Yesterday the bulls put another hurting on the bears as they squeezed them up all morning long and went sideways the rest of the day. Afterhours and premarket we see more sideways movement but with the open interest in the calls sitting at the 292 strike price I have to think we'll pull back today by the close to make them expire worthless. The big interest in the puts on the SPY is at the 290 strike price, so I just don't see this 293 zone holding all day long.

Odds say we'll pullback small before making another attempt at a new all time high. So far the futures have hit 2939.25 and I believe the all time high was 2942 and change, so while many other will just expect the bulls to just push on up through it today I really have my doubts. Will we make a new all time high? Of course we will but again, it rarely happens on the first attempt. Yes, the market is rigged, and yes it's changed now that it's near a 100% computer driven, (it was 84% in 2014 when the floor in Chicago was still open), but people still trade on emotions.

And since most sheep have thrown in the towel on the short side and are now likely long (just expecting the market to march on up to 3000+) you have to think the opposite. We should start getting a series of small pullbacks and then second, third and fourth attempts at a new all time high in the coming weeks. One of those attempts might make it through by a few points but the move to 3000+ should not happen until a decent pullback happens. I mean 50-100 points to lure in enough bears to make the squeeze back up easier. It might need to go deeper then that too so they can shake out the "buy the dipper bulls" as well.

The month of May has been picked up an old saying over the years called "Sell in May and go away". It referred to traders that were mostly bulls who went long at the first of the year and would commonly sell in May (but not necessarily go short... mainly they went to cash) so they could take the summer off and spend time with family or go on vacation.

This old saying really hasn't worked too well since the 2013 as every May from there up until now has been up or at least flat. Today we have more and more every day folks trading from home on their computers and this growth has certainly changed the game. The old floor traders that would take the summer off (if they could as some still had to work I'm sure) just aren't there anymore as the last exchange in Chicago was shutdown several years ago. Also added several years ago was the introduction of the weekly options now available on most ETF's that expire on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays.

Another old saying was to "buy the low on the Thursday or Friday of the second week of the month", which was because the market makers would commonly drive prices down that week to sell "puts" to the sheep and then run it back up on the third week going into the monthly option expiration on that Friday. This doesn't happen anymore much either as the weekly options now make that third Friday not much more important then any other Friday of the month.

Times have changed and traders have to change as well. Old saying don't always work anymore. So will we go down in May this month? I doubt if the actual monthly close does much more then end up flat, slightly down or slightly up. But intra-month we could certainly see a pullback. Short term I think today will close at the 292 strike price or below it. Happy Hump Day.

Another day of a flat looking open it seems. The more time that passes by the bigger the expected move to follow I believe. The question is... will be a breakout upside move or a breakdown? Only time will tell. But there's hope as clues can (and commonly do) appear before the next big move. Hopefully I'm able to spot them in advance. For this morning I don't currently see anything, but that could change by the close today and I'll of course post it in the free chatroom. The QQQ had an afterhours spike to 188.86 after the close yesterday, so that "possible" FP could be the high on it today?

If that's all we get on the upside for other indexes today as well then I'd have to lean toward a sell setting up by the close. Still too early to confirm yet but that's my hunch right now. Maybe it stretches out into Wednesday or even Thursday... possible for sure. But a sell to me has higher odds then a buy due to the selling we've seen by the big boys over the last several weeks. All of those times where they would goose the futures afterhours and premarket to hit the open with sell orders tells me it's just a matter of time before we see a nice pullback start. It could be at today's close or tomorrow or Thursday... maybe even Friday? I don't know yet but a nice move down seems way more likely to me then another 1,000 points (DOW) rally is.

It's true that we are really close to that all time high from last year, but as I've said several times now, it's rare to see the first attempt up at a new high just bust on through it without a decent pullback first. So odds still lean to the bears here but that doesn't mean it's ready to drop just yet. Possibly they do a fake out move up to squeeze some shorts that has a quick reversal back down (but still doesn't take out the all time highs... just gets closer). Anyway, I don't have much to add today as the market goes sideways trying to make up its' mind on the next big move. Good luck trading.

