Well, we may or may not have topped? I say that because another new FP was found and it's at 640.44 on the SPY. That's only about 200 SPX/ES points lower now, so it's possible that we might see some crazy move happen where we drop to that level right after the FOMC meeting and then reverse back up on Thursday into Friday where we could (I know this is crazy) reach 6800 on the ES to take out the stops above the current all time high of 6696... and then we fall off a cliff next week. Below is that new FP on the SPY...

Now I said yesterday that I could go over all the prior FP's (at least the last year or so of them), and that's what I've done in the chart below. You'll see that most all of the FP's produce a nice "turn" up or down after they are hit, but a couple of them the market just "paused" and after some time it continued in the same direction. One of them was definitely a failed FP as it never hit and "paused" or "turned", which is the one in the March-April drop. There wasn't any reaction at it, so it failed for sure.

Currently we have went past the 655.66 FP and appear to have topped at 662.65, which isn't that much when you look at it on the chart above but point-wise it's a lot... especially when you short at the FP and have to ride out those points against you. I'm not sure whether or not to label it a failed FP as we have started to go down some now. I'll need to give it more time to see if it turns out to produce a nice turn or not.

If we drop to the new FP of 640.44 then I'll label it a success, and then if we rally back up to 6800 or so into this Friday (I don't have any FP for that target) and rollover again I'll be looking for the 588.79 FP to be hit over the next two week. Or, we just by pass the 640.44 FP completely and continue lower all week... or maybe we bounce small from it for a B wave up with it being the A down? But I have to think that if we get a fast 200 point drop today we will see a very strong rally from it tomorrow and into Friday... that's "if" too many bears are short.

If this the drop catches the bears sleeping and traps the bulls then we should only go sideways to slightly up on Thursday/Friday after hitting the 640.44 FP. Lot's of possible moves here, so just be ready for something tricky. Oh... the other possible move is to go up to the 6800 target after the FOMC an into Thursday or Friday. But that 640.44 new FP means something, so it has to come into play some how I think. We'll see.

Have an blessed day.

This is the week where the market should start down, and accelerate into the expected low window of 9/22 - 9/24. The FP was hit last week and pierced a little as it commonly does. All eyes will be on the FOMC this week, so we probably won't see too much on the downside until after the meeting. I still think we are going to drop hard this week and next but it should start slowly. Below is a chart of the SPY with my thoughts...

If I'm wrong we'll start another powerful leg up to 6700-6800 after the meeting instead of tanking. But everything tells me we are going down, not up. The cycles point to a down move the next 2 weeks, and I have no reason to think this time will fail. The "how much" is the hard part to know, so I guess it's possible that it's really small, but considering how overbought we are I just don't see that happening.

Have an blessed day.

The big Fake Print from December of last yesterday was hit and pierced yesterday.  Now we wait and see. Ideally the market chops in a slow move down into the FOMC next week where everyone thinks it's a bottom and a rate cut from them is bullish.  But it should not be bullish as the cycles says we go down regardless of what is said or done.

I think we will drop hard in a fast 4-6 day move down with the FP of 588.79 on the SPY as a very possible   I don't have anything else to add as I've covered everything many times this week and next week.

My thoughts and prayers continue to go out to Charlie Kirk's family.  I know he's in Heaven with Jesus but it's still unreal to know he's gone as he was just too young.  I guess the deep state demonrats are happy as Charlie was making a real impact with bring kids back to God and common sense.  May God send Angels to his wife and kids.

Monday and Tuesday were choppy sideways day, but into the close yesterday (and afterhours) we saw a push higher to "almost" breakout to a new high. Clearly the market is teasing bulls and bears both as it dances between support and resistance. At some point it will breakout and go up and hit the 655.66 FP on the SPY where we should top out at. Will that be today? I don't know, but if so I'll be shorting it. If not, then I'll do nothing as even if we go back down I still don't think it will be a lot and will find support lower to bottom at by tomorrow or Friday. The move down from the all time high of 6541.75 to the low of 6452 might be an A wave of some smaller degree and the rally up from there, to the current high, is just a B wave. That suggests a C down is coming next, but I think it will hold above the 6360-70 area of support, which then sets up the last rally next week into the FOMC on Wednesday where we should hit the upside FP on the SPY. Of course I'm writing this post Tuesday night and by the morning I could wake up to see a breakout and a run up for the FP. Therefore this all assumes that we don't breakout. If we do then the wave count is wrong. I'm only guessing that we'll hit the upside FP next week, but I could be wrong and it hit this week. Patience is the key here as I know it's going to hit soon, and I'm sitting on my hands until it does.

