TNA was a likely sell for today, and was up 0.55% today. The likely sell is being carried over for tomorrow. The particular candlestick formation before today – Bearish Three Inside Down Formation – was considered highly reliable. The buy price was $55.69 & the close today was $56.93, up 2.2% since the buy. There is more to it than this, but basically, If TNA falls below $56.93, it’s considered a sell. If it stays above $56.93, it’s not a sell.
TZA was a likely buy for today, and was down 0.5% today. The likely buy is being carried over for tomorrow. The particular candlestick formation before today – Bullish Three Inside Up Formation – was considered highly reliable. There is more to it than this, but basically, If TZA rises above $6.10, it’s considered a BUY. If it stays below $6.10, it’s not a buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to: SCO (-2x Oil) DTO (-3x oil) ERY (-3x energy) SPXU (-3x $SPX) DXD (-2x DOW30) DZZ (-2x Gold)
The list to avoid: DRN(3x RE) GLD (gold) UGL (2x Gold) SLV(silver) USO(oil) UCO(2x Oil) ERX(3x energy) GOOG
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow: IYR(1x RE) URE(2x RE) AAPL AMZN GS EWG(Germany) EWQ(France) EWU(England) EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible (and likely) buys tomorrow: DRI RWM (-1x $RUT) TWM (-2x $RUT) TZA (-3x $RUT) SRS (-2x RE) DRV (-3x RE)
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow : UUP(US Dollar) FAZ (-3x Financials) EPV (-2x Europe) QID (-2x QQQQ)
The following are possible (and likely) sells tomorrow: IWM (1x $RUT) UWM (2x $RUT) TNA (3x $RUT) DIA SPY QQQQ QLD (2x QQQQ)
Today was slightly less Bearish than yesterday. Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possible buy of TZA, Possible sell of TNA
Sundancer – can you explain what you mean by terminal de-leverage point …
basically you are saying that they i.e. operators / MM bought spy lower on last friday and today and sold at the de-lever tick of 111.77 … ie. they dumped at 111.77 – sorry but i think I am confused …
attention to detail is imperative 5.7.2010 was the trading day before 5.10.2010 pre-market… LOL Where it says pre-market last it shows 115.72
The operators dropped a clue @ the end of the day Had it not been for the late day rally $SPX would have had 3 consecutive lower closes than opens
This will help give some more clues 1219.8 Local Min Value -3.14% 1181.50 -6.28% 1143.20 -9.42% 1104.89 -12.56% 1066.59 (note the 5.6.2010 came @ 1065.79)
From last fridays close 1135.68 Local Min Value -3.14% 1100.02 -6.28% 1064.36 -9.42% 1028.70 -12.56% 993.04
this de-lever tick was est. on 5.10.2010 so I'm not sure why you're thinking of 5.7
de-lever tick are from where the operators dump inventory, that's very critical that you understand that
After the 20 pt. afternoon ramp the VST operator is now net neutral All the inventory the operator absorbed on friday & then the lower low today allowed the operator to lower his cost avg. knowing the terminal de-leverage pt. was 118.00 so from 15:24-15:57 guess what inventory the suckers were buying?
Not sure I follow you that one? Yes, we hit 111.77 as the low today, but on May 7th the market went did go below 111.80 and above it. So what does that mean for the rest of the week?
I should have pointed this out intra-day to folks Remember this de-lever tick from 5.10.2010 Pre-Market http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45947… Check the low on the SPY today (111.77)
Folks the script is already written, don't bet against the Sun not rising in the morning.
TNA opened up 2.0%, and the opening gap was filled. TNA was up 4.4% at it’s high, and closed up 0.7%.
An earlier gap from $58.98 to $60.04 was trimmed a bit and now is from $59.03 to $60.04
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA. AmericanBulls had TNA with a possible sell today, and TNA closed up, so TNA was not sold. The TNA buy was at $55.66. TNA closed at $56.92, up 2.2% from the buy.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible buy, and TZA closed down, so TZA was not bought. Will have to wait and see how AmericanBulls treats these two for tomorrow.
