The "possible" FP of 298.38 from afterhours on Tuesday is now hit this premarket morning and will likely be hit shortly after the open as well. It doesn't mean we will turn back down but it is a target that has now been hit. From a wave counting view I can make out 5 waves down from the recent highs last week, so we could be in another 5 wave move up... which, if so, the wave 1 up started at the low yesterday and should peak at this FP level. Then a move down today for a wave 2 followed by the 3,4, and 5 up into the end of the month on Monday for a nice "window dressing" for this 3rd quarter of the year.

Mutual Fund companies use some kind of law that says they have to report at least 3 trading days of any given month (or quarter I believe?) of what they have been investing their clients money into. So when you get a quarterly or yearly report from some retirement investing company it will list the stocks and other stuff they put your money into for your 401k plan.

However, they only have to report 3 days of any period and that's all they usually report. They don't like to tell their clients all the high risk derivatives, options, start up companies, or whatever else is out there that isn't what you'd call a safe investment. It's more common to just list the big boys companies that they know every client is aware of and feels safe with. That's of course the top 30 stocks in the DOW, as well as the top stocks in the SPX and Nasdaq.

Anyway, this is where the term "window dressing" came from as these big firm clear out the high risk stuff and buy up the dinosaur stocks, with is all for "show" to make their clients happy. So if we get a pullback today and stay higher then yesterdays low I'd tend to think we will rally up nicely on Friday and Monday to finish this quarter off on a positive note. After Monday though a new quarter starts and high risk trading will be back on the minds of mutual fund companies.

If a new all time high can be made before this quarter ends then maybe a squeeze on the bears can take it up much higher into the next quarter, or at least most of October. But if a new all time high isn't made I'd be on the look out for a big drop, which might just turn out to be that large C wave down I've been mentioning (and everyone else too). We'll see. Have a great day.

Yesterdays drop was a surprise but in this news driven market it seems that surprise drops happen a lot. The Trump impeachment news will take the blame I guess for the move down yesterday. But in reality we all know the market is very overbought and just staying up in this zone due to the funny money the Feds are pumping into it every day until at least October 10th. Technically we are still trading in a range so nothing there has changed... just wider then then I mentioned yesterday.

As for today I'm just going to wait and watch as I don't have any clear picture. But some clues should appear over the next few days to tell me if the market is setting up for a big drop or a strong rally. Yeah, it's hard to believe we could be setting up for a rally but sideways trading for awhile is also called "consolidation", and it could be filled with "buying" (by insiders) which means another strong leg up is coming, or "selling" (same insiders), which of course means a drop is coming. I don't know the answer yet... unfortunately.

Odds would favor a sell of course but we all know how tricky SkyNet is, so a buy is certainly possible. I'm just going to remain neutral here until I can figure out what SkyNet is setting up for... and that's not an easy task. Meaning I could "not see it" and miss the drop or rally. But I think I'll catch it this time. I think it will show its true colors (the next direction) by this Friday.

I think down as I still feel like that possible large ABC wave pattern needs to complete and we've only had the large A down from the July top to the August low, and have been in the large B up ever since. A large C down is needed I think and then a year end rally to new all time highs. Yeah, I could be wrong and the "so called" large A down is just a wave 4 and we are in a wave 5 up now... which could be correct? I can't rule out anything right now but should know more by this Friday. Until then I'm neutral. Have a blessed day.

The futures are set to open over the 3000 level on the ES (and over 27,000 on the YM, aka... the DOW). I had bought a small long yesterday morning and closed it out shortly after 4pm because of that late day pullback. Also because the market had pierced through 3000 and 27,000 earlier and didn't hold above them. I was a little worried about that being a failure attempt and that we could rollover this morning and open down. It's still possible I guess but less likely with the capture of the all important "even number" levels.

Like I said yesterday, the Fed's are pumping $75 Billion a day into this market and will do so until at least October 10th (the last day on their schedule). So it's going to be hard to believe we'll get much going on the downside with that kind of funny money supporting it. Is it cheating? Of course it is, but that's what all governments do... so don't be shocked. Everything in this world that has value the elite have lots of it, and they therefore have a vested interest in keep the inflated pig of a stock market up as high as possible for as long as possible. When they know they can't keep it up much longer they start selling out slowly over many months in advance, and once they are done they pull the plug and let it collapse.

