Aren’t the next presidential elections on Tuesday, November 6th 2012? I don’t think an “election manipulation rally” is in the cards yet. I’m like you though Red, I want the elections to happen now. I can’t stand the current regime…
It’s GRAND JUBILEE 666 Week!!!! Time for the market to tank and cut through the 200 day average.
Today is 23years 8months 7days from 10-19-1987. Futures are down quite abit for crude oil,silver, and currencies although stock futures have levelled off. But with the currencies and in particular near a multi-week low and crude and silver threatening to do so, I can’t say it looks good for the stock indices tomorrow.
The Russell rebalancing on Friday artificially propped up the markets on Friday.
The moves over the last decade look like a double bottom to me, or a sideways consolidation at best. It looks very bullish until proven otherwise. Speculating on this alleged P3 has been the quickest ways for bears to lose their shirts, and I don’t see it ending anytime soon. They will continue to bet against a strong rally until they give up hope. And maybe then I’ll be turning bearish.
Yes, EW is an “after the fact” indicator, and I only use it as speculation. However, I must disagree with you on a new high. During the May/June 2010 period the monthly chart was under the zero level on the MACD’s and never even got a bearish cross. I just went sideways during the drop in the market and then resumed it’s way back up.
Now the MACD’s are between +25 and +50 and rolling over. The whole move up from the 2009 low has now put in a clean ABC pattern. The MACD Histogram bars now have a negative divergence on them, and the entire chart from 1997 to present shows a perfect “MA” pattern on it… very bearish. The right side of the MA is just now starting and projects a low well below the March 2009 level.
As for more money put into the system to keep it up… I don’t see it happening. This is just the start of a huge move down in my opinion… but we are both just guessing in the end, and neither of us have a crystal ball.
You figure it by looking at the stochastic value. Look at any index, the Russell, Nasdaq, S&P. It’s all the same. The full stochastic values on the weekly charts now are LOWER than they were during the flash crash correction on the weekly chart in May/June 2010, yet there has been less selling in net. The flash crash period saw the S&P shed 200 handles. We’ve only shed around 100 and it’s taken more time and gotten more oversold.
I’m afraid to say it, but the bears are simply too weak. As you like to say, many charts are starting to “reset” without any real technical damage done.
This all supports the notion of a renewed uptrend and new highs by the end of the year. When I saw how terribly weak the bears were during this correction (very little damage done with massive bearish sentiment) I have no choice but to be bullish for the time being. In fact, I’m not more bullish than I was, because of how weak the bears are, and I now expect the NDX to rise 60% over the next two years, in addition to the S&P making new all time highs.
This is temporarily my view. If the bears can pull something out of the hat and crash this thing, I might believe otherwise. For now, the facts just don’t support it. And I also feel that all the Elliot Wave people out there are full of it….P3….I mean, who actually trades that garbage? It’s meaningless.
How do figure that? The STO’s were above 80 on May the 5th and didn’t hit the 20 level until the end of June, 2010. At that point, the MACD’s had just hit the zero level and fell below it slightly for several weeks before starting a big rally in early September.
While we are approaching oversold levels on the weekly chart, we aren’t there yet. The daily is another story of course. However, it’s really weird right now, as something just feels different. I can’t put it in words. But I think we have put in a final top for quite a long time. The gangsters are out of money, and out of time.
The whole system is reaching a point of exhaustion, and will soon collapse on it’s own weight. All those derivatives can’t be paid, and a crash must happen to clean them out of the system. I still think the market will go down until summer is over, and rally into the fall for the elections… then start crashing the week of October 23rd (per the end of the Legatus meeting).
Red, nice video. What are your thoughts on the fact that the weekly S&P stochastics are more oversold than May of 2010 after the flash crash, yet there has been less price destruction on this sell off than during the flash crash period?
Well, it looks like they decided to rally first. I wonder how high they will take it?
