Well… so much for the “inverted head and shoulders” pattern. We certainly did gap down… at least I got that one right! LOL
However, I’m think we may have seen the capitulation move today, as the dollar is hitting a strong resistance level from a downward sloping trendline, and should pull back for a few days… allowing a relief rally in the market. I also see a nice bottoming tail on the spy and dia right now. That, coupled with the short term charts mostly oversold, could mean a surprise move back up tomorrow?
If I had to think like a gangster, I’d come out with better then expected claims numbers tomorrow and job data Friday… causing all the new bears to get squeezed on a rally. Remember, we have now had 6 straight weeks down, and even the newest newbie is now expecting bad data tomorrow… meaning that everyone is short! Lesson learned… expect the unexpected!
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I think we’ll see some selling tomorrow Geccko, but I don’t think the rally is over. It should be an “ABC” type move… meaning a surprise up day on Thursday to complete the “C” wave (or at least an early morning pop), followed by some light selling on Friday. Remember… it’s OPX! They will pin it where the most amount of “Puts” expire worthless. My guess is between 130 and 131.
We should get a pop on Monday too… if my instincts are right? Call it the last bear squeeze before the next wave down starts later that day or Tuesday. I’m just guessing of course, but that’s all we all do anyway… LOL.
The max I can see is about 1320 spx Scott, but 1305-1310 seems more likely. It could take the rest of the week and into Monday of next week to hit it… especially if they try to stretch it to 1320. Or it could fall short and sell off some on Friday… but I don’t think they will start the next wave down until next week. This is an opx week, and the always manipulate the market during these periods.
I think this is a one day affair again. The market hasn’t hit the March low targets still except for the $rut which has been tracing out its own little pattern the last 6 months but today’s bounce got the daily RSIs up to around 41 which is where it went in a previous fractal although we would be ahead of schedule for that fractal but behind schedule for a serious bounce. But the market needs to be more oversold for a superbounce.
It looks like the lunar eclipse effect and the 1111 Ikea date are back in play. Today’s pop seems to have disenhearted the Puetz enthusiasts.
Dow Jones analysis after closing bell: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/dow-jones-analysis-after-closing-bell_16.html
SPY Positive divergence: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/06/spy-positive-divergence.html
Well… so much for the “inverted head and shoulders” pattern. We certainly did gap down… at least I got that one right! LOL
However, I’m think we may have seen the capitulation move today, as the dollar is hitting a strong resistance level from a downward sloping trendline, and should pull back for a few days… allowing a relief rally in the market. I also see a nice bottoming tail on the spy and dia right now. That, coupled with the short term charts mostly oversold, could mean a surprise move back up tomorrow?
If I had to think like a gangster, I’d come out with better then expected claims numbers tomorrow and job data Friday… causing all the new bears to get squeezed on a rally. Remember, we have now had 6 straight weeks down, and even the newest newbie is now expecting bad data tomorrow… meaning that everyone is short! Lesson learned… expect the unexpected!
Very likely for Monday, double Pomo day 🙂
I positively venerate celebration of a mass your blog posts, a accumulation of essay is smashing.This blog as common was educational,we have had to bookmark your site as well as allow to your feed in ifeed. Your thesis looks lovely.Thanks for sharing.
Regards:
Nifty Option Tips
I think we’ll see some selling tomorrow Geccko, but I don’t think the rally is over. It should be an “ABC” type move… meaning a surprise up day on Thursday to complete the “C” wave (or at least an early morning pop), followed by some light selling on Friday. Remember… it’s OPX! They will pin it where the most amount of “Puts” expire worthless. My guess is between 130 and 131.
We should get a pop on Monday too… if my instincts are right? Call it the last bear squeeze before the next wave down starts later that day or Tuesday. I’m just guessing of course, but that’s all we all do anyway… LOL.
The max I can see is about 1320 spx Scott, but 1305-1310 seems more likely. It could take the rest of the week and into Monday of next week to hit it… especially if they try to stretch it to 1320. Or it could fall short and sell off some on Friday… but I don’t think they will start the next wave down until next week. This is an opx week, and the always manipulate the market during these periods.
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I think this is a one day affair again. The market hasn’t hit the March low targets still except for the $rut which has been tracing out its own little pattern the last 6 months but today’s bounce got the daily RSIs up to around 41 which is where it went in a previous fractal although we would be ahead of schedule for that fractal but behind schedule for a serious bounce. But the market needs to be more oversold for a superbounce.
It looks like the lunar eclipse effect and the 1111 Ikea date are back in play. Today’s pop seems to have disenhearted the Puetz enthusiasts.