Yesterday we saw what could have been called a wave 4 up and 5 down of C down, which was the large 800 point drop on the DOW the previous day. While Elliottwave isn't something I use for trading as waves can subdivide forever, or truncate short, it is still useful to paid attention to I think. I can see a nice ABC move up from the 8/5 low to the 8/8 high, and the another ABC down into yesterdays low.

The A part was from 8/8 to the low on 8/13, then that super fast squeeze up out of nowhere for the B wave, and the C down started later the next day on 8/14. There's a small wave 1 down and 2 up on the 13th, but the 14th produced that wave 3 down of C down, which I think ended yesterday with the wave 4 up and 5 down. That suggests we had an ABC up from 8/5 to 8/8 for a larger A up. The an ABC down into yesterday low for a larger B down. Next (again, from an EW point of view) should be a larger C up into next week.

We are likely in just the first wave 1 up of that larger C up right now. And I think that wave 1 up is going to subdivide into 5 smaller waves, whereas we had the smaller 1 up and 2 down yesterday, and are currently in the smaller 3 up inside 1 up of larger C up this premarket morning. Of course this wave 1 up of larger C up could only have 3 smaller waves inside it, and not 5, so keep that in mind too.

I'm 50/50 on how many waves are going to make up this firs wave 1 up of larger C up. The C waves and wave 3's in most all the cases will subdivide into 5 smaller waves but I've seen A waves and wave 1's only subdivide into 3 waves sometimes. So it's possible that this wave 1 up will end sometime today after the open and only have 3 smaller waves inside it. If so, then we'll likely see a pullback into the close today for the wave 2 down of larger C up. This move down should NOT take out the low yesterday if this wave count is correct.

A lower high on the MACD's should happen too. Basically I'd like to see a higher low on the price which will look like an inverted head and shoulders pattern on a small scale. This would setup a wave 3 up inside a larger C up for Monday. This would fool a lot of people I think, so I wouldn't be shocked if it plays out this way. Overhead resistance is the falling light green trendline and the falling yellow trendline.

A nice squeeze up into that yellow trendline on Monday would make a triple top it looks like. It would make the wave 3 up of C up too, and maybe throughout the day on Monday we see a tiny wave 4 down and wave 5 back up into the close to complete the larger C up? It might also push into Tuesday before ending as maybe it will push through the yellow falling trendline and the triple top for just long enough to run the stops on all the shorts... then reverse back down?

Bottomline here is that this larger ABC up from the 8/5 lows (which is an even bigger wave B up as wave A down is the move from the 7/29 high to that 8/5 low) could end early next week. The next leg down should be a very large drop as it will be an extra large C wave down I believe. This is all based on EW of course but I can see how MACD's and Histogram bars are rolling over on a weekly and daily chart now to support this wave count.

Plus we are going into the scary fall months of the year where the market is historically weak anyway. If this plays out then keep in mind that the extra large A wave down from the 3029.50 top to the 2775.75 low was 253.75 points, and therefore the C down will be at least that amount, or more. Have a great weekend.

WOW! Up 400-500 points on the DOW yesterday and now this morning we are back down 400 points... insane swings. But, when you take away the numbers and just look at the movement it's still a choppy sideways market from the August 9th low. On one hand you could say that the rise up from that low and sideways large moves up and down are making a bull flag, and on the other hand you could say that from the 7/29 high down to the 8/9 low that's the flag pole for a bear flag and the wild swings up and down are the flag, which looks like a rising channel or pennant flag.

Regardless of how you see it the bulls and bears are fighting hard in this wide zone for control of the next large move. I personally think it will be a large down move starting next week some time, but I was also hoping the bulls would rally up and put in a new all time high first to squeeze out the bears. However, it's possible that these wild swings up and down are doing just that... meaning squeezing the bears out and trapping bulls as well. I've been sitting on the sidelines here as these moves are just too hard to predict in advance for me and I don't want trapped on the wrong side.

So cash is the best option until next week when some clearer pattern appears. For today I'm speechless. I know I said on Monday that we should be in a choppy market this week but I honestly never thought we'd see swings so wide. But I guess that's normal before a large move happens. All I can say is that after this battle is won by the bulls or the bears the next large move should be a very scary one. Nothing else I can say here so have a great day and God bless.