That time is coming but probably not until next year. It will be an epic battle between those elite in control of the market and Trump as he will attempt to keep the market up until after the election. Who will win is unknown but odds say the elite will as they've done this move many times in the past (think 1929, 1987, 2000, and 2007) and presidents never stopped them back then, so what makes you think this time will be different? I don't. I think they will drop this market hard in 2020 regardless of what Trump wants. Will he still get re-elected? Probably so, as he'll blame it on the elite (aka, the deep state)... and he'll be correct.

Anyway, for today I don't see much happening. Looks like another boring day where bears try to short it and the funny money keeps it from going down. We appear to be rangebound again this week. But it's a pretty nice and wide range, and should be fun for day traders to go in an out. We were down in the low 2980's yesterday and we could easily revisit it again and still be rangebound. As you all know I'm looking for that last top before the drop starts that takes us down the June 3rd lows. It's coming but with all the funny money being put into the market we might not see it start until after October 10th... just don't know yet? But I'll get some great clues along the way I'm sure and if a strong sell signal triggers prior to that date I should be able to catch it. Until then it's more chop. Have a great day.

Sunday night the market popped higher but this morning it erase all those gains, so I'm not sure what to think about it right now? I'll have to wait to see what the day brings to get a better feel for it. I will add that the Fed's have scheduled $75 Billion worth of QE going on each day until October 10th, so we might not see any new downtrend start until after it's finished. More then likely we'll be range-bound between the mid-high 2900's up to the low-mid 3000's, with some breakout to a new all time high likely before the coming correction down to the June, 2019 low (at least that's where I think it's going).

This breakout though should be brief and not hold more then a day, nor lead to some move up to 3100, 3150, or whatever the big upside targets are currently. This is what I currently see, and it based a lot on the Fed's injecting all that stimulus into the market each day, which should keep it from starting any new downtrend. If it doesn't look like it's going to hold then I should get some kind of signals saying so, and will of course update everyone.

Today however is a mystery to me. We are into a support zone from 9/5 to 9/11, so I'd lean toward an early low and a float back up the rest of the day. Then the rest of this week I'll just have to watch closely to see if any sell signals get through the QE being put into the market. Maybe one still develops and makes it until the trigger date, but I'm not holding my breath on it. Anyway, have a blessed day.

Yesterdays grind higher came late in the day after first fading back lower. The move up came extremely close to hitting a new all time high on the ES Futures but stopped shy at around 3024.50, which is even lower then last weeks high of 3025.75, and both are still below the all time high of 3029.50. What's interesting is that the SPY might or might not have made a new all time high?

I show a high of 302.63 yesterday with the all time high of 302.68, but in a video I watched yesterday by another trader he claimed it did indeed make a new all time high. Not sure what to make of that but possibly the issue has to do with the SPY going ex-dividend this morning, which means it will be a little over a dollar lower then normal as the dividend payout was a little over a dollar. This adjust happens every 3 months. It's still weird though as yesterday, before this dividend adjustment, I still did not see any new all time on my chart.

Anyway, moving on.... the DOW is still a ways off from an new all time on it, so nothing note there. So is the QQQ and IWM, which basically tells me that it's not important whether the SPY hit a new high or not as all the other indexes have not. Ok, next topic... the plan of action. As you can see the pattern of the FOMC day closing green worked this time, and the pattern of "them" holding the market sideways until the week is over is also working. But all the various option classes will officially expire today and end Quad Witching.

Next week will be where the rubber meets the road as the bulls will not have the same protection (manipulation), so it should make the market more freely traded with technical s working again. The bulls will need to take out the current all time highs to get a big squeeze going, but charts are still very overbought on many time frames, so even if they manage to do that a pullback will still be needed at the minimum.

But if they fail to make a new all time high (across the board, not just one index), the downside risk is large. The FP I have on the QQQ points to a retest of the June 3rd lows. However, I do not know the future, so telling you for 100% that we are going to drop would be a lie... so I won't. But odds certainly favor a move down starting some time next week. Last year around this time (September 21st, 2018) the market topped on Quad Witching, dropped about 3 days of the following week and rallied back up into October 3rd for the last lower high before the waterfall drop into Christmas started.

It would be odds to see a repeat of the exact same pattern, but the dates the move down starts could be similar. The difference would happen when (if?) we retest the June 3rd, 2019 lows, as the next move up would likely take us up to a new all time high into the end of the year and a lot of people might compare that low to the October 29th, 2018 low and try to short it on every bounce looking for that final drop into Christmas (that started on December 3rd, 2018 ) to be next. That's where they would get tricked as after the low is hit (late October 2019 likely) the move up should continue with only small pullbacks along the way. This is my current thought going forward into the rest of the year. Have a wonderful weekend.

