(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLFQMEZE_LE)
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zvNLC8zJSk)
The Market Closed At A Crossroad Friday, Leaving It Undecided...
(to watch on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L-Ps6Qi6uMc)
So what happens next week is a tough call. Everything still looks very bearish, but the market still hasn't broken major support on most all charts. It could break up and squeeze the bears one more time, or fool the bulls and break down through support.
If this were strictly based on the charts, the market would tank next week. But we all know that's not the only thing to consider. We have too add in the "manipulation factor"... meaning, "What do the Gangsters have planned?" You'll notice that I never mentioned anything recently about the bogus "End of the World Rapture News" recently. Why? Because it was on "Main Stream Media"... meaning that it was put out by the gangsters to mislead the sheep. Therefore, I knew it wouldn't happen, and never spoke of it.
Now that we all survived the "Fake Rapture", we have to move on and live another day.
Looking at all the charts, the dollar, silver, gold, banking, etc... they all are screaming "more downside coming"! I'm not saying that we are going to crash, but I do see the market breaking the major support line this coming week. I think we will take out the previous low of 1318 by this Friday, and then the market can rally the following week.
We should get a bounce on Monday or Tuesday, and then head down into Friday. Since the market sold off nicely this past Friday, you could expect a little more selling into Monday morning. I'm not sure if it will continue throughout the entire day and let it have a relief rally on Tuesday, or if the relief rally starts in the afternoon on Monday and continues into Tuesday, but either way I'll be looking to get short again early in the week.
The only wildcard is if the market goes against the charts and gaps up out of the resistance zone and clears the 1350 spx level with strength. There is an "inverted head and shoulders" pattern on the 60 minute chart of the spx, but I'm not sure how far it can go... if it even plays out at all? The dollar is looking like it's putting in a bull flag, which will really hurt the chances of a big rally on the market.
Plus, the banking etf XLF is extremely bearish right now, with no signs of turning back up. Silver is looking bullish on the daily, but not the weekly. It is forming a bear flag, while the daily is just trading sideways while the MACD histogram bars are moving up fast toward the zero level from oversold sold territory. The dollar rally has really hurt commodities, and I think silver will fall down again once the histogram bars reach the zero level and roll back over (if they make it up there at all?).
Common Monthly turn dates are the 25th-27th...
There is also the fact that option expiration week is over and many times the market sells off after it ends, as a new month starts and traders need to hedge their long positions. This is why the 25th-27th of every month seems too be a turning point. If I had to guess, I'd say that we will break the major support area on Monday, backtest it on Tuesday and into Wednesday, and then fall into a wave 3 down into Friday. This seems common from past months. Of course I don't know how low we go, as I haven't seen any FP's lately, but we should easily take out the 1318 spx level at the very minimum.
After this coming week is over, I'll be looking at the long side. I think they will push it back up in June to fool the bears. How high is unknown of course, but I still think we will make new highs before this market really crashes this October. We still have the 138.86 FP on the SPY that has too be hit, and June or even July looks like the likely month that it will reach it.
However, until I see the breakdown of the major support line, I'll sit in cash. I don't want to be caught in a bear squeeze should the gangsters decide to rally up in that 5th wave come Monday morning. That would fool a lot of bears... and probably some bulls too?