Saturday, July 13, 2024

Rollercoaster Ride…

The wild swings today felt like riding a rollercoaster ride...

Today was a great day to be a day trader, but swing traders were probably sweating bullets.  I remained calm and didn't close out my short position until the end of the day.  It's hard to say what tomorrow will bring, but more selling is coming, before we have a large rally back up.

The charts are telling me that we could actually gap down again tomorrow, as both the 60 minute and 15 minute charts are now pointing down.  However, I do believe there will be a short bounce in the morning, as dip buyers and day traders speculate on big move back up.

Will it happen?  I doubt it... but a bounce of some degree is still likely.  The close was at a double bottom from the afterhours low put in Monday night.  That's another reason I expect a small bounce.  Light volume throughout the day is also another reason to expect a bounce in the morning.

But, make not mistake about it... this market is very bearish right now, and I do expect more selling tomorrow and Thursday. I think the next 2 days could but in a lower low, with some panic selling once we break the double bottom area around 104 spy.

So, not a long post today.  If you are short, I'd stay short, unless you are trying to swing/day trade a little like myself.  I only did so because I didn't like the position I was in.  I plan to get a better position tomorrow.  Again, the market is very bearish right now, and bounces can be shorted... until we put in a lower low.  Then I expect a nice rally up for a week or so.  After that... well that's for another post.

Red

Red
Author: Red

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jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

I noticed in Anna's Videos she did not address today's scenario of the gap down, recovery and then negative reversal

We may not be setting up the eventual rise to 1140 as many expect. i will be interested in what Chart trader sees tonight.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Those video's are from Sunday, so I'm sure things have changed since then. She's very bearish… don't worry about that. She probably thinking the same thing I was, which was a “possible” move up 1120 or 1140. I don't see it in the cards now. I see a huge dump in the next couple of days Jim. Be ready.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I have been carrying short etf's but not at a level i would if i knew more. I am at the highest cash level I have been in a long time.

But i do not like chasing on the way down if a dump is truly materializing. Based on today's charts i see a bloody week also unless the dip buyers can get some semblance of contol.

the futures as normal are useless but positive at the moment.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Jim,

Did you listen to BAM Investors free conference call tonight? I just hung up, and they are calling for a minimum of 944 spx between their first crash window of June 4th-8th.

Second crash window is around June 21st (plus or minus a few days). That window could produce a move as low as 680 spx. Now, I don't know if we get that low or not, but if everyone tries to sell all at once… we could tank pretty far down, and in a quick time period.

I might even sign up for their membership service, as they gave a lot of good reasons behind their target levels. That 944 level could happen by this Friday.

I'm not taking any long positions for awhile, as it's too dangerous to get caught long on a sell off down. I'd rather be caught short on a squeeze up, as I'll just wait for the squeeze to end and go back down. I don't see it the other way around.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I did not but Iam seeing more and more gloom and doom. I have no long positions and am not interested at this time.

I subscibe to Weiss, Neener and hey are talking later in yera for a major drop. The guy on Market watch is just plain go for your guns. Of witch iam well armed.

i will try to listen to a replay of the bam

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red!

Anna
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Hey Jim 🙂 on the sunday video I mentioned we would either have a huge gap down on Tuesday or Gap up then reverse the direction, then reverse again LOL which we did Good luck trading today and visit HOB now and again 🙂

anoopsan
14 years ago
Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

I've got a bad vibe on today after learning that last Thursday was a major accumulation day. We have retraced about 50% of that gain, and I think we are due for a rally for a couple of days.

Leading economic indicators are pretty rosy, too:

http://www.bullandbearwise.com/

Going to take some profits today, I think. Not going to chase it, though, if the market opens higher. I think it needs to test support after the elaborate top of the past few days.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

Funny – I feel the opposite. Think we open at the highs and then plummet. But again, it's just a feeling.

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

You could be right!

I guess I'm just tired of having profits snatched away. 🙂

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

At this point I will have to go with Mon…all charts have MA aligned all macd going down…my hr and wk charts are not aligned with the SMA but the macd is down…I am going with up on open then get in for short…

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  bigbadwolfusa

Good to hear!

I don't believe in trading in the first hour anyway, unless I feel that I should have done something last night, which I don't.

