Well I had to take a peek and see how we closed and I see it was a good one.- Unless the FED news tomorrow runs this up back to new highs by Friday at the latest..then I’m 99% sure we’ve seen the highs on all the key indexes for at least a month or so. Say Dow 17,100 and SPX 1990.One more run back up SPX 1881 ain’t gonna cut it now.- This has got nuthin to do with all that P3 shit talk and bulls vs bears crap..this is just about developing a real trading range for a while in the upper 5 to 7% to range. Very normal in bull markets.So lets see what happens after the FED shit tmrw and hopefully they open this up a bit. Hell..even if it’s just down to SPX 1920,it works for me…although if we go down there..I think we go south of SPX 1900 for a bit. How about a range from SPX 1850 to 1990 into Oct ? As I’ve said for 2 weeks..SPX 1970 is my line in the sand, WE close at 1969…so It will be rel interesting to see where we have closed at 24 hours from now. Of course I’m hoping it’s lower. We shall see. Hasta manana.
Tough to get a read on the market right now. Wave count isn’t obvious anymore. I still think we are either already in a larger C wave down or will start one tomorrow after Yellen speaks. Meaning that there’s still a chance they could go up tomorrow higher then today and complete the larger B wave up.
That would set up a lower high then the current high last week but higher then today. Somewhere between 1984 and 1991 SPX would be the target. That’s only if they do the usually and close the FOMC day green like they have done so many times in the past.
That’s a pretty nice rally into the close tomorrow and while it seems unlikely to happen I could see it as “possible” in the charts. Honestly though it really looks done to me and we should continue down more tomorrow. But you know how they like to manipulate the charts and trick the bears, so I’m just throwing that out there as a “possible” but unlikely scenario.
What should happen is that we open in the morning (probably down) and rally to that falling trendline on the SPY around 198.20 right now. That would be around 1982 SPX area I guess. A lower high then today’s high, which would setup a big move down on Thursday.
I don’t trust SkyNet on second. This looks too easy right now and they never let us bears in. I suspect we’ll open down tomorrow to lure in the last bear. Then rip all day into the FOMC meeting to hit that falling trendline. If that happens I’d look to get short. If not then I just missed this move down.
So far we’ve yet to get that smaller C wave up. Obummer is talking soon about sanctions on the Russians again. My best guess is that things will calm down afterhours and we’ll rally up tomorrow morning to that upper falling trendline on that triangle.
It should have fallen to around 198.20 SPY by then. If we have a gap open and hit that level I’ll be shorting it in a 198/194 put spread expiring next Friday. Meaning I’ll buy the 198 and sell the 194.
They don’t usually let the bears in short this easily. There should be another move up tomorrow morning. Of course I could be wrong and this time they just tank it? If so, I’ll just sit this move out as I’m not chasing it and getting another bad entry like I did on the long previously.
Here’s the wave count that I’m seeing now. I’m waiting until the close today as that’s when I think we’ll see our best shorting opportunity: http://screencast.com/t/dklEbSSXXC
I get the feeling they will chop around all day into the close and make a bear flag going into tomorrow. Possibly Yellen says something at the FOMC that the market doesn’t like and will therefore allow this C wave down to continue?
Most FOMC days are positive, but maybe it’s time for a negative one? Of course they won’t blame it on Yellen but on the sanctions instead.
Yes, you are correct. I think we are starting that larger wave C down to the 1940 SPX area. Should be small bounces along the way as this will likely be an ugly move down.
I’m going to just wait patiently to see if there’s any bounces later today. If so then I’ll take a short position but right now I’m not doing anything as it’s like trying to catch a falling knife and I don’t want to get cut again…. LOL
I’m thinking you’re right it should pop up tomorrow morning
Well I had to take a peek and see how we closed and I see it was a good one.- Unless the FED news tomorrow runs this up back to new highs by Friday at the latest..then I’m 99% sure we’ve seen the highs on all the key indexes for at least a month or so. Say Dow 17,100 and SPX 1990.One more run back up SPX 1881 ain’t gonna cut it now.- This has got nuthin to do with all that P3 shit talk and bulls vs bears crap..this is just about developing a real trading range for a while in the upper 5 to 7% to range. Very normal in bull markets.So lets see what happens after the FED shit tmrw and hopefully they open this up a bit. Hell..even if it’s just down to SPX 1920,it works for me…although if we go down there..I think we go south of SPX 1900 for a bit. How about a range from SPX 1850 to 1990 into Oct ? As I’ve said for 2 weeks..SPX 1970 is my line in the sand, WE close at 1969…so It will be rel interesting to see where we have closed at 24 hours from now. Of course I’m hoping it’s lower. We shall see. Hasta manana.
Tough to get a read on the market right now. Wave count isn’t obvious anymore. I still think we are either already in a larger C wave down or will start one tomorrow after Yellen speaks. Meaning that there’s still a chance they could go up tomorrow higher then today and complete the larger B wave up.
That would set up a lower high then the current high last week but higher then today. Somewhere between 1984 and 1991 SPX would be the target. That’s only if they do the usually and close the FOMC day green like they have done so many times in the past.
That’s a pretty nice rally into the close tomorrow and while it seems unlikely to happen I could see it as “possible” in the charts. Honestly though it really looks done to me and we should continue down more tomorrow. But you know how they like to manipulate the charts and trick the bears, so I’m just throwing that out there as a “possible” but unlikely scenario.
What should happen is that we open in the morning (probably down) and rally to that falling trendline on the SPY around 198.20 right now. That would be around 1982 SPX area I guess. A lower high then today’s high, which would setup a big move down on Thursday.
I don’t trust SkyNet on second. This looks too easy right now and they never let us bears in. I suspect we’ll open down tomorrow to lure in the last bear. Then rip all day into the FOMC meeting to hit that falling trendline. If that happens I’d look to get short. If not then I just missed this move down.
So far we’ve yet to get that smaller C wave up. Obummer is talking soon about sanctions on the Russians again. My best guess is that things will calm down afterhours and we’ll rally up tomorrow morning to that upper falling trendline on that triangle.
It should have fallen to around 198.20 SPY by then. If we have a gap open and hit that level I’ll be shorting it in a 198/194 put spread expiring next Friday. Meaning I’ll buy the 198 and sell the 194.
They don’t usually let the bears in short this easily. There should be another move up tomorrow morning. Of course I could be wrong and this time they just tank it? If so, I’ll just sit this move out as I’m not chasing it and getting another bad entry like I did on the long previously.
looks good. I’m thinking of exiting by Thursday
Here’s the wave count that I’m seeing now. I’m waiting until the close today as that’s when I think we’ll see our best shorting opportunity: http://screencast.com/t/dklEbSSXXC
Best spot to short in my opinion… http://screencast.com/t/N5UMoGEjyc
agreed that I wouldn’t jump in now, I’m already (still) short so just keeping that going for now
I get the feeling they will chop around all day into the close and make a bear flag going into tomorrow. Possibly Yellen says something at the FOMC that the market doesn’t like and will therefore allow this C wave down to continue?
Most FOMC days are positive, but maybe it’s time for a negative one? Of course they won’t blame it on Yellen but on the sanctions instead.
Yes, you are correct. I think we are starting that larger wave C down to the 1940 SPX area. Should be small bounces along the way as this will likely be an ugly move down.
I’m going to just wait patiently to see if there’s any bounces later today. If so then I’ll take a short position but right now I’m not doing anything as it’s like trying to catch a falling knife and I don’t want to get cut again…. LOL