In the chatroom yesterday I suggested that we might have started some kind of ABC move up from the Sunday night low on the futures. If so, then the A likely ended at the open yesterday where the B wave down started. It could end today at the open as it's close to a "possible" FP from Monday after-hours. From there I'd expect a C wave up to last into the end of this week, or maybe into early next week.
If this plays out then it should be the last series of waves to complete a larger B wave up from the 8/5 low of 2775... especially if we take out the quadruple top area of resistance around the 2940 area. But even if we don't take it out a 5th hit of it has to be the last one before the bulls just throw in the towel on getting through it. I'm in the camp that there are too many bears awake and short right now, which tells me a "much needed" squeeze over that 2940 area is needed before the big drop to retest the December lows can start.
We are going into a 3 day weekend as well for Labor Day, so if ever there was a good time to do a squeeze it would be perfect now. It's been a common pattern of SkyNet to make the market look positive before a holiday, but it's also been common to see "turns" happen around them. So if we rally hard then the "turn" would be back down, or if we continue down then the "turn" would be up after the holiday.
But considering how bearish traders are right now I don't see a huge drop happening going into the holiday. None of us sheep know whats coming next for certain, but we can do "best guesses" using all the available facts and evidence at hand. SkyNet is a master at tricking the sheep, and when things are too obvious they rarely play out. I've heard others talk about the "MA" pattern the market is making, which it is indeed... but it's so obvious that I doubt if it plays out.
You add in the holiday coming, the "too many bears short", the possible (and likely) wave count that is missing a final C wave up, and the technical s that still say we are very oversold on the short term... and you have enough factors for me to believe we will go up into Friday and drop next week, versus drop hard today, tomorrow and Friday and rally next week. But, the big question is... how high will we rally? Will we take out the quadruple top around 2940 to squeeze out the shorts, or will it truncate short? We have until Friday to find out.
Insider: Is Trump Family Cult Behind Coming Armageddon?
(April 12, 2018) Here, Michael Berg laid said Trump is the instrument of a fanatical Cabalist cult, the Chabad, which believes the goyim must be destroyed in the Third World War in order for the “Messiah” to return and assume leadership over a Masonic Jewish-dominated world.
David Goldberg, 59, left was murdered June 8 after revealing that a White House insider had provided him with memos that revealed: 1) Trump had converted to Judaism two years ago and was planning an attack on Iran this autumn in order to fulfill Jewish prophecy. 2)Trump believes his son-in-law Jared Kushner is destined to be the Messiah (i.e. the antichrist)
(Disclaimer – I cannot vouch for this information but it certainly confirms our worst fears and cannot be ignored.)
Source (excerpts by henrymakow.com)
President Donald Trump converted to Judaism two years ago, and joined the Chabad Lubavitch synagogue in New York City, according to a high-level White House official.
According to the source, Trump was “pushed” by his daughter Ivanka and his son in law, Jared Kushner, to join the faith. At first, Trump resisted, stating it could threaten his base of Evangelical Christian voters. However, he had a change of heart and officially converted in early 2017. The ceremony was held in private and closely guarded for nearly two years.
It appears the White House is prepared to slowly release this information, and by Summer, it is expected Trump will fully address his new faith in an evening televised news conference.
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President Donald Trump and his inner circle are planning an extensive invasion of Iran, according to a source working in the White House.
The plan involves a ground invasion and the use of tactical nuclear weapons, in a campaign planned for the Fall of 2019. Iran will be “wiped off the map” according to the source, and the war effort is expected to cost “two and half times the Iraq War.”
The war will be promoted by the news media and Trump will go right along with it, after an “expected False Flag pinned on Iran, probably something involving the boats in the Strait of Hormuz.” The False Flag is an “integral part of the plan” as Iran has reportedly no desire or intent to start a war, according to the whistle-blower.
The war plans have the White House staff “in an excited tizzy” as war-hawks like John Bolton put the “finishing touches” on the planned strike.
President Trump initially showed resistance to the plan, but has since jumped on board with enthusiasm, convinced Iran is an “existential threat to Israel” and as such, war is required to “eliminate them.”
Further details have been revealed, including 100 tactical nukes will be used to eliminate the Iranian military. 120,000 U.S. ground troops will be used in the invasion. France, the U.K., Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Israel are expected to join a “coalition” in support of the war. CIA assets and counter-intel efforts have been ramped-up over the past year in preparation. A “False Flag” is being prepared to be used before the war with Iran. Propaganda is being prepped by White House and Israeli counterparts. Israel will support the effort and Benjamin Netanyahu was reportedly “smiling ear to ear” during a recent meeting with John Bolton. There are concerns Trump’s “base” may resist or criticize the efforts, so further propaganda efforts are being made to “shore up support” for the war. Expected casualties range between 1.2 Million and 2 Million Iranians and 5,000 US troops.
Due to President Trump’s close relationship with Jared Kushner, a sense of “sober import” has been placed on the war effort, which is being as a fulfillment of “Jewish prophecy” within White House circles. Many in the White House believe Jared Kushner is the “Messiah” or Jewish “Moshiach” who cannot attain his “throne” until Iran is wiped out.