Finally... a pullback! Yesterdays pop and drop was a decent enough move for me to now believe a pullback is starting. Call it the A wave down yesterday and if we can get a tiny B wave up today then I can short it over the long weekend for that C wave down to start on Monday. Yeah, it sucks doing it over a weekend, and it's why many won't short. Which is also why SkyNet likes to pull those stunts over a weekend to trap traders on the wrong side.

Many times we'll see a last drop into the close on some Friday to trap short over the weekend when the following Monday it gaps up and squeezes them all day long. But this time I'm expecting the opposite to happen where SkyNet lures in the bulls into the close today and then gaps it down next Monday.

What I don't want to see today is a move up higher then yesterdays high... and I don't think it will happen. The big boys were clearly hammer the sell button at the open yesterday as you can see the volume was heavy the first hour or so. If you go back to the 8th of this month you'll see how it opened with a gap down where big boys had sell orders in for the open, then floated up the rest of the day.

On the 9th it gaped down again with heavy sell orders at the open but struggled the rest of the day to rally back up. On the 10th it looks like the big boys took the day off to let the market rally back up more. But on the 11th they hammered again around midday this time. On the 12th they had their gangster buddies put out some upgrades if I recall correct to cause a nice gap up that Friday morning... which again they sold into.

Then this Monday the 15th the market open up with a small gap up and once again it got sold into. Tuesday the 16th... another gap up! What a surprise... LOL! Of course it got sold into as well. Then yesterday (the 17th) more paid liars upgraded more stocks, and the market really did a nice gap up at the open. This time the big boys hit the sell button a lot harder as the market dropped quite a bit the rest of the day from that morning peak. Now looking at the futures this morning we see them up a little but still quite a way down from yesterdays high.

I suspect the big boys will take today off since they hammered the market so hard yesterday and we'll then see how strong (or weak) the market really is. If it manages to rally up to another higher high then yesterday I'd be shocked and take no position over the weekend. But I suspect it will struggle all day and gain very little due to the increased selling pressure by the big boys and the lack of buying by the retail sheep. If I'm right then we'll see a small B wave up and then a nice C wave down on Monday.

So I'll be looking closing for a short at the end of the day today and will of course alert everyone in the free chatroom if I do or don't take the trade. Look out for the unexpected over the weekend is what I'm thinking... news wise I mean. There's a gap on the futures at 2840.75 from 3/29-3/31, so I'm looking for that to get filled at the minimum... if this drop happens? The DOW is pretty important too as the "even number" level of 26,000 is something the bulls will want to make sure they don't lose on a closing bases when the drop happens. Have a great long weekend and may God bless you and your family (trading too... I know I need it).

Not much to say this morning that hasn't already been said. It's the same today as yesterday it appears. More grinding up. It looks like tomorrow could be the same too with more choppy sideways action. Remember that the market is closed on Friday so I expect more light volume today and tomorrow due to the holiday. I still don't see the bulls blasting on through to make a new all time high this week, or next... at least not on this first attempt. A pullback should happen first, but it's not looking likely for this week. For today... "same as it ever was".

The futures are up this morning into the 2920 area, so today will be an interested day as I suspect everyone will be getting super bullish here expecting a new all time high to be the next target. Will history repeat and therefore we'll see a pullback first and then a second run up toward that all time high, or will this time be different with the market just blasting right through it on the first hit? Only time will tell I guess but I'm certainly not interested in a long up at this level.

And I'm too scared to short it... LOL. But if we get a pullback I'd be interested in a long... and unfortunately so would everyone else. And that's the reason that I believe the pullback (if any happens?) will be deeper then most expect. Like 80-100 points instead of 20-30 where many will jump in long at. I'm going against the grain here as many good people see us in a wave 3 of 3 up right now, and who can disagree at this point? Day after day the market keeps going higher with tiny pullbacks intraday.

So it's obviously in some kind of wave 3 up. My question is... when does in end? And what if it's not a wave 3 and instead it's a wave 5? That could change a lot as then a pullback would be the start of a new ABC move down and not just a small wave 4 move. So I wait patiently each day to see if any sell setups can form. I'm looking for clean 5 wave moves that end with negative divergence on the daily chart and other time frame too. I'm also looking for resistance levels and Fibonacci ratio to line up. It's not just one thing I'm focused on.