Thinking maybe a mid-day turnaround after going to 1050 or so. If we have a rally, it will just be a bear trap, IMO.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

It only takes a few burns to realize placing trades near open is nuts.

bigbadwolfusa
bigbadwolfusa
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

all day yesterday it tried to get through the 50 on the 15 and couldn't do it and on the daily it cant get through the 200 after two tries. so I think with all my great wisdom ( about .02 worth) we could go up to 109 on the 15 min that would be 50sma or the 200sma on the daily 110.51

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl’s morning call:

June S&P E-mini Futures: Today's range estimate is 1060-1085. I think the low at 1036.75 ended the drop from 1216. I had thought that the “base building” process was over, but instead we have seen another break of more than thirty points. I believe the drop from Friday's early high at 1107 will end above the low at 1055.50 made late on May 26. Once the market stabilizes a move to 1300 will start.

1067.25 – 1078 range last night (10.75 points)
For the past 9 days, the over night range has averaged 22.6 points.

1060-1085 estimate for today (25 points)
1073 currently, so estimate is -13 to +12 from here (neutral)

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

I'm short again gang…

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Added a little. very weak market.

anoopsan
14 years ago
Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Gang, if you haven't signed up for BAM Investors free trial… you need too. They are calling for a fall to 944 minimum in the crash window of June 4th-8th.

You can listen to a recording of yesterdays' 30 minute conference call if you go sign up now. The trial ends this Friday, but the recording is available now.

Go to http://www.baminvestor.com, and listen to the recording! It's important that you do it quickly.

dpz
dpz
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Where is the recording? Can't see it…

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dpz

Once you login, click on the “bonus” link, and the recording is there.

dpz
dpz
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Leo….unfortunately for europe access denied….no login possibility on my screen…

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dpz

Try this direct link. Maybe it will work?

http://baminvestor.com/members/wp-content/uploa

By the way, I'm only posting it because they are offering it for free right now. Otherwise, I wouldn't post it as it's a paid membership site.

dpz
dpz
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Now I got it! Thank you.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  dpz

ditto

anoopsan
14 years ago

Dow Jones Triangle in 2 hours time frame
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Looks like we “may” have topped here, as we have now hit the 108.60 intraday fake print from yesterday. However, the 60 minute chart is still pushing up, which could give us a little higher target?

Next target up is around 109.15, which is the upper channel trendline, and should be good resistance.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

thanks red.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Well, we hit the upper channel trendline at 109.13, and backed off a little bit. The 15 minute chart looks topped now, and should be rolling over soon.

The 60 minute chart is still pushing up, so we could chop around here all day, until the 60 peaks and rolls over into tomorrow.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Are we overbought yet on the 60?! This is so tedious!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

No Monica, it's probably going to take all day to peak out. But, when it rolls over into the close or tomorrow morning, we should get another leg down to the 1040 area or so.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

k.

ashsail10
ashsail10
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Red, at what level are you going to add your shorts?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  ashsail10

I already bought them earlier this morning, but I sure would have like to have bought them now. The 15 minute chart is peaked, and the 60 will be by the end of the day most likely. Now would be a great spot to add shorts.

ashsail10
ashsail10
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Thanks Red. I will buy it now.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Does anyone know if the short sale rule in the US is to be implemented and if so when?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

I can't find anything recent? When I google it, is all dated around February 25th, 2010.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

me neither..

anoopsan
14 years ago

SP 500 Approaching resistance area

http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

You're good, San.

1092 is another, depending how you draw them. Also 12 dma.

Got to say, though, this is not looking good.

anoopsan
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

RUSSELL 2000 Index bullish flag break out
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

anoopsan
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

It seems 1092 will also be take out

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Yes, too bad!

Does SPX look like a head and shoulders to you, with neckline at 1070?

anoopsan
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

which time frame

dpz
dpz
14 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan
anoopsan
14 years ago
Reply to  Rip Van Trader

I am assuming it to be the daily time frame. For this to be a head and shoulders the index should not move higher from here. It should either stop here or start coming down. Then may be it can form one H&S

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  anoopsan

Was hoping you might agree. Thanks, San!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Gang,

We are at a crossroads where we could going higher into Friday. Or, we go down into Friday. Right now it's leaning to the bearish side, but we need to take out that 1065 level to get moving down to 944-990 area.

Rumor has is it, that the Friday job's report will be great. So, if we go down below 1065 today, then a panic sell could happen on Thursday and take the market down hard and fast.

But, it should rally on the Friday morning jobs report if it tanks tomorrow. So, I will close out all short at the end of the day tomorrow… if we sell off?

On the bullish side, if we take out the 1104 high from a few days ago, then we should rally until the end of the week and possibly next week.