Volume for TNA today was down from yesterday, but above normal.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 2.2% with TNA up 0.7%. ****A divergence**** Bad for TNA
TNA had been down 4 days, up 3, down 2, now up one. Chop. Neutral for TNA.
The low for TNA was from six days ago at $42.29. Today’s low was $52.25, 23% higher. Good for TNA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 55.95 to 58.7 (+2.75) while TNA was up 0.7%. No divergence. Good for TNA.
MACD fastline is below zero and falling. MACD slowline is above zero and falling. Not helpful for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX climbed to the top Bollinger band and fell sharply. MACD both lines are rising. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long tail doji candle that closed below the 50day moving average. MACD appears to be falling. Good for TNA, assuming the long tail represents a reversal upward.
TNA had a higher high & lower low & higher close (good for TNA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market: $ 270 million flowing into the market 2 days ago. $ 2,900 million flowing out of the market yesterday. $ 21 million flowing out of the market today. Neutral for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
It's just a time element for me, as I'm in May puts, and they expire this week. I still see more downside coming, just not sure that it's going to continue tomorrow. Maybe? But I expect a “pause” day… meaning it could go up or down a little, and end up flat.
I'm still short, but did close out the 110's as they are the lowest strike price I have. I still have my most puts in the 112's. We'll see tomorrow I guess. Have a safe trip, and do drop by when you can.
my gut tells me to be bearish just looking at the daily futures ESm chart. short term we're not done to the downside (I think)
The Daily view from Americanbulls
TNA was a likely sell for today, and was up 0.55% today. The likely sell is being carried over for tomorrow. The particular candlestick formation before today – Bearish Three Inside Down Formation – was considered highly reliable. The buy price was $55.69 & the close today was $56.93, up 2.2% since the buy.
There is more to it than this, but basically, If TNA falls below $56.93, it’s considered a sell. If it stays above $56.93, it’s not a sell.
TZA was a likely buy for today, and was down 0.5% today. The likely buy is being carried over for tomorrow. The particular candlestick formation before today – Bullish Three Inside Up Formation – was considered highly reliable.
There is more to it than this, but basically, If TZA rises above $6.10, it’s considered a BUY. If it stays below $6.10, it’s not a buy.
Of the stocks & ETFs I follow, these are to hold on to:
SCO (-2x Oil)
DTO (-3x oil)
ERY (-3x energy)
SPXU (-3x $SPX)
DXD (-2x DOW30)
DZZ (-2x Gold)
The list to avoid:
DRN(3x RE)
GLD (gold)
UGL (2x Gold)
SLV(silver)
USO(oil)
UCO(2x Oil)
ERX(3x energy)
GOOG
The following are possible (but unlikely) buys tomorrow:
IYR(1x RE)
URE(2x RE)
AAPL
AMZN
GS
EWG(Germany)
EWQ(France)
EWU(England)
EWX(emerging mkts)
The following are possible (and likely) buys tomorrow:
DRI
RWM (-1x $RUT)
TWM (-2x $RUT)
TZA (-3x $RUT)
SRS (-2x RE)
DRV (-3x RE)
The following are possible (but unlikely) sells tomorrow :
UUP(US Dollar)
FAZ (-3x Financials)
EPV (-2x Europe)
QID (-2x QQQQ)
The following are possible (and likely) sells tomorrow:
IWM (1x $RUT)
UWM (2x $RUT)
TNA (3x $RUT)
DIA
SPY
QQQQ
QLD (2x QQQQ)
Today was slightly less Bearish than yesterday.
