follow. This would screw up all the bears looking for a big drop in February as it wouldn't likely happen as hitting around 3200 is deep enough of a pullback to allow another month long rally to follow. Yeah, it would suck big time for everyone expecting a bigger drop.

Will it play out like that? I don't know? There's some big bets placed on the VIX right now for the February options but who's to say when they will exit them? A drop to 3200 on the SPX would make a lot of money for them and maybe that's all they were expecting? Bottom line here is that I'm going to remain open minded for that to happen, but I'm rooting for (and give higher odds for) a rally back up into the Fed meeting this Wednesday, with a triple top or even a pierce through higher to shake out some early bears possible before the move ends.

That may take all week but still something to look out for. Give me that and I'd still believe a much deeper drop in February is the plan. So if you want the big drop to say 3000 or so, then that's what needs to happen... a fast end to this small C wave down today and rally to mid-week.  But again... too deep here on this first drop and it would likely end and the bears would miss it again.  It's very frustrating for sure as I did not expect this big of a drop in front of the FOMC.

The futures are up close to the recent all time high but haven't went through it yet. Are the bears teasing the bulls for once by allowing them to get so close? Or are the bulls teasing the bears by holding back from busting higher? Unfortunately I don't know the answer. But the current high isn't that important to me right now but instead I'm just waiting to see what happens next week with earnings and the FOMC meeting. There certainly could be another spike higher to punish any early bears going short this week, but of course I'm hoping the current all time high holds as it's a nice ritual number to mark it with.

But for now I'm standing pat and waiting until next week as it should be the "key week" where the decision is made to tank it hard or squeeze it again. Not much else to say today as it's the last day of the week and I really don't expect too much action as traders are very likely waiting the FOMC to see what the Fed's say going forward. So have a great weekend and remember that God is real, make him your savior as if you don't the devil will be happy to take you. 🙂

The SPX put in a nice ritual high yesterday of 3337.77, which reminds me of the 777 train in the movie called "Unstoppable" (2010) with Denzel Washington and Chris Pine (before he became the young Captain Kirk on Star Trek). There's also the famous speech from Christine Lagarde where she talks about numerology and the number 7. Of course none of this means anything if the SPX makes another new all time in the coming days, but for now it might hold. I'm thinking we are going to pullback small, like maybe to just under 3300 a little to make an A wave down of some degree. Then sideways to back up some into late next week for the B wave up.

Why you ask? Because of earnings coming out, which I think will hold the market in place until it's over with. Next Tuesday we have Apple reporting earnings, and Telsa and Facebook on Wednesday, along with the FOMC meeting at 2pm EST that day, and then Amazon on Thursday. So while we might have put in a top yesterday I don't think the expected big drop (the C wave) will start until after those earnings (and Fed meeting) has pasted.

Remember that the insiders will want to unload their garbage stocks at the high to YOU the sheep, so expect good numbers on their reports to pop them higher where they dump into the bigger volume. Now the big question will be... if viewed good will they be enough to create another new all time high in the SPX/DOW? The answer is... I don't know?

I'd love for the high to hold simply for its ritual value. But if it doesn't then a blow off top rally to maybe close to, or piercing through the 3400 is certainly in the cards. I don't think it will matter either way but I'd prefer a lower high to keep a nice ABC pattern in proper formation (and the ritual number high intact too). Of course we could just start dropping tomorrow and continue to accelerate lower and lower, but that just doesn't make sense from an "insider point of view".

You have to think like a criminal here, and if you owned those big stocks mentioned, and you've been long them since say... October of last year, wouldn't you want to use the fake earnings reports (which create volume... buying or selling) to unload them? Pump the crap out of them to the fake news media outlets and sell during earnings... that's what I'd do if I were a criminal bankster like Lloyd Blankfein or Jamie Dimon (and all the others that hid in the dark).

Anyway, ritual number or not, this possible scenario is what I'd do if I were them. I pray that I'm able to catch it, up or down. May God help all us sheep to take back some money from the wolves that stole it from first.