The White House source is a high-level official who has been right about many other things in the past, and their identity has been verified.
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President Donald Trump has reportedly told close senior White House associates that he wants Jared Kushner on the presidential ticket in 2020.
Two senior sources have said the President has expressed he would prefer Kushner as Vice President over Mike Pence, in part due to the fact Trump believes Kushner is the Jewish “Messiah” or Moshiach.
The sources added that Trump said he generally likes the job Mike Pence has done, but that the President stated “things are moving so quickly with our plans in Israel, that we need Kushner closer to power.” The quote was provided by a source who said that Trump said this, verbatim, word for word. The source did not speculate on what the President meant by “plans in Israel” or why Kushner would need to be closer to power.
The Kushner family continues to garner controversy, with the recent publication of “Kushner, Inc.” by author and researcher Vicky Ward.
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A person friend reveals:
David kept me abreast of things over email, and he told me he had been given some documents he felt could, for certain, get him killed. The documents related to some internal White House memos in which a couple of New York rabbis were meeting with Trump frequently, and the memos talked about the nature of those meetings. I didn’t get full details, except that it seems the rabbis were going to deliver for Trump a reelection victory if he did things they were asking. I guess Trump was listening intently, because — well this is what David said to me — because the rabbis had a lot of power, in ways in which they could rig the elections if they needed to.
The memos also talked about how Trump’s poll numbers were not very good and he could easily lose in 2020, and the White House knew this, and this was part of the reason why Trump was paying so much attention to these rabbis. I guess they just have a lot of control or something, and Trump needed them. David said the documents if they ever got out, would be very bad for Trump, because there was no way to put a positive spin on them. He said the memos were pretty blunt and seemed to have been written by a couple of staffers coordinating the meetings.
There were also documents in David’s safe that we were able to recover after the cops left. They took a lot of David’s stuff without any explanation as to why, but they didn’t get the safe, which was a floor safe and it’s possible they didn’t even know it was there. In fact, we’re pretty certain they didn’t know it was there, because it is very well hidden.
David was smart and put pretty much everything in that safe that was important. David had also given at least three friends access to his online accounts, and said if something happened to him, to be ready to take over.
The rest of his stuff, which was paper, notes, his computers and phones had some information but nothing like what was in the safe, where he kept all of it. The friends removed everything from his safe, and have made copies of what they could and have those copies in safe places in case anything happens.
There will be some more updates coming. We are talking on a video which will show the documents, and also we have retained a lawyer to go over how best we can present the information David left behind.”
Still in no mans land between support below and resistance overhead. Nothing is really clear for the direction which is exactly how SkyNet likes it I'm sure. You can't go long here or short, so you just wait until a better opportunity shows up. The SPX/ES has hit a brick-wall about 4 times around the 1940 area, so you have to think that if they hit it a 5th time they will get through it and start a nice bear squeeze... at least that's I'm preferred scenario.
Why? Because we've had too many large down days in the past several weeks without breaking down and starting the journey to the revisit the December 2018 lows, or get close at least. There is too much bearishness out there I believe and that usually prevents any flash crash, crash or super large drop from happening.
Bears need to become bulls for drops like the December one to occur. So while I'm a bear at heart I'm looking for a strong move up first before I'm interested in shorting for the ride down to the 1/7/19 FP. This morning this rally up is running into the falling yellow trendline of resistance and has yet to putting in any positive divergence. It suggests to me that the market isn't yet strong enough to push through overhead resistance. Maybe it just through the yellow trendline but I don't think it will get through that 2940 quadruple top zone.
But if the bulls were smart they'd pullback today about half the move up from the Sunday night low and turn back up tomorrow so that they'd have created positive divergence and then they'd have a much better chance of not only getting past the yellow falling trendline of resistance but even the 2940 area well. It would have the added benefit of getting even more bears short, which is more fuel for a short squeeze on the way back up.
It's a tricky move as I have to think that another big drop here is going to be seen in advance by all the bears and they will be expecting it to take out the Sunday night lows, so they will ride the squeeze back up thinking it's just a bounce before going lower again. I'd love to play both the down move and the up move but getting SkyNet to give me a perfect setup is like trying to train a shark not to bite you. Anyway, that's my thoughts for today. I don't know how it's going to play out but I'm still rooting for a bear squeeze so the real big drop can start. Have a great day and God Bless.
It's the wild, wild west stock market with mini-flash-crashes it seems! I've missed a lot of big moves as it just didn't see them coming, especially not to the degree of depth that they went. What does it all mean? To me it says the end is near for the sideways rally up from the 8/5 low and the next big drop is right around the corner. Since the 7/29 high of 3029 on the ES, down to the 8/5 low of 2775 is a total of 254 points in total (to make a large A wave), one could expect a similar move down for the large C wave at the very least. If the 2940 high sticks for the large B wave up then 2686 would be the expect low if C equals A.
But many C waves go much more then just the length of the A, some even go double... which would be about 2432, and that's pretty close to the 245.29 FP on the SPY from 1/7/19. So I would not be surprised if that's the planned target low with the large C wave down. It's also looking like it might just go right into our passport code of September 17th, 2019.
