Looks like we are doing the retest of the low from last week. I spoke about it being a possible ABC down for a wave 4 down of some degree and I still think that's the likely case. But, it might subdivide into a series of ABC downs, so when this C down ends it might only be the first A down. Then choppy B up into the monthly options expiration week should be next.

In elliottwave, which again I don't think can be very accurate in forecasting the market all by itself, B waves can go higher then the top of the A down. Meaning that we might see a slightly higher high to lure in the bulls and fake out the bears on the B up, which again I suspect will end the week of the monthly options expiration.

It's just a common practice for the market makers to spike the VIX up early in the start of its monthly contract, sell naked calls on it, and then drive it back down into expiration to make those calls expire worthless. The January contract for the VIX expires at 8am EST on the 15th, while the index options expire on Friday the 17th. So around that area is where I'd top out the market before a nice big drop down (for the C wave).

Between now and then it's looking like some choppy moves to frustrate both sides. This current move down looks very controlled so I'm not so sure on it breaking 3200 and reaching 3150 or so like I previously said. There's a "possible" FP on the SPY from last Friday of 324.81 at 4:12 pm, which of course could just be a late fill as it's very close to the close on Thursday.

Real or fake it's funny how the market makes its way back there at some future date, time after time. So don't get married to the downside here as I don't think we are quite really yet for that big drop to start. Have a bless day and may God watch out for all of us.

Well, yesterday did indeed have an early morning pullback after failing to get through the last Friday high and only making a double top, but what wave count it was is unknown? It didn't take out the low of the Mon/Tues drop so it wasn't the C wave down still inside a wave 4 down, so that wave count is wrong. It appeared more like the wave 5 up was subdividing and the early pull back yesterday was a small wave 2 down with the opening double top hit the small wave 1 up. That count looked great later in the day as the strong rally up started and continued into the close where it make a new all time high.

Yippee! It's a small wave 3 up inside a 5 up the bulls are thinking. So they probably (not me, I sat in cash) held over night looking for it to continue today as it still should have had a small wave 4 down and 5 up left before the bigger 5 up ended... right? Wrong! Bull trap... ha ha ha! Finally it's they get some of their own medicine as the futures tanked afterhours with over a 40 point down move.

They took out the Mon/Tue low where a small A down inside a wave 4 down could have ended. It would suggest that this drop was the small C down of that 4 down as it made a lower low then the A did. But the small B up went to a new all time high of 3263, which is much higher then the start of the A down at 3254 (ES Futures), so how can that be a B wave? I know, you Elliottwave guys are going to say that the B up can be higher then the top and starting point of the A down.

Well great... so how does that help one pick a spot to short at? Most bears shorted at the early double top, but got squeezed out on the rally up into the close. Then the bulls get taken out last night as all their stops were likely hit. Now the futures are bouncing up some from the early morning low. I guess SkyNet ran all the stops on the bulls and now back to the usually bullish mode? Who knows? I can just say that very few likely caught this move, which is why I don't do much forecasting with Elloittwave.

Even technical analysis only work part of the time. I prefer to just say I don't know when nothing looks clear or has high odds... which was the case yesterday. For today it still looks nasty for the open, and while a quick bounce is likely shortly there afterwards the odds suggest there will be a retest of the over night low by the close today, or Monday morning. But odds get weaker as more time passes.

Call this an ABC wave 4 down if you want, which suggest that next week we'll start a wave 5 up. When it ends is anyone's guess? I'd say they woke up the bears now so my thinking is that those bears will be used as fuel to squeeze to get the market higher again as no one else is buying at these levels. How high will this squeeze up next week go, and is it the final wave 5 before large correction? I think it is, and for the upside target my guess would be we'll either fall short of the magical even number level of 3300 by 10-20 points or pierce though it by the same. I don't think we'll stop right at it because it's too obvious.

Time is a factor here as well as the Marker Makers will either do this fast to get it over with or drag it out into the 3rd Wednesday of January to let the monthly VIX contract expire first, then tank it late in January. That was what happened in 2018, so that's not likely to be repeated exactly as they rarely let us sheep figure it out. If I was them I'd call it a top yesterday for large wave 3 up from many months ago in 2019, and start the wave 4 down now. I'm sure you can count the waves in a manor to where you can label it like that.

