The bulls are off to a great start this Monday morning with futures up about 20 points or so. It's right up near the prior high on March 21st so basically it's a double top right now. The question is... will it stop here or push up through it and go higher? Most of the time any double top will stop the bulls on the first attempt, it's triple tops that don't always hold. And I've noticed that double tops that are so close to each other time wise (only 11 calendar days), seem to hold better too.

Then we have to look at how long this rally has been going on to see if it's near it's final end... which I'd have to stay "yes", it's in the last series of waves up. But that doesn't mean it will collapse right away. More then likely it will be a rounded top that takes weeks to months to tired out and final produce a large correction again. But seeing some 50-100 point pullbacks (SPX) is not out of the question and should start happening soon. Dip buyers will continue to come in and buy each one up until such point where the bulls just can go higher then whatever the prior high was. We are not even close to that period yet.

But we are close to seeing a 50-100 point drop, like it could happen before this week ends. Short term though we usually don't see much happen on Mondays but I'll be watching to see if the bulls can push through this double top or not today. My guess is that they don't and that they pullback small tomorrow, then back up Wednesday to try again, and then down on Thurs/Fri for that pullback. The high on Wednesday could be a lower top or a slight pierce through this double top area from March 21st... no way to know for sure?

My guess is based on this strong move up this morning being some kind of wave 3 that should have a small wave 4 down (possibly Tuesday?) and 5th wave up to end it (maybe Wednesday?)... which again could end short or pierce through the prior recent high by a few points. This is all just a best guess. I'm hoping the charts will tell me something (like negative divergences, etc...) but of course they don't always works as the market is extremely manipulated. Technicals in the charts and wave counts can help but they do not work on a "stand alone" basis. You still need other things too. Anyway, let's see if the market holds this level and goes sideways all day, as that wouldn't surprise me one bit. Wait.... this just in! The market is going to crash today! April Fools...

Yesterday was a little crazy with a pop higher at the open that faded and rolled over after about an hour, to then be followed by another rally into the end of the day. But these moves are all done on light volume, not a good sign of a strong rally in my opinion. Meaning that it does not feel like they have squeezed any shorts out as volume would certainly increase if that were to trigger. Still though, the market continues to grind higher inch by inch. It's hard too be a bull or bear right now as there's really not any clear direction.

Yes, I'm more bullish here then bearish, but not by some huge amount, and not with enough confidence to go long. It's more of a "wait and see" market for me right now. Eventually we'll see a nice setup. It will either find a final top that I can short, or it will do a tricky move one day with a gap down that puts in a bottom that I can go long at.

There's still a "possible" FP from several weeks back that suggests a drop to the 2750's is coming. I'd have to go back and find it but I think it was for 275.68 on the SPY. It would make sense for a final drop to happen as well because from the top last week to the bottom this week it's pretty clear that it's some kind of wave A down and B up.

So when this B up finishes there should be a drop for that C down to finish this move... which might just be at that FP level? I feel like time is running out for the bulls but closing this month out (and quarter) on a very large percentage gain is likely the plan. So any down move for that C wave probably isn't going to start today since it's the last day of the month. Next week though there should be some kind of top appear and I hope I can catch it before it heads south. Have a great weekend.

Last night the futures were down as much as 15 points but this morning they are pretty much flat. So I'm still thinking we go up first to squeeze out the shorts before any bigger drop happens. It's not something I put money on as I'd call it a 60/40 odds setup in favor of the bulls. I really don't want to risk money on such low odds as I'd prefer 75% at minimum and 80%+ as ideal. But those setups with such high odds don't come along very often, so I do a lot of waiting unfortunately. However, with so much time spent in this sideways range-bound trading zone I have to think there will be a squeeze on the bears before any real pullback happens.

Now if the bulls would have just went up quickly and hit some important level top (say 2850 for example) and quickly reversed then they would have trapped the bulls and a sell off could have happened. But they didn't do that as they took their sweet time grinding up a little each day for the last month or so with some short lived pullbacks along the way. That kind of action is a sign of slow and steady distribution at a topping area by the big boys, any moves like that almost never produce a fast and meaningful drop right afterwards. Anyway, back to the short term, which is still choppy and hard too figure out on a wave count bias, but I'm sticking with up first and then down. Have a bless day on this beautiful Earth that God created for us.