Then there's code in the numbers, possible fake prints, and even passport codes. Unfortunately the only upside FP I have is on Apple for 209.95 and it's only around 200 right now. Possibly that FP will mark the high in the market too? The next passport code I have is for May 7th, so that's plenty of time for Apple to hit its fake print... which would certainly put the SPX at new all time high I'd have to think. Those things keep me on the sidelines for now as they are way more reliable then any wave count or technical analysis.

Maybe we do only get a small 20-30 point pullback here soon and then we blast on through that all time high so that Apple can hit its FP and top out the market? It's completely possible that it happens like that, which again is another reason for me to stay out of the market for now until something clearer forms. As for today... I don't have much to offer. Probably more sideways crap after the gap up open. Good luck.

Here we are again without a clue on where or when the market is going to reverse back down. I'm still thinking though that we won't take out the 2942 all time high on the first attempt and will rollover in the 2910-2920 zone (which we are inside that area now). The closer it gets to the all time high the more bears that will pile on short. That's why I think it will top and turn 20+ points early of hitting that prior high as SkyNet doesn't want the bears to catch the ride from the top and will likely want them to chase it down.

I'm not sure how it's going to play out but another sideways day today, then small dip on Tuesday and back up on Wednesday wouldn't surprise me at all. From there though I think we'll start to pullback into the rest of the week and the week after. There's a gap from 3-29 to 3-31 on the futures at 2840.75, so at the very minimum I expect that level to be hit and fill that gap. It should go a little lower I think and pierce the double bottom from 3-25 and 3-27, which was around 2790 or so.

This might take a couple of weeks with fast "buy the dip" rallies in-between but a move down is very likely coming soon. Could it just push on through the all time high and not look back? Sure it could but history tells a different story. First attempts at hitting an all time high and going through it rarely ever work. It's just the mindset of traders I guess that once such a level gets close they all just assume it will be hit and therefore they bail on shorts and go long looking for that new high.

Of course the stock market is rigged to take the dumb money and give it to the smart money, so when SkyNet see's this in the amount of puts and calls it is forced to go the other way. Remember that the market makers are sellers of puts and calls and NEVER want to pay out on them once they have been sold. Their job is to manipulate the market up and down to make sure those puts and calls expire worthless so they can keep the money.

They are just like insurance companies whose goal is to make sure they collect the monthly premiums but rarely ever pay out. They spend tons of money on slick lawyers to make sure all the fine print covers them to the maximum so claims made get paid out in a fraction of what should be paid (stipulations, caps and limits in legal documents) or never paid out (loop holes in the fine print).

A criminals job is to deceive you and make you think he's honest, and the stock market does just that. You are fighting against a super computer that controls the media (to brainwash you into getting on wrong side of the trade), see's the cards in your hand (knows the open interest of puts and calls), and see's where you placed your stops at.

Needless to say it's not an easy game to play. The cards are extremely stacked against you. And if you think there's some secret trading method that can make you rich then you are dreaming or believing those scammers doing internet ads on youtube like Jason Bonds, Kyle Dennis, Jeff Bishop, Petra Hess, or Mark Deaton. Trust me when I tell you that NONE of them have a secret formula that works.

Anyway, for today I again don't expect much action. I do think we are close to a nice pullback but it seems that most of the time the first few days of the week are boring and the bigger moves happen late in the week. So I'm still thinking that we could pullback small on Tuesday and back up on Wednesday to double top whatever the high is today. Then I think we'll start the move down. Happy Monday.

No surprise here this morning before the open really as the market is rigged to go up probably 80% or more of the time, so expecting a nice setup to form for the bears is like buying a lottery ticket sometimes. I'm just glad I stayed in cash as that saved me from being trapped short this morning. Of course I refused to go long as we are quite overbought up here and overdue for a nice pullback. So I'm forced to wait for a better opportunity, which might just be around the corner here soon?

I don't see anything big setting up on the sell side for today so other then some possible morning dip I'd expect this rally up to hold into the close and maybe grind up a little higher even. I've been thinking that the past several days of sideways action could be a wave 4 of some degree so it's likely this is the wave 5 up happening now. I suspect this will carry over into next week too so there's very low odds of me taking any short over the weekend. Could it top today and drop on Monday? Sure, but I don't see it as likely.