Have an blessed day.

Games, games and more games. The market (SkyNet?) clearly knows the final high before the big drop is the 655.66 FP on the SPY and it keeps teasing everyone by getting close but stopping short by a few points. So far the high has come in on the 5th/8th as I guessed at on my September 3rd morning update.

A low should be around the 11th this week (roughly of course) and then we go back up into the next turn window of the 15th-17th... but the 17th is the FOMC, so that's most likely going to be the top. If they front run it though, and hit the FP beforehand, the meeting should be blamed for the selloff. The market loves to inflict maximum pain on both the bulls and the bears, and if it waiting until the 17th to start the selloff the down move will be over with very quickly as the expected bottom is between the 22nd-24th, which isn't much time from the 17th. I'd love to see it play out like this personally as it will create the most bearishness due to the speed of the drop.

And that will of course be even more powerful for the bulls as all those bears will get a mega squeeze put on them after the low is put in. I don't know what the low will be but my focus will be on the dates where a low should happen. If it reaches the 588.79 FP on the SPY from 6/24/2025 then I'll be super happy and will go long will both feet and hands. The move up should be explosive and reach new all time highs again before the end of October. I think we could even reach 7000 or more by then "if" we get this scenario. If instead we decline slowly into the downside FP it will be much harder to rally that fast. We need to see the short lived flash crash type move from the 17th to the 22nd-24th for the squeeze to happen that quickly, and I think we have a pretty good chance of that playing out.

Have an blessed day.

The market grinded higher yesterday and pretty much did a double top into the close. Today we could see a breakout that rallies up (finally) to hit the FP on the SPY of 655.66, which it should piece by some small amount just like it did with the April low. Remember that the FP's I had back then were for 483.07 and 483.62 on the SPY.

Rare to get two of them but they did mark the low of the correction. The downward pressure was strong then and the pierce through those FP's resulted in a low of 479.47 on the SPY, which is roughly 40 points on the SPX/ES. If we do that again we could see the 6600 area hit, but it's been my experience that "pierces" on the upside tend to be less then "pierces" on the downside. Maybe we only do 20 points through it... I'm not sure? But when we finally hit 655.66 on the SPY it's "Go Time" for me on shorting this pig.

If it goes a little higher I'm fine with that as it shouldn't be a whole lot. If we see it today it would be a perfect trap over the weekend to keep the bulls long seeing the breakout to a new high as bullish. They will all be looking for much higher prices, but for me I trust the FP's as while I may not know the "when" part on them hitting they have proven to me to be very accurate for "turns" in the market. If hit today I'll be shorting it. I still think the first low will be around the 11th/12th next week, which will be the A wave.

Then a choppy move up into OPEX with the FED day on Wednesday being the main focus the market will have. But it should be just a B wave up and the C down into the 22nd-24th should follow. It doesn't matter what Powell does, or doesn't do. The market will find a reason to continue lower and rate cut or no rate cut will be spun as bearish. If you have been patiently waiting like me for the upside FP to short then you need to stay alert today as we might see it.

Have a great weekend.

The market held its' move up yesterday from the low on Tuesday. I don't know the "when" part but I still think we will hit the 655.66 FP before we top. Possibly it hits tomorrow or next Monday? Those dates are the most likely as the market tends to pullback into the 2nd Thursday/Friday (next week) of each month to put in some kind of low before a move up into the 3rd week of the month where OPEX is at.

