Yesterday morning rally held all day and finally has rolled over this morning. It could drift down to that "possible" FP yesterday of 283.95 before bottoming and turning back up but I wouldn't try to trade it. It does look like a wave 2 down or B with yesterdays move up an A or wave 1. So at some point today I'd expect it to start turning back up for a C wave or wave 3. If it doesn't start today then it should do so tomorrow with a gap up. I have to think that the upper black trendline in the falling channel is going to be hit at some point soon. Today it's pointing to around 2880 or so, which is around the prior highs last Thursday and Friday. The bulls really need to start a big move up soon or else they will run out of time and the bears will take control again. I'll end here and keep this update short and sweet. Have a great day.
ES Morning Update May 21st 2019
Afterhour yesterday we had an upside FP on the SPY, which has been hit now in the premarket session. There are also 2 "possible" downside FP's in that appeared shortly after the upside FP yesterday. There are 283.95 and hit at 5:45 pm and 6:03 pm. The upside one was for 285.97 at 4:27 pm. My guess is that we bottomed yesterday at the low, which completed an small 5th wave down of a C wave of an ABC from last weeks' high. I think the entire move is either some kind of B wave down with the A up being from the low on May 13th to the May 16th high (where the B down started), or it's a wave 1 up and wave 2 down. Either way the next move should be an nice on, and it should be up. You don't know until it's over with but riding a C wave up or a wave 3 up is still a great one in my opinion.
Both usually subdivide into 5 smaller waves. So my guess is that the wave 1 up of that C or 3 up started at the low yesterday and ends at the upside FP, which then suggests the wave 2 down (or B) will pullback today after the open to the "possible" downside FP. It the typical pattern repeats I'd have to think we'll see it hit by the normal 10:30-11:30 time period. Of course it could take all day and close at that zone... no way to know for sure?
But I get the feeling we'll see those two downside FP's hit today and that will end the wave 2 down (or B) and setup a strong move up there afterwards. If this happens I'll be looking to go long as it could run for several days. Remember it's a 5 wave pattern so a wave 4 and 5 should happen at well. That pattern then will end a larger C up or just a larger 3 up (which suggests a larger 4 and 5 would follow). Either way it's a good short term long to try and catch in my humble opinion. Anyway, that's what I'm looking for today. Good Luck.
ES Morning Update May 20th 2019
The futures were up on Sunday night as they were trying to hold the rising channel in blue, but this morning they broke down as you can clearly see on the chart. I don't really have too much to go on in forecasting the rest of the day but it kind looks like a wave A down from the 2882 high on 5/16, then B up for a slightly higher high of 2887 on 5/17, and now we are in a C down. This C down had a wave 1 down on Friday, then 2 up Sunday night and this morning appears to be in a wave 3 down.
This suggests a bounce around the open for the wave 4 up, then wave 5 down to a slightly lower low later on today. At that point I'd say the wave C down would be complete, and so would the entire ABC move down from the 5/17 high. Next would be another rally up that should again breakdown into at least 5 waves, and could subdivide into more waves. I'm not an Elliottwave wave expert so I'm just keeping it short term and simple to read. The bigger count to some is very bullish and others it's bearish.
The bearish folks will look at the May 1st top to the May 13th low as just a large A wave down and the move up into the 16th as a B wave... which would then suggest we are in a large C wave down that should take out the lows on the 13th. Bulls will say that the top on May 1st was a large wave 1 up and the move down into the 13th was a large 2 down, suggesting we are starting a large wave 3 up and it's subdividing of course into smaller waves... which we'd had a medium 1 up into the 15th, and are now in the medium 2 down, and it subdivided into a small ABC down with the C dividing into 5 waves too.
I have to just be open minded to both sides as I really don't know which is right? And I really don't care. I just look to try my best to catch a big move up or down, like a wave 3 or C of some degree. So I'll just watch today to see what unfolds. My best guess is again a wave 3 down here at the open, which is inside a C wave of an ABC down from the high on the 15th. After it bottoms (maybe the lower trendline of the falling channel in black?) I'd look to see if the bulls can turn it back up and start a new series of waves up.
The first one up and two down would be the test as I'd want to see that form to catch the wave 3 up of whatever degree. I don't see anything for today as far as good trade setups it looks like today will be used to complete a down move and possibly get the start of the next move up going. I'd again want to see that wave 1 up and 2 down form first so that I could catch the wave 3 up, which might not show up until tomorrow or even later this week?