Pretty deep down day yesterday but the moves these recent days seem to be large every day. I'm still not looking for a breakdown of the 8/5 recent low, or a breakout to new all time highs anytime this week. Next week though is a different story. Most other are looking for top of some kind early next week to take a short at for a move down to test that 8/5 low but so far that rally up has yet to start.

I'm still 50/50 on whether we make a new all time high on the coming rally or just a lower high. And while there's no guarantee that we'll even get the rally (we could have already seen the bounce high?) I don't see a high odds trade right now to play on either side. I'm not much of a day trader as you know. I prefer to wait until I get a trend move that will last for several days to even weeks.

So I miss a lot of moves... and I missed the drop yesterday. Friday just didn't show its' hand to me on where the market was going on Monday. But that's life in this tough world of trading. I could take more risks but I've found that when I have in the pass I seem to have a knack for shorting the bottom or buying the top... LOL.

Anyway, I (again) don't see much for today. There's no clear direction to me. It looks more bearish then bullish but it's also getting short term oversold and can turn back up at anytime. I felt the same way yesterday but the turn back up never came, which was why I never went long either as "feeling" one way isn't a good recipe for trading. I wait until I get more evidence that gives me a clean signal to go long or short. I'd take either trade, up or down.

I'm a bear at heart but money is money and if I get a strong buy signal in the next few days then I'll go long without hesitation. I suspect we are near one but it's not formed yet. Positive divergence needs to form and I'd like to see some kind of wave 1 up and wave 2 down that holds above the start of the wave 1 up... aka, a higher low or double bottom. I'm thinking we could see something setup by this Thursday or Friday but until it does I'm on the sidelines waiting for a strong opportunity. Have a great day and be sure to watch Oscar's video here as he covers the long term picture.

The futures are down some this morning but I guess that's to be expected after such a large rally yesterday. I was able to get out of my longs and pretty much breakeven for the week. It wasn't easy but patience paid off as we did indeed rally up to that possible FP of 292.74, which was about where the market stalled at and went mostly sideways the rest of the day. Now everyone is looking for another large drop to happen as the market has retraced about half the down move from the last week.

But I don't feel that way. Instead I think we are off to make new all time highs or at least challenge them into next week and the week after. August is a month that will put in tops for the year many times... especially when you have such a strong a powerful rally up from a low in the fall of the prior year. Which as you all know we have been rallying basically since the December 26th, 2018 low with only a few nice pullbacks along the way. So tend to think we still have another move up to a new high coming before this entire 9 month rally ends.

The move down to follow should be one very nasty drop, but first the newly short bears have to be put back to sleep, and that requires a move up to a higher high in my humble opinion. I'll end here and keep this update short. Tomorrow I turn 55 as I was born in the month of Leo and the year of the Dragon... hence the name of my site. I'm very thankful to be in good health and live in America. Have a great weekend. And remember that God loves you and he loves everyone (well, maybe not the deep state pedophiles... LOL).

What a nice recovery by the bulls yesterday as the bears dropped it hard early yesterday morning. This morning the bulls managed to hold the futures about flat to slightly up as I write this premarket report. Today is the best chance for the bulls to take this up if they choose to do so. But today might end up just being a pause day where the bulls go sideways to gather more strength for a move higher tomorrow.

As I type this update the futures are gaining more so we'll see if the bulls can keep this momentum going or not. There's a possible FP from Monday showing a 292.74 high on the SPY around 4:55 pm, but it might also be a late fill from the prior days close as the SPY ended last Friday at 292.62... pretty close to the FP level. So we'll just keep that level in mind should the bulls put on a nice rally up today. Wave count wise we could be starting a wave 3 up today with Tuesdays rally up being wave 1 and Wednesdays early drop being wave 2... suggesting wave 3 started the low yesterday and is continuing into this morning.