Now again, I'm not looking for much on the downside next week if we get the top early next week, but it could turn out to be an A wave. Then we get a B wave up into OPEX week as the market will likely be in a choppy mode into the FOMC on Wednesday the 17th. That B wave could trick everyone thinking that if Powell does a cut the market will rally, but if we hit the 655.66 FP beforehand I have to think any rate cut will cause the nasty C wave down into the 22nd-24th where we "could" hit the 588.79 FP on the SPY? At least we should hit the 6100's I think. As for the short term, I don't have much to add. We should float higher into tomorrow or Monday where we should (hopefully) reach the 655.66 FP on the SPY.

Have an blessed day.

Horizontal support held yesterday and we rallied back up half the decline. It's hard to figure out the wave count but I suspect we ended a wave 4 of some medium degree at the 8/4 low and we have been in a final wave 5 up ever since then. It's final target should be the 655.66 FP on the SPY but it's been chopping up and down on the way up to frustrate bulls and bears alike.

Possibly the pullback yesterday was a small wave 4 inside a medium wave 5 up? Or it's just part of a small wave 3 up from that 8/4 low where medium wave 5 up likely started? I'm just guessing that the small wave 1 up ended at the 6508 high on 8/15 and the pullback from it was a small wave 2... leaving the market in a small wave 3 up now. But it could have ended at the 6523 high, I don't know?

That would be a truncated wave 3, which I don't think is likely as it's not long enough when compared to the small wave 1 up. It was from 6251 to 6508, and that's 257 points, so if small wave 3 up started from the 6364 low on 8/22 then it would have to hit 6621 for small wave 3 to equal small wave 1, and that would hit (and pierce) the 655.66 FP on the SPY, which should complete the entire move.

But, small wave 4 down and small wave 5 up would still be needed to complete medium wave 5, and large wave 5 (from the April low where it all started. I guess that's possible as there's no rule with FP's that say they can't be hit once and retested again later. Meaning we could double top basically with small wave 3 and 5 both hitting and piercing the FP. Anyway, nothing to do (at least for me) but wait as I'm not shorting until the FP is hit.

Have an blessed day.

Very frustrating to get so close to hitting the FP to mark the top to stop shy and pullback. This non-sense is designed to trick bears into thinking we are starting the much excepted correction, but this is not it. We will hit the 655.66 FP before we see a 10% correction, but I have no idea on the "when" part? I continue to just patiently watch and wait as I can't successfully swing trade this market. I will say that the week after OPEX in September is typically a bearish one. This assumes we continue to chop the next few weeks and not hit the FP this week as then the correction should already be in play going into the end of the month, so it would be a bottom. But right now it's looking like we are going to see the market continue this slow dance for awhile longer.

Have an blessed day.

I want to examine the past a little today as while (again) I never know the "when" part that any real FP gets hit they eventually hit, and a "turn" happens the majority of the time. Some turns are big and others small but turns do happen. I have to use technicals to guess at how big the turn will be and I think it's obvious to everyone now that this market is very overbought now so the turn coming should be a big one.

When you look at the chart above you can see that the two FP's on the SPY from last year that I found on the Yahoo site did finally hit, and they hit perfectly and reversed hard afterwards. I have no reason to believe that the upside FP of 655.66 isn't going to be hit either. I don't know the day, but it should be this week. Maybe before NVDA earnings this Wednesday after the close, or after it? I don't know which but once it's hit we should see the market peak and rollover for the next 2 weeks. Patience is key here and those that wait will be rewarded.

Have an blessed day.

We didn't get the flush out first and squeeze afterwards that I was hoping for unfortunately.  I would have loved to have got long on it last Friday if it would have happened.  But the market just went straight for the squeeze. That's fine with me as I've been waiting for weeks now for the FP on the SPY to get hit and it's looking like it will be hit early this week... maybe today, who's knows?

It's a big short in my opinion as my history of these big FP's (one's that are way away from the current price when they come out) are that they are pretty much guaranteed to produce a turn. The intraday FP's are hit and miss... some hit the next day and some don't do anything as the market just ignores them.