There's nothing in the "possible" wave counts to give me enough clues that a big drop is coming. Dip buyers are always around at a top, so the first decent pullback will undoubtedly have a move back up... and that's what I'm looking for to short at. We are up in that area (2910-2920) where a top could happen. Again, it's just too early to know right now. But remember that it's common for the first attempt at a new all time high usually fails, so a pullback late next week is certainly possible. We need to see some weakness first though, which I think could happen on Monday or Tuesday. For today though I don't see any high odds trade. Have a great weekend.

I took yesterday off guys and it looks like I didn't miss much. On Tuesday after the close there was a FP on the SPY pointing to 288.95 around 4:25 pm. Then on Wednesday the market started the climb up to hit that FP but fell about 50 cents shy by the close. Then afterhours yesterday the grind up continued until about 9:30 pm where the FP was hit, and a pullback followed from there. Then it's back up again this morning to re-hit that FP (288.99) around 7:10 am, so I'm not sure if it will be hit again during the normal hours session as I have seen a fake print in the past trick me by hitting it during the afterhours/premarket period and reversed from there. Anyway, the bulls are still in control here as this sideways action is making a bull flag. But time is limited so they need to breakout to the upside soon and clear 2900 (and possibly the all time high too?) or else they will risk turning the ball over to the bears.

Knowing how rigged the market is I have to think that we could see another day of this action tomorrow too just so they can release some news over the weekend to gap it up and over resistance or tank it down hard with traders trapped on the wrong side. If this was a game of football then each green close on the market (the DOW and the SPX, but the DOW is most important I believe as it "foretells" weakest or strength) would be like gaining some yardage for another down. So while we've certainly seen more then 4 green days in a row happen it's not an exact science that each one green close equals a 1st down, 2nd down, 3rd down or 4th down. But I view today as being either the 3rd down or the 4th down... not sure which?

Put simply I think the bulls are running out of time here and need to breakout today or tomorrow or they will be forced to turn the ball over to the bears. If the bulls were smart here they would drop back some (small) to close red, which would be like them getting a penalty flag against the bears. I wouldn't go so far as to say they would earn another 1st down but the same down repeated over (to buy them an extra day) is certainly possible. It's weird to me why I even thought about comparing the market to football as I honestly don't watch it at all. I don't think I have in 10 or 20 years? Crazy!

But I did go to see the Jacksonville Jaguars 3 or 4 live when they first became a new football team back in 1990 something. It was their first year and I have to say it was a lot of fun at the time. I played a men's softball for about 10 years back then too and loved it... waaaaaay more fun then baseball as you get to hit the ball a lot more and never really strike out. More action is more fun. Anyway, for today I'll be focused on seeing if the bulls can squeak out a little more upside and hold it into the close today. If we do close green I'll be looking for a short, but my hunch is that we'd close slightly red today and then green tomorrow to fool bulls and bears alike so they will both be positioned wrong on Monday.

Then all you need is some news properly released over the weekend to get the next big move started. I still think it will be down and I wouldn't be shocked one bit if we didn't pullback small today and squeeze up hard tomorrow to get within 10-20 points of that all time high. If I were SkyNet that's what I'd do. Then everyone will assume we are going to take out that all time high next week and will be long. They will be thinking a nice pierce through it would put in a top and then they would want to short that double top zone.

However, SkyNet rarely gives everyone what they want. From my experience the first move up toward a prior high falls short of it by just enough points keep traders from taking a short position, and hanging out around 2900 is certainly well below that double top area. Even a fast squeeze tomorrow to say the 2920's is below that all time high enough to keep the bears from jumping onboard. So today at the close or tomorrow could be the short setup I've been waiting on. I'll let everyone know when and if I short in the chatroom of course.

Yesterday was showing some life by the bears at the open but it all faded away by the close. This morning we see the futures about flat so I have to think that if this continues into tomorrow the bears will likely be toast as it will become a nice bull flag for the bulls to launch higher from. Clearly there's a battle here at the 2900 even number level but bulls have the edge and while a significant pullback is long overdue it's not looking good right now. This week is still young but it's leaning toward a breakout to the upside right now.