The FOMC is now over and what I wild day it was after the minutes were released with wild swings up and down several times until a sharp drop went down and stayed down for a little while before ripping back up into the close. It wasn't your typical meeting, that's for sure. What does it all mean? It's a crack in the dam the bulls built I think. It says things aren't as good as many think.

It doesn't mean we are ready to rollover and start a nice correction yet, but it does tell me that the upside is limited here. I do not know if we will make a new all time high or not but I'll sit with the pattern from past FOMC days where a turn happens within 2-4 days afterwards. The Fed don't want to be the blame for any lasting drop after a meeting so they hold up the market for several days until some other news event can take the blame. The VIX contracts expired yesterday, and we still have other index contracts and options yet to go, but they will all be done by the close on Friday.

Next week will be free to start a correction and I do still think we'll see it. But right now I don't know what day will be the start of that down move. I should be able to figure it out as we get closer but for now we are still likely to chop around until this week ends. Bulls need to step on it if they want a new all time high as "time" is their enemy. My best guess is that if they don't make it by Monday or Tuesday of next week then it's not happening.

For today I don't see much. A grind higher or sideways to keep the bears trapped that shorted the bottom yesterday, and of course make all the puts expire worthless into tomorrow. That's about all I have to add as most everything I've already said in prior morning updates this week still apply. Have a wonderful day and may God Bless you in life.

The ES futures were down as much as 20 points Sunday night but have recovered a lot of it now this premarket Monday morning. However, it's a common thing for the market to revisit the lows made in any premarket session during normal trading hours, so my guess is that we'll see that happen here today as well. It's looking like it's going to spend the early part of today in bounce mode and the late part rolling over to do that retest, but it doesn't matter to me how it does it as I'll just wait for it and look to exit my shorts when hit.

This is typical action for an FOMC week as traders seem to rally up for weeks in front of a meeting but then exit those longs on the Monday or Tuesday before the Wednesday announcement. Just fear of the unknown basically, as they "buy the rumor", "exit right before the fact", and will later "sell the news". With this week also being a Quad Witching week where 4 different asset classes all expire between Wednesday and Friday it's the perfect time for a top of some kind in the market.

Since we are at a double top zone as well on most of the indexes it just adds more reason for a correction to start after this week is over week and all those options expire. The market makers love to sell the VIX via naked call options, so it's to their advantage to drive the market down so the VIX will rally up higher and be worth more. Since the futures contract on the VIX runs 3 months just like the ES futures does, this coming Thursday will start a new 3 month contract.

So we should be watch for a 2-3 week correction the market shortly after this new contract starts. Then they will sell those VIX calls and rally the market back up into the end of the year so the VIX tanks again and they keep the premium sold. I'm looking for a sell signal to trigger by the close this Thursday or Friday. Then I'll look for an 18-20 day move down as that's the typical time period.

This week though I'm still thinking there will be some kind of rally back up after the Fed to hit the FP on the QQQ's as it only got within 7 cents of hitting it and all the other FP's were hit. It's the last one and hopefully it times out with the short expected on Thursday or Friday. I have a downside FP on the QQQ too, which basically is just a little above the June 3rd low. Anyway, back to the present. Again, I think we'll retest the premarket lows today and tomorrow we should go up some, but more then likely it will be a "pause" day as traders wait on the FOMC meeting. May God Bless us all this important week.

Yesterday was a very frustrating day for the bears as the turn back down did not happen, and so far it's not looking likely for today either with the premarket futures up small this morning. The ECB meeting had no affect on the markets here, so next up is the FOMC meeting next week. We've had 2 out of 3 FP's hit currently but the last one is being stubborn and getting close but not officially hitting. The SPY and IWM FP's are fulfilled but the QQQ got within 7 cents and stopped and reversed.

This is very unusual as most of the time when a FP is hit there is a "turn" in the market pretty quickly. Rarely does do they hit and continue on in the same direction. But since the SPY and IWM are barely over their FP's and are not exploding higher I would call them more of just "pausing" until the QQQ hits its FP, and then they should all roll over together. I suspect they are holding off on hitting the QQQ FP as they want to keep the market up into the coming FOMC meeting next week. Plus there's Quad Witching next week as well.