Anyway, for the short term I'm expecting a bounce today, which we call already see that the futures are up nicely from the overnight low of 2810. What could happen (meaning... if I were SkyNet this is what I'd do) is move back down some right at the open as new shorts that missed the Friday drop pile on... and trapped longs try to get out with a smaller loss. But this should be a trap on the bears as a strong move back up is more likely then another large drop today. I would drop it early to tease the bears and somewhere between the open and the 11:30 am EST Europe close (and lunchtime for Americans) I'd turn it back up and start the squeeze the rest of the day into the close.
If fact if you really want the bears completely out before the next large drop you should take it all the way back up to the highs on Friday... yeah the 2940 zone! I know, that's crazy but there's a "possible" FP on the SPY after the close (looks more like a late fill, but could be a real FP?) showing 292.28, so don't be shocked if SkyNet pulls another move back up to that level today. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it's very possible.
This isn't your normal market where you get perfect 50% retracements or so other Fibonacci level to short at. It's NOT the 70' or 80's market where only the insiders and professional traders had access to technical analysis. Now the sheep have the same tools as the pro's do, and thinking that the old school style of trading would continue to work today with the masses having the same knowledge and access as the elite is just foolish.
The market has completely changed since computers gave the sheep the charting ability of the pro's. If we do indeed get this rally back up today that retraces almost 100% of the move down on Friday (or even pierces through 2940 to run stops) I'll go out on a limb and say that's the last strong move up before the big down move starts into September (aka, the large C wave down).
Needless to say I'll be looking to short the close today if we get such a powerful rally. If we only get 50% (almost there right now if you include the Sunday night low) I'd be shocked and would have to decide on what to do at that point. I might wait another day or I might still short it. I'll of course post it in the free chatroom. Good luck to everyone today.
Wild moves in the market yesterday with a fast drop around 10am and then up the rest of the day into the close, which keep going up afterhours and premarket, looking like it was going to gap up, but then around 8am this morning the market took another nose dive. It's certainly showing some serious weakness the last few days, which leads me to believe we are close a big drop starting. I mean a multi-day move, not just intra-day. I'm still rooting for (and hoping for) a fast "last gasp" pop over the prior double top area to squeeze out the shorts. Then a reversal back down to start the next drop.
They are common but predicting the "when" part is tough. I don't see that happening today but next week is looking good right now for that strong sell signal to trigger. The move down from the 3029 high to the 2775 low is clearly a large A wave, and the sideways move up since then is a large B wave. Inside that large B up there's a medium A into the 8/9 high, then a 3 wave (small ABC) move down for the medium B into the 8/15 low, and from there the medium C up started... which we are still in today. I'm unsure on the smaller count inside it but I do believe its' near completion. Once it does, which I suspect will be early next week, it will end large B up and allow large C down to start, which is the move I'm patiently waiting on. Have a blessed weekend.
Still not going anywhere it seems. I've been waiting for a breakout to the upside for a run up to a possible FP at 297.53 from 8/1 to squeeze out the bears, and then I'd be looking to short it. And there's not been any decent pullback to get long on so I remain in cash looking for a higher odds play. This overhead zone of resistance has been hit now about 4 times, so it's much weaker now then on the 2nd hit that made the double top.
The downside FP from 8/16 is 284.71, so that's the level I'd look to be hit after the upside FP is hit. Or if we dropped first to the downside one I'd look to go long into the upside FP, but right now we are going nowhere fast. The Jackson Hole event starts today but Friday is the main day, so the market is still in "wait mode" basically as it hopes to hear some news from the banksters.
As we know (or should know by now) the market goes through different modes from bullish to bearish to neutral over and over again. So you must either learn how to trade each of the 3 modes separately or go to cash during the modes you don't like... which is what I've done. I'm not interested in this neutral, choppy, go nowhere mode that we are in now. I'm waiting on a long or short setup, and it looks like I'm not going to get one until after this bankster party is over with. Best of luck today and God Bless.
Today is day three with the futures still unable to get through the falling yellow trendline. This is NOT good for the bullish case as this is clearly too much time for a wave 4 down... if that's what it is? I was thinking we are in a C wave up and the rally up on Friday and into Monday was a wave 3 up inside that C, which then should have be followed by a small wave 4 down and then 5 up to make a higher high then the prior double top levels.
But "time" is the enemy here. You can't take too much time to carve out a wave 4 or else it's not the correct wave count. The late day move down was probably the wave 4, which suggests the move up this morning is likely a wave 5 up. But that overhead resistance needs to be pierced through if the bulls want to get a squeeze going on the bears. Otherwise the bears are going to take this pig of a market back down again.
There's now negative divergence on this 60 minute chart and the 4 hour chart (not shown) is still very overbought and looks ready to collapse. Bottom line here is that I believe we are about to see the last move up today before a drop starts toward that rising purple trendline at the very minimum. Also I see what looks like an "MA" pattern and we are at the top of the "A" right now.