Bears really need to drive the bulls back today if they want stand a chance on creating a nice pullback. I have my doubts on it happening though as if the bulls can just go sideways one more day they will run into a rising trendline of support where they can launch back up from to take out 2900 and then some. Now... will we hit a new all time high? I just don't know? Maybe, but usually new highs are NOT created on the first attempt up, so if they take out 2900 decently this week and make a run for that 2942 all time high then it should fail and fall short and pullback from it.

But if it just barely drops and holds above 2900 all week then it could certainly push through to a new all time high next week. Meaning that in that scenario it would have much better odds on a second attempt, but this first attempt is one that "usually" fails. I'm still in the camp of thinking that we'll see an 80-100 point pullback before a new all time high.

And as I'm writing this morning update about an hour before the open I see the futures rolling over now. Not much but not flat like before either. Maybe we drop to that rising trendline over the next day or so and then make another run back up? This is what I mean when I say that when the market gets close to a form all time high it will commonly pullback, and the futures did hit the 2900.00 exactly in the afterhours session, so that might be all she wrote for that attempt higher.

On the SPY I noticed that the futures hit a high of 288.93 in the weekend afterhours session but by the open Monday they gaped down. Then the rally back up into the close yesterday when as high as 288.91... just shy of that prior high. It means to me that the weekend high and drop to the Monday morning low could have been a small A wave down in some kind of ABC pattern.

Then the rally all day into the close to stop just 2 cents shy of the weekend high was the small B wave up. If so then the current early morning drop just might be the start of the small C wave down, which could go into the 286.00-286.50 area if correct? This was the pattern I was looking for yesterday and talked about all day in the free chatroom but that rally up into the close had me thinking I was wrong as it went so high. Now it's possible again. Still a "best guess" type of market right now. Good luck.

It's always hard to figure out Mondays lately as they seem to be pause days before the market decides the direction for the week. But we are getting up into that zone where a nice pullback is likely. The bulls now are expecting a double top or higher high as the bears have pretty much given up. I find that when you look back at the past you'll see many times where the market rallies up into a resistance zone where a double top hit is possible but it seems to fall short the majority of the times on the first attempt. Rarely does it blast up through it on the first go at it, so this time shouldn't be any different.

There's likely a pullback coming (I'd guess 80-100 SPX points) before the all time high is taken out. Since we are so close now I'd have to think this week will be when that pullback starts. What day it starts though is another story? So I'll just keep this update short and end it here. We are close for sure. Maybe we go up a little more but I'm not expecting any new all time high before a decent pullback happens first. Maybe it starts today, just don't know? I'll just take it day by day and so far I don't have any clues for this morning. Best of luck to you.

Futures are up again this morning after a nice pop at 8:30 am. It seems pretty clear they want that 2900 level, but this could also be a bull trap so I wouldn't get too excited about it at this point. Today might be a tricky day as the market makers need to pin the SPY at a certain level to force both puts and calls to expire worthless. Looking at the open interest on various strike prices the 290 level has the most calls and 285 has the most puts, so a pin between 287 and 288 seems most likely to me. It's hard to know for sure but it wouldn't surprise me at all if this morning pop fades by the close.

I don't see any high odds trades for today or the close as the bulls still have full control right now. I'd like to see some shake out moves where we drop and rally and drop and rally before I'd believe a nice pullback was going to happen. And I'd like to see some volume behind it. Call it some wave 1's down and wave 2's up if you want, but that's basically what is needed to put in a top and drop. My guess is that we won't see that happen until we at least hit and pierce through that even number level of 2900, which I don't see today but very possible for Monday or Tuesday.

If I were SkyNet I'd drop it some today to lure in shorts for the weekend, and then squeeze them hard on Monday to hit 2900 by the open. That's about the only way I can see them pushing the market higher as there is NO real buying right now of stocks. The big boys have been selling into this topping area for quite awhile now. If the futures market didn't exists then they wouldn't have the ability to squeeze the shorts, and the stock market would probably be about one half to one third of its present value... yeah, it's that crazy.

You've seen other countries shutdown the ability for traders to short and their market collapsed even further. Shorting is what keeps the market going up... as crazy as that sounds. Take that away and all you have is buying and selling of stock, so the big boys would be trying to sell at tops into the retail sheep but if they aren't buying then the stocks would collapse. But when you get someone on the futures market short the big boys can spend a small amount of money overnight when volume is super low to buy up stocks and make the market go up, which then will force the shorts to cover their position at the open. This is where the bigger volume comes in.