Not much going on this morning from the looks of the futures but the last 2 days could have produced an A wave up and B down of some degree. The B down could still be in play today but it's trying to hold and turn back up, so a C wave might be next on the agenda. Wave counting is always just a "best guess" when trying to use it for forecasting the future. The bigger picture wave counts are usually easier to get correct but short term ones are quite hard. So I look for technicals too as well as what's going on for that week (FOMC meetings, Monthly Options Expiration, Holidays, Big News Events, etc...) to help me try and figure it all out. This week is the last week of both the month of March and the best quarter on record for percentage gains in a very, very long time.

Therefore it makes sense that the big boys will want to write this down in their books to show off and be proud of themselves... plus use it to advertise of course too. That could be one of the reasons we've not seen much selling going on as they all are holding long until this quarter ends, and then re-evaluate the market and it's potential to keep going north or if odds favor a large pullback (which of course they would want to avoid riding down and therefore would want to sell some up here in this zone before it happens).

On the short term I'll be watching to see if we can get some ABC move up where there's negative divergence on the 60 minute chart to give the move better odds of a move down starting afterwards. This might happen into the close today or tomorrow but I doubt if it drags out into Friday. By then I'd just call the wave count wrong as it would be way too sloppy looking to figure out.

Right now though it does look like an A wave down started from the high last week and then a B up start this Monday at the low. This B up subdivided with its' A up into the high yesterday and the drop midday making the B down. So again, "if" the market can carve out a C up into tomorrow (that makes a lower high then last week) then that ABC move should end the larger B up and setup a C down afterwards.

I'll believe it when I see it as the bulls are so tricky that I doubt if they will like it play out so obvious. In fact that larger A down last week subdivided into a smaller ABC down as well, but the A down was about 40 points, then B up was 30 points and C down was 35 points... and that is certainly NOT a normal C wave as they are supposed to be larger then the A wave. Anyway, that's all I have for today, just some "speculation" on what "might" happen. Happy Hump Day.

So far the market looks "on path" to rally some early in the week as discussed yesterday, which was a "basing" day as the market closed about flat at the end. Today though we see the future up over 10 points already so hopefully this holds and grinds up a little high again tomorrow and maybe early Thursday too? It's holding a rising trendline but still looks like a bear flag to me. I don't really have any upside target for this multi-day rally but instead I'd just prefer for it to continue a slow grind up and make that nice looking bear flag. But the last move up should be a squeeze day that doesn't go higher then the high last week but high enough to lure in more longs expecting a breakout and scare out bears. Not much else to add to this mornings post. It's just a waiting game now I believe. Patience.

Last Friday certainly took me by surprise as I thought it was going to be a typical boring sideways consolidation day to put everyone to sleep. But it was nothing near it the market dropped more in that one day then we've seen in a month or two. Fears of a recession are popping back up now as the 10 year treasuries dropped lower then the 3 month one's, which has resulted in a recession starting within a year later every time going back a 100 years according to some. I'm going to include two video's here by others that explain better then I do. But the bottom line is that unless this condition can be reversed quickly the odds of a bull market starting after the coming low for my FP target are not good.

I still firmly believe the FP I have will be the low for the year, but since this statistic points to a year out before any recession normally begins it's still possible to put in this FP low for this year and rally some, then next year start the recession. And lets also keep in mind that we've had recessions before that simply produce a range-bound market between some high zone and low zone. So it doesn't mean for certain that we are going to crash and go into a full blown depression. However, I do think it's important to continue following this situation to see if the government can reverse it... and quickly before it's too late to change the odds. Moving on to the short term.

This week I suspect we'll have some type of attempt back up early on (like Monday to Wednesday), but if the bulls fail to take out last weeks high I'd expect a larger drop to happen Wednesday to Friday, which the 2750's area would be the target low. From a wave count point of view the move down on Friday would be the A wave, then the move up into mid-week would be the B wave. Finally would be a C wave down into Friday. After that... who knows? I'd assume another rally attempt back up in April would follow. This rally up from the December lows has been super powerful so I don't expect it to give up and drop straight to my FP on the first down move attempt. There should be several more rallies I'd think as the bulls rarely give up that easily. Anyway, we'll just take it one day at a time. Happy Monday.

Another tricky move by the bulls yesterday as the rally up surprised most and went further then many expected. The only good thing for me was I didn't get caught shorting it on the way up, but I never went long either and missed a great move. As far as wave counts... they seem to be wrong the A down was about 40 points, then that FOMC squeeze up was 30 points (the B wave) and the C down was only 35 points, so does that even work? I don't know?

