Is It Crash Time Yet?

85
2186

Wednesday Update...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLFQMEZE_LE)

Red

_____________________________________________________

Monday Update...

 

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zvNLC8zJSk)

Red

_____________________________________________________

The Market Closed At A Crossroad Friday, Leaving It Undecided...

(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-Ps6Qi6uMc)

So what happens next week is a tough call.  Everything still looks very bearish, but the market still hasn't broken major support on most all charts.  It could break up and squeeze the bears one more time, or fool the bulls and break down through support.

If this were strictly based on the charts, the market would tank next week.  But we all know that's not the only thing to consider.  We have too add in the "manipulation factor"... meaning, "What do the Gangsters have planned?"  You'll notice that I never mentioned anything recently about the bogus "End of the World Rapture News" recently.  Why?  Because it was on "Main Stream Media"... meaning that it was put out by the gangsters to mislead the sheep.  Therefore, I knew it wouldn't happen, and never spoke of it.

Now that we all survived the "Fake Rapture", we have to move on and live another day.

Looking at all the charts, the dollar, silver, gold, banking, etc... they all are screaming "more downside coming"!  I'm not saying that we are going to crash, but I do see the market breaking the major support line this coming week.  I think we will take out the previous low of 1318 by this Friday, and then the market can rally the following week.

We should get a bounce on Monday or Tuesday, and then head down into Friday.  Since the market sold off nicely this past Friday, you could expect a little more selling into Monday morning.  I'm not sure if it will continue throughout the entire day and let it have a relief rally on Tuesday, or if the relief rally starts in the afternoon on Monday and continues into Tuesday, but either way I'll be looking to get short again early in the week.

The only wildcard is if the market goes against the charts and gaps up out of the resistance zone and clears the 1350 spx level with strength.  There is an "inverted head and shoulders" pattern on the 60 minute chart of the spx, but I'm not sure how far it can go... if it even plays out at all?  The dollar is looking like it's putting in a bull flag, which will really hurt the chances of a big rally on the market.

Plus, the banking etf XLF is extremely bearish right now, with no signs of turning back up.  Silver is looking bullish on the daily, but not the weekly.  It is forming a bear flag, while the daily is just trading sideways while the MACD histogram bars are moving up fast toward the zero level from oversold sold territory.  The dollar rally has really hurt commodities, and I think silver will fall down again once the histogram bars reach the zero level and roll back over (if they make it up there at all?).

Common Monthly turn dates are the 25th-27th...

There is also the fact that option expiration week is over and many times the market sells off after it ends, as a new month starts and traders need to hedge their long positions.  This is why the 25th-27th of every month seems too be a turning point.  If I had to guess, I'd say that we will break the major support area on Monday, backtest it on Tuesday and into Wednesday, and then fall into a wave 3 down into Friday.  This seems common from past months.  Of course I don't know how low we go, as I haven't seen any FP's lately, but we should easily take out the 1318 spx level at the very minimum.

After this coming week is over, I'll be looking at the long side.  I think they will push it back up in June to fool the bears.  How high is unknown of course, but I still think we will make new highs before this market really crashes this October.  We still have the 138.86 FP on the SPY that has too be hit, and June or even July looks like the likely month that it will reach it.

However, until I see the breakdown of the major support line, I'll sit in cash.  I don't want to be caught in a bear squeeze should the gangsters decide to rally up in that 5th wave come Monday morning.  That would fool a lot of bears... and probably some bulls too?

Red

 

85 COMMENTS

  1. Well, once again the gangsters take the market down to oversold levels when the small retail trader can’t get in.  Now they will open it this morning, bounce early on, get the sheep short, sell off a little more and likely put in a bottom today.

    Then later in the afternoon or early tomorrow we should see them squeeze the new retail shorts and run this market back up to backtest the broken support.  That should take us into Wednesday I suspect.

    After that we’ll have too re-look at the charts.  The move down today could get the daily oversold enough to cause a rally into early June.  Or, it could set the stage for another large wave down on Thursday and Friday?  Too hard to say right now.  But one thing seems clear… the retail bears are likely to get trapped again.  Gangsters!

    •  Yep…that’s the gap up/down hard game they play with resistance and support. They want retail to chase and then squeeze ’em out. Otherwise just place your bets like a casino for the next days open… Dirty game when you aren’t insider trading like the illuminati.

      • It’s not insider trading when you’re actually completely controlling the market……

  2. We’re bouncing now as expected… let’s see if they go back down again?  If they put in a higher low then I think the bottom is in for the day.  If it’s a lower low, then we should continue down all day to probably about the 1290 spx area.