While that buying back of stocks at higher prices then the level they shorted them at is going on the insiders will sell their stock into that forced buying. It's NOT real buying by investors that think the stock is going up over time but FORCED buying by trapped shorts. It's a HUGE difference as it creates bubbles in the market, which lead to big drops at some point in the future and crashes too. But, it's setup that way on purpose so the insiders can continue to steal from the sheep.

They control the media so you'll always see the financial Guru's on TV pumping a stock after it's ran up 80-90% of it's move and brag about the last 10-20% move. Then they never tell you to sell it at the top but go quite and move on to some other subject or stock. Naturally the stock collapses over time as the big boys have sold out and aren't supporting the stock by doing anymore buying and the retail sheep are already "all-in", so they can't help.

Once the stock drops enough the big boys pay the Guru's to start trash talking the stock again to drive the price down further so the insiders can buy it back from the panicked retail sheep. That process starts after the stock has fallen 80-90% of the move down where the big boys want to buy it back at. The Guru then brags again about that last 10-20% of the drop telling the sheep they should have sold as it dropped that last little bit. Then the Guru goes quiet again while the insiders buy it all up at cheap prices. The process repeats over and over and over. Have a great weekend.

The bears finally woke up yesterday as the rally up by the bulls was attacked by midday and drove down into near the close where the market actually went red for awhile. But at the last minute the bulls run it back up to close it green. This was what I kinda thought might happen as the bulls got close to the even number of 2900 yesterday. As I mentioned in yesterdays post it's quite common to see the first attempt at an even number level fail, which it did. Ok, from what I see from others who do Elliottwave we were apparently in some kind of small wave 3 up inside a little bigger wave 3 up since over a week or so ago.

I'm not sure what they think of this pullback but my thoughts are that it's the small wave 4 down inside that little bigger wave 3 up. Now if it finished yesterday then we should have a small wave 5 up today to end it and end the little bigger wave 3 up. We all know that 5th waves can truncate short so it doesn't have to make a higher high today... and it doesn't have to complete today. It could grind up into Friday before it ends.

There's also the chance that it could subdivide into an ABC small wave 4 down. So lot's of possibilities here. That's why I find it very hard to trade off of Elliottwave along. But added with other methods it can be helpful. So if we go up today near the high from yesterday it should either be the small wave 5 up to complete the little bigger wave 3 up, or just the B wave up of the small wave 4 down... which in both cases another move down should follow.

Therefore I'll be watching closely for that move up to short it. It might not happen today as I said and instead get dragged out into Friday. Then there's also the possibility that we chop sideways early today and drop into the close, which I think think we did indeed subdivide into an ABC and the drop at the end of the day would be the C wave of that small wave 4 down. Then they could rally up Friday for the small wave 5 and put in a double top if they wanted and setup next Monday for the little bigger wave 4 down to start. These are all the possible moves I see as possible for today. I'll of course add my thoughts through out the day in the free chatroom to let everyone know where I think we are at. Have a blessed day on this beautiful planet. Thank God spring is here.

Futures up again this morning with yesterdays flat open looking like a consolidation day now. Gap after gap they keep pounding on the bears. They are so close now to the 2900 level that I'm sure most are thinking it's a "given" and that's usually when SkyNet pulls a fast one on them and does a pullback. It's not something I'm willing to bet on but it's common for the first attempt at an even number level to fall shy by 10-20 points, so if there's ever a day to trick the sheep and reverse back down some today would be a good one.

If I were SkyNet I'd go sideways early in the day and then drop it into the close to trap longs and make the bears miss it. Again, not something I'd bet on as clearly the bulls have the momentum here and could just keep on going up pushing through 2900 and running for the all time high, but too me that's exactly what I think most people will see as likely... which is why I think the opposite might happen.

As far as technicals there's not much to say... and wave counts still suggest this is some kind of C wave up and one that's subdivided into 5 smaller waves, which now suggest yesterdays sideways action was a wave 4 and this morning we should be in a wave 5 up. Of course it might subdivide into smaller waves too, which would be needed I think if they plan on taking out the all time high on this push up. A better plan would be to pullback today in my humble opinion and make another rally attempt later.