This pattern basically measures the move up for the "M" part (some say the "A" part) and doubles it in value to get the suggested move down for the right side of the "A"... so from the 2775 low (the start of the "M") up to the 2940 top of the "M" you have about 165 points. If you calculate from there then you have 330 points down expected from the top of the "A", which is around 2930, so that's a drop to 2600 basically.
If you instead just use the point rally up for the left side of the "A" you have it starting at 2819 on 8/15 with again a top around 2930, so that's 111 points. Then double it and you get 222 points down, which from the 2930 top of that "A" you get 2708 as a target. Obviously by now you have probably figured out that the right side drop of the "A" in an "MA" pattern is a C wave down of some degree in Elliottwave terms.
Now I don't recall having any FP's down that low so I'll just keep those targets in mind should the bulls fail today to get through the falling yellow trendline of resistance. If they succeed and take out the two prior double top highs (the tops of the "M") then the "MA" pattern will no longer be valid. The bulls had certainly better step up to the plate today with their best hitter or they are going to be in serious trouble in the next inning of this ball game. That's all I have for today. If I take a short I'll post it in the free chatroom. God bless and have a great Wednesday.
The futures are set to open mostly flat this morning, which after such a strong rally up yesterday that's to be expected I guess. Yesterday near the close I wrote in the chatroom that I thought we are in a C wave up and that yesterday was the wave 3 up inside it. So I was expecting a 10-20 point pullback but I wasn't sure if we'd open down that amount or gap up first that amount and pullback to close the gap.
In either scenario I viewed the odds of shorting into the close as low so I stayed in cash. This morning with a flat open it looks like that was a wise decision after all as that 10-20 move for wave 4 might just be a sideways move that gives even less points. In Elliottwave (EW) it's common to have the wave 2's and 4's flip... meaning if the wave 2 produced a nice move (down or up) then the wave 4 would usually be a small sideways one.
Even-though I'm not a believe in EW being able to forecast the future moves it does still provide value when added with other methods of charting. Since the wave 2 down on 8/15 was a drop from 2871 to 2825 that's a nice 46 point move, so it stands to reason that the wave 4 will be a sideways one. Looking at the wide gap between the moving averages today (green and orange lines) they should merge again later today and decide the next move. The MACD's in the lower zone should work off the overbought conditions as well and either turn back up or collapse lower.
If this is a wave 4 of a C up then the wave 5 up should turn those MACD's up and keep the moving averages going up as well. But with the falling yellow trendline of resistance overhead on this 60 minute chart of the ES I suspect it will keep the market going nowhere today. This leaves the door open for the bulls to gap over that resistance on Wednesday to take out the two prior highs and squeeze out the shorts.
Failure here would be very bad for the bulls as triple tops are very important spots where important decisions are made. A failed breakout should lead to a retest of the 2775.75 low, which should fail as well. Why? Because we'd be in a large C wave down whereas the A down was from the 3029.50 high to that 2775.75 low, so a drop from here that C wave should at least equal the 253.75 points down the A wave did. If you start at around 2930 and take off 25375 points you have about 2676.25... and that's an ugly drop!
Do I think it's going to play out? No. I think the bulls will gap up over the falling blue trendline of resistance tomorrow and make a run up toward the upper trendline of the rising purple channel. That's somewhere around th 2980 zone... give or take 10 points. In conclusion I think we'll chop around today in a much smaller range then the 46 points the wave 2 did, so maybe 10 points or so?
I further think this (likely) wave 4 of C up will end by the close today and that we'll gap up over the yellow falling trendline tomorrow for the wave 5 up of C up. I doubt if I'll play the wave 5 up as while I think it's got higher odds of working then a large C down starting, I'd just rather wait for a higher odds trade. Have a blessed day.
The futures are up nicely this morning as the bulls woke back up last Friday. But there's a lot of overhead resistance waiting for them from a falling yellow trendline and horizontal orange trendline, as well as a rising blue trendline that starts at the December 26th, 2018 low and connects to the June 3rd, 2019 low. So I don't see it just blasting on up much higher today. In fact at the open the 60 minute chart will be quite overbought so at best the bulls hold this level all day into the close and then try to gap over this multiple resistance zone tomorrow. I really don't expect it to happen that easily for the bulls. Instead I suspect they will turn the ball back over to the bears tomorrow and we'll go back down again.
Just a guess of course, based on looking at the charts and all the resistance overhead. Plus the "possible" downside FP on the SPY from Friday as well as the "possible" upside FP's from last Wednesday that have been hit this premarket morning. One was for 292.46 and the other was 292.55, which are now fulfilled (premarket) with a current high of 292.65 around 7:37 am today. Of course it should be retested during normal trading hours as well, and I think it will be. So while I never know the timing of "when" any given FP or "possible" FP will be hit they are still something I watch closely whenever the market starts turning and going in that direction.
Since I feel the "possible" downside FP is real too, and the fact that the market will be overbought today with multiple overhead resistance levels layered above I have to think we will be going back down to this new "possible" FP from Friday at 3:51 pm of 284.71 at some point this week. If the Wednesday upside FP's took until today to get filled then that's 3 days out, so possibly we'll hit the downside FP in 3 days as well... or less? Hard too say about what the bulls will do up here this close to the two prior highs as triple tops aren't nearly as strong as double tops.