The bottom line here is that I'm going to wait on the sidelines here as I'm not interesting in chasing a move down this morning after it's already mostly over with, or at least suggests it is via the wave count. There's nothing worst the going short on a wave 4 down of a C wave to watch the 5th wave truncate short and then squeeze the crap back out of you as the ABC down wave count ends and some new up wave count starts. Have a blessed Monday.
ES Morning Update May 17th 2019
The market peaked out yesterday as I thought it might (finally got one right... LOL) and I'm happy to be short this morning. I'm not sure if we are going back up today after the open as that's certainly possibly with today being the monthly options expiration Friday... which means they will pin the SPY where the most puts and calls expire worthless. Just a quick look at the open interest suggests to me that the 284 and 285 area could be the targets. I don't see the market collapsing today though, mainly because it's (again) the monthly options expiration Friday.
So I'll look to exit my shorts and go back to cash until I see another opportunity next week. The upside still might not be finished yet... too early to know for sure. I've been here before where the first decent rally up from a low stalls around the half way mark and rolls over, but too many bears see it and short it, therefore it doesn't drop that much. Instead it just puts in a higher low and then makes another move back up afterwards to a hit the 3/4th mark or so... sometimes all the way up to 90% or more.
I could use the Fibonacci levels but the point isn't so much about a certain percentage but instead I'm trying to focus on getting the shorts to turn bullish on the next leg up. Where ever the market needs to go to reach that level is unknown but basically it happens after the first drop back down (from a half way rally up mark) fails to make a lower low... which I think will happen.
In fact (mainly because it's opex day) I think we won't even break the rising blue channel on this move down today. That's another reason to exits my shorts today. I get the feeling we will be going up early next week to a higher level to squeeze out the shorts. Only when they all become bulls will we see another more powerful drop happen I believe. Have a great weekend.
ES Morning Update May 16th 2019
The market seems to be playing the teasing game getting close to the lower FP yesterday but not hitting it, and this morning getting close to the upper FP. Will it get hit today? Only time will tell. I do think though that if they grind higher today and hit that FP by the close then it's a short going into Friday. I don't know if it will be a big drop or just another one that stays in the wide range between this weeks low and high, but it should be worth playing regards. So today that's what I'll be looking for... a grind higher to the upper FP on the SPY and QQQ.
If hit I'll be looking to short it. If we don't rally up to hit it and instead go back down from here then I'll sit on my hands it's just a ping pong game from the high to low and low to high for the week... which is too hard to trade as far as I'm concerned. On a bigger picture I believe we are getting close to a strong rally happening but one more flush out to the downside seems likely first. If we can get that drop on Friday to final take out 2800 and tag the 200 DMA below, which is around 2776 on the SPX today, then I think we'll see a big move up early next week happen.
Will it take out the current all time highs and run for 3000+... don't know? Maybe, or maybe it's just a lower high with another even bigger drop yet to come shortly thereafter. This is what I'm hoping will play out but of course SkyNet might have other plans. It's been super tricky so far, and I don't expect that to change, but I'm hoping I can "tune in" to the manipulation moves for awhile and catch one of these big moves. That's it, have a great day.
ES Morning Update May 15th 2019
Yesterday in the chatroom we talked about a possible FP being the upside target and I kinda thought the market might fool the bears with a gap up today but instead it gaped down again like it did from last Friday to Mondays action. But it doesn't look too severe this time around and it's appearing like it's going to back test a falling trendline and make a right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern.
I'm not a big believer just yet as it could just keep on heading south again but I'm leaning bullish here today and will look for the typical 1-2 hours into the morning session for a bottom. As you all know Europe closes at 11:30am EST and many times we see a top or bottom around that period as volume dries up. I don't think the downside is over with just yet but certainly a rally up for a few days is certainly overdue and should happen at some point. Anyway, I'll keep it short for now and end with that. Happy Hump Day.
ES Morning Update May 14th 2019
Yesterdays selloff was a nasty one. Certainly acted like a wave 3 down of some degree. This morning we have the futures up some, which tells me the downside isn't finished yet as if they were going to start a powerful rally I'd think we'd have another gap down that get immediately reversed back up to trap shorts... kinda like December 26th, 2018 did. Now I'm not saying the rally up would be as strong but the normal pattern is an exhaustion gap down that turns back up and puts in a bottoming tail candle pattern for the day.