I don't really have anything else to add to this update. It's at one of those times where there's no much clear in the charts for the direction. It's been bullish now for awhile and I guess it will continue to be bullish until it's not. We should be close now to a pullback but "close" could be another rally up tomorrow, and/or the next day. So I sit waiting... Happy Hump Day.

Futures are flat this morning, which is normal after such a large move up. And most days after such a large move are consolidation days, where the market just chops sideways with very little up or down movement. At this point I'd have to think that the bulls want that even number level of 2900 next, but usually even number level aren't reached on the first attempt. They tend to get close to them but fall shy somewhere in the 70-90 zone. Then they pullback a little and repeat the process several times until they have shaken out the bulls and lured in enough bears to squeeze up to that level... which is then commonly pierced through by 10-20 points. Will they do the same this time around too? Only time will tell I guess.

For trades I just don't see one as there needs to be some kind of up and down action happen before the technicals can work properly. Plus counting waves here isn't much help either as while most likely yesterdays move up was a wave 3 of some degree it's still unknown if it has ended or not? So today is just a day to watch I guess as while I think we are close to a top and pullback it might not happen until tomorrow or later in the week. I think the bulls are just going to hold their ground today and let the bears burn time on their put options. It's looking like a boring day so far. Best of luck.

P.S.  I just went back to look at a prior post I did on March 27th and on the chart I have us in a C wave up of a B wave.  That seemed to have played out yesterday, so maybe just have some brain fog this morning since I haven't had my coffee yet?

ES Morning Update March 27th 2019

The bulls are off to a great start this Monday morning with futures up about 20 points or so. It's right up near the prior high on March 21st so basically it's a double top right now. The question is... will it stop here or push up through it and go higher? Most of the time any double top will stop the bulls on the first attempt, it's triple tops that don't always hold. And I've noticed that double tops that are so close to each other time wise (only 11 calendar days), seem to hold better too.

Then we have to look at how long this rally has been going on to see if it's near it's final end... which I'd have to stay "yes", it's in the last series of waves up. But that doesn't mean it will collapse right away. More then likely it will be a rounded top that takes weeks to months to tired out and final produce a large correction again. But seeing some 50-100 point pullbacks (SPX) is not out of the question and should start happening soon. Dip buyers will continue to come in and buy each one up until such point where the bulls just can go higher then whatever the prior high was. We are not even close to that period yet.

But we are close to seeing a 50-100 point drop, like it could happen before this week ends. Short term though we usually don't see much happen on Mondays but I'll be watching to see if the bulls can push through this double top or not today. My guess is that they don't and that they pullback small tomorrow, then back up Wednesday to try again, and then down on Thurs/Fri for that pullback. The high on Wednesday could be a lower top or a slight pierce through this double top area from March 21st... no way to know for sure?

My guess is based on this strong move up this morning being some kind of wave 3 that should have a small wave 4 down (possibly Tuesday?) and 5th wave up to end it (maybe Wednesday?)... which again could end short or pierce through the prior recent high by a few points. This is all just a best guess. I'm hoping the charts will tell me something (like negative divergences, etc...) but of course they don't always works as the market is extremely manipulated. Technicals in the charts and wave counts can help but they do not work on a "stand alone" basis. You still need other things too. Anyway, let's see if the market holds this level and goes sideways all day, as that wouldn't surprise me one bit. Wait.... this just in! The market is going to crash today! April Fools...

Yesterday was a little crazy with a pop higher at the open that faded and rolled over after about an hour, to then be followed by another rally into the end of the day. But these moves are all done on light volume, not a good sign of a strong rally in my opinion. Meaning that it does not feel like they have squeezed any shorts out as volume would certainly increase if that were to trigger. Still though, the market continues to grind higher inch by inch. It's hard too be a bull or bear right now as there's really not any clear direction.

Yes, I'm more bullish here then bearish, but not by some huge amount, and not with enough confidence to go long. It's more of a "wait and see" market for me right now. Eventually we'll see a nice setup. It will either find a final top that I can short, or it will do a tricky move one day with a gap down that puts in a bottom that I can go long at.