Then I'd drop some next week for the A wave down of that wave 4, which they (the Market Makers) should make a much larger wave down in total to really get enough bears onboard to squeeze much higher into spring/summer. I mean crazy levels like even 3500 or more? What would it take to get that started? I'd say a nice 200+ SPX/ES point drop or so... like down to just above the 3000 level. That would wake up the bears. So, if I was a MM I'd drop some next week to get started, like just the A part of the 4 down.

Maybe I'd go through 3200 a little to wake up the bears nicely. Then I'd end it and start the B up and squeeze those bears. Make them give up and starting thinking the wave 5 up has started. All that is needed is a rally back up so strong for that B wave that it gets really close again to the all time high made yesterday. Don't make a double top as then some bears will jump in short just on that common practice of shorting all double tops. Make it close but fall shy enough to stop bears from short it.

This should be down into the 3rd week of January for the monthly options expiration for the VIX and the SPX/SPY. If done right the bears will give and the bulls will be fully loaded thinking the wave 5 up is about to take them to another new all time high... and beyond. But that's where the MM's should pull the wool over the bulls eyes and drop it again for the C wave down of the wave 4, which should get close to 3000 if it's a true C down... and that will wake up enough bears to squeeze for several months and blast up to crazy levels for that wave 5 up. All just speculation of course, but it's what I'd do if I were a market maker. Have a great weekend. May God bless us all in 2020.

The market is ripping higher this morning to start off 2020 with a bang... at least for the bulls. It's not quite taken out the prior high a week ago on the ES Futures but it's very close to doing so. I don't have any clue where the market is going this week but I can tell what others think. The Elliottwave folks see the move down on Monday/Tuesday as a wave 4 of some degree, which puts us in a wave 5 up currently. If it fails to bust through and make another higher high then we could still be in the wave 4 down and that it divided into an ABC pattern instead of just that one wave down on Monday.

Basically that move down would just be the A leg of the wave 4 and we are in the B leg up of it. That leaves C down to complete wave 4 still to come, like maybe tomorrow or even on Monday? The alternative count would be that wave 4 did complete as just a one wave move down and that we are in a 5 up now, which would be a failed 5th wave or "truncated" one if it fails to take out the current all time high and continue higher.

Another possible count would be that this rally up is just wave 1 inside that 5th wave and that a tiny wave 2 down should happen next, like on Friday. But that 2 down should make a higher low then the low of the Mon/Tues wave 4 down. Then a wave 3 up of that 5th wave would start on Monday I guess. All three scenario's suggest a move down is likely next on a failure to get through to a new high.

They only vary based on which count we are in? Not much help really, which is why I don't use EW as a prediction tool as it has too many alternative wave counts. But it can still be helpful when combined with other tools. Like technical analysis, which right now isn't very clear as far as I can tell.

Some time frames are bullish and others bearish. Just not much help there at all. The bullish side shows the market riding up nicely above the moving averages with no signs of rolling over yet. The MACD's (daily chart) show a "possible" bearish cross but it's not here yet. The Histogram bars are lower then previously but not below the zero line yet... so neutral to bullish.

The Full Stochastic has rolled over from being up in the 70's and now is below the 50 level and pointing down. But it could hook back up at the open with the futures being up nicely and the chart I'm looking at is the cash only. Bottom line here is that I don't see any clear direction, but all EW counts suggest this rally up will pullback some in the next day or two. Welcome to 2020.

Nice surprise drop yesterday that I wasn't expecting.  However, I doubt if it repeat again. Today looks to be a mostly flat day with a possible early retest of the low from yesterday and then up a little the rest of the day. But I'm not expecting much. It New Years Eve so I suspect most traders will be not be around today. In fact I'm going to do the same and just end this update here. Have a Happy New Year and may God Bless you in 2020 and beyond.

Nothing much to say for today or tomorrow as it's looking likely that both days will just chop around with light volume and go basically nowhere. Nothing big on the upside or downside seems like the plan here to end the year. Next year though should be a wild one as I fully expect some big swings up and down prior to the 2020 presidential election. It should start with a top in January that causes a nice drop into a February low.

From there a nice rally up into the spring before another drop into the summer for another low. I could be wrong but I suspect the summer drop will be early, like in May/June instead of the usual July/August top and drop into a September low. I say this based on the election being in November as I think they will get the move down out of the way as soon as possible to make sure the market is going up into the elections. All just a guess at this point but that's what I'd do if I could as then it would give Trump the highest odds of getting re-elected. Anyway, nothing else here to add so I'll end it here and wish you all a blessed day.

