First the first time, I feel like I'm the only blogger left that's still bearish. It seems everyone else is looking for 1120, or 1140-1150 for the right shoulder.
Maybe that's a good thing that I'm one of the few still bearish, as the market tries to hurt the most about of people it can…. and this time I'm in the minority camp.
TNA was a possible buy today, and closed up, so was bought at the opening price – $47.73. (Yes, time travel was required).
TZA was a hold today, no sells, no buys. TZA was down 3.8% today, and this trade is now down 6.9%. In spite of being down over 8% yesterday & down 3.8% today, TZA is a Hold for tomorrow. (Sounds pretty stupid).
Of the ETFs I *really* follow, these are to hold on to: TNA (3x $RUT) , TZA (-3x $RUT) DRV (-3x RE)
The list to avoid: URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT) IYR(1x RE)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT) SRS (-2x RE)
Summary: Transitioning from Bearish to Bullish New Buys today on: TNA (3x $RUT)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA & Hold TNA Note: While the positions here on TNA & TZA make no sense (to me), AmericanBulls is consistent on the 1x and 2x versions (which is why I look at them all the time). Possible sell on the inverse, possible buy on the positive.
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
This trade owned TZA today, and AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, which means no buying & no selling. TZA opened down 0.4%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.8% at it’s high, and closed down 3.8%. TZA closed at $6.57, with this trade down 6.9%. AmericanBulls has TZA as a Hold again for tomorrow, which seems insane.
On the other hand, AmericanBulls has TNA as a Buy today, with a buy price of $47.73, the opening price. So, while it makes no particular sense, this Trade will buy TNA at $47.73 and own both TNA and TZA until one (or both, I guess) gets a sell signal.
Volume for TNA today was 2% below it’s 1 month average. Volume for TZA today was 24% below it’s 1 month average. Not good for TZA.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 3.9% with TZA down 3.8%. No divergence.
TZA closed today as the lowest close in the past 10 days. Bad for TZA. TNA closed today as the highest close in the past 4 days. Good for TNA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 44.2 to 39.7 (-4.5) while TZA was down 3.8%. No divergence. Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 51.8 to 56.6 (+4.8) while TNA was up 3.8%. No divergence.
TZA MACD both lines are > 0. The slow line is still rising, but the fast line fell today to touch the slow line. Bad for TZA. TNA MACD both lines are < 0. The slow line is flat, but the fast line rose today to touch the slow line. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell further below the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are falling. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a white candle that closed near the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The last time that happened, $RUT was at it’s peak and fell from there. MACD fast line is rising to touch the fast line & the slow line is flat. Complete mixed signals. Neutral.
Two days ago, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume. Yesterday, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume. Today, NYSE Up volume was 1.7 times the down volume. Good for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 961 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago. $ 668 million flowing into the market yesterday. $ 887 million flowing into the market today. Good for TNA.
There are a lot of confusing signals, but the weekly chart tells me we are going down next week. If it doesn't start selling off tomorrow (as I expect it too), then Monday should start it.
Bulls seem to forget that we ain't above the moving averages on weekly chart anymore… we are below them. That hasn't happened since the March, 2009 low, and believe me… it makes a big difference now, as compared to the ride up from last year.
I can feel your confusion…I have always gone with…if the vol is weak and there are more down vol than up…we go down…but from the feb low this thinking didnt work till it did…low vol and high low days…it still rose till may then tanked…I got to get back in for a short …I am cash right now…
For example, check out the weekly S&P Charts. They are not what I would call bullish.
My gut is when volume is low different forces pull different directions and a clear path is not showing the way.
it looks like we may still see a right shoulder develop but perhaps with a weak volume and possibly not as strong as some think.
ADP data today was not good. tomorrow will be gov't numbers which nobody trusts anymore and in the least will include a tremendous number of census workers.
The Nenner cycles still call for another low in June???
The Bam people have a few days yet to see if they are on or not.
Thanks NewBear…
First the first time, I feel like I'm the only blogger left that's still bearish. It seems everyone else is looking for 1120, or 1140-1150 for the right shoulder.
Maybe that's a good thing that I'm one of the few still bearish, as the market tries to hurt the most about of people it can…. and this time I'm in the minority camp.