P.S. Apple had a nice ritual high of 319.99 today and Facebook at 222.75... so "clues" are out there for all to see.

Don't think the market is rigged?  Watch this...

Looks like yesterday didn't happen when see the futures back up this morning. More grind as the market plans its next big move. Will it be up to squeeze the bears even more, or down to trap the bulls? I hate to say it but as long as the bears keep calling for tops it's going to be hard to get one. Everyone seems to be comparing this current rally up to the January 2018 rally and they expect a repeat. It never happens like that when all the sheep see the same pattern. Will it drop hard and spank the bulls? Sure... eventually.

But it might need higher prices first before that happens, as bears need to stop shorting and throw in the towel on a big drop soon. We that happens and we hear talk of much higher numbers and failed comparisons to 2018 then we can start looking for a top. I just don't see it right now. More time is needed, like maybe until the end of this month or early February... don't know? For now though I remain neutral as I can't be a bear here with so many other bears... nor can I be a bull up at these heights. Maybe we are 99% done with the move up, or maybe only 98%... or 95%?

Doesn't matter as you don't want to short until it's a 100% done and you get a clean sell signal. Right now we don't have that, but we don't have any buy signals either. That was long ago and we are still in it I guess? At least until we top. The grind higher is very frustrating for sure but you can't fight the Fed and they are still pumping billions of dollars into this fat pig. It might be be causing some super strong rally but it's certainly stopping any big drop from happening... for now at least. Anyway, nothing on the horizon for today or the next few days as far as sell signals go. The market closed red yesterday to reset the multi-day in a row series of green closes. For now, I'm just waiting on something... what I don't know? May God give us all more patience.

After a nice long weekend, which I used to make improvements to the website, we are back to the grind stone once again. Looks like the futures are down a little this morning, but nothing big. This week is a critical one to "possibly" setup a sell signal that could be big enough to drop the market hard into mid-February... which is the time period the bears will have the best chance at I believe.

Most corrections (not just a couple of days pulling back) last about 18-21 days from what I've counted in the past. So, in order to bottom around the middle of February (the 2nd Friday commonly puts in the low as the 3rd Friday is the monthly expiration week and usually will rally to make put holders expire worthless) we'd need to start the move down by early next week or very late this week.

It doesn't have to play out like this, but it's the bears best time period to do so, with the highest statistical odds rooting for them. There also some political things on the scene and something about the REPO and the 15th of February.

All signs of concern for the market going into the middle of next month. For today I'd like to see a green close across the board on the indexes but a small one to show the bulls are tired. Do that for several days in a row to make a bull flag pattern and put the bears to sleep and you'll have the makings of a top forming. Yeah, there's danger that the bull flag could play out, but also good odds it will fail and just rollover hard... which is what I'm thinking will happen.

Just wishing for now but all could come true by the end of this week or early next week. I don't have much to say about today other then I'd like for it to chop around all day and "squeak" out a small green close. It's kinda like the game blackjack, where you know the odds increase over time as the chip continues to land on the same color, whether its red or black isn't the point.

But say if it does it 5 times, 6 times, 7 times, or more.... on say "black" (for green in the market), the odds increase that the next time will fall on "red" to break the streak. We've had a lot of green closes in the past month or so on the DOW and SPX as the market just grinds up everyday without mercy. Give me several more, but make them weak and odds will shift in favor of a nice drop happening in February. Have a wonderful and blessed day.

The grind continues this Friday morning. The bulls just don't seem to ever want to rest. But a holiday is near (next Monday the markets are closed for MLK day), and "turns" in the market are common around them. So I would not be surprised if we top out today or next Tuesday and then start down some. In the beginning pullbacks should be small as "buy the dippers" keep jumping in, but that just sets up a nice series of wave 1's (or A) down and wave 2's (or B) up.