The other count is that the entire drop from the high a week ago (which was a nice ABC down) ended just the wave 3 inside the C down on Tuesday, then wave 4 up of C down into Wednesday, where wave 5 down double bottomed (SPY/SPX, not futures) later that morning and started just a wave 1 up from that low into this morning. That then leaves a wave 2 down that might come today or tomorrow and then wave 3 up Friday or next Monday.

I don't see any bearish counts right now as we've had a nice ABC down... with or without the possible subdivision for a wave 4 and 5 inside that C down. The bottom line here is that we should start moving up over the next few days to carve out a 5 wave up pattern, or worst case would be an ABC move up... which would (should) only make a lower high before another down move happens again. That's all I have for today. Good luck trading and God Bless.

Markets are down this morning, after a nice strong bounce yesterday. I don't think the bulls are done yet on this move up but there's a lot of resistance overhead so it might be a grind fest higher and not your typical gap up and squeeze move. So today might be a choppy sideways day with some downside and some upside but considering the depth of the recent drop over the past several days I don't see another big plunge coming anytime soon.

Bulls are fighters as we all know and at worst will just hold the market in place long enough for charts to become bullish again and then make a run higher. On a wave count we might have gotten a wave 1 up yesterday of some degree and will have a wave 2 down or sideways today... which leaves 3 up for tomorrow or Friday I guess. Just speculation at this point based on how fast and far the recent drop went, thus getting the market quite oversold on the short term. Bounces are a normal part of any drop as we all know, so we shouldn't be shocked if we retrace half the move down (or more) in the coming days. Not much else to add here so I'll just keep this update short and end it here. Have a great Wednesday.

The market took another dive after-hours yesterday with the DOW being down as much as 400 points, but this morning we see a reversal with it now up over 200 points. I'd say we have the makings of a 2-3 rally starting now. The depth of this move down took me by surprise as the FP on the SPY of 291.22, which was put out back in early July, was hit and slightly pierced at first but failed to produce a turn in the market like so many prior FP's have done.

It makes me wonder if those that control the stock market still have full control or not? For years I've been tracking these FP's and while I never know the "when" part on them being fulfilled, they are very accurate when they finally do get hit. I don't mean the small intraday FP's as many of them are just late fills on orders that some how got lost and never completed that trading day. You'll see that most of them point to the price level where the market opened that day, or closed the previous day. Real FP's are targets way away from any prior days levels, and sometimes take months to hit.

If this becomes the norm then it will prove without a doubt to me that Trump is not part of their plan, which I've never thought he was anyway. The elite satanists clearly hate him as they continue to attack him every chance they get. The create false flag events and blame it on Trump. So maybe the timing of him talking about more tariffs on China wasn't staged like all the other big news releases have been in the past?

Which would explain why the FP level failed to hold and produce a turn back up like all the prior FP's have done so well. It makes me wonder if the IWM upside FP is going to actually get fulfilled and put in the all time for this year? Of course I won't know until it's hit or not, and time-wise I think we have a month at the most for it to hit. The rally in the futures right now is likely the start of the last rally up in the market for this year.

Whether it makes a new all time high or not is unknown. I tend to think it must make one to put in negative divergences on the daily and weekly chart, and then a recession is likely to start. Only time will tell. I'm still long (underwater) and will hold until Friday to see if we get a strong rally up or not. I tend to think we'll see 2-3 days of a move up here and then another pullback. Will it be small and then back up, or another very large one is again... unknown. Happy Turnaround Tuesday.

Futures down big this morning, which wasn't something I was expecting. I have some longs that are going to be toast from the looks of things right now. There's a possible early morning FP around 8am today at 292.62, but that's really about where the close was on Friday so it's likely just a late fill and not a real FP. However, it's worth keeping in mind should we rally any today or tomorrow as it will be a point of interest for sure.

We are into another support zone area here in this 2885 level from a rising trendline that connects the December lows last year to the June lows of this year.  If there's ever a reason to bounce here then that trendline would be it.  There's also the even number level around 26,000 on the DOW and we are very close to that level as well this morning.  Failure here is really bad for the bulls would suggest that the bull market rally is over.