So I can only conclude that today is just a typical bounce day after a large drop day. How long will it last is anyone's question? Maybe a day, maybe two days, or maybe just the open this morning? That's not much help I know but right now I just don't have a feel for the market. I've missed these drops as I got thrown off by the first surprise big down day on May 6th, the day before the passport code. And if you really want to talk about the start of the move down you have to start the next day after the May 1st high, so SkyNet has done a great job of tricking me on this entire series of drops.
The only thing I have to go on now is to think that the 200 day moving average on the SPX will be the next big support area. It's around 2770-2780 on the SPX, but on the DOW we already hit it yesterday as it's at 25,346 as the close. So I have to think we are close to a bottom that should start a powerful rally back up, but whether it makes a new all time high or low high is still unknown. Basically I'm just waiting this out (as I missed the entire drop) for that 200 DMA to hit and turn where I'll start looking for a long. Shorting just hasn't been very good for me lately so I'll just focus on catching the train ride north. Good luck trading today.
ES Morning Update May 13th 2019
The market certainly looks ugly this morning. First was the gap down Sunday night to the 2860 area, which was a nice backtest of the falling trendline that it pushed back up through on Fridays rally. This should have been the spot to hold and start another move back up from, but it gave way it seems and dropped hard again to a double bottom area now. I'm not sure what to think about this?
If you would have ask me last night I'd said the move up on Friday from the low looked like a nice clean A wave of some degree and the gap down Sunday night was the B wave, which would have lead me to believe we'd be going back up today for the C wave. But with this failure to hold and further drop that scenario is looking pretty weak right now. And if the bulls don't hold this double bottom area around 2825-2830 then look out below.
I'll keep this mornings update short as my ABC up to 2900-2920 seems to have failed (or is on life support) and the only thing left are crash calls and while I do think one is possible I wasn't expecting it for today. So best to just watch for now. Good luck.
ES Morning Update May 10th 2019
It's funny how everything in life is the opposite of what makes sense. Like if you were to climb a snow covered mountain you would walk up it slowly, step by step, and then when you went down it you would go fast on a pair of ski's or inter-tube. In the stock market the opposite seems true as the market does a slow step by step move down and then rips straight back up out of nowhere when you least expect it. SkyNet throttles the moves down but moves up don't have a circuit breaker.
We are going to have another mega squeeze at some point but not today. I suspect we will open as usually (down) and the selling pressure will dry up by 11am to noon. Then we'll float back up some but most likely close red. Why? Because everyone is still worried about this China deal, which is what the fake news blame the sell off on in the first place. We all know though that the market was just way overbought and needed to pullback some. The news of this deal is supposed to be released after the market closes (of course) or this weekend. Regardless though of the outcome the market is now getting short term oversold.
So I have to take the opposite side and think we'll see a strong rally up on Monday, Tuesday or Wednesday to end this current pullback. It could start right off on Monday if the news is viewed positively, or Monday could be that last exhaust move down from negative news... then the rip begins Tuesday. I wish I knew what was going to happen days before it did but I don't have a crystal ball or know a fortune teller that's real. So I have to just try and think like SkyNet and I think there's getting too many bears on board right now expecting a crash next week.
Therefore I think the opposite will happen as in order for the market to steal the sheep's money it has to trick them and put them on the wrong side of the trade all the time. Being short this weekend going into Monday I think is super risky. Yes, possibly the news of the outcome of the deal will be viewed super negative and Monday will gap down and go, but I give that low odds.
They tricked me this past Monday by putting out this China news over the prior weekend and then gaped it down Monday morning without me being short. They are very good at tricking the sheep, and I got tricked. Now I see everyone expecting the worst with this deal I have to think the surprise will be something positive out of it to cause a strong rally up next Monday. For this thinking to work I think we need to close red today, which it's certainly starting off that way, and then the bears should be fully loaded for a surprise squeeze on Monday.
If for some strange reason Trump does some tweet during market hours today, that is positive, and we get a mega squeeze going into the close today then I'd take the opposite side and think Monday will be a huge down day. Why? Because the positive news released to cause the squeeze will have been perfectly timed to get the bears out and the bulls loaded up long so SkyNet can pull the trap door on Monday with the bad news with no bears short. That's my two cents for today. Have a great weekend.
ES Morning Update May 9th 2019
Yesterday we got our choppy day with close around flat. This morning we see the futures went down more afterhours but have bounced back up some too. They are following the falling trendline and attempting to breakout but have failed and rolled over to fall even lower. With everyone waiting on the China news this Friday I doubt if we'll see much upside until it's over with. If a deal is reached then the market could rally hard, but if not the should drop even harder. So how will SkyNet trick everyone before the news actually does come out I wonder?