Action for TNA or TZA for tomorrow: Possible buy of TZA, Possible sell of TNA
Sundancer – can you explain what you mean by terminal de-leverage point …
basically you are saying that they i.e. operators / MM bought spy lower on last friday and today and sold at the de-lever tick of 111.77 … ie. they dumped at 111.77 – sorry but i think I am confused …
attention to detail is imperative
5.7.2010 was the trading day before 5.10.2010 pre-market… LOL
Where it says pre-market last it shows 115.72
The operators dropped a clue @ the end of the day
Had it not been for the late day rally $SPX would have had 3 consecutive lower closes than opens
This will help give some more clues
1219.8 Local Min Value
-3.14% 1181.50
-6.28% 1143.20
-9.42% 1104.89
-12.56% 1066.59
(note the 5.6.2010 came @ 1065.79)
From last fridays close
1135.68 Local Min Value
-3.14% 1100.02
-6.28% 1064.36
-9.42% 1028.70
-12.56% 993.04
The date on the print says May 7th, 2010… I don't see May 10th anywhere on the screen?
I guess the “suckers” were buying the inventory that was bought by the operators when they tanked the market on Thursday, and trigger all the stops.
But, I'm still confused on what to expect over the next few days? Up, down, sideways? I'm still short, but getting mixed signals on the next few days.
this de-lever tick was est. on 5.10.2010 so I'm not sure why you're thinking of 5.7
de-lever tick are from where the operators dump inventory, that's very critical that you understand that
After the 20 pt. afternoon ramp the VST operator is now net neutral
All the inventory the operator absorbed on friday & then the lower low today allowed the operator to lower his cost avg. knowing the terminal de-leverage pt. was 118.00 so from 15:24-15:57 guess what inventory the suckers were buying?
Not sure I follow you that one? Yes, we hit 111.77 as the low today, but on May 7th the market went did go below 111.80 and above it. So what does that mean for the rest of the week?
I should have pointed this out intra-day to folks
Remember this de-lever tick from 5.10.2010 Pre-Market
http://www.flickr.com/photos/47091634@N04/45947…
Check the low on the SPY today (111.77)
Folks the script is already written, don't bet against the Sun not rising in the morning.
TNA opened up 2.0%, and the opening gap was filled. TNA was up 4.4% at it’s high, and closed up 0.7%.
An earlier gap from $58.98 to $60.04 was trimmed a bit and now is from $59.03 to $60.04
We are now in a New Moon Trade, which tends to favor TZA.
AmericanBulls had TNA with a possible sell today, and TNA closed up, so TNA was not sold. The TNA buy was at $55.66. TNA closed at $56.92, up 2.2% from the buy.
AmericanBulls had TZA with a possible buy, and TZA closed down, so TZA was not bought.
Will have to wait and see how AmericanBulls treats these two for tomorrow.
Volume for TNA today was down from yesterday, but above normal.
$RVX (VIX for $RUT) closed up 2.2% with TNA up 0.7%. ****A divergence**** Bad for TNA
TNA had been down 4 days, up 3, down 2, now up one. Chop. Neutral for TNA.
The low for TNA was from six days ago at $42.29. Today’s low was $52.25, 23% higher. Good for TNA.
Today, Ultimate Oscillator for TNA rose from 55.95 to 58.7 (+2.75) while TNA was up 0.7%. No divergence. Good for TNA.
MACD fastline is below zero and falling. MACD slowline is above zero and falling. Not helpful for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RVX (VIX for $RUT): Today, $RVX climbed to the top Bollinger band and fell sharply. MACD both lines are rising. Good for TNA.
Bollinger Bands for $RUT: Today, $RUT had a long tail doji candle that closed below the 50day moving average. MACD appears to be falling. Good for TNA, assuming the long tail represents a reversal upward.
TNA had a higher high & lower low & higher close (good for TNA)
Money flow for the Total Stock Market:
$ 270 million flowing into the market 2 days ago.
$ 2,900 million flowing out of the market yesterday.
$ 21 million flowing out of the market today.
Neutral for TNA.
I will post the AmericanBulls candlestick interpretation a bit later.
Overall, Good for TNA for tomorrow.
It's just a time element for me, as I'm in May puts, and they expire this week. I still see more downside coming, just not sure that it's going to continue tomorrow. Maybe? But I expect a “pause” day… meaning it could go up or down a little, and end up flat.
I'm still short, but did close out the 110's as they are the lowest strike price I have. I still have my most puts in the 112's. We'll see tomorrow I guess. Have a safe trip, and do drop by when you can.