So there will be 4 different asset classes expiring all at once. This means the stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures. Market Makers commonly sell naked calls on the VIX and/or naked puts on the various indexes, so it is important for them to manipulate the market so those options expire worthless so they get to keep the money.

If the market was to tank between now and next Wednesday the VIX could explode upwards and they would be at risk of losing an unlimited amount. So they will make sure that the VIX stays low until those options expire worthless. Afterwards, when a next contract starts, it's wide open and ripe for a drop in the market. I suspect this is the plan going into next Wednesday for the VIX and Friday for all the other expiration's.

So, it's not looking good for the bears catching a big short here anytime soon. If the pullback any today or Monday it will likely be just a tease to lure in more shorts as fuel to squeeze them up so they can make new all time highs. This assumes they can't do that today, which is really unknown at this point. They've hit 3025.75 on the ES Futures and the current all time high is 3029.50 at the end of July. The DOW Futures has only hit 27,312 in the premarket session and it's prior high was 27,397... so still a ways to go yet.

Could they hit today? Sure, but odds are they will pullback some to lure in some bears for fuel to squeeze later. If the pullback isn't today then it should be Monday. Then back up into the FOMC I'd guess to at least squeak out a slightly "higher high" for a new all time high. I'm NOT expecting some huge run up to 3100, 3150, etc... but instead (at best) a little higher to trick the sheep before a nice move down happens.

We'll get to that 28,500-29,000 level on the DOW by the end of the year, but not likely on this first pierce through it (if it does it by next week, and before the QQQ's hit their FP). My focus now will be on the QQQ's since it's the only one left that still has a FP to hit, so if sideways to slightly down into next Wednesday and then a fast pop high to fulfill that FP that's where I'll look to get short at as the VIX contracts will have expired and it's likely then that the market will drop on Thursday or Friday. Have a great weekend everyone.

As I told to everyone in the free chatroom yesterday the Lucy3 sell was killed yesterday morning with the move down. For the sell to have setup at the close the market would have needed to have very little weakness all day and grind up higher. It did close green but the move down was too much and killed that setup.

But we still have the upside FP on the SPY to look for as a turning point. If it get hit today or tomorrow I'll be interested in a short. True, it won't be a huge one that drops to 2800 or even 2700, but it will be a nice short never the less. That Lucy3 would have been a Grand Slam Home-run, but they don't come along that often so we are back to looking for just base hits, like singles and sometimes doubles.

If we hit the FP by the close tomorrow (looks tired this morning from the move up yesterday) then it should be good for a move back down to a "possible" FP of 294.04 SPY, which is basically a backtest of the 2940 prior resistance zone on the SPX... and I'd call that a nice double if it happens all in one day, like on Friday. A drop from 300.84 to 294.04 is over 60 SPX points, so it's a nice short anyway you look at it. No guarantees though on it dropping that far, but it is a logic area to retest. If it only drops 20-30 points then we get a nice single... still worth playing in my opinion.

It's pretty clear to me that those that control the market do not want it to take out the 200 day simple moving average on the daily chart as they held it up every time the SPX got near it over the past month or two, which was down in the low 2800 SPX area. Today it's at 2813.21 and the only recent time we touched it was at the June 3rd, 2019 low.

This market is very likely going to put in new all time highs and run up to 28,500-29,000 on the DOW before the year ends (Oscar Carboni's targets), but trying to guess the "when" part (on the new all time highs) isn't easy. For now I'll just focus on the day to day moves and not worry about the next game.

I'm looking for singles and doubles and my guess at this point is that we'll hit the upside FP on Thursday and that a nice short will setup when it does. Today looks choppy again, but a move down to make a higher low into the close today would be a nice B wave of some degree with the A up starting at the low yesterday. Then maybe we get the C up tomorrow for the hit and pierce of the FP? That's what I'm looking for... good luck.

Here we are gang, one day before a very important ECB meeting and the anniversary of the 911 False Flag 18 years ago. Even though the European Central Bank doesn't set polices for America the Fed's do watch what they do and are influenced by them. So any disappointment with the ECB will spook traders as they will assume the Fed's will do the same at the FOMC meeting coming up on the 18th this month.

Doing this meeting when we were still stuck in that sideways range between the overhead resistance around 2940 SPX and the support around 2800 would have left everyone guessing on which direction would go as good news would have squeezed the bears and took out 2940 on a rally and bad news would have taken out 2800 on the downside. But here we are above 2940 after squeezing the bears last week on a move up out of that 1-2 month trading range.