Elliottwave never seems to work in forecasting the next move correctly as far as I can tell, but I still use it with other indicators to assist me. Anyway, as far as today goes I simply don't know? I have zero clues on the direction. It's looking like it's going to open down but will it continue all day like the rally up yesterday or will it get reversed after the open and go back up? From a historical point of view most strong up day are met with a pause day afterwards. Meaning it chops sideways in a tight range to consolidate the prior days gains.

Then there's the fact that today ends the week as it's Friday and many times nothing much goes on all day. Mondays seem to be the same way many times as Tuesday to Thursday is where all the big action appears the most. But those are old patterns or rules that might not apply too much anymore with all trading being done electronically versus having real people on the floor of some stock exchange executing the orders. Still though, real people are placing trades, even if it's sitting at their computer screen and not using a phone to call a floor broker.

So I have to think that those "real people" still come into to work on Monday a little tired from the weekend and need some time to get caught up on emails, drink some coffee, study the market, and plan their trading week. Then by Friday they wrap it all up by closing out positions and try to sneak out early for the weekend. So whatever happens early this morning is probably going to be the only action today as the light volume should take the market into pause mode into the close I suspect, which is usually sideways to slight up.

My best guess is that the weakness this morning is just traders from yesterday closing out longs and that it will be over with in a few hours and the market will float back up the rest of the day. I'd be shocked if the entire rally up from yesterday got erased today on an equal move back down. I guess anything is possible but it's not something I can see in advance and so I won't chance shorting or going long today as I don't have any high odds setup for either direction... just "best guesses" based on past "patterns", and that's not something I want to bet real money on. Have a very blessed weekend.

Yesterday's FOMC produced a nice fast squeeze up that was most like some kind of B wave with the A wave down starting the day before and ending midday before the meeting. Then before the close that strong bounce rolled over and fell sharply into the close to completely reverse it all but stayed a hair higher then the midday low. Was that the start of the C wave down or does the B wave up still have more to go?

If you ask me that yesterday afterhours I'd said that odds favored the B wave subdividing into 3 waves as the futures were up about 8 points then, so it looked like today was going to open up strong but this morning you can clearly see that the 8 point rally got reversed completely and we are now about to open red this morning. The futures also went lower then the low yesterday, so I have to conclude now that the B wave up was just one wave and will not subdivide. That doesn't mean we can't rally some today but odds favor the market being in a C wave down right now.

We know it's common for them to subdivide into 5 waves so it's possible that the drop yesterday into the close and continuation this morning is just the wave 1 down of that C wave and any bounce back up today is a wave 2 of the C down. Catching it at the top of that wave 2 is the goal for those looking to short it. Since the A down went about 40 points from the 2858 top the midday low of 2818 yesterday, and the B up ended around 2848 the C down so go to 2808 if C = A, or deeper of course as C's commonly do. I suspect we go deeper but that's just a guess of course. After this move down completes I'm expecting another rally back up to start for a second attempt at taking out the recent 2858 high. Good Luck as always.

More grinding up again this morning it seems. This is of course done during an FOMC week as we certainly don't want to see the Fed's get blamed for a down market do we... LOL. In the past I've noticed that "turns" (down) don't happen until a few days after an FOMC meeting, and are blamed on some other event. The weekend after an event is commonly used to release some bad news so the next week starts going down.

So while a top could show up this Thursday or Friday this early market strength makes me think they will wait until next Monday. Why? Because usually there is some kind of small weakness the day before an FOMC meeting to start the series of shake out waves. Basically a series of wave 1's down and wave 2's up repeatedly during the entire FOMC week to end the last one on Friday and therefore allow the wave 3 down to start the following Monday.

Since it's looking strong today (at least for the open) I suspect those series of waves will start after the meeting this Thursday and Friday and best short will appear next Monday. It's more of a gut call here based on patterns I've noticed during prior FOMC weeks. As for today... I have little to give you. It's starting off bullish and will likely end that way too. Good Luck.

Welcome to FOMC week where the market does a lot of nothing until the Fed's speak... which is this Wednesday at 2pm EST. But a short-able top is very near, so hang in there bears. In the past the market was held up until 1-2 days after the FOMC as the Fed's don't want to take the blame for anything bad but instead just brag about the good they do (which isn't much in my humble opinion). So writing a long post this morning is really worthless. I'm not expecting much to happen until after the meeting is over with, so I'll likely be in and out of the chatroom through out the day today and tomorrow doing something productive around the house.