Since these gangsters are masters of fake news I'd leak out an early report today that was positive to squeeze out the shorts if I knew the meeting wasn't going to get any results. Or I'd leak out something negative to flush out the longs with another hard "capitulation" drop today if I knew the deal was done and would have a positive outcome. Then a strong rally could start afterwards. Personally I think the market is rip for a large drop, even bigger then what we already have seen. So I'm looking for that "positive' news leak today to cause the short squeeze, then no deal on Friday and the market starts the drop. If we get a decent or really nice rally up today I'll be interested in shorting it going into Friday.
I'll wait this out all day today to see what the close brings us. I want it to rally hard but I probably won't get it as SkyNet might want everyone puzzled so another flat close would keep them that way. Some will be short and some will be long but neither side will really know the outcome of the deal and the direction of the market there afterwards. If you are a bull you'll want a flush out move down today and if you are a bear you'll want some rally up (both from fake leaked news of course). That's really all I see for now as we wait on the China tariffs meeting news tomorrow. I'm more bearish then bullish for sure as I just don't see any deal happening. Good luck.
ES Morning Update May 8th 2019
Well, another Mini Flash Crash yesterday I guess as the ES Futures dropped from the Monday close of 2938 to 2862, which is 76 points in total. Today we see the futures down a little from the close but still above the 2862 low. I doubt if we see much more downside today as positive divergence has formed now so a small move up or seems more likely. I doubt if we are done on the downside but today appears like it's going to be a pause day or up day.
I was hoping the bulls would gap it up and do a strong rally to squeeze out the shorts so it could then rollover really hard tomorrow or Friday as the move up would be a B wave of some large degree with the entire move down being an A wave, which would leave a C wave down next. But if the bulls just chop around today and don't do too much on the upside or downside I'd have to rethink that ABC pattern and lean more toward the entire drop being a wave 4, which is either completed or will be today, possibly tomorrow.
Basically the bulls would be luring in more bears down here by chopping around today at the lows, and maybe tomorrow too? Then once they have enough bears short they start the squeeze back up but this time it's not going to stop at a lower high then last week to make a B wave but instead will keep going north in a wave 5 to make higher highs. For the bears to succeed and get another C wave down I think they need to see that strong B wave up to shake out some shorts first, and it needs to do so the day after a large drop.... which was yesterday.
The bears don't want the bulls to rest by chopping around for a day or two at the lows as that will result in too many new bears getting short, and that's just the fuel the bulls will need to produce a large wave 5 up that last many days or weeks, versus just a "one day wonder" squeeze to make a B wave up. The bulls usually out smart the bears here as the bulls have the Fed's protecting them.
So today will be interesting for sure. I'm rooting for a large "one day" squeeze as I'd like to catch the C wave down, but I rarely get want I want. More then likely we'll chop around down here near the bottom to lure in more shorts. There's also a gap on the ES Futures at 2840.75 from 3/31-4/1, so if the bulls plan on doing a wave 5 up next they will likely close that gap first and then turn up. Whether that's today or tomorrow is unknown. I'll just have to wait to see. Have great day.
ES Morning Update May 7th 2019
Yesterdays drop screwed up the big drop expected for today as now too many others are super bearish I believe. It's like Trump knew the market was ready to collapse so he tweeted over the weekend the China news so the market would gap down Monday instead of crash on Tuesday... which I think could have happen if Monday would have opened up flat and went sideways all day to close slightly green.
Instead they reset the charts so they can make another push higher. All that is needed for another strong rally up I believe is to close red again today and tomorrow to lure in enough bears so that can squeeze the crap out of them Thursday and Friday and into next week. It's totally crooked, I know, but remember that the market is 100% rigged... and they want it to go up all the time. However, they must reset charts from time to time to get more fuel to climb higher.
Of course that fuel is bear meat. So they plan these one day events where the market falls off a cliff when no one see's it coming. They force the sheep to chase it and of course the sheep get sheered when they do. Shorting the open yesterday would have got you creamed as it rose back up all day long from that gap down low. While that wasn't a 100 point drop open on the SPX it certainly was a deep one. Maybe we call those kind of drops "Mini Flash Crashes" whereas a regular "Flash Crash" is limit down (which is a 100 points, and/or 1,000 on the DOW).