Pierces of that trendline are fine but it needs to recapture it asap.  The supports there are broken on a smaller scale (like the 2900 level) suggest a bull trend is still in place, but if this rising trendline breaks (and holds) then that tells me that a more serious move down is coming soon. That doesn't mean we can't rally some this week as of course there's always bounces in any down move. But serious damage would be done on a close below that rising trendline, as it would suggest the high has been put in for the year.  So it's time to be more cautious on expecting the typical bounces to happen all the time like they did in the past many months.  Let the bulls prove themselves here.

Since I'm stuck in some longs I'll just have to wait this out to see if we get any bounce or not? The goal now is to get out with less of a loss as a breakeven isn't looking good. I'm just glad I got the big win on the sell last week as otherwise this underwater long would have me sweating tears. Not much else to say this morning as this down move took me by surprise so I'll have to just wait and watch until something bullish appears. Have a great Monday.

Here's Oscar talking about the same trendline...

WOW! What a nice drop yesterday. I was quite surprised actually but happy that I never took any positions... especially not a long. I was kinda giving up on the bear case to some degree and lending more bullish then bearish, but not enough to put a bullish trade on... thank goodness. Ok, so what's next? Well, if that move down yesterday was some kind of wave A then we should be doing a wave B today, and possibly into tomorrow as well?

When I look back at other similar periods what I notice is that the B wave up usually puts in a green closing candle on its last day. So if we chop around today and close slightly red I'd tend to think that the B up is subdividing and that we only got the small a up and small b down out of the way, leaving the small c up to end the B wave for tomorrow. Then the C down would follow starting on Monday. But if they close today green I'd lend more toward the B up ending today and the C down tomorrow.

I'll be looking at the intraday movement to see if it subdivides into 3 smaller waves or not. One could argue that the intraday low yesterday was the end of the A down and the B up started with that rally up into around 3:30 before the last drop into the close. If that's the B wave then clearly it is subdividing and that first reaction bounce back up from the 3:00 pm low was the small a up, then the small b down into the close and today we are making the small c up... which could truncate short of the small a top at 2998.75, and that would be perfect in my opinion for the C down to start tomorrow.

So, from around 3020 down to 2958 we have 62 points. If the B up ends today around 3000 then the C down so go at least 62 points, which is 2938. But most C waves are larger then the A wave. Like 1.618% up to 2.618%, so if it's just 1.618% then that is about 100 points lower, and if 2.618% that's 162 points lower. To put is simply if we close today around 3000 (or put in an intraday high there) then we should drop 62 points, minimum, 100 points normally, or 162 points worst case.

I will be watching closely as I kinda think we are in a small c up of the B up and it needs to get close to the prior bounce high of 2998.75 for me to feel like the small c up is finished, which ends the B up and sets up the C down to start on Friday. If we chop around all day and don't do that rally up then again, it's likely that the small c up isn't finished and that it could extend into Friday. This could be a serious turning point the DOW never did make a new all time high like all the other indexes.

I'm still thinking we'll hit Oscar Carboni's upside target of 28,500-29,000 before the year ends so the bulls had better keep this coming C down to a minimum so they can rally back up for that target area. On the DOW the 26,000 area would probably be about equal to the 2900 zone on the SPX, which is the normal 1.618% ratio of A to C. It should be an interesting day for sure. I'll be looking for the 3000 area to be touched (or very close) but no close over it. On the DOW I'll be looking for the 27,000 level to hold the bulls back and become resistance just like 3000 on the SPX. Give me a "close" but not too close touch of those today, and a green close, and I'm a bear into Friday looking for that C down to start. Have a great day.

Futures are basically flat this Monday morning but if you look closer they seem to big in a rising wedge pattern now with a purple trendline of resistance overhead and orange trendline of support below. Since the market is still in a "waiting" mode for the FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday we might not see much movement today as this rising wedge doesn't come to a peak until tomorrow from the looks of it. I'd love to see it breakdown today but with the meeting still two days away I don't think there will be much action or volume to cause a breakdown, or breakout.

But if we stay in this rising wedge all day long (seems likely) the odds for a breakdown or breakout are pretty strong for Tuesday morning. I may look to take a trade going into Tuesday and will post it in the chatroom by the close today if I see this as likely to happen. As for the rest of this week I do think we'll see a "sell the news" event after the FOMC as clearly we've been going up in front of it (aka... "buy the rumor"). I'll get this update short as I don't see much else happening today. Have a great Monday.