  3.  SPY Near channel support line: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/05/spy-at-channel-bottom.html

  4. And THAT is how to trade silver. It’s expected to hit 38 by Thursday’s cycle turn. I can’t believe you guys missed that — that’s a huge move! I’m long AGQ from 154!!

    • Silver is due a bounce Cletus… I agree.  But I just didn’t feel comfortable going long it currently.  However, I’ll likely go short at 38… I’m glad it’s working out for you though.  I did take a small long position yesterday, and I plan to hold it for at least a couple of days.  I have too see how the market reacts when it hits overhead resistance (probably Wednesday).

    • Yes, it is weak today, but that’s too be expected.  It was a very powerful sell off yesterday, so it’s trying to get some ground here.  The key here is the dollar and silver.

      Silver has rallied since the dollar has paused its’ advance.  As long as the dollar trades sideways to slightly the down the market should attempt a small rally.  Once the dollar resumes back up (probably this Thursday and/or Friday), the market should fall again.  I’m just patiently waiting right now.

  5. Looks like we should finally bottom out soon. Basing it on 15min overbought VIX, as well as 15/30 min oversold SPY. DOW daily RSI (at least with my rsi config) is literally at 0. Looks like we should get a bounce from here…

    • Yes, I agree Shark.  I think today will end as a “pause” day, and tomorrow we should have some upside.  How much is unknown of course, but a rally never the less is overdue.

        • That was loud… glad I turned the speakers down first!

          I’m still having problems with my host.  Their server was down again, and this site was too.  I’m about ready to move to another host anyway, and redo some things, so them screwing up just makes me work faster.

          The futures are down quite a bit, so that bounce I was expecting must have been this morning… because tomorrow isn’t looking very friendly to the bulls.

          • Yeah I noticed having trouble getting to the site, weird how their server would be down. ES gap shortly after close. Is it an exhaustion move, or something more sinister??
            For some reason, one of the local radio stations was talking about nuclear armageddon or something or other and was joking around playing a siren on the air. Those nuke alarms always make my skin crawl because you never want to hear them for real.

          • This could be an exhaustion gap, and then we could rally into Thursday and Friday… or it’s not, and we crash into Friday?  Who knows which?  One thing is certain, this move down started right after the Legatus meeting ended.

            The next one is this October, and the ending date is the 23rd… can you say “One Big Ass Crash” is coming?  Yeah, I think so…  I’ll just be trying to trade lightly until then and stay in the game.  Hopefully I’ll be fully ready to bet the “pot” when that week comes, as I think the bears will have 4 Aces in their hands by then.

  6. I was going to write that the markets are in a perfect technical setup for significant meltdown, probably into the solar eclipse but I couldn’t get access to this site and then the futures started going vertical.   All of this occurred right around the start of the Thrice-Bulls game.   Today was the Thrice’s 69th victory of the year in their 95th game played  10months16 days from the DECISION and 10months15days from the unveiling of the Thrice number.

    Tonight is one of the first times I watched the Thrice during the playoffs and they flashed some interesting numbers throughout it in particular the Martin Armstrong number or more importantly the number that got him a multi-year residency in Club Fed. 

    The Bulls are about to meet their demise.

      • Who cares what the Cry-ami Cheat are doing? I mean really,…the whole NBA for that matter. Sorry, I don’t mean to be adversarial, I just had to get that out. Now back to the market…

  7. ES Moving down in a channel: http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2011/05/es-moving-down-in-channel.html

      • Red,

        What is your basis for the week of Oct 23rd?  If an alternate source provided that week, it confirms what this guy is saying and adds to our “confidence” that the real crash is then…Then again, TPTB can always change their minds or this could be part of a mis-information campaign…  Ahhhh…this is driving me nuts!

        • To answer your question about “why the week of October 23rd?” Johnny… the answer is:  “it’s when the Legatus Pilgrimage ends”… and the last one just ended on May the 2nd (which is currently the top in the market).

  8. I think we had an “exhaustion” gap down this morning, which leads me to believe that we will continue higher the rest of today and probably tomorrow too.  I’m not totally sure if the selling is over yet, as this could just be a 1-2 bounce… then more down.  We’ll have too see in a couple of days how the charts look, but for now I think the selling has stopped for awhile.

    • Looks like the VIX is resting on 30min 200 DAY MA. If we are slowly forming a daily Inverse HnS pattern, we may be about to start the right shoulder up. Same with the dollar /dx. 
      Im certainly buying VIX shares if it ever drops to 16 again lol

  9. This rally has taken the Nasdaq back above its lower BB.   It also hit its 30RSI on the 60min chart yesterday.   Similar story to XLF.   If they dropped today they would have spent the entire day below their BBs which wouldn’t be good for the bears since that is generally a bottoming signal.
     