There's still a "possible" FP from several weeks back that suggests a drop to the 2750's is coming. I'd have to go back and find it but I think it was for 275.68 on the SPY. It would make sense for a final drop to happen as well because from the top last week to the bottom this week it's pretty clear that it's some kind of wave A down and B up.

So when this B up finishes there should be a drop for that C down to finish this move... which might just be at that FP level? I feel like time is running out for the bulls but closing this month out (and quarter) on a very large percentage gain is likely the plan. So any down move for that C wave probably isn't going to start today since it's the last day of the month. Next week though there should be some kind of top appear and I hope I can catch it before it heads south. Have a great weekend.

Last night the futures were down as much as 15 points but this morning they are pretty much flat. So I'm still thinking we go up first to squeeze out the shorts before any bigger drop happens. It's not something I put money on as I'd call it a 60/40 odds setup in favor of the bulls. I really don't want to risk money on such low odds as I'd prefer 75% at minimum and 80%+ as ideal. But those setups with such high odds don't come along very often, so I do a lot of waiting unfortunately. However, with so much time spent in this sideways range-bound trading zone I have to think there will be a squeeze on the bears before any real pullback happens.

Now if the bulls would have just went up quickly and hit some important level top (say 2850 for example) and quickly reversed then they would have trapped the bulls and a sell off could have happened. But they didn't do that as they took their sweet time grinding up a little each day for the last month or so with some short lived pullbacks along the way. That kind of action is a sign of slow and steady distribution at a topping area by the big boys, any moves like that almost never produce a fast and meaningful drop right afterwards. Anyway, back to the short term, which is still choppy and hard too figure out on a wave count bias, but I'm sticking with up first and then down. Have a bless day on this beautiful Earth that God created for us.

Not much going on this morning from the looks of the futures but the last 2 days could have produced an A wave up and B down of some degree. The B down could still be in play today but it's trying to hold and turn back up, so a C wave might be next on the agenda. Wave counting is always just a "best guess" when trying to use it for forecasting the future. The bigger picture wave counts are usually easier to get correct but short term ones are quite hard. So I look for technicals too as well as what's going on for that week (FOMC meetings, Monthly Options Expiration, Holidays, Big News Events, etc...) to help me try and figure it all out. This week is the last week of both the month of March and the best quarter on record for percentage gains in a very, very long time.

Therefore it makes sense that the big boys will want to write this down in their books to show off and be proud of themselves... plus use it to advertise of course too. That could be one of the reasons we've not seen much selling going on as they all are holding long until this quarter ends, and then re-evaluate the market and it's potential to keep going north or if odds favor a large pullback (which of course they would want to avoid riding down and therefore would want to sell some up here in this zone before it happens).

On the short term I'll be watching to see if we can get some ABC move up where there's negative divergence on the 60 minute chart to give the move better odds of a move down starting afterwards. This might happen into the close today or tomorrow but I doubt if it drags out into Friday. By then I'd just call the wave count wrong as it would be way too sloppy looking to figure out.

Right now though it does look like an A wave down started from the high last week and then a B up start this Monday at the low. This B up subdivided with its' A up into the high yesterday and the drop midday making the B down. So again, "if" the market can carve out a C up into tomorrow (that makes a lower high then last week) then that ABC move should end the larger B up and setup a C down afterwards.

I'll believe it when I see it as the bulls are so tricky that I doubt if they will like it play out so obvious. In fact that larger A down last week subdivided into a smaller ABC down as well, but the A down was about 40 points, then B up was 30 points and C down was 35 points... and that is certainly NOT a normal C wave as they are supposed to be larger then the A wave. Anyway, that's all I have for today, just some "speculation" on what "might" happen. Happy Hump Day.

So far the market looks "on path" to rally some early in the week as discussed yesterday, which was a "basing" day as the market closed about flat at the end. Today though we see the future up over 10 points already so hopefully this holds and grinds up a little high again tomorrow and maybe early Thursday too? It's holding a rising trendline but still looks like a bear flag to me. I don't really have any upside target for this multi-day rally but instead I'd just prefer for it to continue a slow grind up and make that nice looking bear flag. But the last move up should be a squeeze day that doesn't go higher then the high last week but high enough to lure in more longs expecting a breakout and scare out bears. Not much else to add to this mornings post. It's just a waiting game now I believe. Patience.