LOL
Great post red, looks like we really have to wait and see where ms. market wants to go tomorrow.
Diablos – can you share how you came up with this projection …
Also, if you could share the MA chart that you had shared once before ….
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a possible buy today, and closed up, so was bought at the opening price – $47.73. (Yes, time travel was required).
TZA was a hold today, no sells, no buys. TZA was down 3.8% today, and this trade is now down 6.9%. In spite of being down over 8% yesterday & down 3.8% today, TZA is a Hold for tomorrow. (Sounds pretty stupid).
Of the ETFs I *really* follow, these are to hold on to:
TNA (3x $RUT) , TZA (-3x $RUT)
DRV (-3x RE)
The list to avoid:
URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
IYR(1x RE)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow:
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT)
SRS (-2x RE)
Summary: Transitioning from Bearish to Bullish
New Buys today on: TNA (3x $RUT)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA & Hold TNA
Note: While the positions here on TNA & TZA make no sense (to me), AmericanBulls is consistent on the 1x and 2x versions (which is why I look at them all the time). Possible sell on the inverse, possible buy on the positive.
I've heard that Nenner is very good. I suppose there is enough time to pop for a right shoulder and then down hard?
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
This trade owned TZA today, and AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, which means no buying & no selling. TZA opened down 0.4%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.8% at it’s high, and closed down 3.8%. TZA closed at $6.57, with this trade down 6.9%. AmericanBulls has TZA as a Hold again for tomorrow, which seems insane.
On the other hand, AmericanBulls has TNA as a Buy today, with a buy price of $47.73, the opening price. So, while it makes no particular sense, this Trade will buy TNA at $47.73 and own both TNA and TZA until one (or both, I guess) gets a sell signal.
Volume for TNA today was 2% below it’s 1 month average.
Volume for TZA today was 24% below it’s 1 month average. Not good for TZA.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 3.9% with TZA down 3.8%. No divergence.
TZA closed today as the lowest close in the past 10 days. Bad for TZA.
TNA closed today as the highest close in the past 4 days. Good for TNA.
Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 44.2 to 39.7 (-4.5) while TZA was down 3.8%. No divergence.
Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 51.8 to 56.6 (+4.8) while TNA was up 3.8%. No divergence.
TZA MACD both lines are > 0. The slow line is still rising, but the fast line fell today to touch the slow line. Bad for TZA.
TNA MACD both lines are < 0. The slow line is flat, but the fast line rose today to touch the slow line. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell further below the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are falling. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a white candle that closed near the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The last time that happened, $RUT was at it’s peak and fell from there. MACD fast line is rising to touch the fast line & the slow line is flat. Complete mixed signals. Neutral.
Two days ago, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume.
Yesterday, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume.
Today, NYSE Up volume was 1.7 times the down volume.
Good for TNA.
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 961 million flowing out of the market 2 days ago.
$ 668 million flowing into the market yesterday.
$ 887 million flowing into the market today.
Good for TNA.
Overall, Good for TNA for tomorrow.
Do you know WHEN in June is the Nenner low?
Yes Jim,
There are a lot of confusing signals, but the weekly chart tells me we are going down next week. If it doesn't start selling off tomorrow (as I expect it too), then Monday should start it.
Bulls seem to forget that we ain't above the moving averages on weekly chart anymore… we are below them. That hasn't happened since the March, 2009 low, and believe me… it makes a big difference now, as compared to the ride up from last year.
I can feel your confusion…I have always gone with…if the vol is weak and there are more down vol than up…we go down…but from the feb low this thinking didnt work till it did…low vol and high low days…it still rose till may then tanked…I got to get back in for a short …I am cash right now…
There are a lot of conflicting signals.
For example, check out the weekly S&P Charts. They are not what I would call bullish.
My gut is when volume is low different forces pull different directions and a clear path is not showing the way.
it looks like we may still see a right shoulder develop but perhaps with a weak volume and possibly not as strong as some think.
ADP data today was not good. tomorrow will be gov't numbers which nobody trusts anymore and in the least will include a tremendous number of census workers.
The Nenner cycles still call for another low in June???
The Bam people have a few days yet to see if they are on or not.