Regardless of their name there's been a lot of them over the past 5 years or so, and all so perfectly timed out. They do the Flash Crash and rip it back up at the open so no one can benefit from shorting it, nor can anyone short in advance as they make sure no one see's it coming. It's very frustrating for sure as just when you think you have a shot at a big move the game plan changes. They do whatever it takes, pay off the referee or umpire, injure one of your players... or even injure one of their own players to get a "time out" to buy them more time to stop the momentum that the sheep (finally) have going for them.
Anyway, that's just me frustrated and bitching because I didn't see that gap down coming and never made a dime from it. Today you can look at the charts to see where the resistance is at. There's a falling trendline now that should stop the bulls but it doesn't by any means suggest that there will be another powerful drop like yesterday. It just suggests that the up move should stop around there and rollover or go slightly down to sideways. Could we still fall off a cliff today via the passport code? Sure, but I'm not betting the farm on it.
Odds now favor the bulls. They just need to keep it weak for today and tomorrow to lure in more bears, which shouldn't be hard too do with all that overhead resistance above. My guess is that they drift down today small to close it red, then do it again tomorrow as well. But I don't see them breaking the low from yesterday... at least not today. I'd love to see it rally up out of this zone and close green today and tomorrow to do the reverse by squeezing all the current bears from yesterday and luring in the bulls.
Then it would setup a really nice short. But I don't see it happening as I know how rigged the market is for the bulls so luring in more bears to produce a stronger, longer lasting rally is more likely then just squeezing yesterdays trapped bears, as that might only produce a 2-3 day move up at best... and setup another big short. For today, if you are a bear, I'd go back to sleep. The bulls surprised you yesterday and got you all fired up, but today they will likely just tease you. Good Luck.
ES Morning Update May 6th 2019
Sunday evening the futures gap down and this morning we see them barely up off of that low. Looks like clear signs of a top forming before a big correction starts. Will this drop get bought up and full reversed today like so many pullbacks in the past several months? Only time will tell. I've spoken many times about a series of drops and rips back up to happen before the next big plunge, and last weeks drop and rally as well as this mornings drop clearly qualifies.
I joked in the free chatroom on Friday that the only way I could see the market collapsing on Tuesday (picked because of the passport code) was for Monday to have a large "W" pattern happen to complete all the waves when referencing Tony Calaro's Elliott Wave charts, and here with this gap down it's actually possible. Still not likely but possible.
Basically this drop down would be his "Minute Wave 4" down, and a rally up from the open today to close the gap or get really close would be the "Minute Wave 5" up. After that another drop to retest the low, and/or pierce it would be his "Minor Wave 4" down, which would then need to be followed again by yet another rip back up into the close for the "Minor Wave 5" up to complete. Once that is done the entire rally up from the December 2018 low would have completed a large "Intermediate Wave 1" and a drop of 61.8% or 76.4% (or some other ratio to make a "higher low") would be next.
This would make "Intermediate Wave 2" down according to Tony's EW count before he passed away. Now Intermediate 1 up took over 4 months to happen from that December low so expecting Intermediate 2 down to play out in just one day is really insane. But the name of the movie is called "Non-Stop" and might just be referencing a crash move? We've seen "Flash Crashes" before where the DOW drops "limit down", or a 1,000 points in one day, but all of those moves stopped there and reversed back up afterwards.
What if this one doesn't stop after the first 1,000 points down? It's certainly a "wildcard" prediction so I'm not tell you or anyone to take a trade based solely on a passport code. I'll be watching closely today to see if Tony's EW count plays out with a "W" pattern today as I just described or if it takes days to weeks for that final Minor Wave 5 up to end... which is more normal of course.
All I can say is that I'm dreaming of such a move to play out and for the market to close green today so both bears and bulls are totally shaken out and/or fully confused. We need traders on the wrong side for a crash wave to happen, so bears must be out of the market and bulls must be fully long... which could happen if we rally up at the open and retest the lows for a double bottom as bulls should buy the crap out it. Then the rally up the rest of the day squeezes the bears and completes all the waves up from the December low. From there the market is ready and ripe to collapse on Tuesday. Dreaming again, but it's my story and I'm sticking to it. Good luck.
P.S. Strange coincidence I'm sure but we had a "Flash Crash" back on May 6th 2010... LOL
ES Morning Update May 3rd 2019
The last two days produced a decent little pullback in the market and it looks like a clean ABC wave 4 down to me. It held the rising trendlines of support and is bouncing back up nicely this morning. This 5th wave up is inside a larger wave 3 up and another larger wave 3 up (according to others that do EW better then me). This implies we'll need another wave 4 down, then 5 up... and then yet another wave 4 down and 5 up before all these wave 3's end.
