The market still needs to put in another lower low, in order to have a positive divergence occur. It still hasn't do that yet… which means that it will fall again.
The question is “When”? This week, or next week? I can't answer that, but something tells me the selling will start this week. Maybe tomorrow, or maybe on Friday after the wonderful jobs report? But another low is coming. This isn't over, and the bull market is back… that's one thing I'm pretty sure of.
Let's put Persevento and BAMinvestors to the test.
Persevento saw the bear coming perhpas June 2nd but things get ugly June 4,7&8 to June 26
Bam investors see June 4th (friday) and on as a really BAD period ie bears rejoice.
Maybe both of these sources are wrong. I'm going to find out.
Also on Danerics latest post, Comments section. The e mini did not have a divergence on its recent low (MACD) and now the stochastic is nearly over bought and crossing over. Very bearish they say.
TNA was a Wait today, no sells, no buys. TNA was up 8.5% today, and is a possible but unlikely buy for tomorrow. Should TNA be bought tomorrow, then both TNA and TZA would be owned at the same time.
TZA was a hold today, no sells, no buys. TZA was down 8.5% today, and this trade is now down 3.1%. In spite of being down over 8% today, TZA is a Hold for tomorrow. (Not sure I fully comprehend the wisdom of this).
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to: AAPL DRI GOOG EWQ(France) RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT) DRV (-3x RE) SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil) ERY (-3x energy) FAZ (-3x Financials) EPV (-2x Europe) SPXU (-3x $SPX) QID (-2x QQQQ)
The list to avoid: IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT) URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE) UUP(US Dollar) SLV(silver) USO(oil), UCO(2x Oil) GS QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ) EWG(Germany) EWU(England) DZZ (-2x Gold)
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow: TNA (3x $RUT) ERX(3x energy) AMZN SPY
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow : GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow: IYR(1x RE) DIA EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow: SRS (-2x RE) DXD (-2x DOW30)
Summary: A bit more bullish than “Very Bearish” New Sells today on: none New Buys today on: EWQ(France)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA, Possible Buy on TNA
Me too NewBear… I'm fully short and just hanging tough for now. I know it's coming… if not tomorrow, then next week. Of course the time decay and continued upward movement can wipe out you position before it falls. Chance we all take I guess…
It's do or die time for the bears it seems. A gap up tomorrow will seal the coffin for the bears for awhile. A gap down will seal the coffin for the bulls for awhile. Which will it be? I don't know yet?
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
TZA opened down 1.8%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.9% at it’s high, and closed down 8.5%.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, no buying, no selling. TZA closed at $6.84, with this trade down 3.2%.
Volume for TNA today was 10% below it’s 1 month average. Volume for TZA today was 17% below it’s 1 month average. Not good for TZA.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 10.1% with TZA down 8.5%. No divergence.
TZA closed today above only 1 of the last 9 daily closes. Not good for TZA.
The recent (9 days) low for TZA was 1 day ago at $6.59. Today’s low was $6.83, 3.6% higher.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 45.2 to 44.2 (-1.0) while TZA was down 8.5%. No divergence.
MACD both lines are > 0. The slow line is still rising, but the fast line fell today. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell to close at the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are falling. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long white candle – a mirror image of yesterdays long red candle. Still looks like it peaked 3 days ago. MACD fast line is rising, slow line is falling. OK for TZA.
Yesterday, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume. Today, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume. Bad for TZA.
TZA had a higher high & higher low & much lower close (Bad for TZA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 792 million flowing into the market 2 days ago. $ 961 million flowing out of the market yesterday. $ 668 million flowing into the market today. Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
The market still needs to put in another lower low, in order to have a positive divergence occur. It still hasn't do that yet… which means that it will fall again.
The question is “When”? This week, or next week? I can't answer that, but something tells me the selling will start this week. Maybe tomorrow, or maybe on Friday after the wonderful jobs report? But another low is coming. This isn't over, and the bull market is back… that's one thing I'm pretty sure of.