    Looking at the averages, from a BB perspective, it still looks very precarious.  And silver has now bounced to its downtrending 20 day average at a 50 rsi.   During crude’s big decline in 2008, it’s RSI could never get above 50.   Gold looks like it’s flat since it rallied earlier than the other commodities.
     
    So far I see a lot of bottom calling, and bullish enthusiasm on the message boards but still need to peruse some more of them.   There was a small change in $nymo yesterday but I don’t if today’s action qualifies for the signal.
     
    And I will continue to write about the Thrice despite what the trolls think since they are the enlightened one’s favored team.   And I will divulge the Armstrong number too if I am provoked any furthur.

    Edit add-on.  (this post was lost when I logged into Disqus—now it has reappeared):

    The end of the day drop was comical.  $ndx barely closed above its lower BB.
    And stockcharts has gold down on the day (barely) and the dollar up slightly.  It all depends on the dollar.   Dollar needs to rally up to its upper BB for the meltdown to proceed.

    • i may be wrong but i see a 3rd of a 3rd coming on the daily /ES. Major selling to come. The resistance between 1328.5 and 1332. Also, i think precious metals are rising due to euro weakness, not dollar strength. In other words, due to the euro debt crisis which is escalating, the dollar and can rise along with precoius metals as long as its doing so due to EURO WEAKNESS. 🙂

  10. Tomorrow, May 26 or 5-26 or 5-8 is 115 years from the birth of the Dow Jones Industrial average in 1896.   In 5-11.   The low of that year was made on 8-7.

  11. …….including military.  Because they’ll just send you to other countries and steal for them.

  12. Market looks like its about to weaken and possibly selloff going into the close. Tomorrow i look for a very bloody selloff. Maybe the Egypt Revolution Part II tomorrow might help that out. Also, i think since monday is a holiday , the futures will drop like a brick to trap any remaining bears. The DOW monthly RSI (at least with my configuration)  has already crossed over. This will not go unnoticed or unpunished =]

  13. sorry for not proofreading. I meant that tomorrow and monday may selloff and trap any remaining BULLS, not bears!

  14. yup when the bulls are unable to sell…there will be big news from europe on monday and more than likely related to the euro debt crisis in order to get the euro to finally gap down under its weekly 200 day ma

    • What if it’s good news tomorrow morning and China is buying more debt? You can’t always be doom and gloom… We are in an UPTREND still. Until we have actually broken that trendline from the March 2009 lows, bears will be bull fuel. Broader view indicators are starting to support a nice move back up and possible continuation of the bull market. THAT would be something the bears wouldn’t expect…

  15. if we get a C wave up, i only see it as a gap in the morning  because there is significant support on VIX @ 15.95.

    • I do expect it, as it’s common of the gangsters to do a quick stop sweep on the bears before a big move down happens.  You don’t really expect them to allow the bears to be on the train when it leaves the station do you?

      • lol…they might invite us to the after party but certainly not the first ones invited to the bear fest. Hey Red, do you mind if i add your blogsite as a link on my site? http://www.sharkmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/ . Feel free to peruse some of the info that i post. It comes from Trends Journal, Martin Armstrong, Zero Hedge, Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki and some of my own research. You guys help me so much with my options trading, i figure i can contribute some economic and geopolitical information. Thanks!
        SH^RK

    • Maybe, but with this being a 3 day holiday weekend, I wouldn’t count on too much selling.  You know the gangsters aren’t going to let the market tank hard on the Friday when everyone is going out to spend money to buy junk they don’t need.

      A big sell off in the market might make them think twice before getting that flat screen TV… which of course the gangsters don’t want.  They want you spending every dollar you have (and don’t have) to get this dying bull going again.

  16. LeBron James says the hate ends in about a month.  NBA finals end at the latest on June 14.    Hate an anagram for Heat.

    He was blabbing about MVP the other day and nobody for sure new who he was talking about or what he was saying.   Supposedly a smug jab at Derrick Rose.

    Derrick Rose’s 89 commercial flashing a number I have been looking at a while and it is none too subtle.   I can’t believe the operator’s agency approved this commercial.   Probably too obvious but IKEA likes the number too.

  17. I positively venerate celebration of a mass your blog posts, a accumulation of essay is smashing.This blog as common was educational,we have had to bookmark your site as well as allow to your feed in ifeed. Your thesis looks lovely.Thanks for sharing.
    Regards:    
    Nifty Option Tips     

Comments are closed.