One has to use logic here and question on how many bears are left to squeeze now if good news comes out of the ECB meeting? Will it be enough to reach new all time highs? Personally I doubt it. I think the bulls blew it by squeezing the bears too early. Any good news out the ECB now will likely have a very muted response on the upside I believe. But bad news will be a disaster as then that Large C Wave down that everyone is still looking for could indeed show up. And it should take out the lower support in the 2800's this time around I think.

Today we need the bulls to continue on up and close green like they are all happy and sure of themselves about tomorrow. This will put the bears to sleep of course and that's exactly what is needed for tomorrow should the ECB disappoint as I believe they will. This couldn't be any better scripted if it was a movie. We have the FOMC on the 18th and that's just 5 trading days for the bears to tank this market going into that meeting.

Of course if this happens the Fed's won't disappoint and will instead say something super positive to save the market. So the bottom should be in on the 17th I believe, which just happens to be a passport code from the Jason Bourne movie. Well, well... isn't that interesting? I've seen this movie before, like putting a bottom on August 24th, 2015 from a Flash Crash... only then the passport code was from the movie called Lucy.

I'm sure it's all just a coincidence and the stock market is random, not rigged years in advance like I'm suggesting. 🙂 Keep this to yourself and don't share it please as I'd hate for it to stop working from too many sheep finding out. Root for a rally today, and have a blessed day.

The weekend is gone and it's time to get back to trading... or trying to at least. This morning the futures are up a little but nothing huge. As you all know I'm looking for an upside FP on the SPY to be hit (and pierced) to mark the top of this rally. That doesn't mean it'going to rollover and crash of course, but it should provide at least a decent pullback, if not more?

We'd have to close green today and tomorrow for the "more" part, and that's on the SPX and DOW. With the charts so overbought on the short term that's asking a lot as one of the two days is likely to close red I believe. It would kill a large sell setup but a smaller one could still happen at some point this week. It would be rare to see the market NOT back-test the prior resistance around 2940 on the SPX, before marching higher to a new all time high again.

Unfortunately I don't think we'll get lucky enough to trigger a very big sell that I've been hoping for, but we'll just take it day by day I guess and play what the market gives us. For right now I'm focused on the upside FP as it could be hit today since it's only a little over a point or so higher on the SPY right now.

That could easily be hit today, but again, I wouldn't be surprised if the market doesn't pullback small today and close red to kill that big sell setting up for tomorrow. I don't have my hopes up for it, as it would be super rare to see it trigger tomorrow. Bulls just need to back down today and either drop enough intraday to kill it, or just close red today... or tomorrow. Anyway, that's what I'm looking at for today. I'll keep everyone updated via the free chatroom of course. Have a blessed day.

The bulls did a great job of holding the market up all day yesterday to keep the bears trapped. This morning they are continuing that plan and even made a slightly higher high a little bit ago. The jobs data produced a small pullback but it's about erased now. All looks good for the bulls to continue the march higher into next week. At this point the "possible" FP of 300.84 on the SPY is looking more and more real, and could be the upside target for early next week. That would be a little over 3000 on the SPX/ES... like about 3008.40 I'd guess. This is really going to frustrate the bears, but that's exactly what it's supposed to do.

Once the even number targets of 27,000 DOW and 3000 SPX are hit and pierced through you can bet that everyone will become super bullish looking for a new all time high. The bears will flip to long and become bulls. The bulls will be bigger bulls. The northbound train will be trying to climb the steep mountain with an overload of bulls onboard. That's just when the engine blows and the train will start falling back down hard and fast with no brakes. This is what I suspect will happen.

If you are a bear then patience is the key here. Start rooting for this grind higher to continue into about next Tuesday to hit that FP on the SPY. If we get that and don't see any large pullback between now and the close on Tuesday then my bet is that all the bears will be put to sleep or will have flipped to bulls, and that's about the time I'll be shorting with both feet and hands as I expect a cliff dive move to start the very next day. Have a great weekend.

Yesterday the big sell setup was canceled as the market rallied too much throughout the day. It needed to have weakness all day long and instead it rallied up to retest the 2940 resistance for the 6th attempt at breaking through it. In the chatroom I posted charts and comments that clearly suggested there was NO Short at the close, yet I foolishly did NOT listen to my own advice and instead took a small wildcard put position.