The 60 minute chart looks to be rolling back down now, after failing to rise above the zero line. The 15 minute chart is also peaked, and rolling over as I type this. It's leaning bearish right now, but anything can happen, so be prepared to cut your shorts loose if we rally hard into the close.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Mr. Topstep for those of you that are bored right now. No much good info on this video though…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxgb5CA8lvE

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

here comes the short squeeze. i'm staying put.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Yes Monica,

I big short squeeze is going on now, but I don't know at this point if we are going down tomorrow or not? Scary right now being a bear.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

yes, but i think they are trying to scare the bears out so they can take it down. it's never easy, is it?

dpz
dpz
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The goal is to….scare off bears, making sure their Stop Loses react….and then? in a day or two …….attack?

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  dpz

my thoughts exactly. Where is your avatar?!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  dpz

Exactly…

Scare them all out of the market, and then sell it off hard. I'm staying short, even though I'm underwater on my position. Selling is coming soon.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

Looks like they are going to try for that bounce after all.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

It's looking like they want to run the tape up into the job's report this Friday Jim.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

watch them close it at 10200 just to confuse everyone.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

I agree. i will add short positions Friday but I have a feeling the jobs numbers are going to back fire.

Word i am getting is the vast majority of kids graduating collage are not finding much. That s 3,200,000 new applications.

The company I founded and sold years ago has 3 positions coming from retirement attrition and over 100 applications for each. not good odds.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

The volume seems very light.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  jimhobson

Light volume usually lets the market float higher, so that is too be expected. We need heavy volume to come in, as it will likely be selling.

anoopsan
14 years ago

RUSSELL 2000 Index bullish flag break out
http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2010

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

Red, how do the technicals look?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Technicals look very overbought now, but that doesn't mean we can't go higher tomorrow. It might be the ol' “buy the rumor, sell the news” on the jobs report.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

don't think so red. I think we have a little more upside here – like 2 S&P points and then kaboom tomorrow. But probably just wishful thinking on my part.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago

think we will go down now

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Push Monica Push… this bull has too be tired now. We need to see him fall off the cliff soon. Let's show him where the edge is… LOL

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

He's going to fall off now Red – don't you worry and check your email!

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  monicadern

Let's hope Alphahorn is right on his charts. It looks good too me, but I'm not an EW expert. I'll take it though…

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Everytime we have a rounded top like this, we crash hard after it.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Let's hope Alphahorn is right on his charts. It looks good too me, but I'm not an EW expert. I'll take it though…

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Let's hope Alphahorn is right on his charts. It looks good too me, but I'm not an EW expert. I'll take it though…

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Let's hope Alphahorn is right on his charts. It looks good too me, but I'm not an EW expert. I'll take it though…

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

The volume seems very light.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

The volume seems very light.

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

The volume seems very light.

anoopsan
14 years ago

I am assuming it to be the daily time frame. For this to be a head and shoulders the index should not move higher from here. It should either stop here or start coming down. Then may be it can form one H&S

anoopsan
14 years ago

I am assuming it to be the daily time frame. For this to be a head and shoulders the index should not move higher from here. It should either stop here or start coming down. Then may be it can form one H&S

anoopsan
14 years ago

I am assuming it to be the daily time frame. For this to be a head and shoulders the index should not move higher from here. It should either stop here or start coming down. Then may be it can form one H&S

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago

We have a divergence in stochastics when we went to 1095, shouldn't be going much higher (gulp).

Also still within 12dma (Sundancer's teal line), now on Day 4 at the edge! Something's got to give soon.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago

Wow…

Talk about a bear squeeze today! This was brutal for the bears. Hopeful the bulls will get squeezed just a hard over the coming few days.

monicadern
monicadern
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

you got that right!

jimhobson
jimhobson
14 years ago

Wow. The bulls control the day on no volume. tough for the shorts.
I added a few positions but should have waited till the end.

SC
SC
14 years ago

Decisive break above the teal lines across the board.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

It's looking quite bullish now.

SC
SC
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Just green shoots.

It will be clearer in a few more sessions.

Phoevos
Phoevos
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Apparently Obama said at a speech that the Friday jobs report will be exceptionally strong (500K ?)

Phoevos
Phoevos
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

So, what's the plan Leo? I thought I made a smart buy of FAZ at $15.20 late in the day and after going up at 15.45 the thing collapsed to $14.60 @ closing.

It looks as if the trend until the 6th might be up. What are your thoughts?

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Phoevos

I'm staying put… in my “puts” of course. I'll ride it out for the next few days if I have too. A big drop is coming, I can just feel it now.