I hope everyone had a great Christmas. This morning we see the futures up a little but nothing huge. I'm still expecting a pullback to start today or tomorrow, which I know is the contrarian view with light volume expected due to the holidays. Regardless, I simply post what I see and think... right or wrong. I'll keep this update short and end it here. Have a great day.

I'll keep this update short as this is a holiday week, but don't fall asleep as I'm expecting a pullback to start right after Christmas. A typical trick by SkyNet is to drop it around holidays when the bears aren't watching, and I think it's going to happen this time around as well. There's a FP on the SPY from after the close on Friday. It's showing a high of 322.35, which from the looks of this mornings rally it could be hit today or tomorrow. The typical trick is to put out some upside or downside FP and go the opposite direction first and come back later to hit the FP, that's not looking like the plan for this one. The QQQ also has a FP on it of 212.50, which again might get hit today or tomorrow.

Speaking of tomorrow, don't forget that the market will close early at 1pm EST as it's Christmas Eve. Ok, not much to add for today but I'll be watching closely for that FP to get hit. Today or tomorrow does look to be the likely time period but don't get lured into thinking it has too hit in the next day or so as again, most of the time the market starts off the opposite direction of the FP and comes back to it later.

It's the trick SkyNet loves to tease us with as it knows how obvious the FP is... especially for those looking for them. My plan is to wait until tomorrow at the close to look for a short. I might even wait for Thursday, not sure? I'd like to see the FP put in the high of course but we all know that they are just targets to be hit and not always "turning points".

We saw that recently with the hit of the FP on IWM, which was 164.34 and the day it hit (and pierced through) the final high that day was 165.10, and it did pullback small that day but went back up the next day to retest that high by putting in a slightly lower one, and then pulled back a second time. But that was about all as after that it went sideways to up into the current higher high of 166.41 last Friday. Did the FP work? Sure, as if you were long you knew when to get out and go to cash. But it didn't produce an immediate turn back down, so for the bears wanting to short it they weren't happy.

This current new FP on the SPY could get hit and pieced (that's common) and the market linger up here for a few days. So don't base a decision to short solely on the hit of the FP. In fact I'm basing my choice to look for a short soon based on many other factors that I won't go into this morning. Have a great Monday and may God Bless you and your family.

A nice move up yesterday to put another new all time high. We are getting close now to top zone on the DOW that Oscar Carboni had as a year end target, which was 28,500-29,000. The SPY paid dividends today and it's dropped about a buck to reflect that payout, but the rest of the market is flat for the most part. I really don't have much of an opinion right now as the market still seems to be sleeping with no clear direction. It's a grind higher slowly until those upside targets are reached I guess.

It might continue into the end of the year, just not sure? But we all know a surprise move down is right around the corner... catching it in advance is always the tough part though. Today is a Friday and I don't see high odds for the bulls or bears today, but of course would lean more with the bulls due to the extremely light volume and holiday time of the year. Nothing else to add so I'll end it here. Get yourself some coffee to stay warm and to stay awake as it's probably going to be another boring day. Have a great weekend and may God bless you during this holiday season.

Yesterday the company I used for hosting the free chatroom went down and stayed down all day long... including their website. They are Flyzoo.co and that forced for look for another alternate, which I quickly found a company called Minnit.chat and installed it. But it has very limited features, which I guess is why it's free. I keep researching and looking for one comparable in features to my original one.

I finally found one called Wise Chat Pro, which I got installed and working now. It will be replacing the others as it better then Minnit.chat and comparable in features as Flyzoo.co... plus it's free for me as it will run on my hosting companies servers versus paying $9.90 per month for Flyzoo.co to host the chatroom on their servers. Everyone start playing around with it as it's the new chatroom.

Ok, for the market we still see a mostly flat open with the futures down just a few points. I can only guess the market is in wait mode until this impeachment crap is over with... at least in congress, as it will never get passed in the senate. I am looking for a drop to start soon but that doesn't mean the bulls won't try to spike it up higher one more time first to squeeze out any bears shorting right now.