This could easily push out into late May or longer... just depends on if these wave 5's up are the short kind or long ones. The bottom line here is that odds a flash crash next Tuesday are extremely low. It's just a dream as I said yesterday. These passport codes need to line up with other stuff to work I guess. Many wave counts need completed, technical analysis agrees with a large pullback, etc... and I know you might think that technical analysis right now suggests a big drop but when I look at the daily and weekly chart I don't see it that way.
Yes, they are overbought, but there's still room for them to go up higher. We're just not there yet. I want to catch a big move as bad as you guys do but it's just not showing up for me at the present. Day trading though as been fun for some I'm sure these past couple of days. Anyway, have a great weekend and lets see what Monday gives us. Maybe I can catch the next wave 4 down, who knows?
ES Morning Update May 2nd 2019
Looks like the market didn't like what the Fed had to say at yesterdays FOMC meeting as it sold off going into the close. This morning we see the futures slightly up, but basically about flat. I'm not sure what to think here so I'll just look for some technical setups to occur. If the bears can keep the market going sideways for several days, without letting the bulls get back up to yesterdays highs, then we'd have a bear flag formed and another drop should follow. How long does it need to form is the question?
Certainly today and tomorrow, probably Monday too, and maybe even Tuesday as well? Usually about 3-4 days of sideways movement with an upward bias is about all that is needed. That suggests Monday or Tuesday, and since Tuesday is the passport code it certainly would be nice if the bears could keep form this bear flag into the close on Monday and then drop it off a cliff on Tuesday. Odds don't really favor this as being the "big drop" down to that 245.29 FP on the SPY, but it's my dream scenario so just root for it please.
Reality suggests this move down is just some kind of wave 4 pullback and a wave 5 up is yet to come. This wave 4 down could have ended with just that one wave down into the close yesterday, or it could do an ABC move down whereas that bear flag I'd like to see happen would be the B up and the drop after that on Tues/Weds would be the C down (the A down would of course been yesterdays drop).
I think most are looking for the ABC move down to make the wave 4 and then back up after that for the 5th wave. No doubt this is the most logical pattern so me dreaming of catching another flash crash is just that... dreaming. Anyway, not much more to add then that. I do expect some kind of move up today, and hope it's a small one to start forming that bear flag. If large then the bears need to go back into hibernation again. Good Luck.
ES Morning Update May 1st 2019
Sleepy time is here... at least up until 2pm today when the FOMC is over with. From that point on is just a guess. Will it be a wild and crazy one or a lame duck like many have been in the recent past. The last time we had a wild one was August 17th, 2015 which was the start of the large move down into the following Mondays' Flash Crash. To me that's the Lucy crash as I had a passport code for that day from the movie called Lucy. I don't expect that to happen again but I have a passport code for next Tuesday, so it is on my watch list for sure.
I mean, we certainly are overbought enough for such an event to happen again, but there are some differences for sure between then and now. The main one is that we are still in an uptrend with higher highs happening on the various indexes. Back in 2015 we had topped out back in May and did a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's back up for lower highs going into that August 17th date. So it was ready for a wave 3 of 3 down (or C of C?).
This time around it's not setup for a large drop. But I'm not an elliottwave expert and could be wrong of course. After all, SkyNet probably doesn't care about wave counts as that's for us sheep to guess at. Anyway, for today I don't see much as again we need to have a top put in first and then a series of waves down and back up for lower highs before any large drop can setup... or at least that's the way it has been working for many, many years now.
Changes are possible with the market now 100% done electronically, so I won't complete rule out some flash crash happening from an all time high, but it's not something you can feel safe betting on... or see coming. So I shall wait to see what the Fed's say today. Maybe it's something shocking to rock the market up and down with wild swings like the old days... or maybe it's a non-event like so many in the recent past. I just don't know.
Regardless, I think we are closer to a top and large drop then a tiny pullback and large rally. Yes, I do think we'll see 3000+ on the SPX this year, but I suspect it will be a lot later to fool to most. SkyNet is a master at fooling the sheep, so a large drop here in May sometime would get them all super bearish expecting a lower high to happen in August or September from the rally back up. But it's that rally that should be the "squeeze" one to take out whatever high we put in before the drop and to keep going into the end of the year.
Just like how they tricked everyone last year with the December drop I think they will trick everyone with a September/October rally. The old patterns are changing for sure these days as seeing drops that large in December just about never happen, whereas seeing super strong rallies up in September, October and November are rare too. That's just me thinking outside the box. It probably means nothing. Have a happy hump day and try to stay awake.