The bulls are up against some tough resistance overhead in the 2850-2880 zone from many angles. I really doubt if they can push this market up much more. All the bears have pretty much been squeezed out as shown by on this chart (courtesy of Twitter @OntheMoney) where volume dries up in the price zone above. There are other things too that says a pullback is very near, like the negative divergence now on the daily chart as well as Elliottwave counts suggesting we are in a final wave up of some degree.

Putting it simple... this week is the most likely week to top out and start a move down of 100+ points or so. But again I don't expect a lot until after the FOMC, so enjoy the warming weather until then if you can. For me it's getting up in the 50's early this week and 60's later in the week, so I'm ready for spring to come and winter to leave. Hopefully the bears are waking up soon too as I'm ready for a trip down south. Have a great day.

More grind today again it seems... at least here at the open. I'm not expecting much to happen today as again this is Quad Witching week and I'm sure the market makers have already picked the level where maximum damage will be done to the bulls and bears both, so the "pin" level is near. The SPY dropped about a $1 today to adjust for the quarterly dividends, so it's about flat while the futures are up 10 points or so. This is normal and happens every quarter. Anyway, today looks like another boring light volume day, so I'm not going to write a long post here. Next week though should be very interesting and a lot more exciting. Have a great weekend.

More grind up yesterday was the name of the game. This morning the futures are about flat so not much clues there on where the market wants to go next. And the prior 2817 high from a couple of weeks ago was taken out yesterday by a few points... which makes me think everyone shorted it, and that says "squeeze coming" to me. Maybe it rolls over here some but usually it's never this easy to just short the double top.

Most of the time they fall shy of hitting it by at least 5 points if not 10 points... or they run up through it to clear out the stops, which is what I think is coming before any meaningful pullback starts. And, the longer they hang out around the double top zone the more powerful the squeeze. Instead of only 5-10 points over it on the first hit and reversal, which could have happened yesterday but didn't, they might now need 15-30 points higher to run out all the bear stops.

It's boiling down to some "hold the zone" manipulation right now until this Quad Witching Expiration is over with tomorrow. If all goes well today and Friday won't see too much movement up or down and then Monday or Tuesday we'll see that final squeeze higher to end this long rally up from Christmas and start a playable correction.

Again, I do not expect it to take out that low last year but instead to make a higher low and then resume the bull market back up. And, I'm still 50/50 on whether this coming move down is going to start that correction or if it's just as small pullback and then back up quickly into April or May... and then do the big correction down for that higher low.

Anyway, for today I don't know what's it's going to do. I have no clues for the direction, and I already told you what my thoughts are for the next two days... but again, that's just guessing at best. Sometimes I get lots of evidence that gives me the next move with high odds certainty, but today isn't one of them. Have a blessed day.

Futures are up again this morning as the grind up continues. It's hard too be sure if the small pullback in the afternoon yesterday was a tiny wave 4 down or not? It's pretty obvious that the rally up on Monday was a tiny wave 3 of some degree (Micro?) but did it end or not? If the small drop yesterday was a wave 4 then we should be in the tiny wave 5 up this morning.

Catching this top exactly will not be easy, which is why I like to wait for the entire 5 wave series to end first and then let the 1 down and 2 up happen so I can see clearly that the 2 up isn't going to make a higher high then the one put in on the final 5th wave up, so that's where I want to short it. Yeah, I'll miss the exact top but better to do that then to be wrong shorting a 5th wave up that keeps extending higher and high with you trapped short.

A double top from last Mondays high of 2817 is near but I'm really not thinking it will make it up that high. From past experience I've noticed that the first attempt to get up to a double top is usually the one that falls shy of it by just enough points to make the bears miss it that were waiting to short... which is probably in the 5 points lower and 5 points higher area. For me to risk a short on this I'd want to see the open get sold into (the possible end of the 5th wave up and the start of the 1st wave down?), and then it bottom and turn back up into the close to make a slightly lower high (then the open) at the close today.

That "could" be the wave 1 down and 2 up that starts the next series of waves down. I say "could" as you are never really sure with EW counts in advance as the market subdivides many times into another smaller series of waves. But considering how close we are now to a double top I not expecting another subdivision to occur. In short, I'm "on the lookout" for a short today. It's not some guarantee on this one and it's not one with super high odds either. It's basically on some EW counts, resistance overhead (technical analysis) and a little bit of "gut feeling". So don't hold me to the fire if this forecast is wrong, but I'll be taking a short if the criteria s I've mentioned all play out today. Happy Hump Day.