There was a large block of VIX calls bought Tuesday and Wednesday for the January 20th, 2020 expiration, at the 22 strike price. Someone said in the room it was the famous "50 cent" trader that seems to appear and go short big time before a large drop happens. I guess we'll know soon as January isn't that far away. For today I don't have a clue. More chop I guess? Bore traders to sleep (at least the bears)? I'm rooting for one more pop higher as this sideways crap is a bull flag pattern and I'd like to see it play out before risky a short on it.

The DOW is really close to Oscar Carboni's target zone of 28,500-29,000, and the SPX needs to get up into the 3200's I think. Let's all give the bull a nice kick the butt to get it moving so us bears can feast. There's a short near, I can smell it. Just got to be more patient. Dear Lord Jesus, please help me to catch the top and short this fat pig. Please give me patience, wisdom, courage, strength and knowledge to dodge satan during this time of year. And let's all start celebrating your birthday the rest of December. Thank you Jesus. Yours always, Red. 🙂

It's starting off as another flat day it seems but that could all change of course by the open. I don't have much to add today that hasn't already been covered. We are up at strong overhead resistance areas on the SPX and DOW, as well as NYA, which is at a double top level from January of 2018. A pullback is near but if the bulls decide not to do it today and go up a little higher the pullback to follow could be a much larger one then just 50 SPX points.

In fact it could last for several months and mark a very important all time high going into 2020, which I have been thinking could see as high as 3300 in early January or February. But a small pullback is needed soon to reach that level I believe. I'm basically looking for a small wave 4 down and then a long wave 5 up to end it with that upside target as my goal. Continuing to grind higher over the next few days might kill that line of thinking that we are in some kind of wave 3 up now and a 4 down and 5 up is still needed.

Meaning that it could be that we are in the wave 5 now and there's no wave 4 down and 5 up coming. Or that that it's still a wave 3 up and the extension higher will force a small wave 4 down with an even tinier wave 5 up (likely one that truncates short of the high of the wave 3). Both counts would suggests the coming high would be "the high", regardless of it's wave count. Elliottwave counting is again... "a best guess", as I've just never seen it to be highly accurate on any short term counts.

Long term it seems to have a higher accuracy but short term is just about as good as flipping a coin in my opinion. Bottom line here is that the bulls can either go a little higher over the next few days or pullback first (starting today or tomorrow and bottoming Friday or Monday) and then go a lot higher (like to even 29,000-30,000 on the DOW) into January of 2020.

The pulling back first would probably be what Elliottwavers would call "waves subdividing"... which again is why it's hard to accurately predict with it. One must use many different methods and all them all together I believe. The FP on IWM has been fulfilled and it was put out in July of this year if I recall, so it's likely the high for the year. The VIX is very low right now and close to the low for the year, so while it could go down a little more it suggests the upside in the market is limited without some pullback first to spike the VIX up some first. All these clues tell me a drop is very near but will it start today, tomorrow, Friday or Monday is unknown. Have a blessed day.

Nice squeeze by the bulls yesterday but did you notice IWM still hasn't made a new high since the day it hit the 164.34 FP (and pierce it of course with a 165.10 all time high)? Clearly that is the likely high for the year, which is almost over but I still wanted to point that out. That FP was put out in July if I recall, so it was clearly a signal for the yearly high. With that piece of knowledge it tells me we are probably topped out on the rest of the market as well.

Today is the last trading day for the December VIX contract, and it's a common practice to market makers to crush it into expiration (officially that's at 9am EST Wednesday), so a little more on the upside today seems likely, or sideways. But tomorrow the new contract starts so from there going forward we could see them spike it up so they can sell naked calls on it and collect the premium as they know full well they will drive the market back up into the January expiration, and therefore the VIX back down again.

Needless to say I'll be looking for a move down to start tomorrow or Thursday. In the past these moves are about 80-100 SPX points and last 2 days, so if history repeats the bottom should be in by this Friday. Next week is Christmas week of course so I'd expect the market to float back up but NOT take out the current high as that won't likely come until next year some time with early January the most likely time period. That's all I see right now. Have a great day.

The futures are this morning in what might be the start of the Christmas rally? Usually it's a little closer to end of the month but maybe it's starting early this go around? I'm still looking one more pullback right after this Tuesday but I'm not looking for anything big. Maybe a 30-50 point move down I guess, and then the real Christmas rally should start. I'm not positive yet on this pullback but will get a better feel by the close tomorrow.