ES Morning Update April 30th 2019
It's hard to believe that we are now one third of the way done with 2019 as time just flies so quickly it seems. It's slow from zero to age 18, then just right until about 30, but after that it starts picking up momentum and runs faster every decade thereafter. A nice fellow from my tiny church died last week at the age of 90, which is a nice long life I think. He sat beside me Sunday mornings and I would help him stand up to sing and stuff.
We've lost a lot of members at our church over the past several years. They are the lucky one's that get to go to Heaven and be free. For the rest of us alive we are still trapped in a world (a beautiful one though...) that is run by satan, who keeps us all a slave to money. Without it we live a hard life, and making it is not easy.
We stock market traders play in satans' backyard as he fully controls it via SkyNet it seems. Right now the market is waiting on the Fed's as they start their two day FOMC meeting today. Will they raise rates, keep them the same, or lower them is what the market wants to know. Whatever happens SkyNet has already decided on the next big move. I think we'll go up on Wednesday like we have most of the FOMC days in the past.
The Fed's don't like to be blamed for anything bad in the stock market so expect them to juice the market higher afterwards. I've noticed in the past that the "after-effect" usually carries over for 1-2 days, which suggests a top by this Thursday or Friday. If I remember correctly the last time we had a big drop start the day of the FOMC was on August 17th, 2015... which lead to the "Lucy" flash crash the following Monday on August 24th (named by me for passport code with that date from the movie with that name).
Could that happen again? Sure. This market is extremely overbought so anything could happen. I don't foresee it though, but I won't rule it out either. We do have another passport code for next week on May 7th, 2019... isn't that interesting? It's from the movie called "Non-Stop" (catchy name... does it mean a drop is coming that is non-stop?). Anyway, I don't expect much for today as the market is (again) likely in "wait and see" mode until after the 2pm meeting ends tomorrow. Have a great day.
ES Morning Update April 29th 2019
Oh what a beautiful morning it is here in southern Ohio where I live. But the pollen count must be high as my allergies are kicking my butt. Still though, it much much better then cold weather... especially when you don't even get the pretty snow to go with it like last year.
Anyway, I don't have much to add this morning other then "we are close"... meaning we could see a top this week if the market goes up today and tomorrow without pulling back much. If it closes down on either day then it's likely subdividing into smaller waves and could push up into next week or mid-May. I'm rooting for the bulls to just keep on stampeding upward these next few days so they can get it over with and let the bears have some fun.
Speaking of fun for the bears, as you know I've mentioned several times recently that I was expecting a 50-100 point pullback and then up again into the summer before a larger drop happens... like down to that "possible" FP of 245.29 on the SPY. I've been thinking a lot about that FP and I'm not a 100% that it's a real one. There is a chance that it's just a late fill from that day. It was put out on 2/7/19 of this year, which isn't an "eleven" date, so that's a concern of course.
I remember my first FP (which told the low for the year) was on 1/11/2010 and was on the SPX for a low of 1047, which is 111 as 4+7=11, keep the first 1 and drop the 0. Plus the day of the month had an eleven in it as it was on the 11th. The FP was also way out of the trading zone of the past several days before it, so it was certainly a real one.
The one I have from this January 7th, 2019 was trading in that zone just 2 days prior, so that has me a little worried that it could be a late fill by a market maker instead of a real fake print. But it does have the eleven code in it, a double eleven at that! So that is encouraging. Last year we had the upside FP for 293.90 on the SPY and it was hit and pierced slightly (common) on September 21st, 2018. That FP came out on 2/27/2018, which is a double eleven again. It's 2+2+7=11 and 2+0+1+8=11, or 11 11. The 293.90 part though is a 5 as 2+9+3+9+0=23 and 2+3=5.
Possibly (this is just me "thinking out loud", or in this case... thinking and writing) the 245.29 FP for this year just did a flip whereas it wasn't possible to get a double eleven code out of the date so they did it in the actual fake print? Basically this possible FP could still be a real one as it has the "eleven" code in the numbers... just not the date like last years FP. But since I'm not a club member of the insiders I have to guess at the correct way to read these prints.
Anyway, we'll cross that road when we start dropping hard, which might start this week? Don't forget about the passport code I have for next week. While every passport code doesn't play out the Lucy one certainly did, as that was the day of the flas crash on August 24th, 2015. Are we going to have another flash crash on this coming passport code date? Only time will tell...