Needless to say that was stupid as the future ripped higher after-hour and got well past that resistance zone. Now they are stalling some this morning after hitting as high as 2971.75, but still well above that prior area of resistance. If I was going to take any wildcard position it should have been long, not short. Odds favored the bulls getting through the zone this go around. But I went against my own analysis and did that stupid wildcard put trade, so now I'll pay the price. Thank goodness it was a small one.

My punishment for today is to finally put on and wear a black and white striped shirt one of my relatives bought me for a birthday or Christmas... can't remember. But if I had a pair of pants to match it I'd look like a prisoner from many decades ago when they made them wear black and white outfits.

Anyway, the futures are up against a rising trendline of resistance but I'm still not excited about trying another short here. I'll stand pat and do nothing today as I suspect this up move has more then one day in it. I could see this chopping around next week to and continuing to grind up. Yeah, we should come back down at some point and retest the 2940 "former resistance" area... which then becomes support.

But I wouldn't count on that happening today. Most likely the bulls will hold this current area to make sure all the trapped bears give up. And let's not forget that there's a "possible" FP out there of 300.84 on the SPY, so that's around 3000 or more on the ES/SPX. Plus that's a nice round number, which still attracts the market like a magnet. My guess is that (again) we do some chop into next week and make a run for that FP where then we top out as all the bears become bulls expecting the all time high to be broken. Nothing on the horizon for today... trade-wise, so I'll just end here and go back to my prison cell. Have a great day and God bless.

Looks like we got the rally that was spoken about in the free chatroom yesterday. Guess I should have went long but again I didn't like the fact that the rally started in the last hour before the close. I would have liked it better if the market would have closed near the lows and then surprised everyone with this rally. It would have also had more strength I believe as a gap up tricks many and triggers buy stops on the shorts.

The rally starting before the close alerted the bears that it was coming so I suspect many closed out their shorts, which then limits the distance this bounce can really go. I seriously doubt if it can get past the prior highs in the 2940's, as this is now the 6th attempt back up. Something has to give here soon I think as if the bulls can't breakthrough this support zone on this attempt I have to believe that the next move down is going to be a large one... the kind that takes out the 8/5 low.

I'm not sure if it's going to start tomorrow or Friday but we are very close to a big drop starting. I'd certainly feel more comfortable if there was another fast pierce through that 2940 zone to hit some stops on the bears before starting this down move but SkyNet makes it very tricky and hard to see ahead of time. There's a "possible" FP of 300.84 (about 3000 ES/SPX) that worries me.  Anyway, for today (and tomorrow) I'll be looking for a big short to setup at the close. When I take it I'll of course post it in the chatroom. Have a great day.

The holiday is over now and it's time to get back to the market, which is down about 20 points currently this early Tuesday morning. A big move is coming soon as the both the bulls and bears are getting tired I'm sure. One of them is going to give up and I think it's going to be the bulls. They've tried 5 times now to breakout of that 2940's zone of resistance and couldn't get much more then a slight pierce over it last Friday. Logic tells me it's time for the bears to drop it hard soon.

I don't see that happening today... but soon it's coming. Right now the bulls have found some support from a falling pink trendline. I'd still love to see a fast squeeze above that 2940 area of resistance before rolling over so they can get the bears out first, but with 5 failed attempts the odds aren't good for that happening. We'll just take it one day at a time now. As for today I think we'll find a bottom within the first 2 hours of the day holding above that falling pink trendline, and then rally some the rest of the day.

I'm not really expecting much action today as traders get back to work and try to figure out what to do next. But over the coming days I do think a big move will setup and show its hand. I think it will be a sell but I can't rule out completely that fast squeeze up through 2940 to shake out the bears might happen first... then down. I don't think it will happen that way, as odds don't support it.. but it would certainly fool the most traders I believe.

The higher odds play here is for some more range-bound trading until late this week where a large sell will setup and a big drop start the next day. We could see it as early as Wednesdays close but more then likely it will be triggered at the close on Thursday or Friday. But until it happens we are still stuck in a large trading zone with no clear direction. Have a blessed day.

Well gang, I guess I exited too early on my longs yesterday at the close. Bummer. But a win is a win and always better then a loss. The futures have successfully pushed through the 2940 horizontal zone of a resistance, which was what I was thinking was going to happen on this 5th hit. But it's not easy to hold your position when you see short term charts getting very overbought and when you have a nice profit, so I did exit all my long yesterday and went to cash.