Aren’t the next presidential elections on Tuesday, November 6th 2012? I don’t think an “election manipulation rally” is in the cards yet. I’m like you though Red, I want the elections to happen now. I can’t stand the current regime…
Thanks for the update video.
EURUSD Triangle pattern: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/eurusd-triangle-pattern.html
It’s GRAND JUBILEE 666 Week!!!! Time for the market to tank and cut through the 200 day average.
Today is 23years 8months 7days from 10-19-1987. Futures are down quite abit for crude oil,silver, and currencies although stock futures have levelled off. But with the currencies and in particular near a multi-week low and crude and silver threatening to do so, I can’t say it looks good for the stock indices tomorrow.
The Russell rebalancing on Friday artificially propped up the markets on Friday.
The moves over the last decade look like a double bottom to me, or a sideways consolidation at best. It looks very bullish until proven otherwise. Speculating on this alleged P3 has been the quickest ways for bears to lose their shirts, and I don’t see it ending anytime soon. They will continue to bet against a strong rally until they give up hope. And maybe then I’ll be turning bearish.
Yes, EW is an “after the fact” indicator, and I only use it as speculation. However, I must disagree with you on a new high. During the May/June 2010 period the monthly chart was under the zero level on the MACD’s and never even got a bearish cross. I just went sideways during the drop in the market and then resumed it’s way back up.
Now the MACD’s are between +25 and +50 and rolling over. The whole move up from the 2009 low has now put in a clean ABC pattern. The MACD Histogram bars now have a negative divergence on them, and the entire chart from 1997 to present shows a perfect “MA” pattern on it… very bearish. The right side of the MA is just now starting and projects a low well below the March 2009 level.
As for more money put into the system to keep it up… I don’t see it happening. This is just the start of a huge move down in my opinion… but we are both just guessing in the end, and neither of us have a crystal ball.
You figure it by looking at the stochastic value. Look at any index, the Russell, Nasdaq, S&P. It’s all the same. The full stochastic values on the weekly charts now are LOWER than they were during the flash crash correction on the weekly chart in May/June 2010, yet there has been less selling in net. The flash crash period saw the S&P shed 200 handles. We’ve only shed around 100 and it’s taken more time and gotten more oversold.
I’m afraid to say it, but the bears are simply too weak. As you like to say, many charts are starting to “reset” without any real technical damage done.
This all supports the notion of a renewed uptrend and new highs by the end of the year. When I saw how terribly weak the bears were during this correction (very little damage done with massive bearish sentiment) I have no choice but to be bullish for the time being. In fact, I’m not more bullish than I was, because of how weak the bears are, and I now expect the NDX to rise 60% over the next two years, in addition to the S&P making new all time highs.
This is temporarily my view. If the bears can pull something out of the hat and crash this thing, I might believe otherwise. For now, the facts just don’t support it. And I also feel that all the Elliot Wave people out there are full of it….P3….I mean, who actually trades that garbage? It’s meaningless.
How do figure that? The STO’s were above 80 on May the 5th and didn’t hit the 20 level until the end of June, 2010. At that point, the MACD’s had just hit the zero level and fell below it slightly for several weeks before starting a big rally in early September.
While we are approaching oversold levels on the weekly chart, we aren’t there yet. The daily is another story of course. However, it’s really weird right now, as something just feels different. I can’t put it in words. But I think we have put in a final top for quite a long time. The gangsters are out of money, and out of time.
The whole system is reaching a point of exhaustion, and will soon collapse on it’s own weight. All those derivatives can’t be paid, and a crash must happen to clean them out of the system. I still think the market will go down until summer is over, and rally into the fall for the elections… then start crashing the week of October 23rd (per the end of the Legatus meeting).
Red, nice video. What are your thoughts on the fact that the weekly S&P stochastics are more oversold than May of 2010 after the flash crash, yet there has been less price destruction on this sell off than during the flash crash period?
New post…
http://reddragonleo.com/2011/06/26/time-to-bounce-or-crash-that-is-the-question/