The bulls did indeed win yesterday as they rallied hard all day long. Glad I was leaning bullish and not bearish... LOL! So what does it mean for today? Usually "consolidation" happens after such a large move up. And since the futures are now back up 5 (was pretty much flat a few minutes ago), and were even up 6 points or so last night, I'd have to think today we'll see mostly sideways movement with some more upside yet to come later in the day or even on Wednesday. It's not something I'd try to trade here as there's no strong setup yet for the bears, nor any guarantee for more upside on the bulls.

The big move was yesterday and today and tomorrow the bulls will battle hard for extra ground. It's pretty clear they want to revisit the prior high last week around 2817, which I don't know if they will bust through it or top out just below it... but "try they will". Regardless of whether they fail to get through it or do pierce it another pullback is near. This one should be bigger then the recent 90-100 point drop we had last week, so that's what I'm focused on right now.

I suspect it will appear by this Thursday or Friday. I'd like to see the bulls grind up a little today and tomorrow with positive closes on the daily candle to give the bears the best chance of a drop. I don't want to see the bulls take a day off and let the market close down as that would reset their chart enough for another 2-4 days of upward movement. Remember that a red close in this case is like giving the bulls a first down in a game of football. Keep them pushing but not gaining much ground is the name of the game for the bears. Let them gain small today for their 3rd down and small tomorrow for the 4th down. Then they have to turn over the ball to the bears. Anyway, that's my thoughts for today. Go Bulls!

This week is a Quad Witching week where 4 different classes of assets expire, so it could be a wild one. In fact it's already starting off on a strange note as the ES Futures are up +6 and the DOW futures are down -130 or so. Certainly not the norm to see one up and one down. So who knows where we end this week but I'm still leaning more bullish then bearish. Today I don't have a clue about where we are going. So I'll just keep this update short and add anything new in the free chatroom through out the day if I see anything. Welcome to Monday.

Futures are down again this morning so I'm glad I waited on that long I was thinking about taking. But I suspect this is the last down move before a rally starts back up into next week, so it could be a buying opportunity. There's also an upside FP from 8:16 am this morning, so that should be hit at some point today I believe.  I don't expect a lot today on the upside but I'm certainly leaning toward today putting in the bottom and some kind of rally up happening.

Reading twitter yesterday one of the people I follow pointed out that the TRIN was at +2 on Wednesday and the last time that occurred was Christmas Eve, so a bottom is very likely near. Of course that doesn't mean we are going to rally up a 1000+ DOW points like the day after Christmas did, but it's signaling that a rally is coming. If not today then Monday, but with that early morning FP I'd have to think it will get started today.

Maybe it only puts in a DOJI on the daily candle but that bottoming tail should be enough to keep the market going back up next week. Some others think we could go back up to 2860... I don't know? But it's certainly possible to at least "double top" this past Mondays high. I pointed out in the chatroom yesterday about the "lack of" a negative divergence on the daily chart for the MACD's, so a slightly higher high in the market and lower high on the MACD's would create one... which is why I can't rule out a move up over Mondays high next week.

Will it be to 2860? Don't know but next week is the monthly options expiration week, and that's usually a bullish week. It was very consistent in the past but since the introduction of the weekly options it's not as strong of a pattern, but still possible. For those that used too follow Danny Riley of Mr. TopStep he always called it the "Thursday/Friday low before OPEX". This was a common pattern the market makers did whereas they would run the market down on the 2nd week of the month into a low and then ram it back up into the 3rd Friday to make all the puts they sold expire worthless.

But the addition of the weekly options in the last couple of years has skewed that pattern to where it works just sometimes and not "all the time" as in the past when there was only the monthly options available. However, they still have larger volume on the monthly options so it's still something to be aware of since we have been going down all week long during the week prior to that monthly expiration.

In any case, that's my thoughts for today. Have a great weekend. P.S. It's supposed to get up to 62 degrees this Sunday where I live and was only 38 degrees yesterday... but what do I wake up to this morning? Several inches of snow... LOL! Have a great one and God Bless you and your loved ones.

Looks like the chop I expected after the Monday drop is going to continue today as well. The market has been playing pin pong between the high and low put in on Monday but at some point soon one level or the other should break... preferably the low as it's hard for me to even think about going long up this high in the sky already. But if the bulls drifted down lower for several more days (closing down on each one) I'd start thinking that they were working off the massively overbought conditions and were planning to make another run higher again. I hope that's not the case though as I'd rather short this fat pig instead. But that requires some more chop I think with some positive closes too.

