I do not know He just states the low is in June. His cycles can be pretty wide. His trend seem to be fairly accurate but his short to midterm timing can be off by weeks IMO
TNA was a Hold today, was down 14.7%, and is a likely sell for Monday morning. TNA bought at $47.73 and closed today at $41.89, down 12.2% since the buy.
TZA was a Hold today, was up 14.6% today, and closed today at $7.54, up 6.6% since the buy. TZA is a Hold again for Monday.
Of the ETFs I *really* follow, these are to hold on to: RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT) SRS (-2x RE), DRV (-3x RE)
The list to avoid: IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: TNA (3x $RUT)
Comment: One reason I look at the 1x, 2x and the 3x of an ETF is to see if AmericanBulls is treating them all the same. Today is a headscratcher: TNA (3x) is a likely Sell, but IWM(1x) & UWM(2x) are likely Buys. I conclude that the candlesticks are out of the norm, and less trustworthy here. Or the market is out of the norm.
Summary: Very Bearish No new Buys or Sells today.
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA & likely sell TNA
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
This trade owned TZA today. AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, which means no buying & no selling. TZA opened up 7.9%, and the opening gap was not filled. TZA was up 15.8% at it’s high, and closed up 14.9%. TZA closed at $7.55, with this trade now up 6.6%. AmericanBulls has TZA as a Hold again for tomorrow.
This trade also owned TNA today with a Hold, which means no buying & no selling. TNA opened down 7.8%, and the opening gap was not filled. TNA was down 5.2% at it’s high, and closed down 14.7%. TNA closed at $41.90, with this trade now down 12.2%. AmericanBulls has TNA as a quite likely Sell tomorrow.
Since this trade owned both TNA & TZA today, today was roughly a wash.
TZA gap from today ($6.57 to $6.92) remains unfilled. TNA gap from today ($49.17 to $46.60) remains unfilled.
Volume for TNA today was 23% above it’s 1 month average. Volume for TZA today was 5% below it’s 1 month average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 18.3% with TZA up 14.9%. No divergence.
TNA closed today as the lowest close in over 3 months (Feb 12th). Bad for TNA. TZA closed today as the highest close in the past 6 days. Good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 39.7 to 51.6 (+11.9) while TZA was up 14.9%. No divergence. Ultimate Oscillator for TNA fell from 56.6 to 44.4 (-12.2) while TNA was down 14.7%. No divergence.
TZA MACD both lines are > 0 and rising. Good for TZA. TNA MACD both lines are < 0 and falling. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX was entirely above the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are generally falling. Neutral.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long red candle that closed near (but still above) the 200 day MA. $RUT has not closed below the 200 day moving average for about a year. MACD fast line is falling again & the slow line is flat. Good for TZA.
Three days ago, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume. Two days ago, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume. Yesterday, NYSE Up volume was 1.7 times the down volume. Today, NYSE Down volume was a zillion times the up volume. Actually only 119, but that’s like a zillion. Pretty much. Good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 668 million flowing into the market 2 days ago. $ 887 million flowing into the market yesterday. $ 2,643 million flowing out the market today. Good for TZA.
Overall, Good for TNA for tomorrow. TZA was overdone today – Monday goes to TNA.
The one most basic point the experts and bulls are missing while evaluating these markets is related to future earnings and PE ratios in valuating the price of a stock.
What they all forget is the historic valuations are not applicable when hyper inflation kicks in.
If a PE ratio of 15 is moderate in normal times what price and PE is acceptable in periods of high inflation? I would maintain that ratios in the 6-10 range may be the norm as acceptable in such an environment. Therefor where will the market go to achieve those new norms? Well i believe prices will have to drop close to 50% and possibly more.
The definition of inflation is the increase in money supply. Price increases that we deal with on a daily , monthly basis are merely a consequence of inflation and those consequences may not have shown their ugliness as of yet.
Intel may be a great company and at a price of 21 and a PE ratio of 19 under old rules it may be fairly priced against future earnings. But not if you are in an environment of 18% inflation such as the Carter years oif the late 70's. many of you may be too young to remember of know what interest rates were during that period.
That's why I'm leaning toward a gap down first, and some type of rebound back to work off the intraday (15 and 60 minute charts) oversold conditions.
It may only bounce back to a 50% fib. level from the open to gap down low, or it could just trade sideways for awhile to work it off? That's why I stayed 80% short.
DOW JONES Falling wedge in line chart
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
I do not know He just states the low is in June. His cycles can be pretty wide. His trend seem to be fairly accurate but his short to midterm timing can be off by weeks IMO
LOL Pez…
I'm sure the Bulls will find some more crack some time next week… after we take out the current lows first of course.