And we all know that while Elliottwave can't really predict the market in the future very accurately alone, it does aid when combined with other methods. If it plays out like I think it might then a larger drop should start by the end of next week or early the week afterwards. It should last into mid-February and should scare the crap out of the bulls. With all the past months of grind upward to squeeze the last bear out this coming correction should make all those bulls puke. It's getting really close now to bull slaughtering time. Another week I think, but a blow off top needs to be put in first. Today or next Tuesday seems like the most likely days to do it. Have a wonderful holiday weekend and remember that Jesus loves even us stock market junkies. 🙂

P.S.  For you that remember Reinhardt's blog there's a Legatus meeting next week as well.  I smell a big drop coming soon.

2020 Legatus Summit East

Well, I hate to repeat myself so many times, but the market is up again this morning... not huge, but up never the less. The 3300 level on the SPX will be taken out on the SPX at open it appears as the ES Futures are already above it. Next week still has the highest odds for a top and big drop to happen. The market is closed on Monday for Martin Luther King day, so it will be a shortened week.

How many times in the past has the market made important turns around a holiday? A lot is the simple answer. Until then there's not much to do as today (and probably tomorrow as well) appears to be another slow grind higher, and without fast swings up and down it's hard for option players to trade this. It could be done if you already entered yourself in net long position some time ago, but that's not the case for me (unfortunately).

I'm still on the sidelines waiting for the south bounded train to arrival, and next week is the expected schedule date, with Tuesday being the most likely one. Hopefully it shows up safely and on time as the northbound train is close to running out of track I hear... LOL. Have a wonderful day and don't let stress affect your life. God put us here to love and nothing else matters. 🙂

A small move down this morning, but nothing big. It's still looking like next week will be the key for the bears. Today, tomorrow and Friday really needs to carve out some small waves down and up (in Elliottwave) to setup a C wave down next week. If we pullback into this Friday (again... small, like maybe down to 3250's?) then I'd look for next Tuesday (market closed on Monday for MLK day) to be up. Basically some kind of A wave down into Friday and B up on Tuesday, then hopefully the bears will get a nice C wave drop afterwards.

The other scenario would be a move down today and tomorrow for the A wave and back up on Friday for the B wave, which should put in a double top to fool the bears over the weekend so they don't short it. Then the C down could start on Tuesday. I give that one the lower odds. I suspect we'll pullback into this Friday over uncertainty in the political scene. That's about all I have for now. It's just a waiting game right now. May God bless you and keep you away from SkyNet's tricks.

The futures are flat this morning, so it's hard to get a good read on the market. I'd really like to see some quick moves up and down (that are small) to give us some kind of hint that a top is forming. There's still the magical even number level of 3000 on the SPX that the bulls want to hit, so even though they hit the 29,000 level on the DOW they might want the SPX one too? They are really close now and going sideways for several days would form a nice bull flag for them to breakthrough it later in the week.

Of course that could also be a trick to scare away the bears seeing the same pattern and lure in the bulls right before it fails to break high and instead rolls over and drops hard. Again, nothing here suggesting a hard drop today, but that could change in the coming days. With all the earnings coming out these next few weeks I have to think the bulls will succeed and bust on through to 3300+ before they allow a correction to start.

The January VIX contract basically expires today at the close because you can't trade it overnight and in the premarket tomorrow when it officially expires at 8am EST Wednesday morning. Once the February contract starts the VIX is open for a spike high at anytime over the next couple of weeks. It doesn't have to start tomorrow, as they might wait until after the monthly options expire on the indexes this Friday, meaning next week is really the week to look out for a surprise drop to start. Nothing else to add here so have a blessed day and trade safely (if there is such a thing... LOL).

The futures are up this morning, which doesn't surprise me. I wasn't expect much to happen until at least after the January VIX contract expires this coming Wednesday morning and possibly the Index monthly options on Friday. I don't know if another new all time high will be made or not, or if the SPX reaches the all magical 3300 level, but that's not as important really as the "time cycle" is... which again points to later this week or early next week as the most likely period for a pullback in the market to start.