So it's possible I guess that they some how back down small today or tomorrow and then gap over the resistance zone Wednesday to run all the stops on the bears. Then the market rolls over and starts the drop toward the new FP into Thurs/Fri of this week. Or the bulls don't make it and just fail at the triple top today and start the down move tomorrow. Tough call for sure. Have a happy Monday.
Yesterday we saw what could have been called a wave 4 up and 5 down of C down, which was the large 800 point drop on the DOW the previous day. While Elliottwave isn't something I use for trading as waves can subdivide forever, or truncate short, it is still useful to paid attention to I think. I can see a nice ABC move up from the 8/5 low to the 8/8 high, and the another ABC down into yesterdays low.
The A part was from 8/8 to the low on 8/13, then that super fast squeeze up out of nowhere for the B wave, and the C down started later the next day on 8/14. There's a small wave 1 down and 2 up on the 13th, but the 14th produced that wave 3 down of C down, which I think ended yesterday with the wave 4 up and 5 down. That suggests we had an ABC up from 8/5 to 8/8 for a larger A up. The an ABC down into yesterday low for a larger B down. Next (again, from an EW point of view) should be a larger C up into next week.
We are likely in just the first wave 1 up of that larger C up right now. And I think that wave 1 up is going to subdivide into 5 smaller waves, whereas we had the smaller 1 up and 2 down yesterday, and are currently in the smaller 3 up inside 1 up of larger C up this premarket morning. Of course this wave 1 up of larger C up could only have 3 smaller waves inside it, and not 5, so keep that in mind too.
I'm 50/50 on how many waves are going to make up this firs wave 1 up of larger C up. The C waves and wave 3's in most all the cases will subdivide into 5 smaller waves but I've seen A waves and wave 1's only subdivide into 3 waves sometimes. So it's possible that this wave 1 up will end sometime today after the open and only have 3 smaller waves inside it. If so, then we'll likely see a pullback into the close today for the wave 2 down of larger C up. This move down should NOT take out the low yesterday if this wave count is correct.
A lower high on the MACD's should happen too. Basically I'd like to see a higher low on the price which will look like an inverted head and shoulders pattern on a small scale. This would setup a wave 3 up inside a larger C up for Monday. This would fool a lot of people I think, so I wouldn't be shocked if it plays out this way. Overhead resistance is the falling light green trendline and the falling yellow trendline.
A nice squeeze up into that yellow trendline on Monday would make a triple top it looks like. It would make the wave 3 up of C up too, and maybe throughout the day on Monday we see a tiny wave 4 down and wave 5 back up into the close to complete the larger C up? It might also push into Tuesday before ending as maybe it will push through the yellow falling trendline and the triple top for just long enough to run the stops on all the shorts... then reverse back down?
Bottomline here is that this larger ABC up from the 8/5 lows (which is an even bigger wave B up as wave A down is the move from the 7/29 high to that 8/5 low) could end early next week. The next leg down should be a very large drop as it will be an extra large C wave down I believe. This is all based on EW of course but I can see how MACD's and Histogram bars are rolling over on a weekly and daily chart now to support this wave count.
Plus we are going into the scary fall months of the year where the market is historically weak anyway. If this plays out then keep in mind that the extra large A wave down from the 3029.50 top to the 2775.75 low was 253.75 points, and therefore the C down will be at least that amount, or more. Have a great weekend.
The market is getting wilder and wilder it seems as moves up and day are crazy, swinging from 500 points up to 800 points down in just the last 2 days. Something is certainly not right behind the scenes. I'm not sure what to think at this point. Afterhours the market fell a little more but has since bounced back up as I write this update. So it's looking a bottom of some kind might happen today. But I don't think "the bottom" is in yet as I suspect the 277.37 afterhours low from 8/5 on the SPY will be tested at some point in the near future.
So any bounces here, no matter how fast and scary, is likely to be sold again. As far as today, I don't have any forecasts for where the market might go. There are two "possible" FP's at 292.55 and 292.46, which the first one is from the premarket session yesterday and the second one is from afterhours yesterday. Both look like late fills to me from the prior day, so I'm not too much into believing they are real, but the market does tend to revisit prior levels, so a rally back up to that level in the coming days would not shock me. Good Luck as always.
WOW! Up 400-500 points on the DOW yesterday and now this morning we are back down 400 points... insane swings. But, when you take away the numbers and just look at the movement it's still a choppy sideways market from the August 9th low. On one hand you could say that the rise up from that low and sideways large moves up and down are making a bull flag, and on the other hand you could say that from the 7/29 high down to the 8/9 low that's the flag pole for a bear flag and the wild swings up and down are the flag, which looks like a rising channel or pennant flag.
Regardless of how you see it the bulls and bears are fighting hard in this wide zone for control of the next large move. I personally think it will be a large down move starting next week some time, but I was also hoping the bulls would rally up and put in a new all time high first to squeeze out the bears. However, it's possible that these wild swings up and down are doing just that... meaning squeezing the bears out and trapping bulls as well. I've been sitting on the sidelines here as these moves are just too hard to predict in advance for me and I don't want trapped on the wrong side.