They are "late fills" in most cases when they are close to the price level the market was at a day or so prior. But FP's that are no where near the current price levels are real "fake prints" that will be hit at some point in the future. This 655.66 FP came out on December 16th, 2024 and the price of the SPY was nowhere near it at the time, so it was (and "is") a real FP.

It's finally going to get hit this week it seems and we will get a "turn" back down from it. How much is anyone's guess but I think we could pullback to the FP from June 24th, 2025... which is 588.79, and when it came out the market was in an uptrend and had not see that price since June 2nd, 2025. This mean it's NOT a "late fill", as I've never seen a late fill that was done 22 days later.

No... they are always done with 24 hours (maybe 48 hours), but never 22 days. That is a real FP in my opinion and "could" be the target for the coming pullback? Again, I don't know the "when" part on any FP's but the market is ripe for a nice correction that gets the bears all woke up again and calling for a crash. But if this move down happens fast enough it will get the charts nice and oversold and that tells me it will be the end of the down move and that last rally up to 7400+ should follow.

NVDA has earnings after the close this Wednesday, so it could be used for that last move up to the FP on the SPY... that's assuming we don't hit it beforehand as then it might be used to tank the market.  Either way, once the FP is hit it's GO TIME for the Bears as we can see a 10% pullback happen before it's all done.

Have an blessed day.

Today could be a wild day with Powell speaking at Jackson Hole this morning at 10am EST. We could see some fake out moves, and my thoughts on that is that we see a sharp drop first to retest the 8/1 low, and then a big squeeze the rest of the day and into early next week where we could see the upside FP of 655.66 on the SPY finally hit? Interestingly there's a 621.72 downside FP on the SPY from 8/4 (about 6266 ES), and if they do try to trick traders today (don't they always?... LOL) then we might see the first reaction after Powell is to go down hit that FP and then reverse hard the rest of the day.

It will trap all the shorts and take out all the longs in one fast move down, then up. It should also give the market the needed fuel to rally up to the 655.66 FP into next week. That will destroy the last bear as you know they have stops just above the current all time high (647.13 SPY), so another 80 points (ES/SPX) above that level will kill even the most diehard bears. Once that happens we can then get the much needed correction into the first 1-2 weeks of September where we "might" see the 588.79 FP hit on the SPY?

If we get a pullback from the 6600 ES zone to the low 5900's that's a good 10% and more then enough to work off a ton of overbought charts on various time frame. It will then allow the market to rally hard the rest of September and into October with everyone looking for another big drop. But it won't happen and instead we'll see 7400+ in a meltup that will end at some point with a crash. But who knows when that happens? For now let's just get past today and next week.

Have a great weekend.

Everything is looking good for one more move up to hit the FP on the SPY, which will probably happen into early next week.  Today will probably be a "pause" day as the market waits on Jerome Powell to speak tomorrow at Jackson Hole.  Bulls will want the short term charts to get oversold so they can use anything he says as a reason to squeeze the bears.

Meaning a retest of the lows from yesterday would be ideal, and even piercing them would be fine too... just nothing too deep.  Patience is the key here as we know the upside FP will be the target high and we must just let it happen.

Have an blessed day.

The market is just too tired it seems to hit the FP this week as we are in a tiny pullback mode right now. I think this will end by this coming Monday and then we'll make the last move into mid-late next week, or at worst early the first week of September. I don't think it goes into September but it's possible for sure.

Right now we are close to the 20 day SMA on the SPX cash and right on top of it on the ES, so I think this zone will hold into Monday to frustrate all the bears (and bulls). Chop basically into Monday and then we finally get a strong move up that makes a new high to hit the FP on the SPY. After that I think it gets ugly as I'm now thinking we will drop hard into September 18th in what will feel like a crash move. But one step at a time. For now we are still in a chop mode into Monday most likely.

Have an blessed day.