Bad week to quit crack if you were trying to play the inverse H&S
DOW JONES Analysis after closing bell 04-06-2010
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010…
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a Hold today, was down 14.7%, and is a likely sell for Monday morning. TNA bought at $47.73 and closed today at $41.89, down 12.2% since the buy.
TZA was a Hold today, was up 14.6% today, and closed today at $7.54, up 6.6% since the buy. TZA is a Hold again for Monday.
Of the ETFs I *really* follow, these are to hold on to:
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
SRS (-2x RE), DRV (-3x RE)
The list to avoid:
IYR(1x RE), URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: TNA (3x $RUT)
Comment: One reason I look at the 1x, 2x and the 3x of an ETF is to see if AmericanBulls is treating them all the same. Today is a headscratcher: TNA (3x) is a likely Sell, but IWM(1x) & UWM(2x) are likely Buys. I conclude that the candlesticks are out of the norm, and less trustworthy here. Or the market is out of the norm.
Summary: Very Bearish
No new Buys or Sells today.
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA & likely sell TNA
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
This trade owned TZA today. AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, which means no buying & no selling. TZA opened up 7.9%, and the opening gap was not filled. TZA was up 15.8% at it’s high, and closed up 14.9%. TZA closed at $7.55, with this trade now up 6.6%. AmericanBulls has TZA as a Hold again for tomorrow.
This trade also owned TNA today with a Hold, which means no buying & no selling. TNA opened down 7.8%, and the opening gap was not filled. TNA was down 5.2% at it’s high, and closed down 14.7%. TNA closed at $41.90, with this trade now down 12.2%. AmericanBulls has TNA as a quite likely Sell tomorrow.
Since this trade owned both TNA & TZA today, today was roughly a wash.
TZA gap from today ($6.57 to $6.92) remains unfilled.
TNA gap from today ($49.17 to $46.60) remains unfilled.
Volume for TNA today was 23% above it’s 1 month average.
Volume for TZA today was 5% below it’s 1 month average.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 18.3% with TZA up 14.9%. No divergence.
TNA closed today as the lowest close in over 3 months (Feb 12th). Bad for TNA.
TZA closed today as the highest close in the past 6 days. Good for TZA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA rose from 39.7 to 51.6 (+11.9) while TZA was up 14.9%. No divergence.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA fell from 56.6 to 44.4 (-12.2) while TNA was down 14.7%. No divergence.
TZA MACD both lines are > 0 and rising. Good for TZA.
TNA MACD both lines are < 0 and falling. Bad for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX was entirely above the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are generally falling. Neutral.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long red candle that closed near (but still above) the 200 day MA. $RUT has not closed below the 200 day moving average for about a year. MACD fast line is falling again & the slow line is flat. Good for TZA.
Three days ago, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume.
Two days ago, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume.
Yesterday, NYSE Up volume was 1.7 times the down volume.
Today, NYSE Down volume was a zillion times the up volume. Actually only 119, but that’s like a zillion. Pretty much.
Good for TZA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 668 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 887 million flowing into the market yesterday.
$ 2,643 million flowing out the market today.
Good for TZA.
Overall, Good for TNA for tomorrow. TZA was overdone today – Monday goes to TNA.
The one most basic point the experts and bulls are missing while evaluating these markets is related to future earnings and PE ratios in valuating the price of a stock.
What they all forget is the historic valuations are not applicable when hyper inflation kicks in.
If a PE ratio of 15 is moderate in normal times what price and PE is acceptable in periods of high inflation? I would maintain that ratios in the 6-10 range may be the norm as acceptable in such an environment. Therefor where will the market go to achieve those new norms? Well i believe prices will have to drop close to 50% and possibly more.
The definition of inflation is the increase in money supply. Price increases that we deal with on a daily , monthly basis are merely a consequence of inflation and those consequences may not have shown their ugliness as of yet.
Intel may be a great company and at a price of 21 and a PE ratio of 19 under old rules it may be fairly priced against future earnings. But not if you are in an environment of 18% inflation such as the Carter years oif the late 70's. many of you may be too young to remember of know what interest rates were during that period.
Just food for thought.
Exactly Jim…
That's why I'm leaning toward a gap down first, and some type of rebound back to work off the intraday (15 and 60 minute charts) oversold conditions.
It may only bounce back to a 50% fib. level from the open to gap down low, or it could just trade sideways for awhile to work it off? That's why I stayed 80% short.
My most lucrative have been AAPL put options, of which I haven't any right now, due to the premiums. I also made some good money on SDS call options.
When I was a bull (before April) I liked undervalued midcaps with good earnings. That's my usual thing, not the 'name' stocks.
I like these 3X ETFs, may never buy another stock again unless it's something I really like.