So cash is the best option until next week when some clearer pattern appears. For today I'm speechless. I know I said on Monday that we should be in a choppy market this week but I honestly never thought we'd see swings so wide. But I guess that's normal before a large move happens. All I can say is that after this battle is won by the bulls or the bears the next large move should be a very scary one. Nothing else I can say here so have a great day and God bless.
Pretty deep down day yesterday but the moves these recent days seem to be large every day. I'm still not looking for a breakdown of the 8/5 recent low, or a breakout to new all time highs anytime this week. Next week though is a different story. Most other are looking for top of some kind early next week to take a short at for a move down to test that 8/5 low but so far that rally up has yet to start.
I'm still 50/50 on whether we make a new all time high on the coming rally or just a lower high. And while there's no guarantee that we'll even get the rally (we could have already seen the bounce high?) I don't see a high odds trade right now to play on either side. I'm not much of a day trader as you know. I prefer to wait until I get a trend move that will last for several days to even weeks.
So I miss a lot of moves... and I missed the drop yesterday. Friday just didn't show its' hand to me on where the market was going on Monday. But that's life in this tough world of trading. I could take more risks but I've found that when I have in the pass I seem to have a knack for shorting the bottom or buying the top... LOL.
Anyway, I (again) don't see much for today. There's no clear direction to me. It looks more bearish then bullish but it's also getting short term oversold and can turn back up at anytime. I felt the same way yesterday but the turn back up never came, which was why I never went long either as "feeling" one way isn't a good recipe for trading. I wait until I get more evidence that gives me a clean signal to go long or short. I'd take either trade, up or down.
I'm a bear at heart but money is money and if I get a strong buy signal in the next few days then I'll go long without hesitation. I suspect we are near one but it's not formed yet. Positive divergence needs to form and I'd like to see some kind of wave 1 up and wave 2 down that holds above the start of the wave 1 up... aka, a higher low or double bottom. I'm thinking we could see something setup by this Thursday or Friday but until it does I'm on the sidelines waiting for a strong opportunity. Have a great day and be sure to watch Oscar's video here as he covers the long term picture.
The futures are down this morning but this is the monthly options expiration week, so I don't expect it to start the next big leg down. Most likely we'll see a choppy week between lower support and upper resistance. Generally this is a bullish week but there's been a lot of damage to the bulls on the daily and weekly charts so expecting a new all time high to happen is probably just wishful thinking by the bulls.
But the bears are awake now and seem to be shorting every bounce, which limits the down moves of course as SkyNet rarely drops the market hard and deep with the bears short. Therefore some choppy action to put them back to sleep, or at least get them to stop shorting is more likely the plan. The week following this week is where it should get interesting for the bears as another leg down is very likely still coming.
Over the weekend I watched some videos that talked about Trumps plan for the future, which are centered around two main things. One is to get rid of the Fed and two is to back the US Dollar by Gold again. The last president to attempt to do that was Kennedy and before that it was Lincoln. Kennedy had lined up dozens of other countries to support the new Gold backed dollar, which briefly happened in the early 1960's before they killed him. When I say "they" I of course mean the "Deep State", "Cabal", "Illuminati", or just simply put... the Elite satanists that rule the world. Same thing with Lincoln as he to was killed by the same people.
So I highly respect Trump for trying to do the same thing as it will free the world from the financial enslavement the banksters have us all in right now. A new gold backed dollar before the end of 2020 is his plan some insiders say. If so, then gold and silver will rising through the roof in value going into this period I'd think. As for the stock market I still am unsure? Mainly because I don't know who's going to win and while I'd love to see Trump be the victor the past two presidents that tried the same move failed and lost their lives as well.
But if he does get it done then this new transfer of wealth from the banksters back to the public, which can then create new jobs to get the economy going, should cause the stock market to do very well too. Right now that's hard to believe as it's so overbought on a monthly and yearly chart, but it is possible to see a strong bull market start if Trump wins with his plans, so don't rule that out. If he fails then yeah, I'd say we'll go into a recession and/or depression as the satanists will sure stage an epic stock market crash again, just like they did in 1929.
They are losing control right now as the alternative media is exposing them for every crime under the sun from assassinations to pedophilia to money laundering and much more. The people are feed up with it for the most part, but some are still to brainwashed to understand the big picture. Anyway, this all leads me to believe we are still going to see some nasty moves down starting around the last week of August, which are normal really as the fall months of the year are typically weak anyway. But I don't (currently) see a massive crash.
The "possible" FP I have from 1/7/2019 only points to a "higher low" on the SPY then the December 2018 low. So if that's a real FP and we hit that target in either September or October I still think there will be time to rally up by the end of the year and make new all time high. Meaning I don't think we are going to see the possible upside FP on IWM hit this month. The bears are putting too much pressure on the bulls right now to allow a new all time to be achieved I think. So let's have some fun with the bears in the coming months and then become bulls again in December for the rally up to that IWM target is what I'm thinking.