Phoevos
Phoevos
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Problem is that market might go up maybe 50-75 SPX points from here, if not higher:

http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-out-shorts

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  Phoevos

Yes Phoevos…

It's do or die time for the bears it seems. A gap up tomorrow will seal the coffin for the bears for awhile. A gap down will seal the coffin for the bulls for awhile. Which will it be? I don't know yet?

newbear
newbear
14 years ago
Reply to  Red Dragon Leo

Hi Red, it seems we come to these junctures quite frequently I'm mostly short so it may be a little painful.

Red Dragon Leo
14 years ago
Reply to  newbear

Me too NewBear… I'm fully short and just hanging tough for now. I know it's coming… if not tomorrow, then next week. Of course the time decay and continued upward movement can wipe out you position before it falls. Chance we all take I guess…

Rip Van Trader
Rip Van Trader
14 years ago
Reply to  SC

Yeah, that last hour was a killer.

We're still under 200dma, though.

pezhead9000
14 years ago

chartpatterntrader – shows bull flag breakout
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CS

pezhead9000
14 years ago

And I was long and got stopped out 🙁

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

Carl at day’s end:

1060-1085 estimate for today (25 points)
1070.75–1098.25 actual range today (27.5 points )
Market was 10-13 points above Carl’s range.

For the past 10 days, average actual range is 26.2 points
Trades: No Trades today
Grade: C (lost no money)

In the past 10 trading days, Carl has taken just one trade, a loss of 4.75 points.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

We are now in a Full Moon Trade, which tends to favor TNA.

TZA opened down 1.8%, and the opening gap was filled. TZA was up 0.9% at it’s high, and closed down 8.5%.

AmericanBulls had TZA with a Hold today, no buying, no selling. TZA closed at $6.84, with this trade down 3.2%.

Volume for TNA today was 10% below it’s 1 month average.
Volume for TZA today was 17% below it’s 1 month average. Not good for TZA.

$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed down 10.1% with TZA down 8.5%. No divergence.

TZA closed today above only 1 of the last 9 daily closes. Not good for TZA.

The recent (9 days) low for TZA was 1 day ago at $6.59. Today’s low was $6.83, 3.6% higher.

Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TZA fell from 45.2 to 44.2 (-1.0) while TZA was down 8.5%. No divergence.

MACD both lines are > 0. The slow line is still rising, but the fast line fell today. Bad for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX fell to close at the Bollinger mid line (20 day MA). The fast & slow MACD lines are falling. Bad for TZA.

Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long white candle – a mirror image of yesterdays long red candle. Still looks like it peaked 3 days ago. MACD fast line is rising, slow line is falling. OK for TZA.

Yesterday, NYSE Down volume was 12.3 times the up volume.
Today, NYSE Up volume was 20 times the down volume.
Bad for TZA.

TZA had a higher high & higher low & much lower close (Bad for TZA)

Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 792 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 961 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 668 million flowing into the market today.
Bad for TZA.

I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.

Overall, Bad for TZA for tomorrow.

Earl of
Earl of
14 years ago

The Daily view from Americanbulls

TNA was a Wait today, no sells, no buys. TNA was up 8.5% today, and is a possible but unlikely buy for tomorrow. Should TNA be bought tomorrow, then both TNA and TZA would be owned at the same time.

TZA was a hold today, no sells, no buys. TZA was down 8.5% today, and this trade is now down 3.1%. In spite of being down over 8% today, TZA is a Hold for tomorrow. (Not sure I fully comprehend the wisdom of this).

Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
AAPL
DRI
GOOG
EWQ(France)
RWM (-1x $RUT), TWM (-2x $RUT), TZA (-3x $RUT)
DRV (-3x RE)
SCO (-2x Oil), DTO (-3x oil)
ERY (-3x energy)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
EPV (-2x Europe)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
QID (-2x QQQQ)

The list to avoid:
IWM (1x $RUT), UWM (2x $RUT)
URE(2x RE), DRN(3x RE)
UUP(US Dollar)
SLV(silver)
USO(oil), UCO(2x Oil)
GS
QQQQ, QLD (2x QQQQ)
EWG(Germany)
EWU(England)
DZZ (-2x Gold)

The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
TNA (3x $RUT)
ERX(3x energy)
AMZN
SPY

The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
GLD (gold), UGL (2x Gold)

The following are quite likely buys tomorrow:
IYR(1x RE)
DIA
EWX(emerging mkts)

The following are quite likely sells tomorrow:
SRS (-2x RE)
DXD (-2x DOW30)

Summary: A bit more bullish than “Very Bearish”
New Sells today on: none
New Buys today on: EWQ(France)

Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Hold TZA, Possible Buy on TNA

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