ES Morning Update April 26th 2019
Well, looks like another flat open with the futures barely up. Yesterdays open was hit with more selling by the insiders it seems. We are going on about two months now where some 80% (rough guess) of the opens each day are being sold. It takes time for them to unload all the tons of shares they bought at the bottom back in December as they can only sell small amounts at a time to the retail pubic... aka, "The Sheep" or "Dumb Money". These things aren't normal in my opinion, at least not for everyone just expecting a 50-100 SPX point pullback, and then another higher high to 3000+ by mid-summer. It doesn't makes sense that the big boys would spend 2 months unloading for such a small move down. It smells of a large drop coming... like maybe all the way down to the FP on the SPY from 1/7... which I'm not a 100% positive it's a real one as it did fall into the prior days' trading zone.
To get one that is 100% I'd want to see it go to a level that the market hadn't traded at in weeks or months. However, it's got the 11 code in numbers so that's encouraging at least. I'm going with 80% positive it's a real FP that will be hit before this year is over with. But will it be hit on this coming move down is the real question? I have to add that's there's a movie code coming up early next month, and we all know what happened on 8/24/2015, which was the date on the passport in the movie called "Inception" (2010) and "Lucy" (2014)... so that event was planned at least 5 years in advance. It had 2 movies, or double conformation.
This movie for next month is called "Non-Stop" (2014)... catchy name huh? I find the names of the movie also tell a clue as I believe it was sometime in 2015 when governments around the world started putting up statures to worship satan (Baal). So the prior 2 movies could be read as "Inception of Lucifer". What does the name "Non-Stop" refer too I wonder? The move down on October 19th, 1987 was certainly something that could be described as "Non-Stop".
I'm not saying that's going to happen again but I am saying we have some weird clues that "hint" of something big happening very soon. Just be alert... very alert. The pedophiles might do another False Flag event to blame the coming move down on. I'm sure they will blame it on Trump too if they pull it off. Considering that movie was put out in 2014 and it's now 5 years later it certainly should re-assure you we live in the Matrix and it's a 100% planned out, controlled and executed exactly on time.
Ok, for the short term (today) I have no opinion. The market is in chop zone so I really don't have any clues on the direction today. But if the insiders don't hit the open again with sell orders then they might leave early for the weekend and let it float up all day and close green. Have a great weekend everyone and remember to question everything. Use logical to call out B.S., always remember that God is real. The satanist know satan is real, so logic say God and Jesus is real too.
ES Morning Update April 25th 2019
Looks like another day of nothing to me, with no clear direction for the bulls or bears. But, we have the FP on Apple that is almost hit, so that should mark the top for it and possibly the market too. I will say this, the longer the market go sideways the bigger the next move should be. So if it does this crap again today, and tomorrow... and maybe part of next week too (doesn't seem likely but nothing is impossible) then whichever way it breaks out should start a very large move. If up then another strong rally should take us up to 3000 or 3100+ before it runs out of steam. But if it breaks down then the drop should much more then the 50-100 points that I've been guessing at for awhile now.
We have a passport code coming up in two weeks and we have some political stuff going on with China and a meeting with Trump on the 8th, so something is brewing for sure. Will it cause another melt up or breakdown is the question? Obviously I'm leaning toward a breakdown as the past several weeks we saw many gap ups that got sold into by the insiders, and they know the next big move. Since we've been going sideways for several days now those insiders might be finished unloading their longs to the retail sheep and are just waiting for some signal to go short.
I say that because the volume in the SPY is so low these past days that it's very unlikely the insiders are shorting it yet. This China news might be what they are waiting on? Maybe they don't know the outcome but suspect it's going to be bad news and if it is then they will jump in short with both hands afterwards. Between now and then I'd like to see a top put in and a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up start forming. Just a nice slow stair step move down with slightly lower highs on each bounce back up for the wave 2's.
If timed out correctly (and big moves always do as the market has always been rigged) then the layered wave 3's down should happen around the China meeting... or some other news event. I'm focused on the China event mainly because it's so close to the passport code for the 7th, but any bad news event could be the trigger. It's just that this China meeting has to do with money, and lots of it.... the kind that can shake the market.
Anyway, I have no opinion on the direction of the market today. Yesterday we did pullback some and closed at 292.23 on the SPY, so that was close to my 292 pin. But there's no options expiration for today so it's open to go up or down... or nowhere. For me, I'm just going to play the waiting game. Sometimes it's better to be in cash then in a trade (actually, a lot of times that's true... LOL).