This week I might not do much but I'll certainly be looking for that ideal short to setup. Next week the VIX contract expires on Wednesday the 21st, so I have to think this market is going to be choppy until the new contract starts as the insiders will sure want the current contract to expire with the VIX under a certain level so they can keep all the premium they sold via naked calls... meaning it's very likely the market is going to be manipulated until expiration. That's another reason I'm looking for some choppy action. Have a great Monday.
The futures are down some this morning but I guess that's to be expected after such a large rally yesterday. I was able to get out of my longs and pretty much breakeven for the week. It wasn't easy but patience paid off as we did indeed rally up to that possible FP of 292.74, which was about where the market stalled at and went mostly sideways the rest of the day. Now everyone is looking for another large drop to happen as the market has retraced about half the down move from the last week.
But I don't feel that way. Instead I think we are off to make new all time highs or at least challenge them into next week and the week after. August is a month that will put in tops for the year many times... especially when you have such a strong a powerful rally up from a low in the fall of the prior year. Which as you all know we have been rallying basically since the December 26th, 2018 low with only a few nice pullbacks along the way. So tend to think we still have another move up to a new high coming before this entire 9 month rally ends.
The move down to follow should be one very nasty drop, but first the newly short bears have to be put back to sleep, and that requires a move up to a higher high in my humble opinion. I'll end here and keep this update short. Tomorrow I turn 55 as I was born in the month of Leo and the year of the Dragon... hence the name of my site. I'm very thankful to be in good health and live in America. Have a great weekend. And remember that God loves you and he loves everyone (well, maybe not the deep state pedophiles... LOL).
What a nice recovery by the bulls yesterday as the bears dropped it hard early yesterday morning. This morning the bulls managed to hold the futures about flat to slightly up as I write this premarket report. Today is the best chance for the bulls to take this up if they choose to do so. But today might end up just being a pause day where the bulls go sideways to gather more strength for a move higher tomorrow.
As I type this update the futures are gaining more so we'll see if the bulls can keep this momentum going or not. There's a possible FP from Monday showing a 292.74 high on the SPY around 4:55 pm, but it might also be a late fill from the prior days close as the SPY ended last Friday at 292.62... pretty close to the FP level. So we'll just keep that level in mind should the bulls put on a nice rally up today. Wave count wise we could be starting a wave 3 up today with Tuesdays rally up being wave 1 and Wednesdays early drop being wave 2... suggesting wave 3 started the low yesterday and is continuing into this morning.
The other count is that the entire drop from the high a week ago (which was a nice ABC down) ended just the wave 3 inside the C down on Tuesday, then wave 4 up of C down into Wednesday, where wave 5 down double bottomed (SPY/SPX, not futures) later that morning and started just a wave 1 up from that low into this morning. That then leaves a wave 2 down that might come today or tomorrow and then wave 3 up Friday or next Monday.
I don't see any bearish counts right now as we've had a nice ABC down... with or without the possible subdivision for a wave 4 and 5 inside that C down. The bottom line here is that we should start moving up over the next few days to carve out a 5 wave up pattern, or worst case would be an ABC move up... which would (should) only make a lower high before another down move happens again. That's all I have for today. Good luck trading and God Bless.
Markets are down this morning, after a nice strong bounce yesterday. I don't think the bulls are done yet on this move up but there's a lot of resistance overhead so it might be a grind fest higher and not your typical gap up and squeeze move. So today might be a choppy sideways day with some downside and some upside but considering the depth of the recent drop over the past several days I don't see another big plunge coming anytime soon.
Bulls are fighters as we all know and at worst will just hold the market in place long enough for charts to become bullish again and then make a run higher. On a wave count we might have gotten a wave 1 up yesterday of some degree and will have a wave 2 down or sideways today... which leaves 3 up for tomorrow or Friday I guess. Just speculation at this point based on how fast and far the recent drop went, thus getting the market quite oversold on the short term. Bounces are a normal part of any drop as we all know, so we shouldn't be shocked if we retrace half the move down (or more) in the coming days. Not much else to add here so I'll just keep this update short and end it here. Have a great Wednesday.
The market took another dive after-hours yesterday with the DOW being down as much as 400 points, but this morning we see a reversal with it now up over 200 points. I'd say we have the makings of a 2-3 rally starting now. The depth of this move down took me by surprise as the FP on the SPY of 291.22, which was put out back in early July, was hit and slightly pierced at first but failed to produce a turn in the market like so many prior FP's have done.
It makes me wonder if those that control the stock market still have full control or not? For years I've been tracking these FP's and while I never know the "when" part on them being fulfilled, they are very accurate when they finally do get hit. I don't mean the small intraday FP's as many of them are just late fills on orders that some how got lost and never completed that trading day. You'll see that most of them point to the price level where the market opened that day, or closed the previous day. Real FP's are targets way away from any prior days levels, and sometimes take months to hit.
If this becomes the norm then it will prove without a doubt to me that Trump is not part of their plan, which I've never thought he was anyway. The elite satanists clearly hate him as they continue to attack him every chance they get. The create false flag events and blame it on Trump. So maybe the timing of him talking about more tariffs on China wasn't staged like all the other big news releases have been in the past?