It's Friday... Yippee! The weekend is almost here. I loved the weekend as a young man in my early 20's but now in my 50's all the weekend has for me is work around the house and property, so it's not that exciting anymore. Cutting grass on my riding lawn mover though is fun, but the weed eating sure does a number on my legs. I should wear long pants but it's too hot out so I get slapped with grass blades a lot.

Anyway, for today we see the futures up a little after a nice move down yesterday. Wish I would have seen that one coming but I didn't. Odds are still good for higher prices but I get the feeling we are in a pullback mode first, and yesterdays move down was just an A wave. If today's rally up closes near the high for the day, and still stays under the recent all time high, I'd have to think it was a B wave up of some degree. And that further suggests a C wave down on Monday to take out the lows from yesterday. Just speculation at this point but that always the case in the stock market.

I'll probably risk a small short over the weekend if this move up happens today. There's certainly no guarantee of it dropping in a C wave on Monday as the B up could continue that day and drop in the C wave on Tuesday. Or the B could take out the all time high and end up not being a B wave after all and some wave 5 up or something? Hence the reason I'll do a small short as it's just a guess. But if we do see a B up today and C down on Monday then that entire move would likely be a wave 4 down of some degree and a strong buy signal will trigger at the close for a wave 5 up to start.

That is something I'll be heavy long on if it happens. It will have very strong odds of a long lasting rally to start back up after the closing low on Monday, and it might be the rally that takes us up to the final target highs I have for this year going into August and September (mentioned on yesterdays post). A blow off top is very likely as there are many reasons to believe a recession is coming, like this final high is one that will last for a long time I think. We'll cross that road when we get there I guess. Have a great weekend and you men try to enjoy the chores you do around your house this Saturday and Sunday.

Yesterday I mentioned the FP on Apple but I forgot that it was already hit and fulfilled the first week of May, so just ignore it as it's done now. The market went up nicely yesterday as the grind higher continues. I still don't see any high odds setups, so I'm sitting in cash right now looking for something to show up. I can't go long up this high and I can't short a dull market either. We need to see some kind of volatility before any high odds setup can form. There's just nothing there yet so I continue to wait. On another note IWM went up nicely yesterday and we have a FP on it at 164.34, which I think will also mark the all time high. When will it? I don't know? Maybe in another month or less?

One thing seems certain though, this market doesn't look to be in any hurry as the dog days of summer grind on. Maybe that changes next week after the FOMC meeting though as there's usually some movement up and down around it. My thinking is that if the Fed's want the market to continue higher after the meeting they'd want to top out soon, like by this Friday, and pullback some going into the meeting so the could reset overbought charts and then go back up afterwards. A lot of good traders are still looking for 3050-3100 as a high and the bulls are certainly getting closer now.

I don't know what the high will be and I really don't care. I'm more focused on getting a high odds trade to form at whatever level it wants to do so at. For a target though I'll just watch IWM for the hit of the FP and then see where the SPX/ES as at, which if you do some calculation on the current price of IWM and the FP level and then transfer over the same percentage of move up need to the ES Futures you'd come up with 3155.50 and 28,423.58 on the DOW... but keep in mind that they don't always move together, so that's not a true and accurate target. Anyway, for today I have no opinion. I don't see any reason to get long or to get short. Have a great day.

P.S.  Strange how that DOW top is pretty close to Oscar Carboni's year end projection of 28,500-29,000.

The futures are down a little this morning but on this chart of the ES one could argue that they broke-through a falling trendline of resistance yesterday and this morning they are back-testing it to make it support. There's still horizontal resistance overhead, both from last Fridays high where the market has double topped at, and from the all time high. But overall the bulls look to be in good shape to make another run up higher soon as all this sideways move is also consolidation.

While there's clearly a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up as well, (which is bearish), there's still nothing to prevent a breakout higher either. It's truly unknown at this point. I'd say I'm 50/50 on what's coming next. Markets are up into overbought status but overbought can become more overbought, so that's not a good enough reason to blindly go short. I was really hoping for a sell to setup by Thursday or Friday but so far I'm not seeing it.

