I took the afternoon off, figuring to come back to some very nice numbers, and was disturbed to find not only my morning gains wiped out, but a loss for the day!
Things don't look so bad, though. You can drive a truck through the MACD curves, VIX and put/call ratios are poised for a comeback. On my principal (well, only these days) short vehicle, SDS, volume was largely upside, i.e., downside for the market.
Hey, if we have a rally in the morning followed by a sharp decline, we could have a Hindenburg Omen. 30 new highs today vs. 99 last Thursday. We're in the ballpark.
Re: May expiration puts, the operators could be holding a lot of them by this time. They were very cheap around 1170.
I may change my tune if tomorrow is not a bearish reversal, but I plan to stick through the day at least.
P.S. A similar candlestick pattern to today's occurred before the final bottom in early July '09.
The dollar put in a bearish reversal candle today, and the euro put in a bullish reversal candle too. This means a rally in the market could happen, and should happen. How far up is the question? Will it take out the 1150 area, and end the downturn?
I don't know yet, but something doesn't seem right about the market only having that one major sell off day last Thursday and not having a re-test day. Most of the time, there is a second leg down, that takes out the first legs' low. It could wait until opx is over I guess, and then sell off hard?
I took the afternoon off, figuring to come back to some very nice numbers, and was disturbed to find not only my morning gains wiped out, but a loss for the day!
Things don't look so bad, though. You can drive a truck through the MACD curves, VIX and put/call ratios are poised for a comeback. On my principal (well, only these days) short vehicle, SDS, volume was largely upside, i.e., downside for the market.
Hey, if we have a rally in the morning followed by a sharp decline, we could have a Hindenburg Omen. 30 new highs today vs. 99 last Thursday. We're in the ballpark.
Re: May expiration puts, the operators could be holding a lot of them by this time. They were very cheap around 1170.
I may change my tune if tomorrow is not a bearish reversal, but I plan to stick through the day at least.
Perhaps (only perhaps) Europe may do something about the Euro.
a 200pip move would cause the stocks to rally.
This is what Kathy Lien has to say: “This evening, the Eurogroup has another opportunity to support the euro. Finance Ministers in the euro area is meeting in Brussels to discuss the market’s reaction to their rescue package, developments in Greece, Spain and Portugal’s accelerated fiscal programs and the euro. Luxembourg Prime Minister Junker said the euro will be “intensively discussed by ministers” and perhaps this is his way of warning us that the discussions could turn into action. The only reason why the EUR/USD has stabilized today is because of the upcoming event risks and more specifically, the possibility of another sensational announcement from European policymakers. Therefore the answer to the second question of what investors should do going forward is to brace for a short squeeze. If policymakers decide to verbally or physically intervene in the euro, the currency could see an aggressive rally to the scale of a few hundred pips.”
Let's not forget China. Down 5% yesterday What will it do tonight? Not open yet. and close to a key level according to McHugh (2,500) could “crash” if gets below 2,500. Don't bet your house on it.
Yeah… I'm with you Ben, but I'm still kicking myself for not taking some profit's today, when we hit 111.77 (almost gap fill at 111.30 from last Friday). I seen the bottoming candle form, but I just thought we would go back up and roll back down again in the EOD.
You win some, you lose some…. it's the story of my life.
Rip, my friend… you're starting to talk like Sundancer. LOL
Do you happen to have a chart of the July print you are talking about?
Reposting from the earlier thread:
I took the afternoon off, figuring to come back to some very nice numbers, and was disturbed to find not only my morning gains wiped out, but a loss for the day!
Things don't look so bad, though. You can drive a truck through the MACD curves, VIX and put/call ratios are poised for a comeback. On my principal (well, only these days) short vehicle, SDS, volume was largely upside, i.e., downside for the market.
Hey, if we have a rally in the morning followed by a sharp decline, we could have a Hindenburg Omen. 30 new highs today vs. 99 last Thursday. We're in the ballpark.
Re: May expiration puts, the operators could be holding a lot of them by this time. They were very cheap around 1170.
I may change my tune if tomorrow is not a bearish reversal, but I plan to stick through the day at least.
P.S. A similar candlestick pattern to today's occurred before the final bottom in early July '09.
Agreed….
The dollar put in a bearish reversal candle today, and the euro put in a bullish reversal candle too. This means a rally in the market could happen, and should happen. How far up is the question? Will it take out the 1150 area, and end the downturn?
I don't know yet, but something doesn't seem right about the market only having that one major sell off day last Thursday and not having a re-test day. Most of the time, there is a second leg down, that takes out the first legs' low. It could wait until opx is over I guess, and then sell off hard?
I took the afternoon off, figuring to come back to some very nice numbers, and was disturbed to find not only my morning gains wiped out, but a loss for the day!
Things don't look so bad, though. You can drive a truck through the MACD curves, VIX and put/call ratios are poised for a comeback. On my principal (well, only these days) short vehicle, SDS, volume was largely upside, i.e., downside for the market.
Hey, if we have a rally in the morning followed by a sharp decline, we could have a Hindenburg Omen. 30 new highs today vs. 99 last Thursday. We're in the ballpark.
Re: May expiration puts, the operators could be holding a lot of them by this time. They were very cheap around 1170.
I may change my tune if tomorrow is not a bearish reversal, but I plan to stick through the day at least.
Perhaps (only perhaps) Europe may do something about the Euro.
a 200pip move would cause the stocks to rally.
This is what Kathy Lien has to say: “This evening, the Eurogroup has another opportunity to support the euro. Finance Ministers in the euro area is meeting in Brussels to discuss the market’s reaction to their rescue package, developments in Greece, Spain and Portugal’s accelerated fiscal programs and the euro. Luxembourg Prime Minister Junker said the euro will be “intensively discussed by ministers” and perhaps this is his way of warning us that the discussions could turn into action. The only reason why the EUR/USD has stabilized today is because of the upcoming event risks and more specifically, the possibility of another sensational announcement from European policymakers. Therefore the answer to the second question of what investors should do going forward is to brace for a short squeeze. If policymakers decide to verbally or physically intervene in the euro, the currency could see an aggressive rally to the scale of a few hundred pips.”
Like I said, I'm still short… but I lighten up a little today. If it crashes tomorrow, on the next day… I'll be lovin' it!
Let's not forget China. Down 5% yesterday What will it do tonight? Not open yet. and close to a key level according to McHugh (2,500) could “crash” if gets below 2,500. Don't bet your house on it.
Let's just hope that they aren't able to pin the market to the 115 spy level this Friday, as that would really hurt my positions.
Yeah… I'm with you Ben, but I'm still kicking myself for not taking some profit's today, when we hit 111.77 (almost gap fill at 111.30 from last Friday). I seen the bottoming candle form, but I just thought we would go back up and roll back down again in the EOD.
You win some, you lose some…. it's the story of my life.
Great post Red …. love how you tie the charts together 🙂