Let's put Persevento and BAMinvestors to the test.
Persevento saw the bear coming perhpas June 2nd but things get ugly June 4,7&8 to June 26
Bam investors see June 4th (friday) and on as a really BAD period ie bears rejoice.
Maybe both of these sources are wrong. I'm going to find out.
Also on Danerics latest post, Comments section. The e mini did not have a divergence on its recent low (MACD) and now the stochastic is nearly over bought and crossing over. Very bearish they say.
In addition to an excellent Bloglist on Red's site, here is another one
breakpointtrades.com/
They have a two week free trial and a lot of mechanical systems that work very well. (I wish I had some money)
I would not ignore these guys
the main thing to listen/watch is their daily videos which usually are posted late at night for the next day
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a Wait today, no sells, no buys. TNA was up 8.5% today, and is a possible but unlikely buy for tomorrow. Should TNA be bought tomorrow, then both TNA and TZA would be owned at the same time.
TZA was a hold today, no sells, no buys. TZA was down 8.5% today, and this trade is now down 3.1%. In spite of being down over 8% today, TZA is a Hold for tomorrow. (Not sure I fully comprehend the wisdom of this).
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
AAPL
DRI
GOOG
EWQ(France)
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
DRV (-3x RE)
SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
ERY (-3x energy)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
EPV (-2x Europe)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
The list to avoid:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
UUP(US Dollar)
SLV(silver)
USO(oil), UCO(2x Oil)
GS
QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ)
EWG(Germany)
EWU(England)
DZZ (-2x Gold)
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
TNA (3x $RUT)
ERX(3x energy)
AMZN
SPY
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)
The following are quite likely buys tomorrow:
IYR(1x RE)
DIA
EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are quite likely sells tomorrow:
SRS (-2x RE)
DXD (-2x DOW30)
Summary: A bit more bullish than “Very Bearish”
New Sells today on: none
New Buys today on: EWQ(France)
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA, Possible Buy on TNA
Me too NewBear… I'm fully short and just hanging tough for now. I know it's coming… if not tomorrow, then next week. Of course the time decay and continued upward movement can wipe out you position before it falls. Chance we all take I guess…
Hi Red, it seems we come to these junctures quite frequently I'm mostly short so it may be a little painful.
Yes Phoevos…
It's do or die time for the bears it seems. A gap up tomorrow will seal the coffin for the bears for awhile. A gap down will seal the coffin for the bulls for awhile. Which will it be? I don't know yet?
Problem is that market might go up maybe 50-75 SPX points from here, if not higher:
http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-out-shorts…
We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.
TZA opened down 1.8%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.9% at it’s high, and closed down 8.5%.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, no buying, no selling. TZA closed at $6.84, with this trade down 3.2%.
Volume for TNA today was 10% below it’s 1 month average.
Volume for TZA today was 17% below it’s 1 month average. Not good for TZA.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 10.1% with TZA down 8.5%. No divergence.
TZA closed today above only 1 of the last 9 daily closes. Not good for TZA.
The recent (9 days) low for TZA was 1 day ago at $6.59. Today’s low was $6.83, 3.6% higher.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 45.2 to 44.2 (-1.0) while TZA was down 8.5%. No divergence.
MACD both lines are > 0. The slow line is still rising, but the fast line fell today. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell to close at the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are falling. Bad for TZA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long white candle – a mirror image of yesterdays long red candle. Still looks like it peaked 3 days ago. MACD fast line is rising, slow line is falling. OK for TZA.
Yesterday, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume.
Today, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume.
Bad for TZA.
TZA had a higher high & higher low & much lower close (Bad for TZA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 792 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 961 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 668 million flowing into the market today.
Bad for TZA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, Bad for TZA for tomorrow.
Yeah, that last hour was a killer.
We're still under 200dma, though.