That's what I see for this week, and it's got medium odds of playing out. Not much else to add here as we grind higher with 3200 as the target. Considering how close we got to it last week my guess is that they will hit it this week, and that should put the bears to sleep of course, which is commonly when they do surprise pullbacks. That's all for now. Have a great day.

So much for my thoughts of going sideways for several days as the market finally broke out to the upside yesterday, which also hit the FP on IWM and fulfilled it now. That was the move I was looking for on Wednesday around the FOMC but it got delayed until yesterday I see. Last night the futures were up more but have come back a little this morning.

The DOW is the biggest lager here I think as IWM hit its FP, NYA hit a new all time, and the SPX is close to 3200, so my attention will be on the DOW as I think it needs to get up closer to 28,500... which "might" put in a nice top that is followed by an even nicer move down. Today though seems pretty over extended in momentum so I tend to think it will hold the positive open expected and close green today but I'm not expecting a move up to that DOW target by the close.

Maybe on Monday or Tuesday, who knows? Or maybe a small pullback or pause day and then up later next week, but before any real pullback worth playing happens I think that upside target must be hit. Call it mid 28,400's up to mid 28,600's on the DOW and low 3200's on the SPX. IWM though might have already topped since it hit the FP on it, but that's never a sign of an immediate turn, only an target that will be hit at some point in the future.

Now that it's hit it can go sideways for days if it wants to build a bull flag and then make another move higher, or simply rollover. There's no rules with FP's that say once hit it will make a turn the opposite direction. But, my gut tells me this FP was very likely the high for the year as it was put out many months ago and usually the longer it takes for a FP to get hit the more powerful and important it is.

Couple that with how overbought the market is on the upside, and how close the other indexes are to hitting important upside levels, and all that together tells me that IWM isn't likely going much higher, but might tread water until the others hit their targets. Hopefully the bears will get a short setup next week, but I don't see anything right now. Just bulls grinding higher after whipping the bears silly yesterday. Have a great day and may God bless you this holiday season.

The FOMC was a total snooze-fest yesterday as the market yawned and barely moved at all. This morning looks about the same with the futures basically flat again. I don't have much to say as when the market is going sideways it's gearing up for the next big move. With Christmas around the corner now I'm sure a few more days of sideways chop will look very bullish on the charts. After all, isn't the Santa rally supposed to start sometime in the second half of December?

So if this does happen I suspect the bears will be put to sleep and the bulls will be piling on long from the bull flag it should make as well as the expected time of the year rally. And if everyone is expecting a move up into the end of the year I'm going to expect the opposite... a flush out C wave down with the A down the 2 day move on the 2nd and 3rd of this month. More time is needed I think, but by early to the middle of next week I'll be looking for a short (again, if this chop-fest continues). For today, I got nothing and I expect nothing. Have a great one.

The futures are up some this morning, which is looks like chop the day before any FOMC meeting. I don't think there will be too much downside as this smells of a bear squeeze tomorrow as the Fed try to look like a hero again. My best guess that the market is consolidating today and tomorrow we go up again and make another new all time high. Remember that the FP on IWM has not yet been hit, and the NYA is really trying hard to take out its prior all time high from January of 2018. Therefore I don't think the bulls are done yet. I'll keep this post short but I'll be looking for a long into the FOMC as a rally up is very likely in my opinion. Have a great day.

The futures are down a hair this Monday morning but not really worth noting. The big event this week is the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday where traders will probably be looking for some kind of clues from the FED about the economy. Considering how this move up from last Tuesday still looks like some kind of B wave to me I tend to think it will be a "sell the news" meeting.

I haven't done a fact check study but just in the last 10 years I'd answer with 80% if someone ask me how many times does the FOMC meeting result in a positive close on the market versus negative. So if the market doesn't sell off in front of the meeting then I'm thinking this time around will fall into the 20% stat. There's still that FP on IWM lingering that about a point higher then the high on Friday, but the last time it got close it rolled over without hitting it.

It might do the same again to tease and trick everyone that see's the FP like I do. It will be hit at some point but "when" is something I can't answer. For now I'll just be looking to catch the pullback this week that retests the low of last week. I'm not sure yet if we make a lower low or higher low as if all the bears see it, and label it a C wave down (and I'm sure they do), then SkyNet isn't likely to let them profit from it. Meaning it would make a higher low so bears stay short and get squeezed on the way back up, as we know most bears will look to exit at the double bottom or pierce of it. Anyway, that's all I have for today. Have a great one and God Bless.