The market is clearly waiting on some news event to breakout... what that is I don't know? Maybe it's some kind of peace deal that Trump puts together? Whatever it is we should see a fast move up to hit and pierce the FP of 655.66 on the SPY, and then the top is in and a nice pullback should follow. We are so close to it now that I just can't see it being put off into next month or the month after. We should hit it this week and then get just as fast a first move down for what should be the A wave. The B up will be a torture probably but the C down should bottom on September 18th I think. I could be wrong and that could be a top, but right now there's too much time left for just an A down and B up. It's more then enough time to complete the entire ABC I think. Now, if I'm wrong then we would then top on the B wave up into the 18th and start the C down afterwards. That's possible, but I first want to see the A down start and finish, so let's just give it more time to play out as we won't know until the first move is out of the way. That's all I have for now... nothing has changed. Still waiting on the FP before shorting.

Have an blessed day.

We should see some action this week as we will likely breakout of this range, whinch I think will first be up to the FP on the SPY of 655.66 to take out the shorts and trap the bulls. Then a sharp pullback the rest of the week and probably into early next week. I think we will see the 6245 support zone tested, and probably pierced before we turn back up for a bounce into the end of the month.

If this goes as I think it will "that bounce" will be a lower high for a B wave with the drop this week into early next as the A wave. Then the C wave will drag out into September 18th where I think the low will be put in. How low can it go you ask? I don't know but since I don't think we will top until the 1st quarter of 2026 (the final high before a bear market), I suspect the ES will want to fill the gap at 5300 or so.

Now that's the dream pullback. We could also just pullback to the 588.79 FP on the SPY, which is roughly where the 200 Day Simple Moving Average is at (and will be into 9/18). One of these two scenario's should play out. Then it can start the massive rally to 7000-8000 with tons of bears shorting every move up thinking the April lows are going to be taken out... but they won't. That's the big picture, and it's not changed really from last weeks' thoughts. As for the short term I remain looking for the FP to get hit before we rollover, and ideally it happens early this week.

Have a blessed day.

I wasn't able to do a post yesterday as a storm knocked out my power and damaged my Windows 8.1 computer that has all my notes and stuff. I spent most the day trying to get my newer Windows 11 computer to connect to the internet as while it would boot up just fine (unlike the Windows 8.1 that won't boot at all) I could not get back online. My old Windows 7 computer was the only one working just fine... LOL.

I never have figured out what happen but I think some electrical surge much have went though the internet line and (it's hard wired) and caused the "No DHCP Server Found" problem. I tried installing a wireless card but it wouldn't work either. Finally I went to Best Buy to get a USB Wireless one and it worked for my Windows 11 computer that I do the charts on.  I'm still working on the Windows 8.1 computer that I write the posts on and do my research, but should have it back up over the weekend.

Once I got my charts back up I see that I didn't miss anything yesterday in the market. I don't really have anything new to add. I still think we won't top until the 655.66 FP is hit, and that could be any day now. We are close and that's all that matters. I'm just waiting for it so I can short it.

Have a great weekend.

The grind continues as every early pullback gets pushed back up throughout the rest of the day. If I didn't have the FP as the target I would have already shorted this market I'm sure. Now we have a new all time high on the ES and Nasdaq. The DOW is close but I don't know if it's going to make it or not? My focus is still on the 655.66 FP on the SPY, and of course we should pierce it a little.

Everything is lining up nicely now for it to be hit this week and top out the market. I don't know which day of course but it should hit before the week ends. There may or may not be some exhaustion fast squeeze... I don't know? Many times tops just quietly happen and no one really notices them.

That could be the case here as we are basically only about a 120 points or so away now since the high on the SPY as I write this post Tuesday evening is 643.24, which is 12.42 SPY points away and that's roughly 124 or so points on the ES/SPX. Next week is still looking likely to cause a nasty pullback, which could last into my September 18th ideal target date... who knows? I only know that's a ritual day and should be a top or bottom, and right now it's looking more like a bottom.

That could change of course as maybe the first leg down last into the end of August (the A wave) and then the B wave rally back up tops on the 18th of September? I tend to think the entire ABC pullback will end into that date but I could be wrong. We need to see how fast the first pullback happens to gauge the time needed for the B wave rally. For now though I'm just patiently waiting on the upside FP to get hit so I can short the pig.

Have an blessed day.