I don't see anything big starting today or tomorrow as the current VIX contract must first expire so the February one can start. Then at some point in the next week or so the market makers will let the SPX/DOW drop to spike the VIX up again so they can repeat the process of selling naked calls on it.

It doesn't happen every month as some are more bullish then others. But I'd say it happen two thirds to three quarters of the time for each 12 months of every year. The months that are more common for weakness are of course the higher odds ones. That would be February of course, sometimes March.

May has seen some nice drops in the market too, but April, June and July seem up more years then down. August and September has seen nasty drops as well as October. Normally November and December are quiet months but not in 2018. There's no way to be 100% sure on which months we'll see late pullbacks but it's safe to say that when the market is overbought and in a month where it's common to happen you have to be on the lookout for such a drop.

Remember that the market makers need volatility to make money, and markets that go straight up do not help them (just folks with 401k plans basically). So again, I do expect much action early this week but a sell signal could start setting up late in the week. I'd like to see some decent swings up and down (basically to make an A wave down and B up of some degree) to get the signal started. Hopefully I'll be able to see it before it happens. Have a blessed day.

The futures are up a little this morning, which is expected with the DOW so close to 29,000 that you know they will want to hit it. I doubt if much esle happens today. It's probably going to be a boring one. Monday though could pullback some, but I don't see anything big on the downside starting until after next Wednesday as the earliest. They (the market makers) will keep the market from dropping hard until after the monthly expiration, and that's Wednesday morning for the VIX and Friday for the SPX.

I do think a big drop is coming, which might look similar to the late January to early February 2018 move down. But, I think it will just be a large 4 wave down of some degree and then we start a strong rally back up into the spring/summer for another new all time. We are clearly in a blow off top mode with the Feds pumping as much money as needed to keep this pig going up. So I'll be on the lookout for DOW 30,000 or more as this thing isn't going to die anytime soon. Have a great weekend.

Nothing exciting about the market this morning as it up again as usually. That ABC down we had over the last week or so still looks like a wave 4 of some smaller degree. Odds are we are in the wave 5 up now, and it's looking like it wants to hit 3300 at least. It's just a waiting game right now. I still think "they" will hold the market up into the monthly options expiration of the VIX next week (Tuesday is the last trading day), and maybe even the Index expiration on Friday? Bottom line is that I expect a high at some point next week to end this smaller wave 5 up, and probably end some larger degree wave 3 up?

Some think we are in a larger degree wave 5 up and when it ends a major correction will start, but I suspect it's just a larger 3 wave and the correction down won't be huge (like 300-400 SPX points), but will still be a very nice drop. I'm thinking in the 150 point range, and I think it will be just a larger wave 4 down with a larger 5 up to follow right afterwards. Another huge rally up into spring/summer will just destroy the bears, especially if it blasts through 3300 and maybe hits 3400? Don't know how high it will go but it should be high enough to get everyone bullish. This is all just speculation right now.

My main focus is just to catch the coming drop, regardless of what wave count it turns out to be. I'm still on the sidelines and will remain so until next Tuesday to let the VIX expire. And I want to see that 3300 hit as well. When that happens I'll start looking for a short. Have a blessed day. God loves all us sinners. Thank him for that...

Well the bulls did indeed rally the market back up yesterday and came close to hitting the FP on the SPY from last Friday. This morning the market is about flat though with no clear direction. As far as wave counts it's really hard to say for sure? We do look like we completed an ABC down of some degree, but was that all for the wave 4 or will it subdivide into a series of ABC moves? I just don't know. If it subdivides then the ABC down we just finished was part of a bigger A down. Then a bigger B up should be in play now and last into options expiration most likely.

Then the bigger C down happens, and that completes the wave 4 down leaving 5 up into April/May for a huge blow off top. If not, then the 4 down right now completed and the 5 up in play should take us into the mid-3300 range in the coming few weeks. Both counts suggest there's not much downside for the next couple of weeks, with one pointing to a strong rally and the other just chop with a slightly higher high. Without knowing which one is correct I don't have any high odds trade I'll willing to play. That's all I have for today. Good luck as always.