Basically we want to see the bulls make some type of ABC up pattern from the Monday low to put in a lower high and exhaust themselves while doing it. Or a sideways bear flag would work too... just chop again between the Monday low (a pierce is fine but nothing big) and Tuesday high, which was about a 50% up move of the entire drop on Monday. Looking back at the September 21st, 2018 high and drop it took until October 3rd (12 calendar days) before it finally broke-down hard and fell off a cliff. This past Monday was the 4th so 12 days forward is the 16th of March, and a Saturday.

Next week is the monthly options expiration week too. So if history repeats we could expand this zone a little lower to the downside and then run back up for a double top that following Monday the 18th (or Friday the 15th) and then drop big afterwards similar to the October 3rd top and drop. From an "manipulation" point of view this makes perfect sense as the monthly options expiration next Friday should have the most open interest and therefore the market makers will have the most reason to "pin it" where the most puts and calls expire worthless.

Therefore, thinking outside the box here and just looking at history for clues, we could drop one more time (like tomorrow or Monday) to make a C wave down, whereas Monday was the A down and we are in the choppy and sloppy B wave up now. That ABC down could be followed by another ABC up into next Friday for the options expiration pin. Then starting after the 18th the big drop happens. The first ABC down would be a larger A down, then the second ABC up would be a larger B up... and finally the larger C down would start after that. Wishing thinking, but possible.

So far, so good. The market is just chopping sideways for the most part as expected. How long will this last is the question of course. My guess is that it will end today and tomorrow we'll drop again. But I'd like to see it rally up a little more today first and close firmly green. Then it would look like a completed ABC move up from the low on Monday. The next move down isn't likely to be the big drop though as I fully expect it to be bought up as the "buy the dippers" come in looking at the pullback as a opportunity to go long.

There could be several of these drops and rips going into next week to fool bears and bulls alike. I tend to think the biggest drop won't start until after the monthly options expiration is over with next Friday. So the week starting on the 18th should be the big move if this market follows the previous patterns... and I think it will. I see no reason for SkyNet to make it easy this time around by just dropping hard from the first top. I fully expect it to do the dance up and down several times to trick both sides before the real move down starts.

So if we end this move up at the close today then tomorrow should be down, but if that's another one day drop like Monday it could end the first series of waves down as well and then another series of waves back up should appear going into next week. I'm not a Elliottwave expert but the market does move in waves, and I'm just trying to guess which ones will form before they happen to the best of my abilities. Good luck.

Finally! We got our first drop! Yesterdays pop and drop was what I've been looking for to happen. It's the sign that the big boys are unloading more shares faster as they know the next big correction is closer. You'll notice the volume picked up too in the SPY, so this tells me insiders (who have been selling small for several weeks now) know about when the market is going to drop hard and are trying to get out before it happens.

Today, tomorrow, Thursday and maybe Friday we should see the market try to float back up... but I suspect it will again be sold into. However, I don't think it will be big volume again like yesterday but more like what we've seen over the past several weeks. This may continue into next week too, if it follows prior patterns. It's really hard too pick the exact next day they will let the bottom fall out again but it's coming... the when part is the tough question.

I don't see any danger of it today, probably not tomorrow either. But Thursday forward I'd say the market is on borrowed time as it tries to make a higher high again. Failure isn't an option for the bulls as it will increase the odds greatly that another large drop will follow. The "when" part is always the hardest to figure out. I just try to guess by counting waves and looking at divergences the best I can.

So at best we'll see an ABC up with many or all of each of those waves subdividing into 3 or 5 wave patterns. Most of the time it's just the C wave that subdivides into 5 waves but the A does too every now and then. My best guess is that we top out by this Friday with a lower high (then yesterday) and next week starts the big drop. But, since next week is the monthly options expiration week there could be some tricky downs and back ups to "pin" the SPY at max pain for option writers.

Looking at previously patterns just now I see that after the first big drop (like yesterday) there was about 2-3 days of chop, then another large drop (this Friday?), then more chop the week of the monthly options expiration. After that (the 4th week of the month) is when larger drops happened. As for today I don't expect much... chop most likely. Tomorrow will probably be the same. Thursday and Friday is when things could get interesting. And for anyone having a hard time signing up for the free chatroom just email me directly and I'll manually set you up. Red (at) RedDragonLeo (dot) com.