We still have the "possible" FP on the SPY that could mark the top of this rally up? But I don't know how many days it's going to take to get there unfortunately. With this quad top now broken in the premarket the bulls only job would be to hold it all day and make it support. Then they can rally another 40-60 points (ES/SPX) easily next week. This is common behavior for a large B wave up (from the 2775 low) to have a final rally (small C inside medium C) over prior resistance (the four prior tops around 2940) to take out all the shorts before rolling over to start the large C wave down. I guess yesterday I just didn't believe the market had the strength to do it, which is why I bailed out on my longs.

Of course if the bulls where to lose this level today and close back below the quad tops it could get ugly for them next week, but I suspect they will indeed hold it and end this week on a positive note going into the 3 day holiday. Then if they plan on taking it up to the FP on the SPY they should put out some positive news over Labor Day to juice the market again next Tuesday at the open. I suspect that a lot of traders will remain bearish these next 3 days looking for something bad to be released and cause a gap down on Tuesday, but this premarket rally over prior resistance is quite bullish, not bearish.

It's all about the bulls HOLDING this level into the close today. As long as they can do that I'd expect a run for the upside FP on the SPY next week. But if they rollover today and start dropping then it could get pretty ugly. There's a "possible" after-hours downside FP on the SPY yesterday around 4:25 showing a low of 288.88, which would bad for the bulls if it's a real target and not just a late fill from the open (which is what it looks like). Bottom line here is that today is NOT a day you want to just walk away from and start the weekend early. Anything can happen from the open till the close.

As I said, I exited my longs yesterday because the short term charts were looking too overbought to continue up again today... yet they did anyway. So they are NOT any less "overbought" but MORE overbought. Holding this level all day isn't going to be an easy task by the bulls so don't just assume it's going to be a boring day. We "could" (again, NOT saying it will but happen, but possible) see a late day rollover and move down to that "possible" FP of 288.88, which is about a 60 point drop on the ES/SPX from here. Holiday reversals are common as SkyNet knows traders aren't paying attention.

So today is more important then it looks. Hold the level into the close and the bulls can rip it up next week another 40-60 SPX points... lose it isn't an option for them. In fact if the bulls lose it and we drop hard into the close it might just end the large B up and be the start of the large C down. If I take any position I'll of course post it in real time in the free chatroom. Have a great weekend and may God bless you.

Yesterday was one tough day as the market was at a critical point where it could have just as easily gaped down this morning or gaped up. I had all those crazy feelings come into my gut telling me to panic and sell my longs, but I held them. Yeah, it was risky but I asked God for help is deciding and as strange as that might sound he gave me the courage to hold on to my longs.

If you have never felt the devil telling you to panic and close your position (usually while in a losing spot) then I guess I'm the only crazy one. But I suspect everyone feels it when SkyNet is trying to scare you out of a trade as you watch the tick by tick action throughout the day. Then at the last minute you panic and close out your trade for a loss (or small win), only to watch it rip in your direction the next day.

That's the feeling I had yesterday going into the close. It's like satan himself is whispering into my ears telling me to panic and close out the trade. But I held long as I ask God to help me each and every day. So hear we are this morning with the futures up nicely but coming into that overhead resistance zone around 2940 where the bulls where stopped 4 times in the past. If they can't get through this 5th attempt then my guess is that the sideways large B wave up from the 8/5 low will be finished and the next big move down will break that prior low and start the large C wave down.

I'd really like to see this resistance broken so all the stops can be ran on the bears. Then the next drop will be even larger as there won't be as many bears short, which always puts a floor on how deep you can go. Naturally I'd like to see it drop to that "possible" FP from 1/7/19 of 245.29 on the SPY. While a breakout above wouldn't necessarily be required I don't think it would make it a lot easier (and faster) I believe if the bears were stopped out before the coming large C wave down starts.

So if the bulls can take out that 2940 wall of resistance today then they could squeeze up as high as 3000 I'd guess. And we have a "possible" upside FP of 300.84 on the SPY, so that's what I'd look for as a top of this large B up from the 2775 low. Will it happen? I don't know? I just keep asking God for wisdom, courage, strength, patience and discernment each day and let the rest take care of itself. Have a blessed day.

P.S.  We are going into a 3 day holiday weekend where "turns" are common, so today and tomorrow are the bulls best chance to take out that 2940 resistance zone.