Which would explain why the FP level failed to hold and produce a turn back up like all the prior FP's have done so well. It makes me wonder if the IWM upside FP is going to actually get fulfilled and put in the all time for this year? Of course I won't know until it's hit or not, and time-wise I think we have a month at the most for it to hit. The rally in the futures right now is likely the start of the last rally up in the market for this year.
Whether it makes a new all time high or not is unknown. I tend to think it must make one to put in negative divergences on the daily and weekly chart, and then a recession is likely to start. Only time will tell. I'm still long (underwater) and will hold until Friday to see if we get a strong rally up or not. I tend to think we'll see 2-3 days of a move up here and then another pullback. Will it be small and then back up, or another very large one is again... unknown. Happy Turnaround Tuesday.
Futures down big this morning, which wasn't something I was expecting. I have some longs that are going to be toast from the looks of things right now. There's a possible early morning FP around 8am today at 292.62, but that's really about where the close was on Friday so it's likely just a late fill and not a real FP. However, it's worth keeping in mind should we rally any today or tomorrow as it will be a point of interest for sure.
We are into another support zone area here in this 2885 level from a rising trendline that connects the December lows last year to the June lows of this year. If there's ever a reason to bounce here then that trendline would be it. There's also the even number level around 26,000 on the DOW and we are very close to that level as well this morning. Failure here is really bad for the bulls would suggest that the bull market rally is over.
Pierces of that trendline are fine but it needs to recapture it asap. The supports there are broken on a smaller scale (like the 2900 level) suggest a bull trend is still in place, but if this rising trendline breaks (and holds) then that tells me that a more serious move down is coming soon. That doesn't mean we can't rally some this week as of course there's always bounces in any down move. But serious damage would be done on a close below that rising trendline, as it would suggest the high has been put in for the year. So it's time to be more cautious on expecting the typical bounces to happen all the time like they did in the past many months. Let the bulls prove themselves here.
Since I'm stuck in some longs I'll just have to wait this out to see if we get any bounce or not? The goal now is to get out with less of a loss as a breakeven isn't looking good. I'm just glad I got the big win on the sell last week as otherwise this underwater long would have me sweating tears. Not much else to say this morning as this down move took me by surprise so I'll have to just wait and watch until something bullish appears. Have a great Monday.
Double WOW this morning as yesterday produced not only a strong squeeze up but another even larger drop. What's next I wonder? From a technical point of view the market did a nice ABC move down from the top, so I'd tend to think we'll see some sideways action or small upside for a few days before another large drop happens. It's really going to get tricky from here on out. I was lucky yesterday (with God's help) as I caught the top of the rally and shorted it.
I got out to early but I'm still super happy as I hit a homerun (money-wise) versus most days where I struggle to get a single (small profit) or a even a walk (breakeven) like last week. But it's always better then a strike out (losing money). So now I'm just going to watch and wait to see what happens today. My thinking is that if they rally up (even small) and close green they'll be another drop on Monday.
But if they stay down most of the day and close red I'd tend to think they are just finishing up yesterdays drop and any rally day will be put off until sometime next week, possibly Monday? Like I said, it's going to get tricky from here on out as the bears are clearly awake now and SkyNet hates to see them make money. It will do whatever "shake and bake" moves (ups and downs) it needs for as many days as it needs to make the bears give up and the bulls throw in the towel too. Both sides will likely want to quit and go to cash before the next large move can start I believe. Who knows, maybe it's a large up move again? Since the down move is being blamed on a Trump tweet who's to say he doesn't do another one, but one that is positive for the market to cause a sharp rally.
With such a powerful tool at ones hand (Twitter I mean) he's advisors can tell him what to say and "when" to say it so as to get the market to move in whichever direction they want. So let's be open-minded here for both sides as another large drop has about equal odds as a large rally in my opinion. My gut tells me it won't be easy going forward. So I'm not going to even try to tell you where we are in the wave count, or what's coming next, as I don't know yet. But instead I'll just tell you what I'm looking for... and that's whether the DOW/SPX closes green or red today, and whether there is a rally up or not.
If a decent bounce of 38.2% to 50% happens (from the high yesterday to the low this morning), and we close green, then I'd be a bear into Monday. If we go sideways with little strength and close red I'd expect a rally of some degree to happen on Monday. And if we go sideways with little strength and close green (DOW/SPX) I'd be mixed on Monday... aka, 50/50 odds on up or down. In conclusion, I'd only play a short if we rallied up decently and closed green. Otherwise I'd stand pat and wait until Monday. Have a great weekend.
P.S. We do have a FP on the SPY of 291.22, so let's watch that level on the downside to see if it's hit as that could be the bottom of this move before a decent rally starts.
P.S.S. You remember last year at the low around Christmas Trump tweeted that the stock market looks like a great buy here, and up it went right afterwards. Well, does the words "BIG RALLY" and "Our Country is doing GREAT!" have any hidden message in them?
BIG RALLY tonight in Cincinnati, Ohio. See you there! P.S. Our Country is doing GREAT!
Keep in mind that I do not think the all time high for this year is "put in" yet, so let's again NOT be super bearish, or bullish at this current time. Just be open to both another large drop as possible or another large rally.