The only hope the bears have is a "possible" FP on Apple that is within a point or so of being hit as of the close yesterday. So if that FP is real and it gets hit then possibly it will mark the high for the overall market to? I say that only because it makes up such a large part of the Nasdaq stocks and if it tops and rolls over the Nasdaq will likely pullback to. I can't think of anything else to mention so I'll end this update here. Have a great day.

P.S. Mueller testifies today.

Well, the futures are up a little again today it seems. Very dull day yesterday and today might be the same? I guess you could call this the dull days of summer. There's a falling red trendline from the prior highs over the past several weeks, which should be resistance if the market gets up to that level today. I also see a "possible" FP that just came out this morning around 8am showing a low of 297.90, but that's also around the closing level yesterday. So it could just be a late fill and not a real FP, not sure? But resistance overhead is real with the falling trendline, so that should slow down the bulls today I believe.

I'm still not expecting a whole lot of action until we get closer to the FOMC meeting next week. So while a move down likely if we hit the falling red trendline of resistance today, but I wouldn't expect it to go and lower then the "possible" FP level. It's a nice intraday short trade... if it happens? I'm looking for multi-day move to setup so I'll probably just sit this possible trade out today. It's not a high odds one as we could just as easily hit the trendline and go sideways along it all day long and gap over it tomorrow.

My thoughts are still the same, which tell me that's there's no high odds trade available right now but that there should be one late this week. I don't know if it will be up or down but if it's down then I'd look for a bottom around the FOMC date next Wednesday. If we go up hard first then I'd look for a top around the FOMC. I'd love to catch them both if possible and I should be able to see them setup in advance. Right now it's about equal odds for a up, then down move or down, then up move. That's all I have for today, so happy trading.

The futures are up a little this morning but nothing huge. Today doesn't look too interesting as I don't see an further of a breakdown as the market seems to be trading in a range-bound sideways channel, nor do I see a huge rally up to make new all time highs. It's looking choppy today with an upward bias, but still in the 2970's to 3020's trading range. My guess is a slow rise upward throughout the day. Resistance will come in at the falling light green trendline, which it pointing to around 3000 today.

Support is the prior after-hours low around 2970. Later this week is where I think it will get interesting as we'll be getting closer to the all important FOMC meeting on July 30th/31st where forecasters think a 25 base point cut is almost certain and 50 has high odds. I'm thinking the insiders will start positioning in front of this meeting as they already know the outcome and where the market is headed to afterwards.

Everything looks too rosy to me and since we are up near all time highs I think whatever they do or say will cause a move down in the market. My thoughts are that we'll either see a breakout to new all time highs again late this week going into the meeting, where it will then dump hard afterwards... or we'll start down into the meeting first. If down first then the meeting could be a bottom as the Fed's surprise with something viewed good by the market.

I'm not sure what that could be but maybe it's enough to produce another short lived rally to that 3050-3100 area everyone seems to be looking for? Either way a move is very likely to happen prior to the meeting, and I'm think this Thursday or Friday we'll see it. We are very overbought now so if it's a move up then I'd say it will be a blow off top and after the meeting we'll see a multi-week (or multi-month) drop to much lower prices. If it's a move down first then I'd say we'll see just a multi-week rally into August, maybe September for the final high for this year... and then a recession start that will last a few years.

I'm leaning more toward this scenario as a nice move down into the meeting would lure in enough bears I think for that final rally up to 3100 or wherever in the next 2 months. The pullback should still be a nice one though, like a 100 SPX points or more I'd think, and then up to 3100-3200 or so. But if the bulls take the wrong path here and rally up into the meeting to top out say in the 3050's or so then look out below as I'd then be looking for 500-1000 SPX points down in the coming weeks and months.

I give that scenario low odds as I really think we'll be in rally mode up into September and not top out here in July or early August and then start a recession afterwards. Markets don't top in July, sometimes in August, but September and October are more common. Anyway, that's my outlook for coming week or two, and again, I'm leaning toward a move down starting late this week and going into the meeting... then back up afterwards. Have a great day.